Celebrity leaving Australia unexpectedly

[Paulchili]

I have watched with some interest and dismay the news that Celebrity is canceling its cruises in Australia/NZ for 2009/2010 season.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=847754

I followed a thread on P&O Australia where Aussies were quite excited and looking forward to experiencing a new cruise line and busy making plans for their cruises on the Millenium. I can appreciate their disappointment.

That brings me to the point – what exactly made Celebrity change their mind in “mid stream”. Was it lack of bookings (still long way to go for those cruises) or changes in economy in general? Is it possible (just speculating here) that Oceania and others may follow in one form or another (not unlike airlines followed each other with baggage fees, etc)? I certainly hope not as I am booked on one of those cruises to Australia and I am looking forward to it.

It makes you wonder what the future of cruising holds for any of us? We could be shocked by changes just as suddenly and unexpectedly as those poor people who were hoping to sail on the Millenium.

Any thoughts in addition to those voiced on the thread?

[StanandJim]

what exactly made Celebrity change their mind in “mid stream”. Was it lack of bookings (still long way to go for those cruises) or changes in economy in general?

Paulchili-

There is/was something drastically wrong there. Just before they cancelled these voyages, we got an internet ad from a consolidator (Crucon) offering 9 days on the Millie (cruise only, obviously) starting at $699.

[Paulchili]

Paulchili-

There is/was something drastically wrong there. Just before they cancelled these voyages, we got an internet ad from a consolidator (Crucon) offering 9 days on the Millie (cruise only, obviously) starting at $699.

 

I suspect you are right - we may never know the full story.

Regarding the offer -as they say - "if it's too good to be true...

As Oceania has fewer cruises in that region (rather than several B2B SYD-AKL, as Celebrity had) they may keep it going for a while longer. Airline costs are going to be the deciding factor for both cruise line and passengers.

[peapod2]

Airfare to Australia/New Zealand, in particular the fare for Business Class, almost has to be a major deal breaker for the large amount of passenger space Millennium needed to sell. The few (too few, in my opinion) air carriers that fly there from the U.S. (mainly Qantas & Air New Zealand) have been charging outrageous amounts to get there in business class for quite a while now (e.g. upwards of $11,000 or even $13,000 per person), and for flights as long as those, coach class is just not an appealing or even healthy option for many people, particularly those of a certain age. And try to get business class tickets using frequent flier miles, good luck! We've tried, and repeatedly failed, no matter how how far in advance we looked. It's a shame, as I think many of Celebrity's and others' New Zealand itineraries are extremely appealing, but the idea of spending over $22,000 just for airfare before the cruise even begins is just too much for many mortals. I wonder if there would be any feasibility to cruiseline-chartered flights from the U.S. Or whether any cruiselines might be willing or able to negotiate some discounted Business Class fares w/ the airlines. If they ever get that one figured out, we'll be there.

 

peapod2

[raffeer]

I don't think the airlines are suddenly raising their rates here. Business Class fares to Australia were always pricey. We paid $6000 in '84. In '84 that was serious cash. It still is come to think of it...............

[meow!]

It now appears unwise and poorly timed for Oceania/Apollo to have started those two large newbuilds just a while ago, before the present economic crisis became apparent and probably at a top-market-cycle price. When those ships are delivered in 2009/2010, the cruise market may not have recovered.

 

In retrospect, they will be wiser not to purchase those newbuilds (again the ever repeating over-expansionism that businessmen perpetually commit). Or if they do buy newbuilds, do so in 2010/1 when shipyards will be crying and begging for contracts at bottom cost, and take delivery in 2003/4. Perhaps by then, there will be a new high cycle in the cruise industry.

 

Nobody can tell though, they may get lucky, only time will reveal !

[lcand1923]

I live on the east coast of the US. Several years ago a cruise line (can't remember which) announced that it would be sailing out of our harbor. I can't remember how many cruises were announced, but know it was in the 'teens.

 

It was about one month prior to the start of sailing when the cruise line cancelled all of the cruises. Needless to say, there was a lot of speculation in the newspapers, on the TV and various radio stations as to what had happened.

 

Several travel agents who did business with the cruise line called in to one of the local talk radio stations. They reported that several of the cruises were only booked about 40% while others were fully booked. The cruise line decided that they would take their chances with moving the ship to another port.

 

I do remember that the relocated ship took over the cruises of another vessel and THAT vessel went into an early drydock. (I found this out by checking the cruise line on Cruise Critic.)

 

Perhaps Celebrity is doing the same with their Australia/New Zealand.

[Paulchili]

peapod2

And try to get business class tickets using frequent flier miles, good luck! We've tried, and repeatedly failed, no matter how how far in advance we looked.

 

I know exactly what you mean. If you have the time, you can try doing what we are doing. Fly into some easier location using miles for businesss class(i.e. Singapore) and then do B2B cruises that get you into and out of OZ and get a return flight from an easier location than OZ (BKK, HNL, Fiji, etc). You'll also wind up using (needing) fewer miles that way.

[myrtlewinston]

It now appears unwise and poorly timed for Oceania/Apollo to have started those two large newbuilds just a while ago, before the present economic crisis became apparent and probably at a top-market-cycle price. When those ships are delivered in 2009/2010, the cruise market may not have recovered.

