CCL Stock Today

[Ptroxx]

1 hour ago, ray98 said:

I'm not so sure about that.  This crippling level of debt that is still bleeding $20 million per day has the ability to take this to a new low.

If covid shut down didn’t bring them to a new low. Then I don’t think anything will.   With how busy cruise ships are at the current time I don’t think we’ll see much lower.   
but hey.  My crystal ball is broken so who really knows. Lol 

[ray98]

17 minutes ago, Ptroxx said:

If covid shut down didn’t bring them to a new low. Then I don’t think anything will.   With how busy cruise ships are at the current time I don’t think we’ll see much lower.   
but hey.  My crystal ball is broken so who really knows. Lol 

Yes....COVID brought them down  but being unable to meet financial obligations is an entirely different game.  The problem today is the $36b in high interest debt they amassed to stay afloat that they have yet to find a way to start decreasing.  That just got magnified last week as it was apparent they needed to raise an additional $3b to cover debt obligations maturing this year.  They were only able to raise $1b borrowed at 10.5% and had to release $1b in common stock further diluting the existing shares.  Carnival is not in good shape....at all.

[Ptroxx]

2 minutes ago, ray98 said:

Yes....COVID brought them down  but being unable to meet financial obligations is an entirely different game.  The problem today is the $36b in high interest debt they amassed to stay afloat that they have yet to find a way to start decreasing.  That just got magnified last week as it was apparent they needed to raise an additional $3b to cover debt obligations maturing this year.  They were only able to raise $1b borrowed at 10.5% and had to release $1b in common stock further diluting the existing shares.  Carnival is not in good shape....at all.

Your crystal ball must be working better than mine.  
Guess only time will tell.  

[BlerkOne]

Not sure why some are so obsessed with Carnival selling a billion dollars in stock. First of all, they filed for that last January. It wasn't a surprise to anyone who follow such things. 

 

Selling stock doesn't increase their debt and some of the proceeds will be used to pay down debt 

 

Carnival has been doing stock buybacks off and on, so the "dilution" of the new stock is not what some think.

[DrSea]

23 hours ago, Ptroxx said:

I picked some up about three weeks ago.  Right around the same price.  
And already made 100.00 on OBC for my cruise on princess this Sunday. Lolol.   So I’m up 100.00. Lolol.   
Dont think it will go much lower covid was it’s bottom and we are there now.  So.   
im waiting for NCL a and RC to go back down as I cruise on them more.   I missed the dip last time.  I have buys set up at their covid bottoms just incase.  Don’t wanna miss those again lol 

What about the economy? I think that may impact stock prices. Many think that we are in a recession or that it is coming. If we hit a recession, then all stocks will plummet some more. 

[Ptroxx]

3 minutes ago, DrSea said:

What about the economy? I think that may impact stock prices. Many think that we are in a recession or that it is coming. If we hit a recession, then all stocks will plummet some more. 

Then you buy more.  It’s gonna come back.  It always does. Lol 

[IntrepidFromDC]

22 hours ago, mz-s said:

Buy on the way up, not the way down.

That saying is wise but not fullproof.  #1, nobody KNOWS what direction a stock is headed. 2# I'll dollar-cost average my way down to as low as $6.00 before giving up. #3, when you buy on the way up, you missed the best buy point(s) and missed some amazing future realized gains - waiting for a buy point as a stock rebounds can be much less profitable than buying the dip.  Let's see where we go from here!

[Badfinger]

50 minutes ago, IntrepidFromDC said:

That saying is wise but not fullproof.  #1, nobody KNOWS what direction a stock is headed. 2# I'll dollar-cost average my way down to as low as $6.00 before giving up. #3, when you buy on the way up, you missed the best buy point(s) and missed some amazing future realized gains - waiting for a buy point as a stock rebounds can be much less profitable than buying the dip.  Let's see where we go from here!

 

2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Not sure why some are so obsessed with Carnival selling a billion dollars in stock. First of all, they filed for that last January. It wasn't a surprise to anyone who follow such things. 

 

Selling stock doesn't increase their debt and some of the proceeds will be used to pay down debt 

 

Carnival has been doing stock buybacks off and on, so the "dilution" of the new stock is not what some think.

 

Paint it how you wish, but it absolutely dilutes earnings per share, which in turns resets the stock price lower.  Have not looked at the numbers in detail because I would never buy a cruise line stock (too many other better stocks to buy), but $1B for a company with about a  $10B market cap (IIRC) is substantial.  Increasing the float by 15% is substantial.  As state above, it is not good.  And with another rate increase today, just think what the financing will be on their next loan.  

[BlerkOne]

6 minutes ago, Badfinger said:

 

 

Paint it how you wish, but it absolutely dilutes earnings per share, which in turns resets the stock price lower.  Have not looked at the numbers in detail because I would never buy a cruise line stock (too many other better stocks to buy), but $1B for a company with about a  $10B market cap (IIRC) is substantial.  Increasing the float by 15% is substantial.  As state above, it is not good.  And with another rate increase today, just think what the financing will be on their next loan.  

