Standby for Higher Cruise Prices

[LAFFNVEGAS]

 

1 hour ago, POA1 said:

 

Where would you send your ships during the summer season?

I am one to agree they could pull one or two ships from Alaska. They have in the past had more ships in Europe. But I think with air pricing and air problems people are not as brave to venture there.

This is the first year that Princess decided to keep ships going through the summer to Hawaii on the Emerald Princess. These have been sold out very early. I think that would be a great option for HAL especially for ships like Volendam or Zaandam that they tend to have a harder time filling. Hawaii weather does not change much in the summer.

I also think they could do the California Coastals with the stop in Mexico year round, possibly alternate it with going to Hawaii. Doing the 7 day regular Mexico would be hot but actually not drastically PV tends to be more tropical like Hawaii. 

[3rdGenCunarder]

1 hour ago, POA1 said:

True, but HAL already has a bunch of ships in Europe.

 

BTW - I'm very excited for you and "summer." Summer was the best 5 days of the year in Maine. We would change the oil in the snow blower and be free to frolic for the next 72-48 hours.

 

A friend who lived in Buffalo NY said they had two seasons, winter and the 4th of July.

[Destiny0315]

31 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

That is hurricane season.  As recently as 2021 I was chased off of the offshore island for not one, but two hurricane evacuations.  One in June and one in July.  The season is June 1 to November 1

I am well aware that it is considered hurricane season during those five months. That certainly doesn't stop CCL, RCCL, NCL, etc...from running weekly cruises from NYC/NJ and Baltimore(or even Galveston)during those months. In fact every year HAL already runs two transitioning cruises from Montreal and Quebec City down the US coastal hurricane route to FLL in late September. At least in '24 they are keeping the Volendam up here until the first week of October and the Zuiderdam until the second week of November.

[Mary229]

3 minutes ago, Destiny0315 said:

I am well aware that it is considered hurricane season during those five months. That certainly doesn't stop CCL, RCCL, NCL, etc...from running weekly cruises from NYC/NJ and Baltimore(or even Galveston)during those months. In fact every year HAL already runs two transitioning cruises from Montreal and Quebec City down the US coastal hurricane route to FLL in late September. At least in '24 they are keeping the Volendam up here until the first week of October and the Zuiderdam until the second week of November.

Yes, I am aware of that.   I actually think it is good policy to avoid hurricanes.  Anyway are the Azores super hot in the summer, I have only been there in the spring and really loved it. 

[Mary229]

22 minutes ago, 3rdGenCunarder said:

 

A friend who lived in Buffalo NY said they had two seasons, winter and the 4th of July.

A friend of mine in  Jackson Hole said there are two seasons - Winter and Relatives. 

[Destiny0315]

5 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

 Anyway are the Azores super hot in the summer, I have only been there in the spring and really loved it.

What used to be considered super hot is now a relief day in some world locations.🙂 

https://travel.usnews.com/The_Azores_Portugal/When_To_Visit/#:~:text=The%20best%20time,kind%20of%20destination.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Destiny0315

[Mary229]

23 minutes ago, Destiny0315 said:

What used to be considered super hot is now a relief day in some world locations.🙂 

https://travel.usnews.com/The_Azores_Portugal/When_To_Visit/#:~:text=The%20best%20time,kind%20of%20destination.

Those aren’t bad temperatures.  I agree it would be a great round trip destination from Boston. I would go.  I prefer to fly to Boston than the west coast.  

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, Destiny0315 said:

I am well aware that it is considered hurricane season during those five months. That certainly doesn't stop CCL, RCCL, NCL, etc...from running weekly cruises from NYC/NJ and Baltimore(or even Galveston)during those months. In fact every year HAL already runs two transitioning cruises from Montreal and Quebec City down the US coastal hurricane route to FLL in late September. At least in '24 they are keeping the Volendam up here until the first week of October and the Zuiderdam until the second week of November.