 

In retrospect, they will be wiser not to purchase those newbuilds (again the ever repeating over-expansionism that businessmen perpetually commit). Or if they do buy newbuilds, do so in 2010/1 when shipyards will be crying and begging for contracts at bottom cost, and take delivery in 2003/4. Perhaps by then, there will be a new high cycle in the cruise industry.

 

Nobody can tell though, they may get lucky, only time will reveal !

 

If O can't pay for those ships, or make them financially viable, they'll be in trouble. If they can land those 'downgrading' from the more expensive lines, they might be fine. But, they'll have to have a good reputation in order to do so!

[peapod2]

Paulchili, thanks for the excellent suggestion.

 

peapod2

[DaveFr]

peapod2

And try to get business class tickets using frequent flier miles, good luck! We've tried, and repeatedly failed, no matter how how far in advance we looked.

 

I know exactly what you mean. If you have the time, you can try doing what we are doing. Fly into some easier location using miles for businesss class(i.e. Singapore) and then do B2B cruises that get you into and out of OZ and get a return flight from an easier location than OZ (BKK, HNL, Fiji, etc). You'll also wind up using (needing) fewer miles that way.

If you find an agent at the airline frequent flyer desk who really knows what he or she is doing and is willing to spend time looking for flights, it is possible to get business class frequent flyer seats to Australia/NZ. Of course you have to be flexible with itineraries and flight times.

 

In early January, I tried to get Business Class seats from Los Angeles for our cruise in November between Sydney and Auckland. While there were coach seats available on Air NZ and United as part of the Star Alliance, there was no availability for FF business class seats. As a backup, I booked RT Premium Economy seats on Air NZ for $2500 pp., which wasn't too outrageous.

 

I checked back with US Air periodically but no business seats were available. However, in mid-June, the agent looked beyond United and Air NZ and found seats on Asiana which is also a Star Alliance member. So we have business class FF tickets nonstop from LA to Seoul, then nonstop from Seoul to Sydney. On the way back, we have business class on Air NZ from Auckland to Sydney and flights from Sydney to Seoul and Seoul to LA.

 

The downside is that the flight to and from Sydney, including changing planes in Seoul is about 23 to 25 hours. However, Asiana is an excellent airline and we should be able to sleep in the business class seats. I look upon these flights as a new adventure. :D The cancellation fee on the Premium Economy seats was $300 but that fee and 110,000 FF miles is IMHO a good deal on a ticket that normally costs about $11,500.

 

Dave

[StanandJim]

If you find an agent at the airline frequent flyer desk who really knows what he or she is doing and is willing to spend time looking for flights, it is possible to get business class frequent flyer seats to Australia/NZ. Of course you have to be flexible with itineraries and flight times

 

DaveFr,

 

If you use Airline frequent flier miles in conjunction with American Express Rewards, or Starwood Preferred Guest Rewards, you can do even better.

 

Amex seems to be THE luxury travel company of the millenium.

[LHT28]

I am at a loss to understand WHY this topic is posted on the Oceania forum??????

[myrtlewinston]

Maybe because it's an indication of how the cruise industry is faring? :confused:

[LHT28]

Maybe because it's an indication of how the cruise industry is faring? :confused:

 

Or not:cool:

Celebrity is selling some of their ships & placing others in the areas that generate more sales.

Maybe posting it in the general cruise forum would have been more appropriate then

 

 

But this has nothing to do with Oceania ...when they start moving ships then I will be interested.

[Paulchili]

Or not:cool:

Celebrity is selling some of their ships & placing others in the areas that generate more sales.

Maybe posting it in the general cruise forum would have been more appropriate then

 

 

But this has nothing to do with Oceania ...when they start moving ships then I will be interested.

 

Let's hope it doesn't happen, but it is a possibility.

Afterall, the Celebrity passengers to Australia/NZ were caught of guard, so it can happen to us as well.

[Wendy The Wanderer]

Yeah, why is this in the Oceania forum?

[Paulchili]

Yeah, why is this in the Oceania forum?

 

I decided to post this thread on Oceania because it is of interest and concern to me in particular.

I have a future cruise booked with Oceania to Australia (2009/10). In the view of the current economical situation it is not unimaginable that Oceania too would cancel some of their itinerary in Australia. If some of you have specific guarantees from God himself that this will not happen, please share them with me – I will accept no lesser guarantee.

The changes by Celebrity were probably prompted by competition, high cost of fuel, low interest and very high airline prices to Australia among others. Oceania is not immune from any these factors. I hope Oceania does not cancel any of their plans, but it is a possibility and therefore it is of concern to me (maybe not all of you).

I think this topic is pertinent to cruising in general, Celebrity in particular at the moment and other cruise lines (including Oceania) potentially in the future, as they all have to respond the economic pressures.

Anyone who is not interested in reading or replying to this thread is not required to do either.

I hope this helps to explain why this is posted here.

[ClaudiaF]

peapod2

And try to get business class tickets using frequent flier miles, good luck! We've tried, and repeatedly failed, no matter how how far in advance we looked.

 

I know exactly what you mean. If you have the time, you can try doing what we are doing. Fly into some easier location using miles for businesss class(i.e. Singapore) and then do B2B cruises that get you into and out of OZ and get a return flight from an easier location than OZ (BKK, HNL, Fiji, etc). You'll also wind up using (needing) fewer miles that way.

 

 

great idea...

[Paulchili]

great idea...

 

I hope it will work out for you both ClaudiaF & peapod2 at some point