Carnival Stock Below $10

[NightOne]

5 minutes ago, mz-s said:

I was all ready to buy $CCL, then all the reports of people getting their shareholder OBC denied because they booked with casino rates came in.

 

Every cruise I have booked for the past few years with Carnival has been under a casino rate and I have never had my shareholder OBC denied. 🙂

[4hunters]

55 minutes ago, mz-s said:

I was all ready to buy $CCL, then all the reports of people getting their shareholder OBC denied because they booked with casino rates came in.

That's been my experience as well on Carnival.  Since the restart, they've denied me all three Carnival cruises I've taken.  Princess, on the other hand, approved my request on the one post-pandemic cruise I've taken with them. 🤷‍♂️

Edited March 10, 2023 by 4hunters
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[gkbiiii]

Royal has stopped their stock dividend, what about Carnival?

[icft]

11 minutes ago, gkbiiii said:

Royal has stopped their stock dividend, what about Carnival?

I believe their last dividend was declared in January of 2020, ex-dividend February 2020 and paid March 2020. Pandemics tend to have that effect.

[kona_wahine]

Carnival is cracking down on the ob credit for the casino rate cruises. The one we just took, which was a freebie, we got the credit. The one we booked for October we were told NO! I’m ok with that, since it’s costing us $15 a day for the cruise for the 2 of us…. 

[BoozinCroozin]

8 hours ago, icft said:

I believe their last dividend was declared in January of 2020, ex-dividend February 2020 and paid March 2020. Pandemics tend to have that effect.

Dividends will not return for the next 10 years. The debt has to get below $10B and probably closer to $5B before it takes on dividends. The stock price will also need to be back above $50. They keep saying massive bookings and full ships, but that $34B debt keeps going up and up.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

55 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

Dividends will not return for the next 10 years. The debt has to get below $10B and probably closer to $5B before it takes on dividends. The stock price will also need to be back above $50. They keep saying massive bookings and full ships, but that $34B debt keeps going up and up.

 

When you have your "cards maxed out", and only pay the minimum, those payments rarely move the needle! I was a twenty-something at one point, and learned that the fun way. 🙂

 

Tom

[BoozinCroozin]

10 minutes ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

When you have your "cards maxed out", and only pay the minimum, those payments rarely move the needle! I was a twenty-something at one point, and learned that the fun way. 🙂

 

Tom

I get you. I am in at $8 with 8,000 shares. We really need to see them taking this debt down by $4B a year. It will be without profit and that is baked in the price. As they see the debt going down along with interest payments, they price will start to climb. But you have to look at the 10-year picture. I'll be more than happy to take the 4x over 10 years as the debt gets back to about $10-$12B in that time. They will also restructure as interest rates go down over time. But, they have to start paying $1B each quarter to that debt wall.

[At Sea At Peace]

30 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

I get you. I am in at $8 with 8,000 shares. We really need to see them taking this debt down by $4B a year. It will be without profit and that is baked in the price. As they see the debt going down along with interest payments, they price will start to climb. But you have to look at the 10-year picture. I'll be more than happy to take the 4x over 10 years as the debt gets back to about $10-$12B in that time. They will also restructure as interest rates go down over time. But, they have to start paying $1B each quarter to that debt wall.

 

Pretty brave, but it's your money.

 

With regard to "restructuring," my take is another form (versus what I see as your inference to "refinancing" debt) and in troubled debt restructuring, aka bankruptcy reorganization (not liquidation).  In such a scenario, which I believe is most likely (absent an oil-rich sovereign fund in which $30B is treated like Monopoly money), equity is almost universally cancelled.

 

Again, pretty brave, but it's your money.  GLTY  🤞

 

[icft]

6 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

...They will also restructure as interest rates go down over time. But, they have to start paying $1B each quarter to that debt wall.

You may well be correct, but I think betting on interest rates going down other than for very short term moves is a bad bet.

 

Interest rates fell for thirty years and are now, except for short term fed induced rates, at levels that are a historical aberration.

 

 

Most investors today have only lived during this Goldilocks period and don't recognize how unusual it is.