 

There have been times I have sailed during Hurricane season. The good thing is that cruise ships can sail around them. I once had a western itinerary turn into a wonderful eastern itinerary with perfect weather while a hurricane was actively moving thru the gulf. . Rarely (but it does happen) will it effect port embarkation or debarkation. But it is smokin hot during that time frame and packed with kids.

 

I suspect HAL doesn't send ships because the summer is family vacation time. HAL is just not set up for most kids. Without roller coasters, laser tag, bumper cars and, at the very least, water slides; most families with kids aren't drawn to HAL (notice I said most).

 

I think this year was a bit of a wild card because no one knew what the covid protocols would be when they were setting up itineraries. Canada was open (although clunky to get into). I would like to see more Iceland/Greenland opportunities, but truth be told, now that I'm retired I intend to enjoy the gorgeous Michigan Summers (I live on an inland lake and we have a cabin on lake superior and Michigan is gorgeous in the simmer). That way I save money and can travel all winter long. 

 

 

 

 

[POA1]

2 hours ago, Destiny0315 said:

Bring a third ship up to Boston for the summer and run a few 10-14 day r/t itineraries to the Caribbean which is currently a totally untapped market from here. Gear it towards the adult market and maybe even develop a 14 day r/t cruise to the Azores. 

The Boston runs are a great idea, but hurricane season and the PVSA get in the way. I'd love to see Bermuda added to the distant foreign ports list. I'm sure that the government has been working on this. 100+ years is almost enough

[Mary229]

I think HAL doesn’t do hurricane season is because they don’t want the potential down time, potential damage and potential refunds. 

[cbr663]

I'm starting to notice some changes to HAL's itineraries that a few years ago I don't think I would have ever seen from HAL.  We have been looking for an ABC cruise on a Pinnacle Class ship and was surprised to see the Rotterdam with a 9 day Southern Caribbean with only 4 ports and another with a Southern Caribbean with an overnight in Aruba making for 3 ports.  Not good itineraries imo.  

[BermudaBound2014]

22 hours ago, CNSJ said:

In the first few seasons following COVID-19, the cruise industry worked hard to get people back on ship.  There were those afraid to sail without masks and those who didn't want to wear one.  Somehow we made it through, but the cruise lines kept losing money as we found our way back aboard.  Now people want to cruise again!  The cruise lines all have big debt loads and need to generate cash.  Bottom line:  HAL needs to make money to pay its debt and return a dividend to its shareholders. 

 

Right now Carnival Corp is boasting very full ships for 2023 and very strong demand in 2024.  Demand is up, supply is pretty much steady (less Carnival recycling Costa ships and the crazy MSC buildout) so the simple facts is prices go up.  Throw in inflation and other things impacting operating costs....and we will see higher prices.  If they reduce the number of ships (get rid of less efficient money makers) - prices have to go up as there is less supply of cabin days. 

 

I would be curious to see the revenue models for the CCL Cruise line family.  Carnival ships may charge less (than HAL) per passenger day at sea for a comparable cabin (Oceanview to Oceanview / Balcony to Balcony) but they likely have a higher number of average passengers per cabin, and my guess is the non fare revenue (booze/speciality/spa etc.) is higher than on HAL.  The most basic formula is revenue minus the cost of goods & services = profit.  I imagine that HAL non-fare revenue per adult passenger per day is 50% lower than Carnival fleet wide.  Throw in more people and the non-fare revenue per square foot of cabin might be in the 65% lower range.  

 

HAL needs to earn a profit.  It's a business, and the forecast is up for the cruise industry.  Prices will rise on everything.  

 

Standby for Higher Cruise Prices.  Deals will be fewer and farther than between.  Cruise less or spend more.  Maybe a bit of both. 

 

 

 

 

As far as the subject of higher cruise prices go, I'll be the lone wolf again and respectfully disagree. First; I'm fairly young and don't expect to see dividends again in my lifetime. The debt is just too high. 

 

Second; the supply of cruise berths is not "steady". There will be over 23,000 new beds to fill each week in 2024. I do agree that everything is going up in price, and so must cruises, but in the end supply and demand rules the financial world. 

