Doom And Gloom Cruising

[linda_22003]

Thanks for the backup, Momofmeg. I may have sounded a little harsh, but this feeling of entitlement is taking over America, and it's very destructive. :(

[momofmeg]

Thanks for the backup, Momofmeg. I may have sounded a little harsh, but this feeling of entitlement is taking over America, and it's very destructive. :(

 

Yes, and unfortunately I am afraid that like a "house of cards" everything could come tumbling down. You sounded harsh? Read my previous posts on this thread. I really stirred up a bee's nest. Sadly, many do not realize that we will pay and pay big time for the mess this country is in-nothing is free in this world, for sure.

[Kudos2Fly]

Well I don't think a $1200 check will help people "save" theire homes anyways.. If they are losing their home $1200 is not going to help. It may help buy food but that's about it. And if some are doing well and want to spend it on a cruise then great for them..

 

I personally don't think I'm entitled to anything. I think most people don't think that.. I think only a "small" amount do, although they wouldn't admit it. I think things will turn around.. It probably will be a bumpy road but things will go back to "normal" in time.. Then hopefully banks will not give out loans like candy anymore..

[Aussie One]

When i posted this thread i was thinking of the loss to the Tourism industry and Cruise lines because of other counrtys devauation to the US Dollar. This thread is getting bigger then Ben Hur. give this some thought.

June 2008 say the $US was about $1.40 to the Euro. because most shipping companys are registerd in Europe. this means for your shipboard account of $1.000 the shipping company would receive. $1.400.

today because of a lower Euro the $1.000 could be worth $1.700.

these figurs i have made up.most countrys in the world price there comodities in $US. so when they are paid for there produce wether it be nickol coal or wheat. they are Now getting more. because of there lower currency to the $US. so should cruise prices be cheaper ? hope this make sence. Grumphy

[DanJ]

When i posted this thread i was thinking of the loss to the Tourism industry and Cruise lines because of other counrtys devauation to the US Dollar. This thread is getting bigger then Ben Hur. give this some thought.

June 2008 say the $US was about $1.40 to the Euro. because most shipping companys are registerd in Europe. this means for your shipboard account of $1.000 the shipping company would receive. $1.400.

today because of a lower Euro the $1.000 could be worth $1.700.

these figurs i have made up.most countrys in the world price there comodities in $US. so when they are paid for there produce wether it be nickol coal or wheat. they are Now getting more. because of there lower currency to the $US. so should cruise prices be cheaper ? hope this make sence. Grumphy

 

Well, most cruise lines are American. Carnival Corp is dual listed in New York and London, while Royal Caribbean is listed in New York. But they are both headquartered in the US. The ships are registered in many countries, few to none of which are in Europe.

 

Using your example of 1.4 Euros to the US dollar, that means that for a shipboard account of $1000 US, that equals approx 714 Euros. Not that matters to anyone except a European coming over here to cruise. The Euro is actually lower today, at 1.28 Euros to the US Dollar, which is bad for the European guy, better for the US guy wanting to go to Europe. Still means nothing to the US guy wanting to stay home and cruise though.

 

Stronger foreign currencies against the US dollar has been a relatively short term thing though in many cases. The Canadian dollar for example, has dropped back a quarter of it's value since it peaked a year ago. But it's still at a good rate compared to where it's been over the last 15 years or so. And basically, the reason our dollar has dropped is because oil has dropped, and I'll gladly take the cheaper oil and pay a bit more in exchange rates for a cruise.

[thied]

All i can say is that we need more cruise ships to run out of australia mainly Brisbane

[quester1]

When i posted this thread i was thinking of the loss to the Tourism industry and Cruise lines because of other counrtys devauation to the US Dollar. This thread is getting bigger then Ben Hur. give this some thought.

June 2008 say the $US was about $1.40 to the Euro. because most shipping companys are registerd in Europe. this means for your shipboard account of $1.000 the shipping company would receive. $1.400.

today because of a lower Euro the $1.000 could be worth $1.700.

these figurs i have made up.most countrys in the world price there comodities in $US. so when they are paid for there produce wether it be nickol coal or wheat. they are Now getting more. because of there lower currency to the $US. so should cruise prices be cheaper ? hope this make sence. Grumphy

 

You pose an interesting concern. But really how much effect does the strengthening US dollar have on foreigners (other than US citizens or residents) deciding whether or not to cruise on a US owned cruise ship?

