X Value Proposition, Inflation and Price Hikes

[Alsmez]

With all the discussion of Celebrity's cost-cutting measures and price hikes, I started getting curious about how my previous cruises on X stacked up against my most recent one (Eclipse to Alaska, May 28, 2023), both in terms of experience and pricing. To try to get a fair comparison, I looked up the stats on all of my previous cruises back to 2014 and put together a price-per-person-per-day (PPPD) chart including things like dining upgrades, included drinks/grats, etc. to see how much we actually paid for our experiences. I also looked up  inflation numbers over the past 10 years: 

 

"The dollar had an average inflation rate of 2.70% per year between 2013 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 30.55%. This means that today's prices are 1.31 times as high as average prices since 2013, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index."

 

So, all else being equal, we should expect to pay 31% more for the same experience today as in 2013. Are you finding that to be true of the cruises you are booking? I was expecting today's numbers to be much, much higher, but after looking at my own cruises (an admittedly small sample), they weren't that far off. For instance, in early 2014 we sailed Reflection to the Caribbean in an A2 for $185 pppd including drinks/grats. This year's AK cruise in an SV was $290 pppd including drinks/grats and a specialty dining package (which I consider equivalent to or better than Blu), for an increase of 56% pppd. More than inflation, but not that much more given that AK is a more expensive market. In 2016, we sailed Reflection in a 2C and paid around $228 pppd with drinks/grats/dining package. Inflation since 2016 is around 27% according to the BLS, and our 2023 cruise was almost exactly 27% more expensive than 2016. I felt both the 2014 and 2016 cruises offered a decent value proposition, though I do remember being surprised at how much more expensive 2016 was than 2014. We also sailed Silhouette in 2018 for $183 pppd, so maybe we overpaid for the 2016 cruise. Still, the numbers aren't shockingly far off from inflation.

 

We also had an AK cruise on Solstice booked and paid for in May 2020 (canceled, obviously), in an A2 with drinks/grats/wifi for $250 pppd. Cumulative price increase since then is around 19% according to BLS. We paid just 16% more in 2023. However, the cuts were noticeable in 2023, especially to dining and wine. As a result, Celebrity's value proposition is starting to look a little less attractive to us, even though the 2023 price was not outrageous compared with 2020.

 

Anyway, I'd be curious to hear from others about their pppd numbers and how they're feeling about the X value proposition post-pandemic. We are eager to try an Edge-class ship, but I'm mostly seeing prices north of $300 pppd (with AI) for an SV in the Carib (we're not interested in the IV), and I'm not sure I'm willing to pay that for a basic Caribbean on X. That said, we're booked on a Virgin Voyages Caribbean sailing in an XL terrace for $295 pppd over New Year's this year, including grats/wifi/dining but no drinks, which I'm guesssing will ultimately bring our pppd price to $350ish. Will we love Virgin $50 pppd more than X? Time will tell, especially as reports of cuts/menu changes etc. on X continue to roll in. 

 

So, what's your magic pppd number for Celebrity? How are the recent changes affecting it? 

 

 

[Stem to Stern]

This will be an interesting exercise.  I am in the process of putting some numbers together for you.  I wasn't going to figure in the OBC.  But if one does, the pppd numbers drop quite dramatically in some cases.

[Alsmez]

52 minutes ago, Stem to Stern said:

I wasn't going to figure in the OBC. 

I figured in any OBC that came with my AI deal, but not any extra that came from my TA. 

[markeb]

3 hours ago, Alsmez said:

We also had an AK cruise on Solstice booked and paid for in May 2020 (canceled, obviously), in an A2 with drinks/grats/wifi for $250 pppd. Cumulative price increase since then is around 19% according to BLS. We paid just 16% more in 2023. However, the cuts were noticeable in 2023, especially to dining and wine. As a result, Celebrity's value proposition is starting to look a little less attractive to us, even though the 2023 price was not outrageous compared with 2020.

 

One interpretation from this calculation is that Celebrity was actually at least 3% underpriced compared to inflation. Would that extra 3% (or so) have potentially decreased cuts? Don't know.