If the earnings are a loss, doesn't a lower loss per share look better? What next loan?

 

 

[JT1962]

1 hour ago, Ptroxx said:

Then you buy more.  It’s gonna come back.  It always does. Lol 

Hopefully. That was the philosophy of a friend who worked for General Motors. In 2008 & 2009 he put all of his retirement investment in GM stock because it was a “bargain” and had always come back. He encouraged many friends and family members to buy all they could as well and said they would thank him in a few years. Sadly they lost it all when GM filed bankruptcy. Yes, GM survived as a smaller, leaner company, but the stockholders lost.

Edited July 27, 2022 by JT1962

[DrSea]

8 hours ago, ray98 said:

Yes....COVID brought them down  but being unable to meet financial obligations is an entirely different game.  The problem today is the $36b in high interest debt they amassed to stay afloat that they have yet to find a way to start decreasing.  That just got magnified last week as it was apparent they needed to raise an additional $3b to cover debt obligations maturing this year.  They were only able to raise $1b borrowed at 10.5% and had to release $1b in common stock further diluting the existing shares.  Carnival is not in good shape....at all.

So if they are not able to pay the 1b/3b when the debt obligations mature, what happens? I presume they have to declare bankruptcy, but I am very ignorant of these things. 

[Ptroxx]

Personally I didn’t buy for an investment I got it for free OBC.  I’ve placed a sell on it so I don’t lose if it does go lower.   
and if it goes up. Win.   
smart investing 🤷🤷🤷

[BlerkOne]

26 minutes ago, DrSea said:

So if they are not able to pay the 1b/3b when the debt obligations mature, what happens? I presume they have to declare bankruptcy, but I am very ignorant of these things. 

They won't. They have been quite successful at pushing debt out to be more manageable. If push come to shove, the institutions that are already owed billions can't afford to not loan Carnival more.

[mz-s]

1 hour ago, IntrepidFromDC said:

That saying is wise but not fullproof.  #1, nobody KNOWS what direction a stock is headed. 2# I'll dollar-cost average my way down to as low as $6.00 before giving up. #3, when you buy on the way up, you missed the best buy point(s) and missed some amazing future realized gains - waiting for a buy point as a stock rebounds can be much less profitable than buying the dip.  Let's see where we go from here!

 

Yes nobody knows that is certainly true - but Ray Charles can look at the stock right now and tell it ain't going back up any time soon.

[tidecat]

Royal Caribbean is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow (July 28, 10:00 AM Eastern), it will be interesting to see if CCL and NCLH "fly in formation".

[DrSea]

Q2 GDP report will be released tomorrow. I wonder if we will hit the technical definition of a recession

[AmazedByCruising]

8 hours ago, ray98 said:

They were only able to raise $1b borrowed at 10.5% and had to release $1b in common stock further diluting the existing shares.  Carnival is not in good shape....at all.

 

Theoretically, can they create more stock endlessly (even when the stock price drops to pennies) and by doing so keep afloat forever?

 

I never understood what's wrong with diluting. Of course the pie has to be shared with more people, but the pie has become bigger, and if the CCL accountants did it right, more per share than it was before. For instance I wouldn't mind my shares in my small company being diluted if a huge investor came along, but obviously the investor must add more to the balance/share than what my current shares are worth.

 

10.5% isn't cheap, but it's also almost the same as current inflation plus a few percent extra. Every year the debt is worth 8-9% less.

 

The intrinsic value of CCL, the ships, may be deprecated according to a certain schedule (they need maintenance, they need more dry docks after 15 years, they get old fashioned, etc). But with such inflation, after 5 years there's only halve the debt left (in actual value), while fares and martinis will reflect the dollar/euro/renminbi value of 2027. The ship itself is still the ship, CCL basically hedged against inflation by owning (and not renting or leasing or whatever) the ships.

 

If all else fails, Holland is frantically trying to house refugees, and has chartered MS Volendam, looking for 2 more ships as a last resort because there aren't enough houses. At about 1000 new refugees/week and a complete stand still in building for various reasons, and an already huge shortage of housing (think 30 year olds living with their parents, divorced people sleeping in cars), tiny Holland alone might be tempted to buy CCL altogether at the current price.

 

Even if CDC forbids cruises altogether tomorrow, the ships are still off the shelf hotels that can be deployed anywhere in the world. For refugees, as a hospital, for quarantine, for the Olympics, for conventions, you name it. There aren't many suppliers who can offer that, and if you'd want to enter that market I believe all yards will tell you they don't have the time, capacity and not even the steel to build your ship. CCL can easily house more than 200k people for 50k in market cap/person using their own ships. Not many companies can offer that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ano]

3 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

If the earnings are a loss, doesn't a lower loss per share look better? 

No.

[DrSea]

1 hour ago, AmazedByCruising said:

 

Theoretically, can they create more stock endlessly (even when the stock price drops to pennies) and by doing so keep afloat forever?

