Coach passengers testing positive at terminal

[emam]

On 8/27/2021 at 11:04 AM, daiB said:

Well considering the coach travel was totally independent of P&O yes they did well by these passengers.  Remember Eavesway do not work for P&O any more.

From our area it's Intercruisruises/Cruise Connect. I can't see anything on their website about Covid.

[watsonbeau]

Yes where I am it would be CruiseConnect and nothing on their website so have messaged them to ask their protocol.

[picsa]

11 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

Surely no one in their right mind would deliberately try to use false test data.

 

Of course some foolish people would. 

 

But it is irrelevant anyway, since if the LFT wasn't done by a medical professional then the likelihood of a false negative is between 50 to 100%, so this requirement by the coach company is just more 'security theatre'.

[zap99]

26 minutes ago, picsa said:

 

Of course some foolish people would. 

 

But it is irrelevant anyway, since if the LFT wasn't done by a medical professional then the likelihood of a false negative is between 50 to 100%, so this requirement by the coach company is just more 'security theatre'.

BMJ recon the difference between self test and professional is 4.8% at 95% probability with a 1.2sd.. The mean false negative was less than 7%.

[davecttr]

1 hour ago, picsa said:

 

Of course some foolish people would. 

 

But it is irrelevant anyway, since if the LFT wasn't done by a medical professional then the likelihood of a false negative is between 50 to 100%, so this requirement by the coach company is just more 'security theatre'.

Only if you don't follow the instructions which unfortunately is common. When i had my test at the terminal the professional followed exactly the same procedure as I use at home. 2.5cm up each nostril.

[davecttr]

40 minutes ago, zap99 said:

BMJ recon the difference between self test and professional is 4.8% at 95% probability with a 1.2sd.. The mean false negative was less than 7%.

1.2 standard deviation? If you do more than one test does the false negative rate reduce?

 

went to pharmacy this morning for mote test kits, no stock because no deliveries and suggested try a chemist that was closed over the weekend.

 

I want the ones you just stick up your nose anyway.

Edited August 31, 2021 by davecttr

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, picsa said:

 

Of course some foolish people would. 

 

But it is irrelevant anyway, since if the LFT wasn't done by a medical professional then the likelihood of a false negative is between 50 to 100%, so this requirement by the coach company is just more 'security theatre'.

You mentioned those statistics earlier,  but where did you obtain them, and how reliable are they?

[daiB]

12 hours ago, emam said:

From our area it's Intercruisruises/Cruise Connect. I can't see anything on their website about Covid.

The P&O coach option is not in operation for short cruises. Eavesway is running their coaches independently. I think they still run from Washington. There take passengers to all cruise lines.

 

Dai

[picsa]

36 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

You mentioned those statistics earlier,  but where did you obtain them, and how reliable are they?

What is a lateral flow Covid test and how accurate is it? | Coronavirus | The Guardian

 

When it comes to LFTs, the accuracy appears to depend on the make of the test used, whether people have symptoms, and who is conducting the test.

 

For example, one study by researchers at the University of Oxford and Public Health England’s Porton Down lab found the LFTs were more accurate in the hands of skilled scientists, picking up 79% of Covid cases, than self-trained members of the public, who detected 58% of Covid cases.

 

Estimates for these rates vary. However, according to the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), and comparing results against those obtained by PCR testing, the false positive rate for LFTs is fewer than one in 1,000, while the false negative rate could be as high as 50%.

[cockneyjock]

12 hours ago, emam said:

From our area it's Intercruisruises/Cruise Connect. I can't see anything on their website about Covid.

We have booked from Lancaster. Presuming they use Ellinsons coaches they have a video of protocols prior to boarding on their facebook page.

[Son of Anarchy]

47 minutes ago, davecttr said:

1.2 standard deviation? If you do more than one test does the false negative rate reduce?

 

went to pharmacy this morning for mote test kits, no stock because no deliveries and suggested try a chemist that was closed over the weekend.

 

I want the ones you just stick up your nose anyway.

You can order them on-line via the gov.uk website.  A test kit lands on your doormat a couple of days later.

[zap99]

50 minutes ago, davecttr said:

1.2 standard deviation? If you do more than one test does the false negative rate reduce?

 

went to pharmacy this morning for mote test kits, no stock because no deliveries and suggested try a chemist that was closed over the weekend.

 

I want the ones you just stick up your nose anyway.

Yes it does. We have a few spares. 🤣

[zap99]

14 minutes ago, picsa said:

What is a lateral flow Covid test and how accurate is it? | Coronavirus | The Guardian

 

When it comes to LFTs, the accuracy appears to depend on the make of the test used, whether people have symptoms, and who is conducting the test.

 

For example, one study by researchers at the University of Oxford and Public Health England’s Porton Down lab found the LFTs were more accurate in the hands of skilled scientists, picking up 79% of Covid cases, than self-trained members of the public, who detected 58% of Covid cases.

 

Estimates for these rates vary. However, according to the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), and comparing results against those obtained by PCR testing, the false positive rate for LFTs is fewer than one in 1,000, while the false negative rate could be as high as 50%.

So not the 50-100% that you stated. Why would you do that ?.

[zap99]

58 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Only if you don't follow the instructions which unfortunately is common. When i had my test at the terminal the professional followed exactly the same procedure as I use at home. 2.5cm up each nostril.

The little stick is about 8cm long. That should do the trick.

[picsa]

6 minutes ago, zap99 said:

So not the 50-100% that you stated. Why would you do that ?.

50% chance of a false negative if someone is actually even trying to take the test.

