After Reading Numerous Posts over the last Several Weeks, These are my thoughts

[Hlitner]

15 hours ago, Destiny0315 said:

And with discussion comes disagreement. Many of the "facts that are coming out" as the OP said but she provides no real first hand evidence of them. Lines like "money seems to be going", "Unknown if this is", "does not seem to be", or "my guess is" lack factual content. For a forum like this it does create a good discussion but in a more formal setting it is mostly baseless chatter.

Because of your post, I went back and re-read the OP's post.   I have no problem with the post and agree with most of what she says except where she talks about the idea of CCL providing more financial support to HAL.  CCL has over $30 Billion in debt and is not in a good position to invest more money in their companies.  At this point we assume much of the conversation in the executive suites is how to meet future debt service.  To put it mildly, CCL is in financial trouble and the future of that Corportation, and HAL, is in question.

 

However, I do have a big problem with your post which is simply a critique of a poster and not a rebuttal of what was posted.  Having just come off 42 days on the Westerdam we have no doubt that HAL has cut-back on just about everything onboard (cuisine, entertainment, crew/passenger ratio, etc).  The supply chain issues mentioned by the OP were very apparent throughout our cruise.  

 

My only remaining question about HAL is whether the huge decline (in multiple areas)  we experienced on the Westerdam is primarily a problem with that single ship or a fleet-wide trend.  

[Guest ldtr]

42 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Because of your post, I went back and re-read the OP's post.   I have no problem with the post and agree with most of what she says except where she talks about the idea of CCL providing more financial support to HAL.  CCL has over $30 Billion in debt and is not in a good position to invest more money in their companies.  At this point we assume much of the conversation in the executive suites is how to meet future debt service.  To put it mildly, CCL is in financial trouble and the future of that Corportation, and HAL, is in question.

 

However, I do have a big problem with your post which is simply a critique of a poster and not a rebuttal of what was posted.  Having just come off 42 days on the Westerdam we have no doubt that HAL has cut-back on just about everything onboard (cuisine, entertainment, crew/passenger ratio, etc).  The supply chain issues mentioned by the OP were very apparent throughout our cruise.  

 

My only remaining question about HAL is whether the huge decline (in multiple areas)  we experienced on the Westerdam is primarily a problem with that single ship or a fleet-wide trend.  

CCL is actually in better shape than RCL and NCLH (NCLH in the worst shape of the 3).  All of the major cruise holding companies are going to be constrained for the next 10 years or so.  However, all three of them have demonstrated that occupancy numbers that are near pre covid level.  All of them have shown in their most recent quarters financials that their operations are cash flow positive or very close to it.  All three should be cash flow positive in the next quarter or two, including debt payments.  Though they still might show losses due to depreciation.

 

Unless their is a major negative impact to the economy there is nothing to indicate that they are in trouble at this time, only restrained in additional capital investment.

 

If conditions change the canary in the coal mine will be NCLH.

 

My only question is why were you on the Westerdam?  I seem to recall you making similar comments about HAL, especially about entertainment, even before the Covid shutdown.

Edited May 23, 2023 by ldtr

[Mary229]

@ldtr  thank you for your financial insights. I was going to post something similar but you said it far better.  Adding to your discussion, this does not even take into account the privately held companies which we have absolutely no idea of financial condition.  I think that is where you will see the first signs of consolidation if ever.   The travel industry seems to be doing quite well.  The cruise industry still needs to be able to raise prices and there are signs that those prices will rise.  I see indications in dynamic pricing.  Without price increases we will not see the levels of staffing, entertainment or dining we came to enjoy.
 

From a personal perspective I am considering locking into today’s prices with refundable future cruise deposits.    

Edited May 23, 2023 by Mary229

[Destiny0315]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

Because of your post, I went back and re-read the OP's post.   I have no problem with the post and agree with most of what she says except where she talks about the idea of CCL providing more financial support to HAL.  CCL has over $30 Billion in debt and is not in a good position to invest more money in their companies.  At this point we assume much of the conversation in the executive suites is how to meet future debt service.  To put it mildly, CCL is in financial trouble and the future of that Corportation, and HAL, is in question.

 

However, I do have a big problem with your post which is simply a critique of a poster and not a rebuttal of what was posted.  Having just come off 42 days on the Westerdam we have no doubt that HAL has cut-back on just about everything onboard (cuisine, entertainment, crew/passenger ratio, etc).  The supply chain issues mentioned by the OP were very apparent throughout our cruise.  