 

I never understood what's wrong with diluting. Of course the pie has to be shared with more people, but the pie has become bigger, and if the CCL accountants did it right, more per share than it was before. For instance I wouldn't mind my shares in my small company being diluted if a huge investor came along, but obviously the investor must add more to the balance/share than what my current shares are worth.

 

10.5% isn't cheap, but it's also almost the same as current inflation plus a few percent extra. Every year the debt is worth 8-9% less.

 

The intrinsic value of CCL, the ships, may be deprecated according to a certain schedule (they need maintenance, they need more dry docks after 15 years, they get old fashioned, etc). But with such inflation, after 5 years there's only halve the debt left (in actual value), while fares and martinis will reflect the dollar/euro/renminbi value of 2027. The ship itself is still the ship, CCL basically hedged against inflation by owning (and not renting or leasing or whatever) the ships.

 

If all else fails, Holland is frantically trying to house refugees, and has chartered MS Volendam, looking for 2 more ships as a last resort because there aren't enough houses. At about 1000 new refugees/week and a complete stand still in building for various reasons, and an already huge shortage of housing (think 30 year olds living with their parents, divorced people sleeping in cars), tiny Holland alone might be tempted to buy CCL altogether at the current price.

 

Even if CDC forbids cruises altogether tomorrow, the ships are still off the shelf hotels that can be deployed anywhere in the world. For refugees, as a hospital, for quarantine, for the Olympics, for conventions, you name it. There aren't many suppliers who can offer that, and if you'd want to enter that market I believe all yards will tell you they don't have the time, capacity and not even the steel to build your ship. CCL can easily house more than 200k people for 50k in market cap/person using their own ships. Not many companies can offer that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I get what you are saying, but just to clarify, cruise ships do not make great hospitals. The electrical wiring can't handle vents, telemetry, etc. There are ships that specifically built for this and the US has like 2 of them floating around. It's like comparing a van to an ambulance. Both can transport patients but one is purpose built for it. 

[tidecat]

I wonder how many charters we'll see related to the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles - it's not like the area doesn't have hotel rooms, although LA is only the sixth largest market by number of hotel rooms at around 99,000. London reportedly had overseas visitors account for 3.86 Million nights during the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics. I suspect Carnival might just want to keep a ship or two tied up at Long Beach and/or San Pedro for the duration of the event

[cruisingguy007]

1 hour ago, ano said:

No.

 

You have to remember that some are viewing this through a lens of "too big to fail". I certainly disagree with this assessment for this particular industry, even the in for a penny, in for a pound connected thinking is a bit too wishful when looking at the further potential risk and numbers. Even though I disagree with this assessment, it explains the mindset. Conventional fiduciary rules/indicators don't apply with a pie in the sky possibilities mindset. You're probably wasting your breath.  

[cruisingguy007]

35 minutes ago, tidecat said:

I wonder how many charters we'll see related to the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles - it's not like the area doesn't have hotel rooms, although LA is only the sixth largest market by number of hotel rooms at around 99,000. London reportedly had overseas visitors account for 3.86 Million nights during the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics. I suspect Carnival might just want to keep a ship or two tied up at Long Beach and/or San Pedro for the duration of the event

 

A shuttle ship running back and forth to San Diego would yield better results and be more lucrative lol. Imagine what it will be like with so many folks flooding in to an area that is already bursting at the seams? Yikes! Hopefully, they use some of the revenue to build a large freeway to bypass LA entirely. The freeways that go through there are already enough to serve just the LA area exclusively. The traffic is already intolerable and they need a way for folks to avoid it that are just passing through en-route to other areas in CA. It's the most stressful traffic trap when traversing the state.   

Edited July 28, 2022 by cruisingguy007

[BlerkOne]

8 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

A shuttle ship running back and forth to San Diego would yield better results and be more lucrative lol. Imagine what it will be like with so many folks flooding in to an area that is already bursting at the seams? Yikes! Hopefully, they use some of the revenue to build a large freeway to bypass LA entirely. The freeways that go through there are already enough to serve just the LA area exclusively. The traffic is already intolerable and they need a way for folks to avoid it that are just passing through en-route to other areas in CA. It's the most stressful traffic trap when traversing the state.   

A shuttle ship that isn't American flagged would be illegal.

[cruisingguy007]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

A shuttle ship that isn't American flagged would be illegal.

 

Obviously. I was being facetious. It would be a nice option if possible, I certainly wouldn't want to be trapped in LA. Heck, the way politics work there, they may still have a mask mandate in 2028. 😁

[AmazedByCruising]

8 hours ago, DrSea said:

I get what you are saying, but just to clarify, cruise ships do not make great hospitals. The electrical wiring can't handle vents, telemetry, etc. There are ships that specifically built for this and the US has like 2 of them floating around. It's like comparing a van to an ambulance. Both can transport patients but one is purpose built for it. 

 

Not sure the ships can't be refitted at relatively low cost if electricity is the problem. The ships generate more electricity for the hotel than for propulsion. Cruise ships and even ferries have been used as hospitals during the pandemic. But hospitals is just one of many uses of a moveable hotel.