Fare trackers: Are prices trending up on the cruises you're watching also?

[n4w]

I'm watching two specific cruises and every week, the prices keep inflating.

 

One kept sinking every week until mid-April when it decided to change direction and hasn't stopped climbing.

The other I've only tracked a few weeks, but it has increased $100pp each week.

 

And then I realized there aren't any more posts about folks trying to get adjustments for price decreases after final payment.

 

Forcing remaining FCC to go stale or milking more out of those who do use it?  Hmmmm 🤑 

or getting ready to follow the other lines and do away with FCC expiration dates?

Edited June 1, 2022 by n4w

[vacation44]

I have been waiting patiently for our Joy cruise in September to start dropping.  We booked in March and there has only been one drop which was in early April.

[n4w]

This time around, I'm waiting for the lower price before booking.  Hoping to, anyway.

Edited June 1, 2022 by n4w

[ChiefMateJRK]

Some go up.  Some drop.  Same as it ever was.

[julig22]

So far, my 2022 booked cruises are about the same or higher, got my reductions and/or FCC requests done while the getting was good!  And the 2 extra latitude points promo is gone on the 2022 cruises I checked, some 2023  still have 1 extra point.

[SeaShark]

3 hours ago, n4w said:

I'm watching two specific cruises and every week, the prices keep inflating.

 

One kept sinking every week until mid-April when it decided to change direction and hasn't stopped climbing.

The other I've only tracked a few weeks, but it has increased $100pp each week.

 

And then I realized there aren't any more posts about folks trying to get adjustments for price decreases after final payment.

 

Forcing remaining FCC to go stale or milking more out of those who do use it?  Hmmmm 🤑 

or getting ready to follow the other lines and do away with FCC expiration dates?

 

When he took over NCL in 2015, FDR made no secret of the fact that he was changing NCL from using a discount to fill price strategy to a market to fill price strategy. They even wrote newspaper and magazine articles about it...yet people still price watch like NCL is still discount to fill. Everything now revolves around the "deal"...the "free at sea". They can maintain the price and alter the perceived value of the "deal".

 

You can book NOW or you can book LATER...so what are the potential scenarios of each decision?

 

--If the price NOW is the same as the price LATER...the price part of the decision doesn't matter, but you will have less cabin availability later, so it would be better to book now.

 

--If the price NOW is lower than the price LATER...you get the better price and the better cabin selection by booking now. If you wait, then you pay more and you get less cabins to choose from.

 

--If the price NOW is higher than the price LATER...you can simply cancel and rebook at the lower price while likely keeping your original cabin. You'll still pay the lower of the two prices, and you have the benefit of booking with the greater cabin selection.

 

The real question you have to ask is: Why wait when there is such a great downside to doing so? If price is all that matters, there are plenty of bargain-basement lines where you can cruise on the cheap.

[n4w]

1 hour ago, SeaShark said:

The real question you have to ask is: Why wait when there is such a great downside to doing so? If price is all that matters, there are plenty of bargain-basement lines where you can cruise on the cheap.

 

1. Can't cancel/rebook after final payment dates (one is 7 weeks away, other is just about 120 days).

2. Adjustments after final payment are FCC.  I'm sick and tired of FCC and would rather deal in terms of actual cash.

3. Selection doesn't matter, planning on getting a sail-away cabin and maybe go for a bid upgrade.

 

Downsides mitigated, but I don't disagree with your reasoning.  Would try another line, but have to finish up last CruiseNext coupon and remaining FCC before end of the year.

Edited June 2, 2022 by n4w

[kdawg954]

Cruise I booked a week ago for NYE dropped $250 pp 3 days later.  Emailed the TA and NCL quickly adjusted the cabin cost.

 

From what I can tell once you get to final payment there just won't be some great last minute discount to wait on, at least not on NCL.  Fare watching is best seen about 5 to 7 months out.

 

I normally enjoy waiting until the last second (last two cruises I booked less than a month away) booking inside and then doing a cabin upgrade. But with supposed increase in demand and rising costs I figured it would be best to secure something when a proper sale happened and price watch and not risk a price increase later.

 

 

[insidecabin]

The ones I was looking at dropped eventually but NCL got priced out by Princess on 2 trips.

