Princess should think twice about Alaska cruises in 2021

[bubbapuck]

1 hour ago, cruising deacon said:

I read in some other post last week that Princess was going to have a 48 hour sale on Alaska cruises in the 2021 season starting on August 11.  Either it didn't happen, or their SALE PRICES are higher than the last time I checked on an Alaska cruise.

I have been monitoring all Alaska cruise for a while now. My cruise did not go down as a part of the sale that started today. Not sure what Alaska cruise is affected. I only have been monitoring Alaska cruises longer than 9 days. 

[npcl]

14 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I think much of the public would be shocked if they knew the efficacy of many common vaccines.  But a 50% efficacy rate is not unusual.  In fact, in most years the basic flu vaccine is likely about 50% effective.  The first Shingles vaccine (and that darn shot cost me about $300) was only about 50% effective.  The first pneumonia vaccine (primarily given to seniors) was only about 50% effective.    Very few vaccines are more then 90% effective (I think the MMR Vaccine is about the most effective).

 

So why get a shot that is only 50% effective?  I once went to a lecture on the subject and it was quite interesting.  Suffice it to say that a vaccine that works about half the time would ultimately reduce a disease by far more then 50%.  It gets into more complex math about R Naught (a measure of contagion) and some other formulas.   But suffice it to say if 50% of the passengers on a ship had immunity, the odds of the spread of that disease would be diminished by more then 50%.  Go figure.

 

Your comment about not cruising is interesting.   There are few things in life that come without risk.  Many of life's decisions are simply a matter of risk/benefit and your own risk tolerance.  There are folks who will not go on cruises because they will not take the risk of flying to a port.  There are others who do not go on ships because they are concerned about the risk of the ship sinking.  DW and I travel all over the world (on and off cruises) and generally do our own thing on land (we do not like tours).  Many others tell us they do not like taking the "risk" of doing anything on their own.    So to answer your specific question, DW and I would certainly cruise if everyone were vaccinated with a vaccine that was 70% effective.  As to 50%, we might be willing to do that on a more spacious ship like with Seabourn but might have issues with a crowded mass market vessel.  Again, it comes down to one's own risk tolerance.

 

Hank

Keep in mind that the effectiveness of the flu vaccine is limited because of the various strains in circulation.  The effectiveness depends upon how well the strains for that year are selected.  Get it right and the effectiveness is pretty good, about 60%, pick poorly and the effectiveness is poor about 40%. The effectiveness against a single strain that is included is quite good, if someone were to encounter that exact strain the protection is  actually very good.  The problem is that there are so many variations of the flu that one seldom encounters the exact same strains that are in the flu vaccine for that year.  So the inclusions are more for major strain class A H1N1, A H3N2, B plus maybe another one or two if a particular strain is observed in  the other hemisphere during their flu season.

 

For example if one looks at the selection for a year you get

 

The composition of virus vaccines for use in the United States for the 2019–2020 Northern Hemisphere influenza season recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on March 22, 2019, was:

an A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus

an A/Kansas/14/2017 (H3N2)-like virus

a B/Colorado/06/2017-like virus (B/Victoria lineage)

The committee also recommended that quadrivalent influenza vaccines contain the above three strains and the following additional B strain:

a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus (B/Yamagata lineage)

 

Most of the routine childhood vaccines have effectiveness in the range of 85% to 95% (Measles around 99%).

 

For COVID there is the advantage that all of the strains have the same spike elements and not have the different strain issues like the flu.  The issue with efficacy with COVID is largely because so little is known about it and the exact nature of the infection and the immune system.  As a result the vaccines are throwing a target (components of the spike) at the immune system and hoping it triggers an appropriate mechanism.  Over the next year or two a great deal of work will be done on the immune response area and the understanding of the mechanisms will grow and much better designs can be developed, if this first generation approaches are not sufficiently effective.

[Hlitner]

20 minutes ago, npcl said:

Keep in mind that the effectiveness of the flu vaccine is limited because of the various strains in circulation.  The effectiveness depends upon how well the strains for that year are selected.  Get it right and the effectiveness is pretty good, about 60%, pick poorly and the effectiveness is poor about 40%. The effectiveness against a single strain that is included is quite good, if someone were to encounter that exact strain the protection is  actually very good.  The problem is that there are so many variations of the flu that one seldom encounters the exact same strains that are in the flu vaccine for that year.  So the inclusions are more for major strain class A H1N1, A H3N2, B plus maybe another one or two if a particular strain is observed in  the other hemisphere during their flu season.

 

For example if one looks at the selection for a year you get

 

The composition of virus vaccines for use in the United States for the 2019–2020 Northern Hemisphere influenza season recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on March 22, 2019, was:

an A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus

an A/Kansas/14/2017 (H3N2)-like virus

a B/Colorado/06/2017-like virus (B/Victoria lineage)

The committee also recommended that quadrivalent influenza vaccines contain the above three strains and the following additional B strain:

a B/Phuket/3073/2013-like virus (B/Yamagata lineage)

 

Most of the routine childhood vaccines have effectiveness in the range of 85% to 95% (Measles around 99%).