 

I propose that the strengthening US dollar has little or no effect on whether a person is going to cruise on a US owned cruise ship. Yes if the local currency suddenly lost 50 – 60 percent of its value relative to the US dollar and I had to pay in US dollars I might reevaluate my cruise plans. But if I still really wanted to go and had the money I would still pay the price and go. Fortunately, currencies rarely gain or loose value very quickly and usually not to a great extent in a short time. If a currency would suddenly loose 50 – 60 percent of its value it would signal a major economic catastrophe in that country. In this case people would probably not holiday abroad because of fear for the future even if they had the money need to afford the more expensive vacation. This is what is happening right now on a wide scale. People are scared because a world wide great depression may be coming and they might need as much money as they can possibly save just to survive in the future. Therefore they forgo discretionary expenditures such as holidays.

 

In fact this is what is happening even to the US residences. They are not traveling as extensively as they did last year even though their dollar has gained strength against most if not all other currencies. You would think that they would be taking advantage of the great holiday prices available to them but they are not. They are scared.

 

For some of us that are not deeply in debt, or loosing our savings in the stock market or have to rely on stock market profits to live. The present vacation costs are a great opportunity. I have never seen such low prices for a vacation as are available this year. In fact I looked at what I paid to for airfare and cruising in 1982 and I pay less today and make far more money.

 

When I price compare for a vacation I not only look at the exchange rate but also at the cost of living of the country I plan to go to. For example If after adjusting for the currency exchange rate I find that a good meal would cost less in the country I plan to visit than here at home I think the vacation is a good deal. For us Canadians this most often true when traveling to the Fareast, Caribbean, Mexico, Central America and South America. Unfortunately, when applying this line of reasoning to Europe I find a vacation in Europe very expensive. Other countries such as Australia, New Zealand and yeas even the US are on par during a vacation once cost of living is taken into account.

 

The biggest deterrent for traveling from a cost perspective is getting there. A major factor for evaluating the cost of a vacation is the price of airfare. A few months ago it liked air travel was going to become very expensive not because of the strengthening of the US dollar but because of the rise in the cost of oil. Fortunately oil is going down a fuel surcharges are being reduced or dropped by the airlines and other travel suppliers.

 

The last point I’d like to make is that travel suppliers price their product and services in perspective to what the market will bear. I discovered something interesting when conversing with a person from England. She informed me that she could not by a cruise directly on US cruise line via their Website. As soon as she entered her home address she was told she must contract the cruise lines European distributor. The European distributors price was much high than the US price on the cruise lines website even after accounting for the currency exchange rate. She could buy in US dollars directly from the Cruise line or their US based website even if she wanted to.

 

Fortunately in Canada we can buy direct from the cruise line over the phone or through their website either in Canadian or US dollars. Sometimes the cruise line gives a better exchange rate if I pay in Canadian dollars and sometimes it worth my time to pay in US dollars.

 

As well we have package tour operators in Canada that sell all the major cruise lines. They often negotiate a very low price with the cruise line, airlines, hotels and transfer bus lines that make their package price a better deal then purchasing directly through the cruise line regardless of the currency exchange rate. This is because they negotiated their cost for the cruise segment as much as a year in advance of selling it.

 

So you see, value for the dollar or yen or euro etc. is probably much more of a concern than the currency exchange rate especially during good economic times in determine whether or not to take a US based cruise line’s cruise. During bad economic times consumer and investor confidence in the future of their country’s economy plays a greater role in determining whether of not they will cruise no matter what the price of the cruise is when converted into their currency.

 

In respect to your second concern that cruise prices should be coming down because the strong US dollar means that commodities need to operate are cheaper on the world market. Although this may be true, cruise lines usually negotiate prices well in advance of the sailing dates when the commodities may be needed, often more than a year in advance. These prices are locked in contracts. Built into their pricing model is a margin that will allow them to absorb a certain percentage increase in needed commodities in which case they make less profit. In the case were they can purchase cheaper commodities they may make more profit which offsets the times that they make less profit giving them the over all average profit margin that they are looking for.