 

Both lines have put up the price of the fixed addons in the UK, 

NCL free at seas has doubled on some cruise length(eg £99-£199),

Princess have added £10 a day to their Princess+(drinks grats and unlimited wifi)  now £40pppd

 

Will start watching some other NCL soon,

 

Plenty of talk about not discounting to fill but it has happened in Europe as they added the £250 flight credit which dropped prices quite a bit on some trips, add the flight total price goes down as a lot of flights in Europe are well under £250 return.

 

looking at the fruit based tracking site plenty of price drops in the US since Jan as the prices were all pushed up late last year

 

Dawn leaving Southampton tomorrow(3 June)  

2021 $2,078  (Jan low) 

2022 $3999  (jan, started dropping) 

2022  $1,299 (21 May  low point)

 

 

 

[SeaShark]

7 hours ago, n4w said:

 

1. Can't cancel/rebook after final payment dates (one is 7 weeks away, other is just about 120 days).

2. Adjustments after final payment are FCC.  I'm sick and tired of FCC and would rather deal in terms of actual cash.

3. Selection doesn't matter, planning on getting a sail-away cabin and maybe go for a bid upgrade.

 

Downsides mitigated, but I don't disagree with your reasoning.  Would try another line, but have to finish up last CruiseNext coupon and remaining FCC before end of the year.

 

Here is another issue that I see on CC...

 

The information highlighted in yellow above does play into the question asked, yet this information wasn't shared or hinted at in the initial post.

 

Price monitoring after final payment is just, IMHO, crazy. Not only is the timeframe short, but you lose all wiggle room as it becomes "once you book...you're locked in". Not only that, but short timeframes are a bad idea for booking transportation. This means you're either overpaying for airfare, or you're sticking with drivable departure ports...vastly limiting your options.  It's more of a gamble than a viable shopping strategy. 

[MsTabbyKats]

6 hours ago, kdawg954 said:

 

I normally enjoy waiting until the last second (last two cruises I booked less than a month away) booking inside and then doing a cabin upgrade. But with supposed increase in demand and rising costs I figured it would be best to secure something when a proper sale happened and price watch and not risk a price increase later.

 

 

That's what I like to do....wait until the end....book a cheap sailaway....and upgrade myself if I'm not happy  But, for the 6/5 sailing, because of double cruisenexts....I booked sailaway balcony on 5/5.  The price went up, and now sailaway interior is more than I paid for my balcony.

 

You just gotta book when you see a price you like.

[geleisen]

12 hours ago, SeaShark said:

 

When he took over NCL in 2015, FDR made no secret of the fact that he was changing NCL from using a discount to fill price strategy to a market to fill price strategy. They even wrote newspaper and magazine articles about it...yet people still price watch like NCL is still discount to fill.

Maybe that is because they still do so often? Every cruise I have taken since 2015 I have booked after US final payment because that is when it finally becomes affordable for me. When I look out a year or more in the future, there is not a single cruise that is within the budget I am comfortable with. 

Especially if you are a solo traveller, up to now at least, the best prices have always been after US final payment, as that is when they finally tend to drop the solo supplement. And while we all have our preferences, for me I prefer not to spend more than about 80 USD per night including FAS and taxes, etc. as a solo traveller and the only time I can find these prices are last minute. To me, I have not seen any evidence that NCL does not discount to fill, other than the claims they have made in the media, and the fact that so many people here are always talking about the latest policies of price drops after final payment dates tells me that I am not the only one who finds that this happens relatively frequently.

I am sure that they would love to fully adopt a market to fill strategy and they might have been moving in that direction for years, however, I am not convinced that they are there yet and would still advocate the price watching as it continues paying off for me...

[n4w]

3 hours ago, SeaShark said:

The information highlighted in yellow above does play into the question asked, yet this information wasn't shared or hinted at in the initial post.

 

The question asked was if prices are trending up as evidenced by my tracking and absence of posts regarding adjustment after price decreases.  The information you cite pertains to your question regarding NOW vs. LATER.  Additional information pertaining to now vs. later: travel already booked with points, cancel at no charge.

 

It absolutely is a gamble, but based on watching the majority of fares decreasing as sail date approaches instead of increasing.  I agree, whenever gambling, it is best to study the odds and mitigate your risk.  So the question was intended to gather more data points to make the NOW vs. LATER decision less about gambling, and more about maximizing value.

