To pay or not to pay...

[Bazrat]

1 minute ago, Selbourne said:

I agree. I’ve said before that I think it’s extremely naive of so many people making the assumption that reduced capacity automatically means those in inside cabins will be upgraded and that it makes far more sense commercially to just cancel the bookings of those in inside cabins. Also, how would those who booked and paid for a balcony cabin feel if everyone who paid for an inside was upgraded to one free of charge. There aren’t enough suites to upgrade all of those passengers. Finally, those living in hope of these automatic upgrades must be confident that there will be tons of empty balcony cabins available for this huge act of generosity by P&O. If the Carnival press release is to be believed, there aren’t going to be many left. But, of course, P&O are renowned for their generosity to customers, so I might be wrong 😉

I think they will cancel the inside cabins and make the corridors one way system,that way you can social distance and they will make the buffet non self service which would not be a problem for us.

[Mysticalmother]

Rather than offer free upgrades from inside cabins ( can’t see that happening at all inthe current climate)  I would suggest that they might dangle a carrot....offer people with inside cabins the chance to upgrade for a Fee.... with the alternative being their Booking is cancelled. Win win for the cruise line....? All subject to availability of course....

 

[No pager thank you]

6 minutes ago, Mysticalmother said:

Rather than offer free upgrades from inside cabins ( can’t see that happening at all inthe current climate)  I would suggest that they might dangle a carrot....offer people with inside cabins the chance to upgrade for a Fee.... with the alternative being their Booking is cancelled. Win win for the cruise line....? All subject to availability of course....

 

Yes, I have speculated on this previously as I think that it is a possible outcome.

 

If the "fee" was to book the current price of the balcony, as an upgrade from the ocean view or inside cabin respectively, then this may well put a lot of people off.  However, say there are 100 balcony cabins available and 300-400 excess inside bookings, plus any displaced ocean view bookings, then there is always a risk that too many say yes even on a low hit rate.

 

In these circumstances, the options would be to restrict to current availability and so first come first served, or, if P&O are feeling particularly ungenerous, cancel the bookings of the passengers with the balcony bookings who perhaps had made their booking at pre-registration and have loyalty discounts.  This would be controversial.

 

Personally, although it may be perceived to be fair to cancel the insides, you do wonder whether this will be seen as being worth the PR hit, based on the possibility that the cruises could then sail too under-occupied and so this becomes net negative for cash flow.

 

I am not taken with Selbourne's point around what would the balcony passengers think and it's not necessarily naive to suggest a range of possibilities are at play.  It must be considered that the concept of "free" upgrades is relatively common in other regards, and the bug bear of "well I paid £1000 less than you for my cruise," is a typical refrain, or, as discussed elsewhere, a point of silence in dinner conversation.

 

I don't think that there is much evidence yet to suggest that any booking is safe when it comes to a restart, based on cabins, balcony or otherwise.  Passenger demographic could also be used, if it is all about safety as we are led to believe.

[molecrochip]

MSC has upgraded their inside and outside passengers to balcony level and given balcony level additional OBS to compensate. Do remember that Ts and Cs allow upgrades at P&O discretion.

 

I'm not suggesting that this will happen for months, just the initial cruises.. possibly. If my suspicion is correct then capacity has been taken off sale to accomodate.

[AndyMichelle]

54 minutes ago, Bazrat said:

I think they will cancel the inside cabins and make the corridors one way system,that way you can social distance and they will make the buffet non self service which would not be a problem for us.

I would rather be served my food, even in a buffet situation. 

That would eliminate the 'bun sniffers'... 

I think this could be something that sticks, even in carvery's etc. Come to think of it, why was the British public ever allowed to pick up food? 

Andy 

[terrierjohn]

37 minutes ago, Mysticalmother said:

Rather than offer free upgrades from inside cabins ( can’t see that happening at all inthe current climate)  I would suggest that they might dangle a carrot....offer people with inside cabins the chance to upgrade for a Fee.... with the alternative being their Booking is cancelled. Win win for the cruise line....? All subject to availability of course....

 

Sounds as though you should a Carnival senior manager.

[molecrochip]

23 hours ago, No pager thank you said:

Next week marks the start of the period where customers will be forced in to making the choice as to whether to cancel / transfer their 15th October cruise, or to proceed to make a full balance payment.

 

I understand that many on this forum are skeptical about cruise travel prior to a vaccine being available, or, at very least the EU CLIA guidance restrictions being withdrawn to protect the holiday experience.  This is a personal choice.