 

Finally remember in my previous post a alluded to the regional pricing specials we get here in Alberta that are only good for Canadians living in Alberta. This is the way the cruise lines attract passengers when they want to compensate for things like high currency exchange rates when they want to develop a larger market share.

 

Do you have regional specials available in Australia?

 

All in all, the cruise lines are still making a handsome profit despite the economic slow down. It will remain to be seen if they can continue to attract cruiser and make a profit in the future. I think they will.

[Aussie One]

QUESTER1 There are cruise lines that operate from Australia. they are mainly Asian cruise lines.there is a cruise line that is in Europe called AAPT its possible this line is Australian.

Australia is very strict on minimun wages for the workers. cruise lines would not pay the Aussie minimum wage.

This is the reason we don,t have to tip. A waiter or bar person earn $24-$28 per hour a cleaner a little lower.

While we are talking money, somebody please explain what is a stimulas check. thank you Grumphy

[Aussie One]

QUESTER1 There are cruise lines that operate from Australia. they are mainly Asian cruise lines.there is a cruise line that is in Europe called AAPT its possible this line is Australian.

Australia is very strict on minimun wages for the workers. cruise lines would not pay the Aussie minimum wage.

This is the reason we don,t have to tip. A waiter or bar person earn $24-$28 per hour a cleaner a little lower.

While we are talking money, somebody please explain what is a stimulas check. thank you Grumphy

 

oops sorry the cruise line is apt.com check it out does all river crusies in Europe all gratuties included.

[DanJ]

The stimulus checks referred to were checks given to the taxpayers by the US government for them to go out, spend and "stimulate" the economy. We can now see how well that worked out.

[misty57]

The stimulus checks referred to were checks given to the taxpayers by the US government for them to go out, spend and "stimulate" the economy. We can now see how well that worked out.

Yeah... the spending is one of the things that contributed to this mess.. except the spending was with invisible money ( ie plastic). ;)

[Aussie One]

Our goverment is also giving out cash due 8th December.

Pesioners $2.400 per couple

single $1.300

children $1.000 per child this is means tested low income familys

carrers $1.000 these are on a disability

Cost about $33 billion

Strange Doom and Gloom and these goverments come up with the cash but plead poverty all year.

I note the politicians get plenty of over seas trips.if we do the same they say we are lucky.

Aussie Saying. when telling friends your taking a cruise, they say gee your lucky.

You reply its funny you say that, the harder i work the luckier i get.

have a G/day Grumphy

[momofmeg]

The stimulus checks referred to were checks given to the taxpayers by the US government for them to go out, spend and "stimulate" the economy. We can now see how well that worked out.

 

I know an an aquaintance that had to spend her stimulus check on a house payment as she lost her job. Fortunately the next month she found another position so at least she will not be added to the list of foreclosures of home sin the US YET.

 

To the OP the US mimumin wage is like $6.80 an hour, which is really a joke when you consider gas prices. Anyone making that little goes in the hole just getting to their work.

[Kudos2Fly]

To the OP the US mimumin wage is like $6.80 an hour, which is really a joke when you consider gas prices. Anyone making that little goes in the hole just getting to their work.

 

But the thing that I always thought about mimumin wage was just that MIMUMIN. Its for college and high school students to "get by" on. NOT to support a family of four. And of course not buying a house bigger then what you can afford. That was the problem, the banks were given home loans out to everyone and anyone that came to ask for one.

 

I think there will be a change in the way banks give home loans, they will be more careful who they loan to. Plus I think people probably will be looking closure at weather they can handle the home if things in the encomony take a turn. We are even looking at down sizing in the future.

 

I look at our personal travel based on how well we are doing and our business is doing. Not on the Euro vs. the Dollar. We went to Italy lasted year in May. We went knowing what the Euro was, but that didn't stop us. We had the money to go so we went. This year we are staying close to home because our busines is in construction and engineering home design. So of course we are working harder to get the money in. But it is picking up, so will still do some traveling but not any "BIG" trips..

[momofmeg]

But the thing that I always thought about mimumin wage was just that MIMUMIN. Its for college and high school students to "get by" on. NOT to support a family of four. And of course not buying a house bigger then what you can afford. That was the problem, the banks were given home loans out to everyone and anyone that came to ask for one.

