What will HAL's Covid vaccine policy be in 2022

[Florida_gal_50]

14 minutes ago, mightycruisequeen said:

Well, is that such a shock?  The passengers onboard are 100% vaxxed. 

Unvaxxed aren't allowed to sail HAL, so nobody's asking them what they want.

How do you know they are only asking those on board?

[esimon]

On 10/4/2021 at 8:46 PM, kazu said:

 

Completely agree with you Kirk.

If I were to guess (which is what I am doing), I suspect requirements will be similar in January as now unless vaccination increases dramatically and cases subside consdierably.

ships will never sail again without requiring vaccinations -   not gonna happen -  the world in general will never let go of Covid

 

[StLouisCruisers]

2 minutes ago, Florida_gal_50 said:

How do you know they are only asking those on board?

 

I recall our household answering a survey from HAL months before the Alaska season began asking our opinions on vaccines and masking.

[mightycruisequeen]

26 minutes ago, StLouisCruisers said:

 

I recall our household answering a survey from HAL months before the Alaska season began asking our opinions on vaccines and masking.

I sure do wish they had included us in that survey.

Are they sending out surveys again?  I've still got HAL cruises booked, and not gotten any surveys about Vax mandates in 2022.

 

[nocl]

On 10/4/2021 at 6:05 PM, OlsSalt said:

The game changer will be growing acceptance of therapeutics.  Pay attention to progress in this direction. Be they available on board,  or carried by individual passengers.

Except keep in mind that the trials for the new oral anti-viral, which were considered to be very successful, demonstrated a reduction in serious illness, by 50%.  While it is another good tool in the toolbox for fighting the illness, not anywhere near as effective as vaccination. 

 

A little like saying that flu vaccine is not required because Tamiflu exists.

[nocl]

3 hours ago, esimon said:

ships will never sail again without requiring vaccinations -   not gonna happen -  the world in general will never let go of Covid

 

They will, but might not be for a couple of years.  It all comes down to case numbers and how the virus behaves with new variants.

[SargassoPirate]

7 minutes ago, nocl said:

They will, but might not be for a couple of years.  It all comes down to case numbers and how the virus behaves with new variants.

 

It also depends on how the CDC and the media react to any new variants.  Variants of Covid are here to stay, just as variants of the Spanish flu are still floating around as the seasonal flu. 

[kazu]

I think the trend is showing in several countries that a full vaccination is going to required.  There are already several countries’ ’ airlines requiring  full vaccination.  Canada will not allow ships in without  full vaccination.

 

I suspect travel will require it to many places and as a result the cruise lines will have to as well.  Sort of like other vaccines required (ie yellow fever)  if you go to certain paces.

 

I actually hope it is.  I have two cruises booked and as long as I know they are safe, we are going 👍 

[mightycruisequeen]

Well, I for one would very much like to see HAL drop the vaccine requirement.   I understand that it's not the popularly voiced opinion on this forum, but I'm sharing it here, since this is supposed to be a place to share opinions and ideas on cruising.   

Edited October 8, 2021 by mightycruisequeen

[AliceS]

On 10/5/2021 at 1:03 PM, FlorenceItaly said:

My opinion is the vaccination requirement will hold through 2022 if not beyond.  I am wondering when fully vaccinated is going to include the booster.

Good question.   That can’t happen until Moderna and J&J get approval.   I am comfortable with being asked for my vaccination proof and a negative test.   

[SargassoPirate]

23 minutes ago, AliceS said:

Good question.   That can’t happen until Moderna and J&J get approval.   I am comfortable with being asked for my vaccination proof and a negative test.   

 

I don't mind being asked to prove my vaccine status, but cannot get a solid answer from the medical community of why vaccinated people joining other vaccinated people on a cruise need to be tested - beyond "an abundance of caution" and "may happen".  No solid answer either to what the danger is from a asymptomatic vaccinated person who tests positive - other than to those who refuse to get vaccinated.

 

The illness rate of breakthrough transmissions between vaccinated people is almost nil. 

 

The virus is here to stay and if we wait for zero positive tests, we may never resume normal life.

 

 

[mightycruisequeen]

28 minutes ago, SargassoPirate said:

 

I don't mind being asked to prove my vaccine status, but cannot get a solid answer from the medical community of why vaccinated people joining other vaccinated people on a cruise need to be tested - beyond "an abundance of caution" and "may happen".  No solid answer either to what the danger is from a asymptomatic vaccinated person who tests positive - other than to those who refuse to get vaccinated.

 

The illness rate of breakthrough transmissions between vaccinated people is almost nil. 

 

The virus is here to stay and if we wait for zero positive tests, we may never resume normal life.