[SeaShark]

28 minutes ago, n4w said:

 

The question asked was if prices are trending up as evidenced by my tracking and absence of posts regarding adjustment after price decreases.  The information you cite pertains to your question regarding NOW vs. LATER.  Additional information pertaining to now vs. later: travel already booked with points, cancel at no charge.

 

It absolutely is a gamble, but based on watching the majority of fares decreasing as sail date approaches instead of increasing.  I agree, whenever gambling, it is best to study the odds and mitigate your risk.  So the question was intended to gather more data points to make the NOW vs. LATER decision less about gambling, and more about maximizing value.

 

100% wrong...it has nothing to do with my question. AFTER final payment is the key. Of course you don't see posts about adjustments after price decreases...they don't do adjustments after final payment. You presented the question without providing the complete scenario. My answer would have been different had you been upfront and stated that you were only looking/tracking after final payment date.

[julig22]

53 minutes ago, geleisen said:

Especially if you are a solo traveller, up to now at least, the best prices have always been after US final payment, as that is when they finally tend to drop the solo supplement. And while we all have our preferences, for me I prefer not to spend more than about 80 USD per night including FAS and taxes, etc. as a solo traveller and the only time I can find these prices are last minute. 

Many, if not all cruises that I've checked (through October 2022) have had a reduced solo supplement (150%) since early 2022. Not a complete drop but enough for me to book, especially since I often want to take advantage of the reduced airfare and that curently drops off anywhere from 60-90 days.

I only have 1 cruise, booked almost a year ago, that I didn't reprice once the solo supplement was reduced - because what I paid then is still cheaper and keeps the old FAS perks.

[n4w]

28 minutes ago, SeaShark said:

 

100% wrong...it has nothing to do with my question. AFTER final payment is the key. Of course you don't see posts about adjustments after price decreases...they don't do adjustments after final payment. You presented the question without providing the complete scenario. My answer would have been different had you been upfront and stated that you were only looking/tracking after final payment date.

 

LOL, I didn't hide anything from you.  Few months back, there were almost daily posts about people wanting to get something for price drops after final payment.  Do a search for "price drops." That's where we learned NCL was no longer giving 25% OBC, changed to 50% and then 100% FCC for a future cruise.

 

I asked a question to those tracking specific fares, how they were trending: up or down - has nothing to do with my circumstances, my scenario does not matter.  Before or after final payment date does not matter, the question was were they going up or not.

 

Your answer would have been different if you if you did not venture off into your NOW vs. LATER question; where I've already declared you the winner.  You perfectly answered your own question, it just wasn't mine.

[kdawg954]

10 hours ago, MsTabbyKats said:

That's what I like to do....wait until the end....book a cheap sailaway....and upgrade myself if I'm not happy  But, for the 6/5 sailing, because of double cruisenexts....I booked sailaway balcony on 5/5.  The price went up, and now sailaway interior is more than I paid for my balcony.

 

You just gotta book when you see a price you like.

 

I did the same, used 2 CruiseNext on a balcony while I still was 6 months in advance (knowing that I've seen that requirement lifted over the past year but still didn't want to chance it).

 

Its kind of nice, got to choose my balcony room vs. going with a balcony guarantee and immediately took advantage of a price drop. 

 

The perks of living in South Florida and can just jump on something that catches the eye.

[RD64]

10 hours ago, MsTabbyKats said:

That's what I like to do....wait until the end....book a cheap sailaway....and upgrade myself if I'm not happy  But, for the 6/5 sailing, because of double cruisenexts....I booked sailaway balcony on 5/5.  The price went up, and now sailaway interior is more than I paid for my balcony.

 

You just gotta book when you see a price you like.

The wisest words I have seen on CC. Book at a price you are comfortable with - end of story! Don’t lose your mind after because the price has dropped and you are not eligible for a fare reduction or an upgrade to a Penthouse suite because you paid bare minimum for an inside.

 

thank you MsTabbyKats

[ChiefMateJRK]

17 minutes ago, RD64 said:

Don’t lose your mind after because the price has dropped and you are not eligible for a fare reduction or an upgrade to a Penthouse suite because you paid bare minimum for an inside.

Actually, I've paid bare minimum for an inside a number of times and that puts a person in the best position if/when fares drop.  It's cheap/easy to upgrade to a balcony for couch change.  😎

[julig22]

1 minute ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Actually, I've paid bare minimum for an inside a number of times and that puts a person in the best position if/when fares drop.  It's cheap/easy to upgrade to a balcony for couch change.  😎

Just a FYI - they just removed the extra Latitudes points for many 2022 cruises.  Most likely making those cruises ineligible for upgrades or fcc after final payment, per the current policy that requires promos to match.  