 

My only remaining question about HAL is whether the huge decline (in multiple areas)  we experienced on the Westerdam is primarily a problem with that single ship or a fleet-wide trend.  

Well much of what the OP spoke about in her post came from your original 42+ days of posting real or perceived problems that you were seeing live before you on the Westerdam. During that time myself and others made suggestions as to how they may be resolved right there at ship level. I have also posted about real and perceived problems that I was seeing or not seeing on the Zaandam, but I didn't look any deeper beyond what I was seeing in front of me. If you read my post about what I and others saw on the Zaandam for 16 days I rebutted a number of the issues that you saw in person and that the OP talked about second handily from her "hearing" things and "reading" posts on CC. The wine glass is either half full or half empty for many people in this forum about HAL. In your mind and others they have emptied the bottle and happy hour is over in my mind and others they are still pouring albeit they have watered it all down with ice.🙂 Rob

Edited May 23, 2023 by Destiny0315

[Hlitner]

5 minutes ago, ldtr said:

 

 

My only question is why were you on the Westerdam?  I seem to recall you making similar comments about HAL, especially about entertainment, even before the Covid shutdown.

Good question.  We had originally booked a similar Noordam (Japan itinerary) about 5 years ago, when HAL was somewhat different than it is today.  That cruise was cancelled in Feb 2020 and our reservation was rolled over to the 2021 cruise, The 2021 cruise was also cancelled and our reservation rolled over to 2022.  The 2022 cruise was also cancelled and rolled over the 2023 Westerdam cruise.  While we could have cancelled at any time, HAL, kept sweetening the pot by holding prices and tossing in extra OBC.  

 

Once the restart took hold, we heard (mostly on CC) about some "issues" on HAL but we would have lost a substantial amount of OBCs if we had cancelled.  We were also able to lock into decent Business Class flights to Japan (using EZAIR) and DW and I wanted to get back to Japan this year (we flew in 12 days before the cruise).  We went on the cruise with very lowered expectations, some things were better than expected (the food prep in the MDR was decent), and many other items were at or below those lowered expectations.   Nobody could be sure what kind of product HAL would have in Asia since nobody had cruised there in several years.  I think only HAL could run out of black tea (Earl Grey, Liptons, English Breakfast, etc) in Asia when there are tons of tea shops in every port :).  And by the way, they did eventually get some tea but had to send one of the Maitre d's on a shopping trip in one of the ports :).

 

I should add that we met many folks on our cruise who were in a similar situation (they had booked 1 or 2 years prior to COVID).  

 

Hank

[OlsSalt]

1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

Because of your post, I went back and re-read the OP's post.   I have no problem with the post and agree with most of what she says except where she talks about the idea of CCL providing more financial support to HAL.  CCL has over $30 Billion in debt and is not in a good position to invest more money in their companies.  At this point we assume much of the conversation in the executive suites is how to meet future debt service.  To put it mildly, CCL is in financial trouble and the future of that Corportation, and HAL, is in question.

 

However, I do have a big problem with your post which is simply a critique of a poster and not a rebuttal of what was posted.  Having just come off 42 days on the Westerdam we have no doubt that HAL has cut-back on just about everything onboard (cuisine, entertainment, crew/passenger ratio, etc).  The supply chain issues mentioned by the OP were very apparent throughout our cruise.  

 

My only remaining question about HAL is whether the huge decline (in multiple areas)  we experienced on the Westerdam is primarily a problem with that single ship or a fleet-wide trend.  

 

I am only surprised you remain "surprised"  there have been cut backs. 

[Florida_gal_50]

59 minutes ago, Destiny0315 said:

Well much of what the OP spoke about in her post came from your original 42+ days of posting real or perceived problems that you were seeing live before you on the Westerdam. During that time myself and others made suggestions as to how they may be resolved right there at ship level. I have also posted about real and perceived problems that I was seeing or not seeing on the Zaandam, but I didn't look any deeper beyond what I was seeing in front of me. If you read my post about what I and others saw on the Zaandam for 16 days I rebutted a number of the issues that you saw in person and that the OP talked about second handily from her "hearing" things and "reading" posts on CC. The wine glass is either half full or half empty for many people in this forum about HAL. In your mind and others they have emptied the bottle and happy hour is over in my mind and others they are still pouring albeit they have watered it all down with ice.🙂 Rob

So every ship is the same?  Right.

