Arcadia or Aurora first to go

[terrierjohn]

16 minutes ago, twotravellersLondon said:

 

 

We think that your analysis is bang to rights and P&O really do have two quite different offers.

 

We think back to the days of Trust House Forte... before it was taken over by Grenada and remember that Rocco and his family recognised that they has some very divergent hotels in the company and decided to capitalise on in by placing these is "different groups."

 

Perhaps, just perhaps, there is a place for these ships to be marketed as something like... "P&O Heritage."

Unless there is a marked divergence in death rates and ageing, then the number of potential passengers for Arcadia and Aurora should remain unchanged, and with the increase in the UK population and people living longer, it could even grow.

Of course it's by no means certain that the newer septagenarians will enjoy the same style of cruising as the current ones, but equally they might.

So it is possible that there will continue to be a demand for the 2 little ships, even if they do need replacing sometime in the future.

[Denarius]

1 hour ago, Selbourne said:

You are quite right that P&O don’t target mature cruisers any more, but isn’t the issue more about the fact that Aurora and Arcadia don’t appeal to the target market that you so accurately describe, whereas Iona and Arvia don’t appear to a lot of the older traditional cruisers? Generalisations, I know, and there are plenty of exceptions (including some forum members) both ways, but more accurate than not overall I suspect. 
 

Whilst the average age of P&O cruisers may well be 42, that isn’t universal across all ships. In fact it varies enormously. We’ve done quite a few cruises on Aurora where the average age has been around 75, whereas we’ve been on many cruises on the larger ships where the average age has been 30 years lower. These aren’t my guesstimations, but facts quoted by the Captains in the welcome addresses. 
 

The new generation of cruisers want all the bells and whistles that the new ships have (entertainment, dining choices etc etc) and would find Aurora and Arcadia to be severely lacking in that regard. Equally, many of those who have been on countless cruises will find the very limited and repetitive itineraries of the behemoths to be unappealing and will prefer the more port intensive (and smaller ports) itineraries that Aurora and Arcadia do. Very different markets but obviously the latter is a declining market whereas the former is expanding, hence P&Os market re-positioning. As you say, interesting times ahead. 

I agree with most of what you write, except for the final sentence.

I believe that the market for traditional cruises such as those on Arcadia and Aurora has probably not changed much this century, and will not do so. There will always be a market for voyages to interesting ports on smaller ships offering a more intimate experience. What has changed is that the overall cruise market has grown much larger, expanded by people who would not previously have considered a cruise. The expectations of the new cruisers are different than the more traditional ones, with more emphais on onboard facilities and entertainment. A floating resort hotel which is as important a destination as the ports visited, pehaps more so. P&O obviously see the later market as their main one. Whether and for how long they will also compete in the more traditional market in competition with the likes of Viking, Saga, Oceania and Azamara remains to be seen.

[majortom10]

2 hours ago, twotravellersLondon said:

 

 

We think that your analysis is bang to rights and P&O really do have two quite different offers.

 

We think back to the days of Trust House Forte... before it was taken over by Grenada and remember that Rocco and his family recognised that they has some very divergent hotels in the company and decided to capitalise on in by placing these is "different groups."

 

Perhaps, just perhaps, there is a place for these ships to be marketed as something like... "P&O Heritage."

Think P&O tried that a few years ago but the opposite way with Ocean Village 1&2 but didn't last long. Personally think P&O are only interested in one way and that is the big Arvia/Iona etc with younger cruiser's who are happy to spend onboard with different excursions and drinks packages. Once the Aurora/Arcadia clientele start declining or the get a knock on the door from an interested buyer they will be gone. Then P&O will only have one type of cruising that is for the megaship brigade.

[Dorset cruise fan]

On our recent Northern lights cruise on Aurora we might quite a few young couples who had done their first cruise on Iona and were now trying other ships. None of them expressed disappointment in the lack of venues but instead were thoroughly enjoying the smaller ship feel. I think if the new ships are encouraging new people to try cruising then they may naturally move on to different ships and enjoy each in a different way. If the itinerary is right and they have got a taste for cruising then why not try a different ship?

