Let's pull out our Crystal Ball

[TEXASMUNK]

Remember after 9-11 how the cruise lines began moving their fleets aroudn the USA?

It started the trend towards ships being based in Galveston, NYC, Baltimore, New Orleans, etc.

 

We are all aware of fuel surcharges from the cruise lines.

 

We are all aware of the rush to position ships in Europe.

 

So here is the question:

 

As airline ticket prices soar, and the cost of getting to Miami or Rome or Barcelona keeps going up, what do you think the cruise lines will do?

 

Go back to more year round home ports, like Galveston?

 

Ignore air fare costs and hope they fill all the ships crusing the Med?

 

Reduce number of ports of call and just cruise slower so as to reduce fuel costs?

 

Your thoughts???

[Phamer55]

Well, I do think that Med cruises will continue to be hot, as more Europeans will be taking those cruises because air fare will be cheaper for them then to go to the Caribbean. But you are right, as air fare increases to go to Florida, less people can afford to fly there to cruise. I'm hoping newer ships come out to the West Coast to compensate, just like the Mariner is next year.

[PattyG12]

Bring more choices to Baltimore, Norfolk, New York

[gxchan]

Well, I do think that Med cruises will continue to be hot, as more Europeans will be taking those cruises because air fare will be cheaper for them then to go to the Caribbean. But you are right, as air fare increases to go to Florida, less people can afford to fly there to cruise. I'm hoping newer ships come out to the West Coast to compensate, just like the Mariner is next year.

 

I would love it if more ships--old or new--cruised out of San Francisco. (I noticed you are from the Bay Area, too, :D )

[wolfcathorse]

Americans aren't the only cruise market. RCI is going after the European and Asian cruisers as well. I don't think repositioning ships will happen. Since RCI is up sizing its fleet they'll probably continue the sell off of the smaller ones and force everyone to sail the big ones. Then what I would do is offer a cruise every 2 weeks instead of every week, sail only full. This is probably why RCI's stock got degraded to junk bond status. The profits are going to tank and RCI has this huge debt load.

[Cruising89143]

From what I have read, it's not the Americans that are rushing to book the ships in Europe but the Europeans themselves. I have read quite a few articles on Seatrader stating that the growth in Europe is out pacing that of the US. I don't expect to see the cruise lines in any rush to move ships back here as long as the Caribbean remains stagnant.

[Phamer55]

That would be awesome if we could get more cruises out of SF. Sadly, we seem to get fewer and fewer each year. We are in desparate need of a new pier. Here's a link to an article to the LATEST news on a proposed new pier.

 

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/07/BA2L100C0N.DTL&hw=pier+plan&sn=002&sc=976

 

Sadly, if nothing is done, Pier 35 may fall apart (could happen within next 5 years) and then we have no cruises!

[NiniB]

I agree.. with the euro higher & pax willing to pay abroad it only make sense (business wise) for them to continue the trend or increase it... :eek:

[Arizona Cruz Chic]

Great question and food for thought.

 

I think with the Euro being higher it will remain the leader and cruises will be stronger in that market.

 

With that said, I wish they would offer more American ports.....lots of folks would be happier, but the cruise lines will go where the money is. :(

 

***

[gxchan]

That would be awesome if we could get more cruises out of SF. Sadly, we seem to get fewer and fewer each year. We are in desparate need of a new pier. Here's a link to an article to the LATEST news on a proposed new pier.

 

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/07/BA2L100C0N.DTL&hw=pier+plan&sn=002&sc=976

 

Sadly, if nothing is done, Pier 35 may fall apart (could happen within next 5 years) and then we have no cruises!

 

 

We can keep our fingers crossed but as a native San Franciscan and knowing our Board of Supervisors, the pier will have to be literally falling into the bay before anything is done. I can see the cruise ships docked from my office and noticed we have only had one or two so far this year! An RCI ship relocating to Alaska will be here next month but otherwise it looks like we aren't going to have many opportunities to sail out of SF this year. Even Princess isn't coming to SF this summer.

[polodad]

We can keep our fingers crossed but as a native San Franciscan and knowing our Board of Supervisors, the pier will have to be literally falling into the bay before anything is done. I can see the cruise ships docked from my office and noticed we have only had one or two so far this year! An RCI ship relocating to Alaska will be here next month but otherwise it looks like we aren't going to have many opportunities to sail out of SF this year. Even Princess isn't coming to SF this summer.

 

My understanding is they are actually trying to raise the port charges in SF & Princess may NOT be here in 2009.

[Lynnees]

The cruiselines are positioning themselves for the European market. If you are in England for example, you can fly Ryan Air for 0 plus tax. You pay for your luggage and tax only. How long with that last Not very I would think but nevertheless, air in Europe is cheaper and it's easy to get around on trains etc.

 

As it's a relatively new market with "new" customers you can bet they will be catering to the European market for some time to come. The American market is slowly going down the tubes, at least for now and as long as you have politicans who want to make it more difficult as well as the lousy air service and high cost of fuel how can they not cater to the Europeans.