[Destiny0315]

2 minutes ago, Florida_gal_50 said:

So every ship is the same?  Right.

No they are not. That's why people should not generalize either way about the entire book if they have only read one or two of the eleven chapters.

[Florida_gal_50]

Just now, Destiny0315 said:

No they are not. That's why people should not generalize either way about the entire book if they have only read one or two of the eleven chapters.

I guess I missed the posts to say things are wrong on EVERY ship.  That isn't what the OP is saying, just raising questions.  The threads are easily skipped over (once again).

[Destiny0315]

29 minutes ago, Florida_gal_50 said:

I guess I missed the posts to say things are wrong on EVERY ship.  That isn't what the OP is saying, just raising questions.  The threads are easily skipped over (once again).

 

On 5/12/2023 at 5:02 PM, LAFFNVEGAS said:

Below is just my personal thoughts and things that keep coming to mind as I have been reading many posts over the last several weeks.

There isn't a question asked in the OP entire post. It was as she said her personal thoughts which were based widely on many recent posts on CC. Nothing wrong with that but she clearly cast a pall over HAL and its fleet in general which may or may not be true based on ones personal thoughts and experiences. Btw, the most positive buzz I heard about other lines on my cruise was about Azamara.

[Guest ldtr]

58 minutes ago, Florida_gal_50 said:

So every ship is the same?  Right.

The problems with ships seem to be more related to which cruisers are on which ship than the ships themselves.

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, ldtr said:

CCL is actually in better shape than RCL and NCLH (NCLH in the worst shape of the 3).  All of the major cruise holding companies are going to be constrained for the next 10 years or so.  However, all three of them have demonstrated that occupancy numbers that are near pre covid level.  

 

Respectfully disagree with the order.  I firmly believe that RCL is sitting in the strongest position. Just compare the 10-Q's. RCL also has much stronger occupancy levels, especially when compared to 2019. I Agree that NCL is the canary and that companies are constrained for at least a decade; but I see this like the story of the 3 bears. CCL is too big. NCL is too small. RCL maybe just right.

 

IMO the company to really watch is MSC. Unlike the big 3, MSC was bailed out by Mom and Dad shipping company and is not carrying anywhere near the debt. Considering our interest rates keep rising, that's a massive advantage. 

[Mary229]

7 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Respectfully disagree with the order.  I firmly believe that RCL is sitting in the strongest position. Just compare the 10-Q's. RCL also has much stronger occupancy levels, especially when compared to 2019. I Agree that NCL is the canary and that companies are constrained for at least a decade; but I see this like the story of the 3 bears. CCL is too big. NCL is too small. RCL maybe just right.

 

IMO the company to really watch is MSC. Unlike the big 3, MSC was bailed out by Mom and Dad shipping company and is not carrying anywhere near the debt. Considering our interest rates keep rising, that's a massive advantage. 

Isn’t MSC a privately held company?   If so, we simply have no evidence 

[BermudaBound2014]

5 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

Isn’t MSC a privately held company?   If so, we simply have no evidence 

 

We have MSC's annual reports which show the financial support offered by MSC Shipping. We also know that the shipping business has remained extremely profitable during (and after) covid. And while this was early on in the shutdown, you may find this article interesting:

 

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-container-shippings-historic-boom-funded-a-2b-cruise-bailout

 

 

[Shalandara]

9 hours ago, cgolf1 said:

 

Yes but in this day and age, I look at the roll calls, but never sign my name to them because I don't want to publicly state that I will be on vacation during a certain time.

@cgolf1 As @kazu pointed out it is under a screen name and not your real name.  I will also point out that while these forums are visible to people not signed in as CC users, the same is not true for the roll calls.  You have to be logged in to see those.  (As I often forget when getting notifications in my email and clicking on it -- I do not log in to CC on my phone, only on home computer). 

I lurked a bit before ever posting here (that even meant not making an account at all).  And even then did not join roll call on my first "return to cruising" cruise.  Some of that was for a sense of security.