[Selbourne]

23 minutes ago, Dorset cruise fan said:

On our recent Northern lights cruise on Aurora we might quite a few young couples who had done their first cruise on Iona and were now trying other ships. None of them expressed disappointment in the lack of venues but instead were thoroughly enjoying the smaller ship feel. I think if the new ships are encouraging new people to try cruising then they may naturally move on to different ships and enjoy each in a different way. If the itinerary is right and they have got a taste for cruising then why not try a different ship?

True, but we took our two daughters on Arcadia when they were in their early to mid 20s and they described it as a floating nursing home 😂 

[Dorset cruise fan]

1 hour ago, Selbourne said:

True, but we took our two daughters on Arcadia when they were in their early to mid 20s and they described it as a floating nursing home 😂 

I think the destinations make a difference 

[Dorset cruise fan]

We took pur daughter on Arcadia for her 18th Birthday and she loved it

[Selbourne]

5 minutes ago, Dorset cruise fan said:

I think the destinations make a difference 

It was the fjords which they loved. They just didn’t like the ship and the fact that they were around 50 years younger than the vast majority of other passengers!. In all fairness, whilst we love Aurora, we didn’t particularly like Arcadia either!

[Ardennais]

My eldest enjoyed her cruise with friends on Arcadia last year- late 20s. Our three had a great time on Aurora too when they were older teenagers before it became adult only. 

[twotravellersLondon]

18 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

Unless there is a marked divergence in death rates and ageing, then the number of potential passengers for Arcadia and Aurora should remain unchanged, and with the increase in the UK population and people living longer, it could even grow.

Of course it's by no means certain that the newer septagenarians will enjoy the same style of cruising as the current ones, but equally they might.

So it is possible that there will continue to be a demand for the 2 little ships, even if they do need replacing sometime in the future.

 

And a significant change in the death rates in the UK and age of the population is exactly what the Government's Office for National Statistics is predicting as a result of the baby-boomer generation working their way through life.

 

Currently the UK birth rate is about 11.267 per 1.000 and falling... (the final figure in 2022 was the lowest since 2002.) The UK death rate is currently 9.100 per 1.000 and rising. It's predicted to peak at 11.101 per 1.000 in 2058.

 

The Government's projection are that during the 10 years between mid-2020 and mid-2030, 6.6 million people will be born but 6.7 million people will die and by 2025 there will be more deaths than births. Natural change is the difference between the number of live births and deaths in the UK. 

 

Currently the biggest age group in the UK are 55-59 year olds... the last of the baby-boomers... about 4,187,002 people make up 6.8% of the UK population. The 50-54 year olds are only 6.6%, the 45-49 year olds are even smaller at only 5.9 %... only 4,004,632 pe9ple but that number will be smaller due to mortality by the time that same group are 1o years older.

 

The latest Public Health England forecasts show that life expectancy is likely to remain the same or decline... as it has already done in Scotland.

 

(The off projected population increase in the tabloids is based on increased migration into the UK... that's really not appropriate to discuss here.)

 

This is not good news for those aspects of the cruise industry relying on the more mature clients.  It means that the number of potential passengers for Arcadia and Aurora will decline.

 

Add to that the fact that the UK average disposable income is now only about the same as it was in 2007/2008 and the up and coming cruisers who are currently in late 40s and early 50s have often missed out of final salary pensions, high annuity rates while acting as the "bank of Mum & Dad" and now face higher interest rates and... .  It means that the smaller number of potential passengers for Arcadia and Aurora may have less money to spend on cruising than the current counterparts.

 

It is possible that there will be sufficient demand in the next few years for these two ships but demographically... there are some strong headwinds as well.

 

You can find out more... 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2020basedinterim#births-deaths-and-migration

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-profile-for-england-2018/chapter-1-population-change-and-trends-in-life-expectancy

[terrierjohn]

8 minutes ago, twotravellersLondon said:

 

And a significant change in the death rates in the UK and age of the population is exactly what the Government's Office for National Statistics is predicting as a result of the baby-boomer generation working their way through life.