 

FYI: Here are the cruise lines new builds for 2024. 

Queen Anne = 3,000

Disney Treasure = 2,500

Sun Princess = 4,300

Icon of the Seas = 7,500

Utopia of the Seas = 5,700

Grand total Appx = 23,000 berths to fill each week

 

And here is 2025 (some ships unnamed)

Princess Ship = 4,300

MSC World = 6,700

Disney = 6,000

RCL = 5,000

NCL = 3,300

MSC = 6,700

Celebrity = 4,000

GRAND TOTAL = 36,000 new beds to fill each week

 

And things don't slow down much for 2026.

 

Regarding revenue. I would also like it if CCL showed us figures for each line. I believe you are wrong about Carnival on board purchases being more expensive that HAL. In fact, I think the opposite might be true. I haven't dug into this deeply, but I have both a Carnival and a Holland America cruise currently booked. Prices for the specialty restaurants are the basically the same. Price to add beverage package is nearly identical, and pricing in the spa is actually cheaper on Carnival as is most items in the pre-cruise gifts section. It appears as though shore excursions are also slightly cheaper, although it's more difficult for me to make a direct comparison. Also, Carnival allows one bottle of wine without a corkage fee and one 12 pack of soda to be brought onboard. In the end, I believe that Carnival cost per item onboard is actually less than HAL. Of course, Carnival ships are bigger and hold more people, so they might have higher on board spending totals.

 

I also agree that you are correct when you state that revenue minus the cost of goods and services equals profit. I believe the cost of servicing 34 Billion dollars worth of debt is going to leave CCL scrambling for people to fill ships. There is no wiggle room. Cruise ships must sail full. Because of this, I expect cruise prices to trend downward, especially for those willing to wait to snag a last minute deal on more ordinary itineraries. HAL has a niche here by offering more exotic itineraries they can keep prices high, but, IMO, the bus runs are going to be very attractively priced for the consumer. 

 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[Mary229]

9 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

especially for those willing to wait to snag a last minute deal. 

Yes, the last minute deals will get better IMHO but the prices will rise for those premium cruises that sell out quickly.  HAL is truly two cruise lines in itself with two different sets of customers.   I sail both but hope to graduate my sister to the longer journeys soon as her career becomes increasingly virtual. 

[kazu]

8 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Cruise ships must sail full. Because of this, I expect cruise prices to trend downward, especially for those willing to wait to snag a last minute deal. 

 

I am seeing an upward trend in pricing and the pricing is higher now after final payment date than it was when I booked long ago.

I suspect pricing may be down in the final payment window for Alaska and Caribbean/Mexico and the other such common itineraries that repeat week after week, but for some of the nice itineraries elsewhere, so far, I am not seeing that to be the case.

 

Only time will tell, I guess.  Just glad I booked my cruise when I did.  

 

[BermudaBound2014]

35 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I think HAL doesn’t do hurricane season is because they don’t want the potential down time, potential damage and potential refunds. 

 

I agree with you most times, but on this I respectfully disagree.

 

Cruise ships can sail around hurricanes without much effort. When was the last time we read about a ship being damaged significantly in a Caribbean Hurricane? Or any down time to speak of?

 

I think HAL doesn't sail in the Caribbean during the summer because they know they aren't set up to attract most families and the Caribbean during the summer is family city! 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

I am seeing an upward trend in pricing and the pricing is higher now after final payment date than it was when I booked long ago.

I suspect pricing may be down in the final payment window for Alaska and Caribbean/Mexico and the other such common itineraries that repeat week after week, but for some of the nice itineraries elsewhere, so far, I am not seeing that to be the case.

 

Only time will tell, I guess.  Just glad I booked my cruise when I did.  

 

 

I agree. I was editing my post as you were responding. I added this snippit:

 

HAL has a niche here by offering more exotic itineraries they can keep prices high, but, IMO, the bus runs are going to be very attractively priced for the consumer. 