 

I think there will be a change in the way banks give home loans, they will be more careful who they loan to. Plus I think people probably will be looking closure at weather they can handle the home if things in the encomony take a turn. We are even looking at down sizing in the future.

 

I look at our personal travel based on how well we are doing and our business is doing. Not on the Euro vs. the Dollar. We went to Italy lasted year in May. We went knowing what the Euro was, but that didn't stop us. We had the money to go so we went. This year we are staying close to home because our busines is in construction and engineering home design. So of course we are working harder to get the money in. But it is picking up, so will still do some traveling but not any "BIG" trips..

 

True, but if you are college student working at Mac Donalds or Pizza Hut and you drive a 10 year old Ford Taurus, are you actually making anything once you substract what it cost you to get there?

 

Yep, we would like to downsize our home also but we learned our house is only worth $2000 more than what we paid for it 9 years ago. Now is NOT the time to sell a house.

 

Now we can still afford to take trips, but many we know can't and I am afraid that we will be in that position also before long, if things keep going the way they are.

[MMDown Under]

But the thing that I always thought about mimumin wage was just that MIMUMIN. Its for college and high school students to "get by" on. NOT to support a family of four. And of course not buying a house bigger then what you can afford. That was the problem, the banks were given home loans out to everyone and anyone that came to ask for one.

 

I think there will be a change in the way banks give home loans, they will be more careful who they loan to. Plus I think people probably will be looking closure at weather they can handle the home if things in the encomony take a turn. We are even looking at down sizing in the future.

 

I look at our personal travel based on how well we are doing and our business is doing. Not on the Euro vs. the Dollar. We went to Italy lasted year in May. We went knowing what the Euro was, but that didn't stop us. We had the money to go so we went. This year we are staying close to home because our busines is in construction and engineering home design. So of course we are working harder to get the money in. But it is picking up, so will still do some traveling but not any "BIG" trips..

 

Some comments based on my own experience -

 

Many poor family people in the US receive the minimum wage. I enjoyed talking to the people who clean the table (no tips) and never ceased to be amazed how little they got paid.

 

Just watched an interesting Australian TV show on our public broadcaster, which was filmed in the US with a live audience of people involved, in some way, with the current housing crises in the US (from those who lent the money to those who were at the top of the tree). The person who arranged the loans explained it was a pyramid system, where the person who recruited him got commission on his sales and he got commission on anyone he brought in to make sales. He admitted he was now ashamed of his involvement, as he was encouraged to sell to uninformed people, who he knew could not afford the loans.

 

Banks have already tightened up money lending here, even though our system is regulated, as they no longer have access to cheap money.

 

Some informed people in Australia are already cashed up, having sold their homes, and are downsizing/renting to tide out the recession, which they believe is coming.

 

Construction has already wound back here, even though the Government has announced record infrastructure spending.

 

Will this effect the cruise industry? I believe so. Personally, with the volatility of the currency market, we will no longer book anything in advance which is quoted in $US/Euros.

[Kudos2Fly]

True, but if you are college student working at Mac Donalds or Pizza Hut and you drive a 10 year old Ford Taurus, are you actually making anything once you substract what it cost you to get there?

 

Yep, we would like to downsize our home also but we learned our house is only worth $2000 more than what we paid for it 9 years ago. Now is NOT the time to sell a house.

 

Now we can still afford to take trips, but many we know can't and I am afraid that we will be in that position also before long, if things keep going the way they are.

 

Don't know haven't figure that out in a while. But I do know when I was working at K-Mart I did have enough money to get by with, while I was going to school. This was 10 years ago though. Still doesn't change even back then it wasn't not enough to support and family and home on that.

 

Anyways on to the house thing, ya we aren't selling now either, because we are not ready to move yet and the market is slow even for our house. We have a "smaller" market for our home, but the people that want them don't have much to chose from. Since we live in a airport neighborhood.

[AllieInMD]

That is just an excuse perpetuated by the liberal media about poor duped people. Sorry - if you are old enough to sign a contract you are old enough to read the terms. Our long standing federal law for Truth In Lending spells out interest rates, terms, and what the cost of the loan is after all the interest is added in. People were stupid and signed loan contracts for money they knew they couldn't afford - but the lure of that big house was strong and they signed. It's no different than someone that goes to buy a Honda and a car salesman talks them into buying a Ferrari. Or if I go to buy shoes at Payless and instead to opt to buy Manolo Blahnik's. Those folks aren't baled out.

