Carnival Stock Drops Again After Earnings Report

[Lee Cruiser]

As many of us thought all along, it's going to be a long rocky road for Carnival stockholders.  In spite of having great bookings and revenues, as well as a less than expected loss for the last quarter, the stock still moved negative today. It is also dragging down the other cruise stocks, though these are down nearly as much as Carnival. As of 2:20 eastern, Carnival is down over 5% today compared to RCI at .12% and NCLH at 1.95%.  The debt continues to be a huge problem for Carnival.  Another huge factor is that Carnival expects a loss for this year of 28-44 cents per share instead of the estimated 8 cents per share due to rising operating costs.  Don't look to make big money on Carnival stock anytime in the near future.  Because of the much larger number of shares outstanding now compared to 2019, the stock may take decades to ever get near the 2019 price again.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-corp-posts-smaller-loss-133147129.html

 

[ibarrio]

This would be a good time to buy for a long hold. 100 shares for less than $900 dollars. That $900 will can come back as OBC so it will pay for itself over time.  

[Lee Cruiser]

8 minutes ago, ibarrio said:

This would be a good time to buy for a long hold. 100 shares for less than $900 dollars. That $900 will can come back as OBC so it will pay for itself over time.  

Yes, the OBC is a good benefit if you buy it low, but it may pay to wait a little before buying it.  I wouldn't be surprised if it drops another $1 or more per share this year.  Last fall it got below $7 for a period.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, Lee Cruiser said:

 Last fall it got below $7 for a period.

Actually, it got dangerously close to the 5’s. I believe she bottomed out at $6.12.

IMO, we will see these numbers again. It’s great that they beat estimates but the market is responding to increased debt even at 91% occupancy. Assuming inflation halts (and that is unlikely), CCL can barely squeak a profit even if they can hit 100% occupancy at historic highs. The interest only payments on 35 Billion (with a B) is a very serious anchor. 
 

Of course, an $800 investment for $100 OBC is a very nice return (not to mention $250 on longer cruises). And let’s face it, if you can’t afford to lose $800 you really have no business in the market right now 

[BlerkOne]

All the major cruise line stocks are seriously overvalued. Of the 3, CCL and NCLH are the easiest to obtain shareholder OBC.

[BermudaBound2014]

11 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

All the major cruise line stocks are seriously overvalued. Of the 3, CCL and NCLH are the easiest to obtain shareholder OBC.

 And RCL is the strongest performer, so there’s that. 
 

Just curious, have you had difficulty obtaining RCL shareholder benefit? I’ve never had an issue- one email and presto. 

Edited March 27, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[kdr69]

You mean there are actually people who buy it to make money?  I thought it was bought just to get the OBC. 😯

[BlerkOne]

11 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 And RCL is the strongest performer, so there’s that. 
 

Just curious, have you had difficulty obtaining RCL shareholder benefit? I’ve never had an issue- one email and presto. 

RCL earnings will be out in about a month. We'll see.

 

I dumped my RCL stock a long time ago. Royal may have changed the rules, but there are still complaints you can't combine it with any casino offer and more. With Carnival Corp, the benefit is available on all the the Carnival brands but AFAIK, Royal shareholder OBC still doesn't apply to Silversea.

[Lee Cruiser]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Actually, it got dangerously close to the 5’s. I believe she bottomed out at $6.12.

IMO, we will see these numbers again. It’s great that they beat estimates but the market is responding to increased debt even at 91% occupancy. Assuming inflation halts (and that is unlikely), CCL can barely squeak a profit even if they can hit 100% occupancy at historic highs. The interest only payments on 35 Billion (with a B) is a very serious anchor. 

I wouldn't be surprised it that does happen.

[Lee Cruiser]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Of course, an $800 investment for $100 OBC is a very nice return (not to mention $250 on longer cruises). And let’s face it, if you can’t afford to lose $800 you really have no business in the market right now 

Definitely shouldn't be in the market and one could argue that you may not need to be spending money on cruising either.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

RCL earnings will be out in about a month. We'll see.

 

I dumped my RCL stock a long time ago. Royal may have changed the rules, but there are still complaints you can't combine it with any casino offer and more. With Carnival Corp, the benefit is available on all the the Carnival brands but AFAIK, Royal shareholder OBC still doesn't apply to Silversea.