[Hlitner]

Yes, it is a privately held company with the major owners being the Aponte family.   They benefit from being the largest container ship company in the world which has been immensely profitable during the past few years.  I will add that in our most recent MSC cruise (in the Yacht Club) back in December, there were no "supply chain" shortages, no observed cutbacks, etc.  MSC has recently spun off a new luxury cruise line (their first ship has its maiden voyage in July) and is in the process of building six, 900 passenger luxury all-suite ships.  They also continue to add 1-2 new ships a year (mostly 4000+ pasengers) to their MSC brand.

 

For those curious about this company (now building their own facility at the Port of Miami) the last I looked they had 4 ships cruising in this part of the world.  In terms of the experience, the regular part of their new ships is akin to Carnival in terms of quality, but their ship within a ship "Yacht Club"  (about 200-250 passengers) is a luxury experience in every way except for their cuisine, which is not up to luxury standards (but far better than the cuisine on HAL).

 

Hank

[Mary229]

6 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

We have MSC's annual reports which show the financial support offered by MSC Shipping. We also know that the shipping business has remained extremely profitable during (and after) covid. And while this was early on in the shutdown, you may find this article interesting:

 

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-container-shippings-historic-boom-funded-a-2b-cruise-bailout

 

 

Still a private company.  I would not want to speculate on their financial management.  Of course, there are many much smaller companies on the fringes which may go first if there is another turn down in the upcoming recession.  In hindsight those big loans the cruise lines have are looking golden with the increase in rates. 

[OlsSalt]

MSC - for those who like traveling with a small city - Yacht Club or no Yacht Club:

Preziosa - 4,300

Bellisima - 4,500

Seascape - 5,877

Meraviglia - 5,642

Seaside - 5,420

 

900 passenger MSC ships coming on line will compete with the smaller luxury brands.

No one yet offers HAL's unique range of smaller ships (1200-2000), entry level pricing, unique itineraries, and range of cabin varieties.  

 

My own wish obviously is HAL survives well into the future,  bringing the joys of cruising  and world travel to an entirely different and unique passenger base - the small town at sea, with the upfront expectation all the bells and whistles belong to other cruise lines.

 

If it takes the new HAL behemoths to "pay the bills" on their short bus trips, so be it. 

[Hlitner]

11 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

Still a private company.  I would not want to speculate on their financial management.  Of course, there are many much smaller companies on the fringes which may go first if there is another turn down in the upcoming recession.  In hindsight those big loans the cruise lines have are looking golden with the increase in rates. 

The elder Aponte is said to only be worth $11.4 Billion per Forbes.  The Container ship brand has over 500 ships.  Since they are privately held, they are able to make changes without having to deal with a board or stockholders.   There are quite a few ex HAL employees (including one Senior officer who is a personal friend) who now work for MSC.  Two of their newer ships carry over 6000 passengers (a bit large for my taste).  The company is much better known in Europe where they have a large presence.

 

We have only cruised MSC out of Miami, and our cruises always have a high percentage of Europeans.  It has a very international feel, they do some things right (like having a Production Show every night) and other things that leave much to be desired.  But I have said for about 5 years that their Yacht Club is the best "value" in the entire cruise industry.  Even today, after some recent price increases, one can cruise in the YC for about $400 per passenger day.  This is an all inclusive price (except for tips) that includes unlimited top shelf booze, wine, french champagne, 2 dedicated private dining venues, an expansive lounge with nightly entertainment, etc.  The YC enclave is separated from the rest of the ship by electronic doors (activated by YC cruiser's cards).  NCL's Haven Suite area would be the closest competition to this type of cruising.

 

Hank

[Florida_gal_50]

2 hours ago, ldtr said:

The problems with ships seem to be more related to which cruisers are on which ship than the ships themselves.

When you have a couple cruisers stating the  thing that seems odd.  You’d be ok with shortages of almost all liquor and tons of overcharging.  I hope you will get to experience that first hand if so.  I’d rather be on a well run ship myself.  I’ve been on both in the last year.

[Guest ldtr]

Just now, Florida_gal_50 said:

When you have a couple cruisers stating the  thing that seems odd.  You’d be ok with shortages of almost all liquor and tons of overcharging.  I hope you will get to experience that first hand if so.  I’d rather be on a well run ship myself.  I’ve been on both in the last year.

The ships I have been on during the past year have seemed to be well run with no major issues.  Just pointing out that some seem to be finding issues on the ships they are on, others not finding issues on the same ships and even the same cruise.  