 

Currently the UK birth rate is about 11.267 per 1.000 and falling... (the final figure in 2022 was the lowest since 2002.) The UK death rate is currently 9.100 per 1.000 and rising. It's predicted to peak at 11.101 per 1.000 in 2058.

 

The Government's projection are that during the 10 years between mid-2020 and mid-2030, 6.6 million people will be born but 6.7 million people will die and by 2025 there will be more deaths than births. Natural change is the difference between the number of live births and deaths in the UK. 

 

Currently the biggest age group in the UK are 55-59 year olds... the last of the baby-boomers... about 4,187,002 people make up 6.8% of the UK population. The 50-54 year olds are only 6.6%, the 45-49 year olds are even smaller at only 5.9 %... only 4,004,632 pe9ple but that number will be smaller due to mortality by the time that same group are 1o years older.

 

The latest Public Health England forecasts show that life expectancy is likely to remain the same or decline... as it has already done in Scotland.

 

(The off projected population increase in the tabloids is based on increased migration into the UK... that's really not appropriate to discuss here.)

 

This is not good news for those aspects of the cruise industry relying on the more mature clients.  It means that the number of potential passengers for Arcadia and Aurora will decline.

 

Add to that the fact that the UK average disposable income is now only about the same as it was in 2007/2008 and the up and coming cruisers who are currently in late 40s and early 50s have often missed out of final salary pensions, high annuity rates while acting as the "bank of Mum & Dad" and now face higher interest rates and... .  It means that the smaller number of potential passengers for Arcadia and Aurora may have less money to spend on cruising than the current counterparts.

 

It is possible that there will be sufficient demand in the next few years for these two ships but demographically... there are some strong headwinds as well.

 

You can find out more... 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2020basedinterim#births-deaths-and-migration

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-profile-for-england-2018/chapter-1-population-change-and-trends-in-life-expectancy

All of the above may be correct, however the UK population in 1950 was 50 million, and it is predicted to be 70 million in 2035.

I rest my case.

[twotravellersLondon]

15 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

All of the above may be correct, however the UK population in 1950 was 50 million, and it is predicted to be 70 million in 2035.

I rest my case.

 

You need to look at the Government's data and predictions to understand the future market. P&O's statisticians do.

Edited December 22, 2023 by twotravellersLondon

[david63]

35 minutes ago, twotravellersLondon said:

It is possible that there will be sufficient demand in the next few years for these two ships but demographically... there are some strong headwinds as well.

I have no doubt that what you are quoting is correct but your analysis has not factored in the fact that according to Moley both Arcadia and Aurora only have, at best, another 10 years in the fleet.

 

I would not be at all surprised to find that Carnival have also looked at that data (and much more) when doing their long term forward planning

Edited December 22, 2023 by david63

[paulatsea]

Whatever the stats I am sure there will always be enough of us who like the Aurora/Arcadia/Adults only cruises to fill them up for years to come.

 

[Selbourne]

1 hour ago, twotravellersLondon said:

Add to that the fact that the UK average disposable income is now only about the same as it was in 2007/2008 and the up and coming cruisers who are currently in late 40s and early 50s have often missed out of final salary pensions, high annuity rates while acting as the "bank of Mum & Dad" and now face higher interest rates and... .  It means that the smaller number of potential passengers for Arcadia and Aurora may have less money to spend on cruising than the current counterparts.

Exactly this. The next generation of older cruisers won’t (on average) have even remotely the same level of income in retirement as current retirees. That’s why P&O have completely changed their marketing strategy and why, sadly, I can’t see them replacing the likes of Aurora and Arcadia when they go. The best we can hope for is, as somebody suggested, converting Ventura or Azura to an adult only ship.

[Selbourne]

1 hour ago, terrierjohn said:

All of the above may be correct, however the UK population in 1950 was 50 million, and it is predicted to be 70 million in 2035.

