CDC's Conditional Sail Order from Oct. 30 - Some details

[PelicanBill]

A lot of questions keep coming up about what it takes to get cruises running again and why haven't we made progress now that we have a vaccine.

 

I am going to post some sections from the CDC order to help understand where the CDC is on cruising and what is required of them... hopefully you can see why this is not easy.

To start, here is the CDC view on the risk of cruises, based on several reports they released during 2020.

 

 

[PelicanBill]

To apply for a Conditional Sailing Certificate (for each ship!) the cruise line must do all this: The application must be made at least 60 days before the intended start of cruises:

 

Must meet all present requirements (“green status”) for commercial transfer of crew at US Ports.

Must meet all requirements for crew and passenger testing, shoreside and onboard (extensive detail is given.)

Must meet all requirements in the framework with changes for onboard operations with social distance, mask use, and cleaning protocols. Must meet requirements for port calls and operations. Must not operate cruises longer than 7 days.  Many requirements related to food services and entertainment changes.

Must submit application to conduct simulation cruise, with implication that all areas of the framework must be in place and ready, including all the crew protection requirements and the required agreements with local authorities, and all the onboard medical testing, facilities, personnel and quarantine capabilities called for in the framework.  Simulation cruise must exercise social distancing and mask use for all crew and passenger functions.

Must successfully complete a simulated cruise (detailed requirements, including voluntary consent of all crew and passengers)

[PelicanBill]

This is the reason we will only see one or two ports operating at first.

 

Must also have noncommercial transportation to disembark and transport all passengers and crew if cruise is terminated and returns to port for a Covid infection event which reaches a threshold (not specified). Not clear if this extends to air travel.

 

[PelicanBill]

So then they can submit the application, 60 days prior, containing:

 

[PelicanBill]

I think a lot of this will fade away when a new order is issued AFTER a majority of Americans have been vaccinated, and it is proved that Covid spread is no longer a serious threat, and mutations have not exceeded the capabilities of the vaccines, and the majority of Americans is enough of us that those that chose not to get vaccinated are not a threat to community spread any longer.

 

That's a lot of things to happen...  and it's why many of us say the cruise lines are in no position to resume cruises before summer, and perhaps fall.

 

[Sand and Seas]

Thanks for posting this information.

 

Has anyone seen CDC's written rationale of why no cruises over 7 days?   

If all boarding can show we are vaccinated and have a negative covid test,  why not a longer cruise?

 

(Just cancelled a 9 day cruise....hoping the next one we have booked will sail)

 

 

[PelicanBill]

51 minutes ago, Sand and Seas said:

Thanks for posting this information.

 

Has anyone seen CDC's written rationale of why no cruises over 7 days?   

If all boarding can show we are vaccinated and have a negative covid test,  why not a longer cruise?

 

(Just cancelled a 9 day cruise....hoping the next one we have booked will sail)

 

 

The entire rationale is in this document and I can't remember reading anything specific about the limit. I think it has to do with a desire for a ship to return to its home port in a short amount of time to handle sick passengers and stop any spread. Knowing 7 days is a popular turnaround, that means no more than 3 days back home in enough time to get critical people to a hospital... without air evacs or emergency stops in foreign ports.

[chengkp75]

The 7 day limit has to do with exposure time, and the CDC feels that the 7 day limit is where the risk of infection due to continued possible exposure takes a exponential turn upwards, so they want to limit the time people are onboard.

[Sand and Seas]

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

The entire rationale is in this document and I can't remember reading anything specific about the limit. I think it has to do with a desire for a ship to return to its home port in a short amount of time to handle sick passengers and stop any spread. Knowing 7 days is a popular turnaround, that means no more than 3 days back home in enough time to get critical people to a hospital... without air evacs or emergency stops in foreign ports.

 

39 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

The 7 day limit has to do with exposure time, and the CDC feels that the 7 day limit is where the risk of infection due to continued possible exposure takes a exponential turn upwards, so they want to limit the time people are onboard.

So it sounds like CDC is assuming that no matter what pre-cruise requirements are,  some infected  people will still board the ship and want to get them back to their homeport (to spread it elsewhere?)   

 

That is a gloomy outlook, but it makes sense.    If I got very sick with any type of illness on a ship I would want to return to a US port.    

[PelicanBill]

13 hours ago, Sand and Seas said:

 

So it sounds like CDC is assuming that no matter what pre-cruise requirements are,  some infected  people will still board the ship and want to get them back to their homeport (to spread it elsewhere?)   

 

That is a gloomy outlook, but it makes sense.    If I got very sick with any type of illness on a ship I would want to return to a US port.    

I think you have it right. The science of testing says it will happen, and in the case of the Seadream in Barbados it was reinforced - exactly what happened!

 

And the "to spread it elsewhere" is a key concern you can see in the CDC's statement of risks.

 

I posted it somewhere else, but there was an inside story of the CDC trying to bring home the people from the Diamond Princess (Japan) had a number of terrible mistakes made. It shows that there are precious few people available who can truly manage an emergency situation like this.  We cannot have a dozen of these happening at once!

 

I think it is clear to see why we are still canceling cruises month to month, and with the news that NCL sent the people they recently onboarded back home (getting home in March or April), it strongly suggests they have no expectation to restart cruising until summer.