 

The more exotic itineraries will likely demand much higher pricing. Supply and demand as I mentioned. This bodes well for HAL. Not so great for Carnival. 

[Mary229]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I agree with you most times, but on this I respectfully disagree.

 

Cruise ships can sail around hurricanes without much effort. When was the last time we read about a ship being damaged significantly in a Caribbean Hurricane? Or any down time to speak of?

 

I think HAL doesn't sail in the Caribbean during the summer because they know they aren't set up to attract most families and the Caribbean during the summer is family city! 

 

 

There has been damage in harbor.  I am not in the research mode today but it was just last year or 2021 that some ships suffered damage while safe harbored in Florida.   Down time is losing a week due to a hurricane then adding insult to injury having to arrange travel and refund the cruise for the entire ship.  
 

Personally it is not for me.  I was just down on the coast last week and it was incredibly hot and those words are being spoken by a person living in Texas

[CNSJ]

44 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

As far as the subject of higher cruise prices go, I'll be the lone wolf again and respectfully disagree. First; I'm fairly young and don't expect to see dividends again in my lifetime. The debt is just too high. 

 

Second; the supply of cruise berths is not "steady". There will be over 23,000 new beds to fill each week in 2024. I do agree that everything is going up in price, and so must cruises, but in the end supply and demand rules the financial world. 

 

FYI: Here are the cruise lines new builds for 2024. 

Queen Anne = 3,000

Disney Treasure = 2,500

Sun Princess = 4,300

Icon of the Seas = 7,500

Utopia of the Seas = 5,700

Grand total Appx = 23,000 berths to fill each week

 

And here is 2025 (some ships unnamed)

Princess Ship = 4,300

MSC World = 6,700

Disney = 6,000

RCL = 5,000

NCL = 3,300

MSC = 6,700

Celebrity = 4,000

GRAND TOTAL = 36,000 new beds to fill each week

 

And things don't slow down much for 2026.

 

Regarding revenue. I would also like it if CCL showed us figures for each line. I believe you are wrong about Carnival on board purchases being more expensive that HAL. In fact, I think the opposite might be true. I haven't dug into this deeply, but I have both a Carnival and a Holland America cruise currently booked. Prices for the specialty restaurants are the basically the same. Price to add beverage package is nearly identical, and pricing in the spa is actually cheaper on Carnival as is most items in the pre-cruise gifts section. It appears as though shore excursions are also slightly cheaper, although it's more difficult for me to make a direct comparison. Also, Carnival allows one bottle of wine without a corkage fee and one 12 pack of soda to be brought onboard. In the end, I believe that Carnival cost per item onboard is actually less than HAL. Of course, Carnival ships are bigger and hold more people, so they might have higher on board spending totals.

 

I also agree that you are correct when you state that revenue minus the cost of goods and services equals profit. I believe the cost of servicing 34 Billion dollars worth of debt is going to leave CCL scrambling for people to fill ships. There is no wiggle room. Cruise ships must sail full. Because of this, I expect cruise prices to trend downward, especially for those willing to wait to snag a last minute deal on more ordinary itineraries. HAL has a niche here by offering more exotic itineraries they can keep prices high, but, IMO, the bus runs are going to be very attractively priced for the consumer. 

 

 

 

Good points and I appreciate your analysis.  My comment on on board spending is based on Carnival ships having more bars and shorter cruises.  People IMHO drink more per day on a short cruise.

 

New Builds - Retiring ships = New Berths to sell.

I think that many older less efficient ships will be retired with an eye toward profitability.

 

I hope you are right and I am wrong.  Id love to have lower priced cruises!

[CNSJ]

34 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I agree with you most times, but on this I respectfully disagree.

 

Cruise ships can sail around hurricanes without much effort. When was the last time we read about a ship being damaged significantly in a Caribbean Hurricane? Or any down time to speak of?

 

I think HAL doesn't sail in the Caribbean during the summer because they know they aren't set up to attract most families and the Caribbean during the summer is family city! 