 

However, I would be grateful for your opinions on what you think broader customer sentiment will be, for instance is it more:

 

1) The "opening up" inspired confidence that cruises might still depart, therefore pay the balance and look forward to the holiday? OR,

 

2) Has the rouse around FCCs, poor experience around refunds spread widely enough in to customer knowledge base; therefore do not give P&O any more money on the promise of a holiday voucher?

 

I find public perception, beyond anger over refunds, hard to read on social media.  Hard to know for certain of course, but what does your instinct tell you about how others, in general, read the situation?

 

Thank you in advance.

Going on a cruise is no more risky than going to a restaurant / bar as Boris encourages us to do in August. Social distancing likely to apply like on land. Theatres will be open with restricted seating.

 

Your risk is in ports of call.

[cruisenewbie1976]

13 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

MSC has upgraded their inside and outside passengers to balcony level and given balcony level additional OBS to compensate. Do remember that Ts and Cs allow upgrades at P&O discretion.

 

I'm not suggesting that this will happen for months, just the initial cruises.. possibly. If my suspicion is correct then capacity has been taken off sale to accomodate.

I've seen a few people on Facebook say that they've had emails from p&o, asking if they want to transfer or cancel their post 15th October cruises. So are they doing this to try and manage the reduced capacity? 

[No pager thank you]

11 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

MSC has upgraded their inside and outside passengers to balcony level and given balcony level additional OBS to compensate. Do remember that Ts and Cs allow upgrades at P&O discretion.

 

I'm not suggesting that this will happen for months, just the initial cruises.. possibly. If my suspicion is correct then capacity has been taken off sale to accomodate.

That would seem to be a good solution and, as you say, might explain why the cost of new bookings for balconies is particularly high at the moment.  They could go via the fee route or others, but there would be collateral damage to consider in terms of PR.

 

Yes, the free P&O upgrade fairy has visited us a couple of times before, most sparingly, and sometimes a tad stingily. 

 

I remember once being upgraded from a PC to a PB grade cabin - absolutely no difference and in my view a slightly worse pick, but then never look a gift horse in the mouth! 

 

I have been upgraded to a balcony once before (and have paid for the privilege on other occasions).

[wowzz]

So, if you were in charge of revenue management for the "new" 7 day cruises at 50% capacity,  what would you do?

Just sell balcony cabins and suites, and leave all other cabins empty? 

[Mysticalmother]

6 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Sounds as though you should a Carnival senior manager.

They couldn’t afford me John....😂😂😂

[molecrochip]

2 minutes ago, wowzz said:

So, if you were in charge of revenue management for the "new" 7 day cruises at 50% capacity,  what would you do?

Just sell balcony cabins and suites, and leave all other cabins empty? 

Yes. 

 

For the time being.

[Mysticalmother]

Of course, if the FCO still say over 70s should not cruise....problem solved....! 

[Selbourne]

24 minutes ago, No pager thank you said:

Yes, I have speculated on this previously as I think that it is a possible outcome.

 

If the "fee" was to book the current price of the balcony, as an upgrade from the ocean view or inside cabin respectively, then this may well put a lot of people off.  However, say there are 100 balcony cabins available and 300-400 excess inside bookings, plus any displaced ocean view bookings, then there is always a risk that too many say yes even on a low hit rate.

 

In these circumstances, the options would be to restrict to current availability and so first come first served, or, if P&O are feeling particularly ungenerous, cancel the bookings of the passengers with the balcony bookings who perhaps had made their booking at pre-registration and have loyalty discounts.  This would be controversial.

 

Personally, although it may be perceived to be fair to cancel the insides, you do wonder whether this will be seen as being worth the PR hit, based on the possibility that the cruises could then sail too under-occupied and so this becomes net negative for cash flow.

 

I am not taken with Selbourne's point around what would the balcony passengers think and it's not necessarily naive to suggest a range of possibilities are at play.  It must be considered that the concept of "free" upgrades is relatively common in other regards, and the bug bear of "well I paid £1000 less than you for my cruise," is a typical refrain, or, as discussed elsewhere, a point of silence in dinner conversation.

 

I don't think that there is much evidence yet to suggest that any booking is safe when it comes to a restart, based on cabins, balcony or otherwise.  Passenger demographic could also be used, if it is all about safety as we are led to believe.

