Signs of slowing demand & pricing weakness

[Sirwinston]

I have three cruises booked for next year. two are in 1As :rolleyes: :D

My Alaska is in an 11 aft wrap. I am making payments on these while also paying down credit cards. If I cannot pay ahead they will all be cancelled.

But Alaska is the one I am most commited too...

I am working more side jobs (handyman/painter etc) and trying to spend less.

Tom in Long Beach

[glrounds]

How many ships can they send to Europe before they have excess supply there? They can't send all of them. I don't think competition is that big a factor either. I think that airlines charging to take ANY bag:eek: and cutting down on flights will hurt cruiselines more, as well as a weakening economy. People who live close enough to afford to drive to a port and can still afford to cruise will benefit from all this.

 

The best answer yet . . . very good. I happen to agree completely. Driving or flying long distances to ports will be the deciding factor in the immediate future. Fuel surcharges aren't helping to entice the potential cruiser either. :)

[glrounds]

How many ships can they send to Europe before they have excess supply there? They can't send all of them. I don't think competition is that big a factor either. I think that airlines charging to take ANY bag:eek: and cutting down on flights will hurt cruiselines more, as well as a weakening economy. People who live close enough to afford to drive to a port and can still afford to cruise will benefit from all this.

 

The best answer yet . . . I completely agree. Driving or flying long distances is clobbering the cruise industry, right along with a shortage in discretionary income. The fuel surcharges aren't doing much to entice the potential cruiser either. :)

[LHP]

You guys are scaring me lol, now I dont know if Im doing the right thing to book in advance or not.

 

You could always do like I do. I book whenever I want to and if the price goes down before my final payment, my PVP reduces my final payment.

 

If it goes does after my final payment, I get OBC.

 

I get the benefit of booking early to get the cabin I want and the benefit of booking late by getting the best price!

 

Unfortunately, most of my cruises recently have gone UP. :rolleyes:

[pungo3]

I'm just going to keep booking cruises and hope I get OBC if the price falls. Cruises are the BEST value for your money anyway, as far as I'm concerned. :D

[NCTribeFan]

LHP: Why is that "unfortunate?"

 

All that means is that you booked at the price you thought was reasonable (or else you wouldn't have booked it, right?), and that decision looks good, since the price has increased.

 

That's how I look at it, at least.

 

Would it be nice if the price dropped? Well, yeah! But if I wasn't comfortable paying the price I booked at, I wouldn't have booked it! I've never, ever had a price drop.

 

I'm hoping weakened demand will make Carnival consider moving some ships to other east coast ports, enticing more people to drive.

 

If they had regular sailings from Baltimore/Norfolk/Charleston, that would be wonderful. Of course, a 7 day cruise to "just" go to the Bahamas wouldn't really appeal to me, but if they'd add Bermuda in there, I'd be all over that!

[halos]

They've been paying outrageous fuel prices for years and have long ago adapted.

 

 

The places where oil was high' date=' had [i']just[/i] that...high oil prices.

I think here it is a bit different because oil prices have changed so drastically, so quickly that now EVERYTHING is high. The oil prices have affected every purchase we make. It's not just about stopping at the pump and being gouged.

 

I also think many Americans, who were WAY over their heads in this time of instant gratification, borrowing money for stuff (including vacations) that they really couldn't afford are going to wind up in deep poo..

Our entire economy is on the brink here.

 

Before we 'adapt' to the oil prices, there is going to be a MESS.

 

I'm just glad we, personally never lived beyond our means.

[halos]

LHP: Why is that "unfortunate?"

 

All that means is that you booked at the price you thought was reasonable (or else you wouldn't have booked it, right?), and that decision looks good, since the price has increased.

 

That's how I look at it, at least.

 

 

I look at it that way too. I get excited to know I booked at the right time when I see the price of my cruise go up. Usually when we book far in advance, we KNOW we got a great price and don't expect to see a drop.

[DreadPirateRobert]

I still think Carnival Cruise Line will do fine in this environment. People who are dedicated to cruising will move from the higher-priced cruise lines to value-priced CCL.

 

Of course, many of those other cruise lines are owned by Carnival Corp.!

 

Which will only add to the packed ships and higher prices out of Galveston.

Not a good thing. Wonder if CCL would ever add a 3rd ship to Galveston?

[bmacri]

I'm leaving on the Legend the end of June.

If I see the prices go down before the cruise, can I call and get OBC?

 

Or, is this only possible if the final payment is not yet made?

[ruskatab]

Which will only add to the packed ships and higher prices out of Galveston.

Not a good thing. Wonder if CCL would ever add a 3rd ship to Galveston?

 

 

Us Texans dont have many choices when we drive to the port. Galveston and New Orleans are about it and its very limited. I was really hoping the new port in Houston would bring some more ships but im sure with oil prices that a goner. The only good thing is Conquest is changing its ports in January and its good for some people but weve already done Nassau and Key West to death and Freeport doesnt even excite me. RC prices are outrageous on Voyager so I will skip that one.

[srlafleur]

The New England/New York/northeast ports have a huge population base...since we all don't want to/can't afford to fly anywhere, will the cruise ships start taking more advantage of that? It sure would be nice to have more choices (competition) sailing from our "home" ports.

I know there are cruises to New England/Canada, but they seem to remain pretty pricey.