It is my understanding CCL also stopped allowing shareholder benefits to be used with casino offers 😞

[BlerkOne]

13 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

It is my understanding CCL also stopped allowing shareholder benefits to be used with casino offers 😞

I have yet to be turned down, so that clearly is not true in all cases. 🙂

[BermudaBound2014]

4 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

I have yet to be turned down, so that clearly is not true in all cases. 🙂

When was your most recent request and what was your casino offer?
 

There are many threads on here and social media with dozens of people who have been refused with the $100 pp casino offer. 

[BlerkOne]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

When was your most recent request and what was your casino offer?
 

There are many threads on here and social media with dozens of people who have been refused with the $100 pp casino offer. 

They should be refused with $100pp offer. The very audacity to even try to get shareholder OBC on those cruises. I get emails on $100 cruises almost daily but am not interested in the cruises or cabins offered. The offers I use are typically a slightly reduced fare and drinks in the casino. I do have some with a $750 OBC but I haven't applied for those, yet.

[mz-s]

"Past performance does not guarantee future results"

 

In the case of $CCL that may be a blessing. If you follow the past performance graph as it is today, nobody except the braindead would be buying this stock right now.

 

A company that cannot turn a profit during this revenge travel bubble is not something I'd ever consider investing in personally.

 

Each to their own

Edited March 27, 2023 by mz-s

[mz-s]

59 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

They should be refused with $100pp offer. The very audacity to even try to get shareholder OBC on those cruises. I get emails on $100 cruises almost daily but am not interested in the cruises or cabins offered. The offers I use are typically a slightly reduced fare and drinks in the casino. I do have some with a $750 OBC but I haven't applied for those, yet.

 

That "slightly" reduced fare still should not be eligible for the OBC if Carnival followed what the shareholder benefit documentation says. More clarity is needed I think, at what point is a rate too discounted to be eligible for shareholder OBC?

Edited March 27, 2023 by mz-s

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, kdr69 said:

You mean there are actually people who buy it to make money?  I thought it was bought just to get the OBC. 😯

It was not that long ago (if any of us can remember what things were like pre-Covid) that in addition to the OBC, it was a money maker. It was in the low mid 30s when we bought it, and not only did it go up from there, but at some point the dividend that they paid doubled.

[mz-s]

Just now, ontheweb said:

It was not that long ago (if any of us can remember what things were like pre-Covid) that in addition to the OBC, it was a money maker. It was in the low mid 30s when we bought it, and not only did it go up from there, but at some point the dividend that they paid doubled.

 

True - today the only appeal of the stock, unless you own birds, is the potential OBC.

[BlerkOne]

40 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

That "slightly" reduced fare still should not be eligible for the OBC if Carnival followed what the shareholder benefit documentation says. More clarity is needed I think, at what point is a rate too discounted to be eligible for shareholder OBC?

Carnival doesn't owe any explanation nor any clarification. If anyone doesn't like it, well...

[mz-s]

Just now, BlerkOne said:

Carnival doesn't owe any explanation nor any clarification. If anyone doesn't like it, well...

 

They do owe an explanation if they expect people to invest in their birdcage liner of a stock.

[BlerkOne]

5 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

They do owe an explanation if they expect people to invest in their birdcage liner of a stock.

Individuals are a minority stakeholder, so no, they don't.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

They should be refused with $100pp offer. The very audacity to even try to get shareholder OBC on those cruises. 

Thanks -

 

Just so we are clear, like rcl, CCL appears to be refusing shareholder OBC for those taking advantage of the post popular Casino offerings. 

Edited March 28, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

4 hours ago, kdr69 said:

You mean there are actually people who buy it to make money?  I thought it was bought just to get the OBC. 😯

There are people who short it to make money 😉 

[mz-s]

18 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

There are people who short it to make money 😉 

 

betting on the decline of $CCL is a far safer bet than red or black on roulette.

[VentureMan_2000]

4 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

It is my understanding CCL also stopped allowing shareholder benefits to be used with casino offers 😞

I recall pre-covid that this was true.