I really think you are ‘over thinking’ this and potentially missing a major stumbling point in the argument - that many people who have previously booked inside cabins pre Covid-19 are now booking balcony cabins for fear of confinement. I simply don’t see vast numbers of ‘surplus’ balcony cabins being available to magically upgrade all those who booked inside cabins, especially when P&O are stating that future bookings are at record levels! 

[molecrochip]

2 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Yes. 

 

For the time being.

I'd also reduce the cost slightly. This encourages bookings and limits my liability is they have to cancel.

[No pager thank you]

3 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Going on a cruise is no more risky than going to a restaurant / bar as Boris encourages us to do in August. Social distancing likely to apply like on land. Theatres will be open with restricted seating.

 

Your risk is in ports of call.

Fair points.  If an outbreak does occur, however introduced, then any ship could become a transmission vector, in the same way as a plane, hotel, restaurant or bar.

 

I should say, if I can go at Christmas, I'm going; that's my choice, but I do think that many will have voted with their feet, based on fear or their perceptions of the company.  I'd just rather know, like everyone else, if my choice to go will be available or not before I have to pay another £4k or so. 

 

It's the thought of waiting months for a refund that puts me off, plus having to find another similar sized pot to pay for another Christmas holiday in the meantime, if that makes sense.  Don't want to stay home this Christmas if I can avoid it.  If that is what's safe, fair enough though.

[Selbourne]

8 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Going on a cruise is no more risky than going to a restaurant / bar as Boris encourages us to do in August. Social distancing likely to apply like on land. Theatres will be open with restricted seating.

 

Your risk is in ports of call.

Your insight into the industry and, most recently, Oceana, is much appreciated, but I fear that your assertion that a cruise is no more risky than going to a restaurant is wide of the mark. When going to a restaurant you are not subject to embarkation, disembarkation, tenders, lifts, vast main dining rooms with shared tables, narrow corridors, theatres, cabins with recirculating air conditioning etc etc - all factors that are now known to spread the virus and the reason why FCO advice says that cruise travel is to be avoided. 

[terrierjohn]

13 minutes ago, wowzz said:

So, if you were in charge of revenue management for the "new" 7 day cruises at 50% capacity,  what would you do?

Just sell balcony cabins and suites, and leave all other cabins empty? 

Probably, but I would order a tin hat!

[AndyMichelle]

2 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Your insight into the industry and, most recently, Oceana, is much appreciated, but I fear that your assertion that a cruise is no more risky than going to a restaurant is wide of the mark. When going to a restaurant you are not subject to embarkation, disembarkation, tenders, lifts, vast main dining rooms with shared tables, narrow corridors, theatres, cabins with recirculating air conditioning etc etc - all factors that are now known to spread the virus and the reason why FCO advice says that cruise travel is to be avoided. 

I think from an industry perspective, it is only natural to spread that word. 

If you were involved in any industry, would you say 'don't come here'.. 

Funnily enough, I think embarkation etc is the easiest resolved of the problems, just needs better management and more time. 

Andy 

[Selbourne]

6 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

I think from an industry perspective, it is only natural to spread that word. 

If you were involved in any industry, would you say 'don't come here'.. 

Funnily enough, I think embarkation etc is the easiest resolved of the problems, just needs better management and more time. 

Andy 

That had crossed my mind Andy, and I guess I would be protective of my industry too, but I’m not sure that I’d go so far as to contradict FCO advice and scientific evidence in attempting to do so!

[molecrochip]

4 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Your insight into the industry and, most recently, Oceana, is much appreciated, but I fear that your assertion that a cruise is no more risky than going to a restaurant is wide of the mark. When going to a restaurant you are not subject to embarkation, disembarkation, tenders, lifts, vast main dining rooms with shared tables, narrow corridors, theatres, cabins with recirculating air conditioning etc etc - all factors that are now known to spread the virus and the reason why FCO advice says that cruise travel is to be avoided. 

Yesterday Carnival confirmed that they incidence of Covid was no worse than the industry (and hotel) average. It was just largely limited to four ships and got really bad press. Work is being done to make sure that air conditioning is pulling in almost 100% fresh air and using improved filters. This is better than an average hotel/restaurant that recycle up to 20% air.

 

The situation on Diamond wasn't largely due to person to person infection, it was largely caused by poor quarantine once docked in Japan. They did not isolate infected individuals. They didn't create separate teams serving infected cabins/unaffected cabins. This was all under direction of the Japanese authorities.