 

But then there are those who cheat and the swab doesn’t go anywhere near their nose so 100% chance of a false negative.

 

And then you have the people who are not really keen on shoving a swab deep up their nose and down their throat, so do it nowhere near properly, but don’t think they are cheating, but still they are going to be between 50% and 100% chance of a false negative.

[zap99]

2 minutes ago, picsa said:

50% chance of a false negative if someone is actually even trying to take the test.

 

But then there are those who cheat and the swab doesn’t go anywhere near their nose so 100% chance of a false negative.

 

And then you have the people who are not really keen on shoving a swab deep up their nose and down their throat, so do it nowhere near properly, but don’t think they are cheating, but still they are going to be between 50% and 100% chance of a false negative.

But if folk do it all properly there could be a 0% Chance. So the range could be 0-100%. 

[picsa]

7 minutes ago, zap99 said:

But if folk do it all properly there could be a 0% Chance. So the range could be 0-100%. 

It couldn’t, 0-79% is the best you will get as even if done properly by medically trained staff, as shown from the piece I linked to before, 21% of positive cases are not picked up by an LFT.

 

Anyway the ‘incentive’ for people to do it properly is that they are denied travel and then have the disappointment and the struggle to get a refund. No wonder some may not approach the test with the correct attitude.

Edited August 31, 2021 by picsa

[kalos]

6 minutes ago, zap99 said:

But if folk do it all properly there could be a 0% Chance. So the range could be 0-100%. 

Very close Zapp .The NHS say.....

 

 Research shows rapid tests are 99.9% accurate. This means the chance of getting a false-positive result (where the result shows as positive but is actually negative) is extremely low.

 

So leaving out the chance that you decide to rub the test kit over the cat's buttocks or dip it into auntie Gladys's false teeth jar then under normal circumstances I would 

think you are pretty safe with the NHS's calculations .

 

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing/regular-rapid-coronavirus-tests-if-you-do-not-have-symptoms/#:~:text=You can do,is extremely low.

[ace2542]

22 minutes ago, picsa said:

50% chance of a false negative if someone is actually even trying to take the test.

 

But then there are those who cheat and the swab doesn’t go anywhere near their nose so 100% chance of a false negative.

 

And then you have the people who are not really keen on shoving a swab deep up their nose and down their throat, so do it nowhere near properly, but don’t think they are cheating, but still they are going to be between 50% and 100% chance of a false negative.

There also schoolkids faking tests with lemon juice to make  a false positive And maybe on a large scale. And adults too I am sure

[ace2542]

4 minutes ago, kalos said:

Very close Zapp .The NHS say.....

 

 Research shows rapid tests are 99.9% accurate. This means the chance of getting a false-positive result (where the result shows as positive but is actually negative) is extremely low.

 

So leaving out the chance that you decide to rub the test kit over the cat's buttocks or dip it into auntie Gladys's false teeth jar then under normal circumstances I would 

think you are pretty safe with the NHS's calculations .

 

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing/regular-rapid-coronavirus-tests-if-you-do-not-have-symptoms/#:~:text=You can do,is extremely low.

Does that cover the faking of test with lemon juice or is it orange juice which the kids have been doing?

[zap99]

4 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

Does that cover the faking of test with lemon juice or is it orange juice which the kids have been doing?

I believe it's Orange juice. Not sure about lemon, but that may do the trick.

[kalos]

2 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

Does that cover the faking of test with lemon juice or is it orange juice which the kids have been doing?

I said under normal circumstances ,so no it does not include dipping them in any other substance .

Which would be a fake result  not the 99.99 % accurate that you would get if used correctly.

 

[NaomiW]

As devastating as this must be for everyone involved, as a medical professional, I think P&Os response was completely correct and in no way over the top. Unfortunately we know that delta spreads like wildfire and even if everyone had worn their masks perfectly the whole time the chances of transmission on a coach journey of a few hours would be high. Those infected wouldnt then know for a few days, by which time half the ship would be infected. We are unfortunately seeing a lot of double jabbed people catching covid at the moment as immunity wanes a bit, although thankfully most only end up with mild symptoms.

I understand a lot of people rely on the coach to get there but it seems sensible to avoid this route if at all possible!

[Son of Anarchy]

Thinking about all this lemon juice, orange juice and the cat's rear end stuff:

 

I wonder how accurate the test is for those who snort cocaine?  Not that I've got any handy 🤣

 

Do have a Beconase nasal inhale for hay fever though.  Maybe try that and see what happens.

 

Obviously have nothing better to do this afternoon!

 

[picsa]

17 minutes ago, kalos said:

Very close Zapp .The NHS say.....

 

 Research shows rapid tests are 99.9% accurate. This means the chance of getting a false-positive result (where the result shows as positive but is actually negative) is extremely low.

 

So leaving out the chance that you decide to rub the test kit over the cat's buttocks or dip it into auntie Gladys's false teeth jar then under normal circumstances I would 

think you are pretty safe with the NHS's calculations .

 

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing/regular-rapid-coronavirus-tests-if-you-do-not-have-symptoms/#:~:text=You can do,is extremely low.

You seem to have overlooked that this is for false positive results, not the false negative being discussed.

 

As it is, it is exceedingly unlikely that if you take an LFT that it will show you have COVID if you don’t (1:1000 chance).
 

However if you do have COVID and take a test yourself then it is very likely that the test will show you don’t, with the Department of Health and Social Care research showing 50% of tests only giving the correct positive result.

 

So that person sat behind you on the coach who showed their negative result to be allowed on. Well they might not, but then again…