I rest my case.

Terrifying statistic and no wonder that everything is now stretched to breaking point. Growth like that is simply not sustainable. Any redundant cruise ships will be needed for housing!

[paulatsea]

4 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Exactly this. The next generation of older cruisers won’t (on average) have even remotely the same level of income in retirement as current retirees. That’s why P&O have completely changed their marketing strategy and why, sadly, I can’t see them replacing the likes of Aurora and Arcadia when they go. The best we can hope for is, as somebody suggested, converting Ventura or Azura to an adult only ship.

That would be good - I hope they keep at least one for us !

[david63]

8 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

The best we can hope for is, as somebody suggested, converting Ventura or Azura to an adult only ship.

Another option would be to have some adult only cruises on some ships - after all for a large part of the year the majority of cruises are effectively adult only anyway.

[Selbourne]

7 minutes ago, david63 said:

Another option would be to have some adult only cruises on some ships - after all for a large part of the year the majority of cruises are effectively adult only anyway.

 Good point. I think Ambassador do that?

[zap99]

18 hours ago, majortom10 said:

Think P&O tried that a few years ago but the opposite way with Ocean Village 1&2 but didn't last long. Personally think P&O are only interested in one way and that is the big Arvia/Iona etc with younger cruiser's who are happy to spend onboard with different excursions and drinks packages. Once the Aurora/Arcadia clientele start declining or the get a knock on the door from an interested buyer they will be gone. Then P&O will only have one type of cruising that is for the megaship brigade.

Megaship brigade 🤣. 20 years ago Aurora was one of those new fangled behemoths.

[zap99]

14 hours ago, Dorset cruise fan said:

On our recent Northern lights cruise on Aurora we might quite a few young couples who had done their first cruise on Iona and were now trying other ships. None of them expressed disappointment in the lack of venues but instead were thoroughly enjoying the smaller ship feel. I think if the new ships are encouraging new people to try cruising then they may naturally move on to different ships and enjoy each in a different way. If the itinerary is right and they have got a taste for cruising then why not try a different ship?

We didn't start cruising until it became less " stuffy ". We have no intention of moving to the old stuffy, traditional cruises. That's why we didn't cruise until 2000. What music did those old folks listen to when they were in their teens. In my case Cream, Led Zeplin etc. Mario Lanza and Mat Munroe ? Were old in my parents youth. Big ships are fine.

[paulatsea]

20 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

 Good point. I think Ambassador do that?

Yes but it’s the other way around ! They are adults only usually but have a few multi generational ones in the holidays.

[paulatsea]

1 minute ago, paulatsea said:

Yes but it’s the other way around ! They are adults only usually but have a few multi generational ones in the holidays.

Fred Olsen used to to that as well - had adults only cruises on all of their ships for some itineraries. They no longer have any adults only ones.

[zap99]

34 minutes ago, david63 said:

Another option would be to have some adult only cruises on some ships - after all for a large part of the year the majority of cruises are effectively adult only anyway.

As long as they keep Wallace and Gromit on board.

[john watson]

On 12/20/2023 at 4:48 PM, molecrochip said:

Ventura is a grand class ship. Grand Princess, the first, debuted in 1998! 2 years before Aurora and 7 years before Arcadia.

 

As has already been mentioned cruise ships have a normal lifespan.  Grand Princess was the biggest cruise ship in the world, hence the name I think.  Two Grand class ships have left Princess Cruise Line and moved to P&O Australia, Golden Princess and Star Princess. Carnival Corporation has a major influence in what happens across the brands.  Arcadia was originally built for Cunard and was switched to P&O late in the building process.  If Carnival allocates another new build big ship to P&O (UK), a decision may have to be made.  The main problem in my opinion is selling off decent ships for a good price to a rival operator outside Carnival.  On the other hand the various Carnival brands might want a smaller ship.  One hopes a good outcome results in the evolution of P&O. Things change over the years and so do passengers.

 

Regards John