 

One challenge with cruises, especially among CC'ers, is they're frequently booked so far in advance. With a 100 year average rate of inflation around 3% and well established supply chains, you can sell those cruises adjusted for inflation assumptions and be OK. It takes $1,178.92 in May 2023 to have the same buying power as $1000 in January of 2020, almost an 18% increase. From January 2016 to May 2019 the increase was only 8% ($1080.94). That's a pretty massive difference in budget assumptions!

 

And to answer your question, I really don't have a magic PPPD number. The last couple of years have been crazy for everything. Try flying or booking a hotel! I've been through an adult lifetime where inflation was mostly low so I have the same emotional reaction as everyone else when things jump like they have. Even though I can pretty easily adjust for inflation with an online calculator and see that it's often pretty close to what it "should" be.

[Alsmez]

10 minutes ago, markeb said:

One challenge with cruises, especially among CC'ers, is they're frequently booked so far in advance. With a 100 year average rate of inflation around 3% and well established supply chains, you can sell those cruises adjusted for inflation assumptions and be OK. It takes $1,178.92 in May 2023 to have the same buying power as $1000 in January of 2020, almost an 18% increase. From January 2016 to May 2019 the increase was only 8% ($1080.94). That's a pretty massive difference in budget assumptions!

 

This is a very good point indeed. We initially booked our 2023 cruise in November 2022, well after inflation had gone insane but probably not before cruise lines cleared their "inventory" of inflated FCC to be used up. The pppd when we booked was around $310, but eventually came down to $290 pppd through a combination of price drops and better promotions. It would be interesting to know what the final average price for a given cabin class was once all rooms were sold and how that aligns with inflation vs 2020. 

[Lastdance]

All of this is making my head hurt a little.  I love to cruise in suites, but since Celebrity has been over the $500 pppd now for quite some time, that seems to be a benchmark that I use.  In May, we cruised in a Sunset Suite(below $500 pppd) and SV(almost as much pppd with AI) on Beyond.  The itinerary was excellent, but the price expensive.  The suite price was more than double + for 8 days!  I felt both prices were generally worth what I paid when the cruises were first released.  We are really not drinkers, but do enjoy a good selection on vacation.  When I found a cruise on Oceania that was $350 pppd, I jumped on it because it was a new ship out this year, and the price, IMHO, was good.  The price includes OBC from Oceania and my TA, but I am not using that at all; however, it will come in handy paying for gratuities, a few drinks and some tips.  “O" is also going the way of Celebrity with AI beginning next month, but we will not participate.

 

 The itinerary was a huge factor, as it is a TA going to Lisbon from Miami, as we want more time in Portugal, after the cruise. Also, it doesn’t leave until May of 2025, so two years, or so.  Our suite is a PH1, as no PH2’s or PH3’s were available to book.  This would be similar to an S1 sky suite, but a little larger with a walk-in closet.  Food quality is noted to be quite pleasing and above Celebrity.  We are not “foodies,” but do enjoy eating and having a gym onboard!  So, in reality, I have done the math, so to speak, but more in my head than on paper.  Thank you for your post, as I enjoy reading what others have to say about cruising costs/cuts.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Lastdance

[Alsmez]

12 minutes ago, Lastdance said:

I love to cruise in suites, but since Celebrity has been over the $500 pppd now for quite some time.

 

Yes, while I really enjoyed our one cruise in a suite on Summit, I find Celebrity's current suite pricing to be way out of line with the actual suite experience. We were lucky enough to book an S2 on Summit just before her Edgification was announced back in 2018 and paid just $325 pppd - obviously more than any of our other cruises, but WAY less than I have seen on any X ship since. We don't spend a ton of time in our room so the extra space is not worth all that much to us. Luminae was very good, but not necessarily better than a combination of specialty restaurants. The Retreat sundeck was nice, and I'm sure it's even nicer on newer ships designed with the suite life in mind, but we aren't sun worshippers, and found the main pool deck/hot tubs to be mostly deserted when we wanted to use them in any case. For us, the value is not there when low-level suites are more than double the price of a nicer balcony with dining package. That may change as we get older, but for now, no thanks.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Alsmez

[Lastdance]

23 minutes ago, Alsmez said:

 

Yes, while I really enjoyed our one cruise in a suite on Summit, I find Celebrity's current suite pricing to be way out of line with the actual suite experience. We were lucky enough to book an S2 on Summit just before her Edgification was announced back in 2018 and paid just $325 pppd - obviously more than any of our other cruises, but WAY less than I have seen on any X ship since. We don't spend a ton of time in our room so the extra space is not worth all that much to us. Luminae was very good, but not necessarily better than a combination of specialty restaurants. The Retreat sundeck was nice, and I'm sure it's even nicer on newer ships designed with the suite life in mind, but we aren't sun worshippers, and found the main pool deck/hot tubs to be mostly deserted when we wanted to use them in any case. For us, the value is not there when low-level suites are more than double the price of a nicer balcony with dining package. That may change as we get older, but for now, no thanks.