 

For COVID there is the advantage that all of the strains have the same spike elements and not have the different strain issues like the flu.  The issue with efficacy with COVID is largely because so little is known about it and the exact nature of the infection and the immune system.  As a result the vaccines are throwing a target (components of the spike) at the immune system and hoping it triggers an appropriate mechanism.  Over the next year or two a great deal of work will be done on the immune response area and the understanding of the mechanisms will grow and much better designs can be developed, if this first generation approaches are not sufficiently effective.

LOL am well aware of the strain issues with flu vaccines.  In fact, the efficacy of the vaccines not only depends on including the appropriate strains in the annual formula, but there are also efficacy differences between the vaccines for each different strain.  One CDC lecturer told us that trying to explain the overall efficacy of the flu vaccine is beyond comprehension.  So the norm is to keep it simple...stupid :).  When we read in the paper (or online) that the flu vaccine is only 50% effective that is an oversimplification intended for a general market.   And consider that the efficacy of flu vaccine really varies by age group which is why we now have a more powerful dose for seniors (that sometimes works against fewer strains then the regular dose).  

 

I understand there are now over 150 different COVID vaccine candidates in various stages of testing.  If we were simply playing the odds one would assume that several of those candidates will work and eventually make it to market.  Of course it is also possible that none of these candidates will prove effective.  Since the COVID antibodies seem to have a short life (very unfortunate) we are aware that many researchers are looking at T-Cells (very familiar to those of us who had been involved with HIV/AIDS to find a long term solution.  After 35 years of HIV/AIDS research often centered on T-cells we have exactly zero vaccines :(.  Scary.

 

Hank

[npcl]

Just now, Hlitner said:

LOL am well aware of the strain issues with flu vaccines.  In fact, the efficacy of the vaccines not only depends on including the appropriate strains in the annual formula, but there are also efficacy differences between the vaccines for each different strain.  One CDC lecturer told us that trying to explain the overall efficacy of the flu vaccine is beyond comprehension.  So the norm is to keep it simple...stupid :).  When we read in the paper (or online) that the flu vaccine is only 50% effective that is an oversimplification intended for a general market.   And consider that the efficacy of flu vaccine really varies by age group which is why we now have a more powerful dose for seniors (that sometimes works against fewer strains then the regular dose).  

 

I understand there are now over 150 different COVID vaccine candidates in various stages of testing.  If we were simply playing the odds one would assume that several of those candidates will work and eventually make it to market.  Of course it is also possible that none of these candidates will prove effective.  Since the COVID antibodies seem to have a short life (very unfortunate) we are aware that many researchers are looking at T-Cells (very familiar to those of us who had been involved with HIV/AIDS to find a long term solution.  After 35 years of HIV/AIDS research often centered on T-cells we have exactly zero vaccines :(.  Scary.

 

Hank

You may be, but I suspect that a number of people reading this may not be as well informed.  Lumping them all in together may result in someone getting an incorrect view of how good or bad vaccines are.  The flu vaccine is a relatively unique case compared to many other vaccines.

[franktown]

My problem with a vaccine being 50% or even 70% is on a cruise ship is it only takes a couple of people testing positive to Covid19 to quarantine the entire cruise ship for 14 days.  I also do not want to be sailing from port to port looking for a country that will let us disembark. 

[Travlin grrl]

On 8/9/2020 at 2:52 PM, memoak said:

If we have a vaccine and the cruise lines require proof of vaccination then we will be cruising in 2021. If not then no cruises 

I agree with you. I think all crew members and passengers will require vaccination before travel on a cruise line. I think most passengers would want the crew member to have one, and vice versa. Otherwise this will keep on happening with the spread. 

[npcl]

5 hours ago, franktown said:

My problem with a vaccine being 50% or even 70% is on a cruise ship is it only takes a couple of people testing positive to Covid19 to quarantine the entire cruise ship for 14 days.  I also do not want to be sailing from port to port looking for a country that will let us disembark. 

That is why I think you will need not only the vaccine, but to also have the case counts relatively low in the population from which the cruise passengers come.  

[caribill]

16 hours ago, cruising deacon said:

I read in some other post last week that Princess was going to have a 48 hour sale on Alaska cruises in the 2021 season starting on August 11.  Either it didn't happen, or their SALE PRICES are higher than the last time I checked on an Alaska cruise.

 

Princess had an online seminar about Alaska. Those viewing that seminar had a 48 hour window (ending Thursday night) to book at the same prices you are seeing but get an extra $50 OBC for the cabin. If booking a cruisetour would also get one $50 credit to use at lodges.

[Linsifer]

14 hours ago, franktown said:

My problem with a vaccine being 50% or even 70% is on a cruise ship is it only takes a couple of people testing positive to Covid19 to quarantine the entire cruise ship for 14 days.  I also do not want to be sailing from port to port looking for a country that will let us disembark. 

That’s my concern, as well.  Once we get on that ship we’re at the mercy of whatever quarantine protocol they mandate if needed.  Same with ports possibly refusing to let us stop.  

Edited August 13, 2020 by Linsifer