 

 

Hurricanes usually only impact a ship for a day or so as the storm blows by.  The bigger impact can be flight issues impacting those arriving and departing, which (unless you booked flights thru cruise line) are not the cruise lines problem.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

13 minutes ago, CNSJ said:

Good points and I appreciate your analysis.  My comment on on board spending is based on Carnival ships having more bars and shorter cruises.  People IMHO drink more per day on a short cruise.

 

New Builds - Retiring ships = New Berths to sell.

I think that many older less efficient ships will be retired with an eye toward profitability.

 

I hope you are right and I am wrong.  Id love to have lower priced cruises!

 

Thanks! I appreciate you not being offended. So much is lost in text, including kindness even when disagreeing :). :). :).

 

I do agree that the exotic cruises could very well end up being significantly higher. I'm typically a last minute booker but I have changed my strategy now that I'm booking longer cruises. I'm about to put a deposit down on a 2025 Antarctica cruise and for me, that's unheard of. I think that it's those type of unique itineraries that are going to remain expensive. Supply and demand 🙂

 

I absolutely agree that people drink more per day on short cruises. I haven't read a study on that, but my antidotal evidence seems overwhelming. I believe that most people who are on CCL short cruises buy the drink package but my guess is they get closer to the 15 drink limit as a whole. Carnival was the first lines to limit drinks packages to 15 per day!  I can't imagine drinking 15 of anything other than water per day (and even that's a stretch), let alone alcohol. 

 

PS: What ships do you see retiring? There are several under the CCL umbrella that are candidates, but unfortunately those are all the smaller ships. Don't get me wrong, I do enjoy a mega ship on occasion. But I don't want that to be my only choice. 

Edited July 29, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[Destiny0315]

Here is a not so out of the box idea for HAL to create some extra revenue using their established presence in Boston and their success in running for years now the themed VOV cruise from here. With the USA's 250th anniversary of the American Revolution coming up and being celebrated on July 4, 2026, how about building an itinerary that would sail from Boston to the UK and back and also one from the UK to the US and back, maybe starting a couple of times during '25 and then again in '26. All the while keying on the history of the events with maybe some special programs/speakers onboard. With the 250th anniversary coming up in just five months on December 16 of the Boston Tea Party it would be a perfect time to introduce and promote these special sailings.

[CNSJ]

10 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

What ships do you see retiring?

Both of Carnival's Fantasy Class and both Coral and Island Princess.  The only saving grace for Princess ships may be the ability to use the original Panama Canal Locks.  

 

These ships all need about the same number of deck officers to run as a ship thats twice its size.  Same goes for environmental officers, hotel manager etc.  Bigger has economies of scale.

 

[RD64]

7 hours ago, OlsSalt said:

WSJ "Off Duty" today highlights taking a cruise:

7-day  HALAlaska - $329

7-day Celebrity Mediterranean - $1,099

6-day Virgin Caribbean - $1,820

7-day AquaBlu - Indonesia - $8,960

4- day MSC - Bahamas - $239

 

Leading the value cruise world yet again, Holland America

Just an fyi - the $329 to Alaska is also available to Canadians at $329 CAD -

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Second; the supply of cruise berths is not "steady". There will be over 23,000 new beds to fill each week in 2024.

 

The good thing about so many new ships is that cruise lines tend to bring up prices steeply on the new builds (some just can't resist sailing on the newest, shiniest ships), while prices on their older ships stays steady or even declines a bit. 

 

And -- extra bonus -- the older ships are often given some of the more interesting itineraries. 

 

I'm okay with older. 😉

[cruisemom42]

9 minutes ago, CNSJ said:

Both of Carnival's Fantasy Class and both Coral and Island Princess.  The only saving grace for Princess ships may be the ability to use the original Panama Canal Locks.  

 

These ships all need about the same number of deck officers to run as a ship thats twice its size.  Same goes for environmental officers, hotel manager etc.  Bigger has economies of scale.

 

 

Doesn't Princess use one or both of those smaller ships for their world cruises though?