I can understand how you feel about suite prices, but I will say that Beyond blew us away in a sunset suite.  The experience was the best I have had and it was quite a bit under the $500 per day.  The SV, two cabins down, was also excellent, as we would never pay the price Celebrity wanted for suite on that cruise!!!  Opportunity cost is the value we put on cruising, but an SV is an excellent substitution; however, I did miss all the special Retreat areas and crew on an E class ship, but no tears lost at all.  Our butler even gave us our special water...as we are very light drinkers.  Our upcoming suite on Beyond in the Caribbean is around $400 per day; we have not been to the Caribbean in 20 years, so plan to stay on the ship.  Both of us love the Retreat restaurant on deck 17, along with much more shade and the fantastic view.  We have an SV booked without anything included for Ascent next year.  Suite price was too high for us.

Edited June 21, 2023 by Lastdance

[bigbenboys]

Question: What movie is the line. "all my money is tied up in cash."

 

As CD rates are much higher now 4% to 6%. Does that not offsite some of the higher cost for cruising.

[Lastdance]

9 minutes ago, bigbenboys said:

Question: What movie is the line. "all my money is tied up in cash."

 

As CD rates are much higher now 4% to 6%. Does that not offsite some of the higher cost for cruising.

Actually, lots of things offset prices; look at their stock!  I sold mine and made thousands, after I added it to my booked cruises and OBC!   Love Celebrity, but not “married” to the company.

 

I do not know the name of the movie, but could have Googled it, I guess🤑

Edited June 21, 2023 by Lastdance

[Guest 4-2-N-8]

I think when it comes to travel, it is always about what one feels comfortable paying based upon the experience in return.

 

After all, two roads did diverge in a yellow wood -

 

My concern is making it to the destination(s).

 

With Italy and much of Europe, as of late, embroiled in air transportation strikes, I've taken to purchase two different sets of R/T air tickets (on different dates), just in case Italy has another air transport strike on one of my travel dates.

 

I don't want a last minute scramble for the airline to find us (likely) separate seats just to get us there, "somehow."

 

I've read this issue in other cruise line threads this season. Terrible loss for some.

 

Heathrow, Paris, Milan, Rome. Crazy.

Edited June 21, 2023 by 4-2-N-8

[bigbenboys]

8 minutes ago, Lastdance said:

Actually, lots of things offset prices; look at their stock!  I sold mine and made thousands, after I added it to my booked cruises and OBC!   Love Celebrity, but not “married” to the company.

 

I do not know the name of the movie, but could have Googled it, I guess🤑

LOL, I have X stock, just the required 100 shares. I made final payment on our Sept cruise. I had forgot  about the OBC. Thanks

[paulh84]

Here are my Celebrity cruises that I can dig up. 

 

I did not include OBC or TA freebies in my figures because it varies so widely and I don't remember what is what. I personally do not consider the per person per day cost a valid comparison but a lot of people use that as their point of reference. 

 

There are a tons of variables but it ends up looking something like this:

 

My raw average PP/PD is $257.03 or $302.41 when adjusted for inflation between time of booking and May 2023 CPI figures. 

 

If I exclude higher priced suite bookings that changes to PP/PD $217.40 or $248.82 adjusted for inflation.

 

Suite bookings change PP/PD to $390.29 or $409.59 adjusted for inflation. 

 

While my sample size isn't large when looking at similar veranda (not suite) bookings, my PP/PD span is only different about $97 and my $120 on my suites. 