 

Ironically, if you look at the David Abel videos, he had cruise cough due to the lack of humidity in the cabin. But he didnt have Covid. To cure cruise cough he placed a wet towel in front of the air con. This appears to have taken tiny Covid droplets and attached them to larger water droplets. It then made it easier to catch/inhale. He then got Covid. That said, the risk of Covid being transferred via room service was still higher than the air conditioning.

 

Compare to the Grand Princess. 24 people got Covid. They were isolated. It was not spread. Correctly, the cruise was abandoned and every was quarantined as required at that stage of the pandemic.

 

A lot has been learnt but the cruise industry remains the media punch bag. 

[molecrochip]

Just now, Selbourne said:

That had crossed my mind Andy, and I guess I would be protective of my industry too, but I’m not sure that I’d go so far as to contradict FCO advice and scientific evidence in attempting to do so!

I have no desire to contradict their advice.

 

But the FCO won't change their advice until everything is in place to bring the risk level down to that of pubs/restaurants/air travel. I understand the work going on to achieve this and 100% believe that Carnival won't restart until they are in that position.

 

The FCO said don't travel unless absolutely necessary in April, May, June and then changed in July. That was not an overnight change. They had been convinced that the changes necessary had been made. By October, I believe that advice will change for cruises. That doesn't need to be announced now. What needed to be announced was that cruising wasn't including in the general relaxation of FCO advice.

[terrierjohn]

14 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Your insight into the industry and, most recently, Oceana, is much appreciated, but I fear that your assertion that a cruise is no more risky than going to a restaurant is wide of the mark. When going to a restaurant you are not subject to embarkation, disembarkation, tenders, lifts, vast main dining rooms with shared tables, narrow corridors, theatres, cabins with recirculating air conditioning etc etc - all factors that are now known to spread the virus and the reason why FCO advice says that cruise travel is to be avoided. 

I tend to agree with Moley on this, there will need to be new social distancing measures in order for cruising to operate safely, but in general movement around the ship is rarely crowded.  There will need to be changes in the way venues empty, possibly leaving by row, rather than the current free for all.  Similarly busy periods for lifts will need to be managed, but we wheelchair users have been saying this for years.

I never think anything is insurmountable, although maybe keeping Huddersfield Town in the Championship is going to prove me wrong.

[Selbourne]

3 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Yesterday Carnival confirmed that they incidence of Covid was no worse than the industry (and hotel) average. It was just largely limited to four ships and got really bad press. Work is being done to make sure that air conditioning is pulling in almost 100% fresh air and using improved filters. This is better than an average hotel/restaurant that recycle up to 20% air.

 

The situation on Diamond wasn't largely due to person to person infection, it was largely caused by poor quarantine once docked in Japan. They did not isolate infected individuals. They didn't create separate teams serving infected cabins/unaffected cabins. This was all under direction of the Japanese authorities.

 

Ironically, if you look at the David Abel videos, he had cruise cough due to the lack of humidity in the cabin. But he didnt have Covid. To cure cruise cough he placed a wet towel in front of the air con. This appears to have taken tiny Covid droplets and attached them to larger water droplets. It then made it easier to catch/inhale. He then got Covid. That said, the risk of Covid being transferred via room service was still higher than the air conditioning.

 

Compare to the Grand Princess. 24 people got Covid. They were isolated. It was not spread. Correctly, the cruise was abandoned and every was quarantined as required at that stage of the pandemic.

 

A lot has been learnt but the cruise industry remains the media punch bag. 

That’s interesting and lessons will of course have been learned.  I don’t dispute the huge efforts being made to lessen the risks, but sadly the inherent design of cruise ships and nature of cruising as a mass transit / mass congregational type of activity conspire to create risks that are unique, hence the fact that cruising remains suspended and will almost certainly be the last activity to return to anything remotely approaching normal. I take no pleasure in saying this BTW, but it’s just an inevitability.

[AnnieC]

24 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

 

 

Ironically, if you look at the David Abel videos, he had cruise cough due to the lack of humidity in the cabin. But he didnt have Covid. To cure cruise cough he placed a wet towel in front of the air con. This appears to have taken tiny Covid droplets and attached them to larger water droplets. It then made it easier to catch/inhale. He then got Covid. That said, the risk of Covid being transferred via room service was still higher than the air conditioning.

 

 

I followed the David Abel saga and he blamed the cough on the dry air of the cabin. However, once tested he was positive, and, by the time he was admitted to hospital, had pneumonia. That would seem to indicate that he misdiagnosed himself...

 

Love your posts, and thank you so much for the information you share with us all.