 

Look for Carnival/Princess et al have done. They had to refund the fuel surcharge for those already booked andd promptly raised the surcharge on new bookings.

 

They can price themselves out of the people they need to cultivate the most - middle income families.

 

Marilyn

[cb at sea]

Bring more choices to Baltimore, Norfolk, New York

 

AMEN to that!

[shawn&angie]

I know I would be interested in more east coast ports as they may offer us an opportunity to drive to the ship versus flying. (could be a real savings)

[gatour]

I believe that the 2009 schedule is a good precursor for the next several years. The Med has been a good market for them, the ports are closer together and they are very port intensive. The last two items mean less fuel burned so better profits.

 

Here in the States, I think you will see some tweaking of schedule where they don't go to ports where they have to sail at "full steam" to get to. I would also expect to see some additional time in port.

[madforcruising]

I believe that the 2009 schedule is a good precursor for the next several years. The Med has been a good market for them, the ports are closer together and they are very port intensive. The last two items mean less fuel burned so better profits.

 

Here in the States, I think you will see some tweaking of schedule where they don't go to ports where they have to sail at "full steam" to get to. I would also expect to see some additional time in port.

 

I doubt the additional port time. While sailing is expensive with rising fuel costs, port time is expensive for them as well. They have to pay high port fees for being docked and they don´t get as much onboard revenue as people don´t drink when ashore, and shops and casinos have to remain closed.

 

I can rather see them shorten port time in order to pay less fees, open up casino and shops earlier again and sail at less speed - burn less fuel - to next port.

 

 

As for the European/Asian/SA cruises, I think cruise lines will keep their ships there. The main goal is not to get the US market to move there for cruises but to attract new markets. So what I see in the future is more of an international mix of pax on the ships and some cruises may not hafe the majority from the US anymore.

 

Thas´t my look into the crystal ball;)

[Lynn the Cruiser]

I would like to see more out of Bayonne and Philadelphia. We usually go out of Bayonne one year, and fly to Miami the next. I don't want to keep going on the Explorer even though I love the Explorer. Also, my daughter went to Bermuda on the Empress out of Philly and now with the Empress gone, I don't think ANY RCI ship leaves from Philly.:(

[gxchan]

My understanding is they are actually trying to raise the port charges in SF & Princess may NOT be here in 2009.

 

I've heard that Princess won't be back, as well. Higher fees for everything seems to be the way of life now. I would pay more to cruise from SF, at least the same amount it costs me to fly across country and stay in a hotel. I just keep hoping.

[dolfinmusic]

I would like to see more out of Bayonne and Philadelphia. We usually go out of Bayonne one year, and fly to Miami the next. I don't want to keep going on the Explorer even though I love the Explorer. Also, my daughter went to Bermuda on the Empress out of Philly and now with the Empress gone, I don't think ANY RCI ship leaves from Philly.:(

 

I do not think RCI has any more plans to bring ships to Philly :( We also sailed on the Explorer and had a great time but we like to sail on a different ship each time. Maybe 2010 will bring a different RCI ship to Bayonne. There is always Baltimore - is that too far?

[Rancher Dave]

I believe that the 2009 schedule is a good precursor for the next several years. The Med has been a good market for them, the ports are closer together and they are very port intensive. The last two items mean less fuel burned so better profits.

 

Here in the States, I think you will see some tweaking of schedule where they don't go to ports where they have to sail at "full steam" to get to. I would also expect to see some additional time in port.

 

 

Yes that does help generate better revenue. I think though in Winter they still have no choice but bring the ships back here and the crossings are not exactly huge money makers all the non stop chugging along with loads of less expensive fares aboard.

 

As someone else said 2009 schedule is a good peek at the next few years most likely, subject to the injection of the new ships and those associated changes.

[Cruising89143]

While there are new ships coming into service there are also ships leaving. RCI is removing two ships this year and adding one. When added up, it will be about the same amount of berths since the Independence is a Freedom class ship and the Empress and Sovereign were smaller. Expect the Majesty and Monarch to leave in 2009 and 2010 with the two Genesis class ships coming into service. Added berths but not ships.

[Lynnees]

While there are new ships coming into service there are also ships leaving. RCI is removing two ships this year and adding one. When added up, it will be about the same amount of berths since the Independence is a Freedom class ship and the Empress and Sovereign were smaller. Expect the Majesty and Monarch to leave in 2009 and 2010 with the two Genesis class ships coming into service. Added berths but not ships.

 

 

Don't forget they are repositioning the Brilliance to Europe with no intentions of bringing her back for the foreseeable future.

[FL_Cruiser64]

Bring more choices to Baltimore, Norfolk, New York

 

 

If they would drop the prices out of those ports it would be fine by me. I am fine with higher prices but some of those sailings are outrageous.

[Captain Jake]

If they would drop the prices out of those ports it would be fine by me. I am fine with higher prices but some of those sailings are outrageous.

 

It amazes me that the same trip out of Bayonne is hundreds cheaper than Baltimore.Must be the demand.I've been told Baltimore is hindered by the Chesapeake Bay Bridge clearance limiting it to the smaller ships