 

Since I have booked everything from very cheap TA group rates to not really great suite rates it's near impossible to accurately get an even comparison. All in all I've seen a difference of about $1,000 total on suite bookings (Reflection vs Beyond). I can live with that. 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by paulh84

[bikerunner]

I use to be able to stay in a price range of 225-275pp per day for AI for usually c1 or aft balcony or aqua class.  This included all my travel costs, air pre hotel and parking if needed.  The part that has gone up the most for me now is the air and pre hotel stays.  The cost f ship I can still find great deals thru the TA's I use not worried there. Still getting around 225 on Concierge pppd with AI.  Yes there is a different discussion to be had about if the product has gone down, discussed on many different threads, but same can be said about many other travel products tbh.  Overall still very satisfied with the product as it offers the relaxation I like.  

[Alsmez]

57 minutes ago, Lastdance said:

but I will say that Beyond blew us away in a sunset suite.  the experience was the best I have had and it was quite a bit under the $500 per day.  The SV, two cabins down, was also excellent, as we would never pay the price Celebrity wanted for s suite on that cruise!!!

 

I have heard great things about the suites on E-class, but the prices are eye-popping these days. I just priced a 7-day Carib on Apex in Feb 2025 and found SVs for around $290 pppd (AI but no dining package), whereas an S1 was $633 pppd on the same sailing and SS closer to $650. That's nuts, IMO. Even if you have to pay $40 pppd to upgrade dining with a regular balcony, you're still paying $320 pppd more for the suite. No way in hell is the Retreat worth that! 🙂 

[2Long2NxtCrz]

We loved the Beyond. And I feel like Celebrity still offers a good value, when I buy far enough in advance. But I don't buy suites. When we cruise, it's generally for the ports so we don't need all the suite extras, thus we're unwilling to pay for them. But as far as I can tell prices are staying fairly consistent in my experience.

 

I have branched out. We've tried Princess and I'd cruise them again, if the ship and itinerary and price point were to our liking. I have two HAL cruises booked. The first, Alaska, I booked HAL specifically because I wanted to be able to do it up right for hubby and make sure he saw Glacier Bay. The second I compared a Boston to Montreal (round trip) on Celebrity to a Boston to Montreal (one-way) in HAL. The HAL ship is much smaller, but the itinerary is much better, so we went with HAL.

 

I know folks, especially on CC, are very attached to their favorite lines. And I appreciate the perks on Celebrity (so close to Elite, but not gonna make it before next year sadly), but none of them are worth not even looking at other lines. Celebrity is still our favorite, but we haven't been on HAL yet, so can't compare.

 

The reason folks cruise are as varied as the people cruising. I know we all like to complain, but each person values different things and they have to make their decisions on what's right for them. We'll see what I think once I'm retired and have more flexibility. I still doubt we'll cruise more than twice a year because by then we'll have the freedom to do some of those longer cruises and I think I've about got hubby to agree that we can sail to Asia or Australia or Europe instead of flying.🤞

 

[Baron Barracuda]

It's hard to draw meaningful conclusions on price trends just by referring back to historical bookings on non-identical  itineraries.  Consider that some itineraries are inherently more expensive and seasonality affects pricing.  Even for a single sailing refundable deposits are pricier than nrd and fares can gyrate wildly in the months leading up to departure.  For example the inaugural Mardi Gras cruise on Equinox in 2017 was a hot ticket.  We booked cc class  when the itinerary was announced for $200pppd and then watched the price more than double over the next year before falling off a cliff after final payment date.  There is also the very small chance that the X sale you took advantage of was truly a sale.

[NMTraveller]

I am more concererned about the shrinkflation,  cuts,  and added fees.  While the cruises are quite a bit more expensive,  the Celebrity shrinkflation,  cuts, and added fees are a bit much.

Edited June 22, 2023 by NMTraveller

[Alsmez]

30 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

It's hard to draw meaningful conclusions on price trends just by referring back to historical bookings on non-identical  itineraries. 

 

True, but that's not what I was going for by looking at my previous cruise spends - my question was more about my personal perception of value for the dollar (and that of other X cruisers). Do the prices I am paying today for cruises that I expect to deliver a similar experience to my previous cruises actually represent a significant price increase (or decrease) from said past cruises after inflation is figured in? For my small sample, the answer is no, not really. Therefore, I wouldn't expect a drastic improvement in quality in terms of dining, wine, entertainment, etc. - but I also wouldn't expect a drastic decline. Unfortunately, my most recent Eclipse cruise did represent at least a moderate decline in several areas. I hope it's due solely to pandemic-related recovery, but my perception that the value proposition of this cruise was somewhat off has me looking more closely at other lines and what my dollars might get me there.