 

 

The group no one is discussing is the very large (and growing) group of people who had the virus and recovered, and now have natural antibodies to protect them from reinfection.  

[cruisemom42]

25 minutes ago, SargassoPirate said:

 

I don't mind being asked to prove my vaccine status, but cannot get a solid answer from the medical community of why vaccinated people joining other vaccinated people on a cruise need to be tested - beyond "an abundance of caution" and "may happen".  No solid answer either to what the danger is from a asymptomatic vaccinated person who tests positive - other than to those who refuse to get vaccinated.

 

The illness rate of breakthrough transmissions between vaccinated people is almost nil. 

 

The virus is here to stay and if we wait for zero positive tests, we may never resume normal life.

 

 

 

The answer is multifactorial. One has to take into consideration a variety of different "facts" if you will in order to understand the situation.

 

Vaccines do protect against acquiring COVID infection and reduce the severity of infection if it is acquired. HOWEVER:

• Vaccines only reduce the potential for infection and transmission. They do not eliminate it.
• Vaccines were developed based on strains circulating at that time -- but as new strains arise (such as the delta variant), vaccines may be less effective against them.
• The effectiveness of vaccines appears to wane over time such that boosters are needed. Someone who just completed their vaccination process four weeks ago is likely to have a better immune response than someone who was vaccinated 8 months ago.
• Data suggests that the risk of breakthrough infection (e.g., infection after vaccination) is not equal among all people vaccinated.  People who are at increased risk of disease -- people with frail immune systems, people who are in older age groups, etc. -- have a greater risk of having breakthrough infections than other people. 

So taken all together, these (at least to me) make a compelling case for continuing to be vigilant with other measures such as testing. Because when people stop the other interventions that reduce the transmission of COVID (mask wearing, distancing, testing), the virus starts to transmit at a greater pace and with greater frequency -- thus increasing everyone's exposure, including people who are vaccinated.

[nocl]

41 minutes ago, SargassoPirate said:

 

I don't mind being asked to prove my vaccine status, but cannot get a solid answer from the medical community of why vaccinated people joining other vaccinated people on a cruise need to be tested - beyond "an abundance of caution" and "may happen".  No solid answer either to what the danger is from a asymptomatic vaccinated person who tests positive - other than to those who refuse to get vaccinated.

 

The illness rate of breakthrough transmissions between vaccinated people is almost nil. 

 

The virus is here to stay and if we wait for zero positive tests, we may never resume normal life.

 

 

You keep saying that.  But unlike with the earlier strains with Delta there are published studies that show that infected vaccinated individuals are just as infectious as unvaccinated individuals (published study out of Singapore).  Though vaccinated individuals are infectious for a slightly fewer number of days.

 

There are also studies from several countries that show that the breakthrough rate for vaccinated individuals is much higher with Delta than with the earlier strains (Pfizer efficacy 70%+ with Delta compared with 95% with earlier strains).

 

As a result there are infections transmitted from vaccinated individuals to other vaccinated individuals with Delta.

 

The restrictions are here until the case rates are low enough, that the vaccine alone can be considered to adequate.  The funny thing is that we were approaching that point in the summer, then Delta hit. (Cases below 10k per day for the US would be a reasonable point for relaxing some restrictions).  The case numbers drive the actions. Especially since the case numbers also correlate to medical resource consumption and deaths.

 

I expect that vaccination requirements/testing for international travel will be the last to go.  I expect that you are more likely to see vaccination requirements increase and that you may see more countries go the must be vaccinated route to avoid quarantine, even as they drop testing.

 

[nocl]

20 minutes ago, mightycruisequeen said:

The group no one is discussing is the very large (and growing) group of people who had the virus and recovered, and now have natural antibodies to protect them from reinfection.  

There is plenty of discussion and data out there.  The problem is that 1. in many cases it is not documented whereas the date and type of vaccination is  2. The immune response is highly variable depending upon the strain of the initial infection, vs potential infection from other strains.  3. The length and effectiveness of such immunity in widely variable with different studies showing different results, as a result the ability to set a time for the length of that immunity from initial infection is limited.

 

Put all three of those together and it is easier to require documented vaccination for travel.

 

You had more countries willing to accept documented previous infection/immunity for travel in the earlier days when there was problems with vaccine supply, now not so much.

[mightycruisequeen]

1 minute ago, nocl said:

There is plenty of discussion and data out there.  The problem is that 1. in many cases it is not documented whereas the date and type of vaccination is  2. The immune response is highly variable depending upon the strain of the initial infection, vs potential infection from other strains.  3. The length and effectiveness of such immunity in widely variable with different studies showing different results, as a result the ability to set a time for the length of that immunity from initial infection is limited.

 

Put all three of those together and it is easier to require documented vaccination for travel.