[IronRobi]

I would fully expect cruise prices to be trending up right now and for the foreseeable future. I would guess the 2 largest expenses to operate a cruise would be fuel and food. The costs of each are climbing every week which makes every cruise more expensive to operate. So to maintain profit margins in a way that's responsible to their shareholders, they would have to raise the pricing to compensate.

[BermudaBound2014]

21 minutes ago, julig22 said:

Just a FYI - they just removed the extra Latitudes points for many 2022 cruises.  Most likely making those cruises ineligible for upgrades or fcc after final payment, per the current policy that requires promos to match.  

 

You always offer really great reminders about NCL policy. Thank you.

 

9 hours ago, SeaShark said:

 

100% wrong...it has nothing to do with my question. AFTER final payment is the key. 

 

When I read the OP's post I assumed they were tracking prices right up until departure. When I track cruise prices I start from day one and stop tracking the week of departure. I would never stop tracking at final payment. What's the point of that since the deepest discounts almost always come after lol

 

13 hours ago, SeaShark said:

Price monitoring after final payment is just, IMHO, crazy.

 

 

Actually, that's about when I start tracking lol

 

13 hours ago, SeaShark said:

Not only that, but short timeframes are a bad idea for booking transportation. This means you're either overpaying for airfare, or you're sticking with drivable departure ports...vastly limiting your options.  It's more of a gamble than a viable shopping strategy. 

 

 

Why would the shortened time frame effect transportation? You can purchase transportation separate of the cruise. I will give you an specific example (pre covid of course). We wanted to do a cruise from Venice thru the greek isles. I looked at all the cruise itineraries and decided on my top three choices. I booked our airfare to Venice right around the critical 321 release dates (almost 10 months in advance). I had a 3 week window to take a cruise from Venice and the remaining time would be land vacation. In this three week window there were approximately 9 sailings (including my top three) that I would be willing to accept.  We booked the cruise 3 weeks prior to sailing and saved approximately 80% and got our number one choice which was a 14 day sailing.

 

I use this strategy from Florida too. Buy my air to arrive on a Friday and depart on a Monday and then monitor pricing and buy the cruise whenever. Pre covid there were nearly 30 cruises leaving on Saturday or Sunday from Miami and FLL.  I have NEVER been skunked but I don't have cruise line loyalty. Now, this strategy does involve flexibility, but had no cruises shown up, I am always fine with a land vacation and the beauty of land vacations is that almost all hotels are 100% refundable so lots of flexibility.

 

There is always a work around.

[BermudaBound2014]

11 minutes ago, IronRobi said:

I would fully expect cruise prices to be trending up right now and for the foreseeable future. I would guess the 2 largest expenses to operate a cruise would be fuel and food. The costs of each are climbing every week which makes every cruise more expensive to operate. So to maintain profit margins in a way that's responsible to their shareholders, they would have to raise the pricing to compensate.

 

You do realize that not one cruise line is making a profit at the moment because they can not get enough passengers on board? Every quarter is additional debt. Billions of debt. Cruise lines need bodies onboard. Last minute pricing continues to be very attractive. 7 night Alaskan cruises are selling for below $400 inside and below $600 in a balcony for the month of June.

 

If you need to plan ahead, prices are high, but if you have flexibility there are insane deals to be had right now. 

 

 

[ChiefMateJRK]

52 minutes ago, julig22 said:

Just a FYI - they just removed the extra Latitudes points for many 2022 cruises.  Most likely making those cruises ineligible for upgrades or fcc after final payment, per the current policy that requires promos to match.  

Thanks.  That said, when it works it works quite well.  I paid $52 pp on my last cruise to upgrade from an inside to a balcony.

[ziggyuk]

9 hours ago, julig22 said:

Just a FYI - they just removed the extra Latitudes points for many 2022 cruises.  Most likely making those cruises ineligible for upgrades or fcc after final payment, per the current policy that requires promos to match.  

 

I had no trouble upgrading via my PCC in April, original booking had double Latitude points, I got an upgrade to a balcony for next to nothing but lost the double Latitudes as that promotion was no longer available.