[kr00t0n]

I get what you've done from a raw inflation perspective, but the prices rises and cutbacks would also be influences by 1.5 years of not sailing and the associated debt incurred, and the overall massive increase in supply chain costs (which differ from general consumer inflation rates).

[Whinenowine]

Irrespective of overall price increases, I have to echo the dramatic increase in Retreat pricing.  Last year we were on the Edge in the Caribbean and Millie in Alaska.  I just checked the same itineraries and the suites are 36% higher for the Caribbean cruise and 27% for the Alaskan cruise.  That's a ONE year increase!  With rare exception, this product has lost it's value for me.  Just my anecdotal 2c (which is now worth only 1.6c in X terms).  😁

[Guest ldtr]

4 hours ago, kr00t0n said:

I get what you've done from a raw inflation perspective, but the prices rises and cutbacks would also be influences by 1.5 years of not sailing and the associated debt incurred, and the overall massive increase in supply chain costs (which differ from general consumer inflation rates).

 Keep in mind what is going on in the rest of the travel industry, not just cruising. Hotels  air, land tour prices have gone up far more than cruises. The cruise lines kept their prices lower when they restarted while they were getting people used to the idea of cruising again and getting their occupancy numbers back up. As a result cruise prices have been lower compared to their competition, the rest of the travel industry, than pre covid.

 

Now that occupancy numbers are back up the cruise lines are raising their prices to get back to the normal relationship vs other travel business. They started with onboard spending, now they are raising fares. 

 

They are raising them not because they have to, but because they can. As with the other travel industries they have pricing power (something they usually do not have)  and are taking advantage of it.

 

Each individual will have to make their own value assessment, but as long as travel demand in general is at high as it is, the prices increases will stick for all travel categories

[paulh84]

3 minutes ago, ldtr said:

 Keep in mind what is going on in the rest of the travel industry, not just cruising. Hotels  air, land tour prices have gone up far more than cruises. The cruise lines kept their prices lower when they restarted while they were getting people used to the idea of cruising again and getting their occupancy numbers back up. As a result cruise prices have been lower compared to their competition, the rest of the travel industry, than pre covid.

 

Now that occupancy numbers are back up the cruise lines are raising their prices to get back to the normal relationship vs other travel business. They started with onboard spending, now they are raising fares. 

 

They are raising them not because they have to, but because they can. As with the other travel industries they have pricing power (something they usually do not have)  and are taking advantage of it.

 

Each individual will have to make their own value assessment, but as long as travel demand in general is at high as it is, the prices increases will stick for all travel categories

 

Also keeping in mind that even pre-COVID there were several industry analysts unhappy with the slam dunk easily achievable occupancy levels over 100%. It might be an attractive headline for the cruise line in some instances but for an investor that's not necessarily a good look. 

[Alsmez]

2 hours ago, ldtr said:

Each individual will have to make their own value assessment, but as long as travel demand in general is at high as it is, the prices increases will stick for all travel categories

 

Agreed on both counts. I don't mind paying more when the value is there, or when I feel like I'm getting an acceptable product for the amount I paid. I wasn't bothered at all by the price we paid for our recent Eclipse sailing and IMO it was still a reasonably good value despite certain cutbacks, but the quality of food/beverage definitely got me thinking about how much higher prices could go before I would balk and look elsewhere. Our pre-cruise stay in Vancouver provided an interesting point of comparison, actually - Vancouver is a fairly expensive city, but for our three days there, including a mid-level hotel (in a room about the size of a cruise ship berth!), excellent meals including a Michelin-starred restaurant, many lovely wines/cocktails, and plentiful activities (some which cost extra, some which were free sightseeing), our average spend came out to just about $300 pppd - right around the same price as our cruise. Obviously being at sea is a big draw for us and it's hard to put a dollar value on that, but if the food/dining/entertainment piece goes from very good to barely acceptable on ships, the freedom of land vacations is going to become that much more attractive.

[Lastdance]

Well, when you start getting older and you have the funds to do what you want and your way, that also factors into your decision.  Opportunity cost is alive and well, not to mention different for each individual.  🤑