 

You had more countries willing to accept documented previous infection/immunity for travel in the earlier days when there was problems with vaccine supply, now not so much.

I have documentation of when I tested positive, and I also have documentation of the test results from the antibody test I took a little over a month ago.   It's still a no go for getting on a ship, unless I get a (now pointless) vaccination.  It's not scientific or fair.

I realize that big pharma isn't making billions from people who acquire natural immunity, so it looks like I'm out of luck for cruising, unless and until Holland America drops the jab mandate.

[nocl]

9 minutes ago, mightycruisequeen said:

I have documentation of when I tested positive, and I also have documentation of the test results from the antibody test I took a little over a month ago.   It's still a no go for getting on a ship, unless I get a (now pointless) vaccination.  It's not scientific or fair.

I realize that big pharma isn't making billions from people who acquire natural immunity, so it looks like I'm out of luck for cruising, unless and until Holland America drops the jab mandate.

You as an individual.  I am talking about the entire class.

 

Have you joined any studies or trials for them to monitor your antibody levels?  Have you joined any studies that look at numbers of those that have been infected to track efficacy against break through infection?

 

In other words all of the data collected in large numbers of vaccinated individuals?

 

I expect you have not, and neither has most of those that have gotten infected.  As a result the data on natural immunity comes from relatively small studies.  Mostly looking at blood work showing antibody levels, not tracking of numbers in the equivalent of a phase 3 trial.

 

As a result the regulatory authorities in most countries consider the data available concerning natural immunity is not sufficient or consistent enough for them to put it in their protocols as an alternative to vaccination.

[mightycruisequeen]

19 minutes ago, nocl said:

You as an individual.  I am talking about the entire class.

 

Have you joined any studies or trials for them to monitor your antibody levels?  Have you joined any studies that look at numbers of those that have been infected to track efficacy against break through infection?

 

In other words all of the data collected in large numbers of vaccinated individuals?

 

I expect you have not, and neither has most of those that have gotten infected.  As a result the data on natural immunity comes from relatively small studies.  Mostly looking at blood work showing antibody levels, not tracking of numbers in the equivalent of a phase 3 trial.

 

As a result the regulatory authorities in most countries consider the data available concerning natural immunity is not sufficient or consistent enough for them to put it in their protocols as an alternative to vaccination.

No, I wasn't part of an on-going study, just one person.   I appreciate your kind and well-reasoned responses to the issue.  Most on here have been pretty dismissive on that subject.

[nocl]

22 minutes ago, mightycruisequeen said:

No, I wasn't part of an on-going study, just one person.   I appreciate your kind and well-reasoned responses to the issue.  Most on here have been pretty dismissive on that subject.

The EU digital COVID certificate (vaccine passport) will accept documented recovery from COVID.  But only for 180 days after infection.  After the 180 day point they do not consider it to be acceptable.

[mightycruisequeen]

11 minutes ago, nocl said:

The EU digital COVID certificate (vaccine passport) will accept documented recovery from COVID.  But only for 180 days after infection.  After the 180 day point they do not consider it to be acceptable.

I didn't know that; figured it was jabbed only.  Is there a U.S. equivalent to that?

[nocl]

16 minutes ago, mightycruisequeen said:

I didn't know that; figured it was jabbed only.  Is there a U.S. equivalent to that?

As far as I know - no.  For example the Hawaii safe travels program does not recognize previous infection as a way to avoid quarantine, must be fully vaccinated.

[mightycruisequeen]

1 hour ago, nocl said:

Hawaii safe travels program does not recognize previous infection as a way to avoid quarantine, must be fully vaccinated.

No surprise there. Hawaii seems to be just about the most Coronaphobic place on the planet.

[mightycruisequeen]

Thank again for a pleasant and informative exchange, nocl. 😊 

[nocl]

33 minutes ago, mightycruisequeen said:

No surprise there. Hawaii seems to be just about the most Coronaphobic place on the planet.

Considering the limited number of hospital beds, the remote isolation of the islands.  Their approach worked pretty well in keeping the number of cases down until a percentage of their population was vaccinated.

 

The delta variant did certainly strain their hospital capacity.

 

The weakness in their system was mostly locals coming back home, choosing the quarantine at home (no vaccine, no test), then proceeding to infect family and friends.

 

The data I have seen has indicated few cases coming from non-residents.

 

 

[SargassoPirate]

As of October 4th, the CDC reported that some 185,000,000 Americans have been vaccinated and there have been 30,177 breakthrough cases that resulted in hospitalization or death.  If my math is correct, that's 0.00016 percent.

 

At what point does the vaccinated community get on with life and let the unvaccinated community protect themselves as they see fit?