[HokiePoq]

Add Norfolk to the places where there are no deals or price drops. There are relatively few sailings and perhaps that is the reason. We live closeby and would try sailing from there but find the prices for not so great itineraries more than from other ports. Should prices drop at the last minute, we are close enough to take advantage.

We've booked two 09 cruises at what I think were excellent prices as they were air inclusive. I'm thinking the cruise lines have guaranteed a certain number of seats and when sales were slow, discounted the fares packaged with the cruise. OR the cash flow is poor and airline and cruise line share the discount.

[firefly333]

Us Texans dont have many choices when we drive to the port. Galveston and New Orleans are about it and its very limited. I was really hoping the new port in Houston would bring some more ships but im sure with oil prices that a goner. The only good thing is Conquest is changing its ports in January and its good for some people but weve already done Nassau and Key West to death and Freeport doesnt even excite me. RC prices are outrageous on Voyager so I will skip that one.

 

Im waiting again until about 2 months before Easter for my $499 price on Voyager. Got Rhapsody for $349 and Voyager this Easter for $499 and they bumped me into a OV. Dont rule out Voyager if you can go last minute, their prices do come down. Still a little more than I am paying for Conquest, but the price gap is narrowing, as Im paying more than $100 more for my 09 Conquest, than Im paying for 08 Conquest.

 

Thanks for this post, I keep reading folks who are insisting prices are weakening ..... and I keep paying more for each cruise than I paid for my last and thinking why am I paying more and more.

[allgeeteredup]

They have stopped making plans for new cruise ships to let demand catch up to the prices they need to charge to make a profit.

 

Europe demand is not down that Iv heard, and they have already moved a lot of ships to Europe, especially RCL.

 

The only place demand really might slip is where there is more competition, on the East Coast of Florida and Calif. Prices are up from Galveston from this time last year.

Pricing is up significantly from Galveston. I keep watching to see if there are any drops but only prices raised. Glad we booked in August 07. So far, we have saved $790 on what it would cost us today. That includes our Military discount, fuel surcharge and increase in price of excursion. Not bad. That more than pays for our gas, hotel and food to drive to Galveston.

[Kurbanfan]

Im waiting again until about 2 months before Easter for my $499 price on Voyager. Got Rhapsody for $349 and Voyager this Easter for $499 and they bumped me into a OV. Dont rule out Voyager if you can go last minute, their prices do come down. Still a little more than I am paying for Conquest, but the price gap is narrowing, as Im paying more than $100 more for my 09 Conquest, than Im paying for 08 Conquest.

 

 

I agree. We were looking at the Voyager for our week in Dec. and it is only $50 more p/p for balcony then the Conquest. For that price I would choose the Voyager......

[firefly333]

I agree. We were looking at the Voyager for our week in Dec. and it is only $50 more p/p for balcony then the Conquest. For that price I would choose the Voyager......

 

When I was booking last minute on voyager this year, they had D1 and D2? balconys for in the $800s, cheaper if you were platinum or diamond that were sure tempting. Iv got one more to be Platinum.

 

I think one thing people are not taking into consideration is prices are up overall because of the fuel supplement. My 2009 Conquest, the price only went up $20 pp, but because of the fuel supplement, thats $110 extra bucks ($40 plus $70). I only paid $5/day this spring, but next spring RCL wants $8/day and Carnival now wants $7/day. I think that represents a price rise, money is money no matter if it is a add on or not.

 

Oil is down today from a high of over $134/barrel to $122 today. We may see a little relief at the pumps soon once it trickles down. Oil prices seem to have topped for now.

[peterv]

They have stopped making plans for new cruise ships to let demand catch up to the prices they need to charge to make a profit.

 

Europe demand is not down that Iv heard, and they have already moved a lot of ships to Europe, especially RCL.

 

The only place demand really might slip is where there is more competition, on the East Coast of Florida and Calif. Prices are up from Galveston from this time last year.

 

Just doing a quick check for June in Europe reveals that all the lines have vacancies, even those departing the end of this week. I would say that demand is down in Europe as all the cruise lines have decided that Europe is their new cash cow and have sent all their ships over here, but with airfares from the states being exorbitant no one wants to fly in, and Europeans are not that eager to cruise as a rule.

 

Cheers,

Peter

[sakapfet]

Oil is down today from a high of over $134/barrel to $122 today. We may see a little relief at the pumps soon once it trickles down. Oil prices seem to have topped for now.

 

 

Lets hope that Houston or/and New Orleans dont get hit by a major hurricane (the hurricane season is only 4 days old) this summer. For sure we will be paying $5/gallon at the pump

[bdlee73]

This is a very interesting and complex topic. Overall, there is going to be less money available to devote towards cruising:

-Gas is higher, so this will affect the drive market to a certain extent.

-Air is moving higher and airlines are removing capacity from more leisure oriented markets.

-Debt of all kinds made more money available to spend on vacations over the last few years as people sold homes and refinanced to liberate equity from their homes. With the current state of the housing market, the housing ATM is essentially closed.

We must also consider consumer sentiment: this index has been down as of late as people are pessimistic about the state of the economy. This and the preceding factors will have a negative effect on bookings.

With that said, Carnival may do well since their product is more value oriented, but RCCL may see there brand premium begin to erode as I anticipate fewer people will be willing to pony up $900+ for an inside cabin on one of their newer ships.

Those who are dedicated to cruising will still cruise, but we’ll stay on the lookout for the best deals.