 

Some of the issues are the result of the same direction and policy decisions made by the cruise lines, that get rehashed over and over for years.  Some were due to the restart, most of which appear to have been corrected on my most recent cruises.  Filter out the early restart cruises, and the policy rehashed such as HAL entertainment decisions and the number of issues drop off quite a bit.

[Mary229]

@Hlitner  we still don’t know their finances or their financial management skills.  They may provide a wonderful experience.  I have read many reviews and if they had smaller ships I would give them a try. 

[Guest ldtr]

10 minutes ago, OlsSalt said:

MSC - for those who like traveling with a small city - Yacht Club or no Yacht Club:

Preziosa - 4,300

Bellisima - 4,500

Seascape - 5,877

Meraviglia - 5,642

Seaside - 5,420

 

900 passenger MSC ships coming on line will compete with the smaller luxury brands.

No one yet offers HAL's unique range of smaller ships (1200-2000), entry level pricing, unique itineraries, and range of cabin varieties.  

 

My own wish obviously is HAL survives well into the future,  bringing the joys of cruising  and world travel to an entirely different and unique passenger base - the small town at sea, with the upfront expectation all the bells and whistles belong to other cruise lines.

 

If it takes the new HAL behemoths to "pay the bills" on their short bus trips, so be it. 

A ship below 3000 is not exactly a behemoth when it comes to mass market lines.  HAL is still the lowest average ship size of the mass market lines.  The short Alaska and Caribbean cruises are more focused to get people familiar with the brand, than paying the bills.  

 

The economics are what they are.  HAL passengers want relatively low prices and relatively smaller ship sizes.  If prices did not matter they would all be on Premium lines such as Azamara, Oceania, Viking, etc with their smaller ships.  It is pretty clear where HAL is focusing itself.  Smaller average ship size compared to its competition (adult focused mass market), competitive pricing. with unique longer cruise offerings.  One either likes it and cruises with them or they do not and cruises with someone else.

[Guest ldtr]

10 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

@Hlitner  we still don’t know their finances or their financial management skills.  They may provide a wonderful experience.  I have read many reviews and if they had smaller ships I would give them a try. 

Yacht Club experience generally good, not in Yacht club not so much. (not in yacht club kinda of like Costa)

 

MSC clearly has good financial management and pretty strong finances.  But they are an European focused line and very clear ship within a ship philosophy.  Appeals to some not to others.  Not my first choice.  For that matter not my 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th choice either.

Edited May 23, 2023 by ldtr

[Hlitner]

1 minute ago, Mary229 said:

@Hlitner  we still don’t know their finances or their financial management skills.  They may provide a wonderful experience.  I have read many reviews and if they had smaller ships I would give them a try. 

I am very careful when recommending MSC to suggest that we only suggest their Yacht Club.  But, we are mildly excited by their new cruise line (Explora Journeys) because they are medium sized ships (less than 50,000 tons and only 900 passengers).  The tale (we cannot verify it is true) told by some is that Mrs. Aponte has long wanted a luxury cruise line.  A few years ago, they made the decision to invest Billions into a new line and further decided to operate it independent from MSC.  

 

Explora Journeys has been busy hiring some very good folks from other lines (such as Oceania) and hotel chains.  We expected them to dip into the MSC Yacht Club staff (terrific folks) but they decided to go outside and bring in folks from multiple cruise lines, hotel chains, and high end restaurants.

 

The Explora Journey I ship (currently docked in Italy) is getting ready for her first cruise and it is an interesting design.  There is no Main Dining Room (MDR) but rather, a larger number of smaller dining venues.  There is also no main theater, but several lounges that will be used for entertainment.  The MSC folks have always been leaders, rather than followers, in how they design and operate their ships.  Explora Journeys will be different...but nobody knows whether that is a good thing or not!  We will find out this fall when we try her for an 18 day cruise.   Price-wise, after some price increases the line is competitive with lines like Seabourn and Silverseas.  Those of us who booked early got prices far below what a Neptune Suite would cost.  

 

Like many long time HAL cruisers, we prefer smaller ships (I like no more than 1200 passenger).  While we do cruise on some very large ships, we have never waned in our desire for smaller ships (we are looking at a 38 passenger boat for a cruise in Croatia).  But, as many of us know, small ships usually comes with very high prices :(.  The trick is to find deals on smaller ships that do not break the bank.

 

Hank