 

Don't live above your means. And NOBODY but you is responsible for it - NOBODY. And yes - I own a home - bought my first one 2 days after I turned 18 - I had to wait until I was old enough to sign the contract - and I did know exactly what I was signing and exactly what the payments would be. I once had an ARM - and refin'd in a few years to get out from under it. And was once again offered an ARM, but said no and paid a bit more for a conventional mortgage. Simple - if you can't afford it - don't buy it. If you buy it anyway and you can't pay for it - it should be taken away. Period - simple.

 

 

The person who arranged the loans explained it was a pyramid system, where the person who recruited him got commission on his sales and he got commission on anyone he brought in to make sales. He admitted he was now ashamed of his involvement, as he was encouraged to sell to uninformed people, who he knew could not afford the loans.

[Kudos2Fly]

Some comments based on my own experience -

 

Many poor family people in the US receive the minimum wage. I enjoyed talking to the people who clean the table (no tips) and never ceased to be amazed how little they got paid.

 

(Yes they do get paid very little. Thats why I always tip, unless its really BAD service. I do understand were they are coming from. My parents also were almost on welfare at one time in there lives. My dad was a construction worker in the 70's and he couldn't pay someone to give him a job.. There were no jobs in construction that pay well that time. So he went back to school and ended getting a job on a tug boat and been doing that ever since and is now a captain and doing well. People can go back to school and get some type training were they can make better pay if they WANT to.)

 

Just watched an interesting Australian TV show on our public broadcaster, which was filmed in the US with a live audience of people involved, in some way, with the current housing crises in the US (from those who lent the money to those who were at the top of the tree). The person who arranged the loans explained it was a pyramid system, where the person who recruited him got commission on his sales and he got commission on anyone he brought in to make sales. He admitted he was now ashamed of his involvement, as he was encouraged to sell to uninformed people, who he knew could not afford the loans.

 

(Well thats the whole point for this problem. I have herd those stories also. It's sad, to give someone a house and them not understand what really is involved. Then they lose it because they can't afford the increase in interest rates. I hope things change the way banks give out home loans and not be afraid to say no to some people.)

 

Banks have already tightened up money lending here, even though our system is regulated, as they no longer have access to cheap money.

 

Some informed people in Australia are already cashed up, having sold their homes, and are downsizing/renting to tide out the recession, which they believe is coming.

 

(Ya thats our plan is to pay off all our debt and maybe down size. I think that will be new trend for a while.. Although people how can afford the big homes will still buy them. Which is good for us. ;) More work for us.)

 

Construction has already wound back here, even though the Government has announced record infrastructure spending.

 

Will this effect the cruise industry? I believe so. Personally, with the volatility of the currency market, we will no longer book anything in advance which is quoted in $US/Euros.

 

(Probably, but I'm sure they will adjust too. Right now we are doing shorter trips and not doing really big one now.)

[MMDown Under]

I always have to laugh when I read about other countries and what they think of the USA. A person (can't remember who) once said that no matter what is said, a measure of a country/society is to check to see how many are trying to get in, and how many are trying to get out. Last I checked, Americans are not trying to get out of here in droves, and people from other countries are still trying to get in in droves - legally and illegally.

 

Much as I love America, I wouldn't want to live there.

 

In Australia, we believe in "a fair go" and have -

• free public health system
  
• medicine for pensioners/low income (total co-payment $5)
  
• loans for university (interest free, but indexed to cost of living, and only have to start to be repaid when the student reaches a certain income level)
  
• non contributory pensions, subject to means test (65 for men, 63.1/2 for women, being phased in to 65)
  
• home help to keep the elderly in their own homes
  
• and the list goes on.

I believe a measure of society is how it looks after its poor at home and how it contributes to the poor of the world.

 

I'd rather pay higher taxes any day. Whilst Australia is not in the same league as Sweden, it tries.

[Aussie One]

Thank you for the doom and gloom replys. going by most of the replys.

we are in the age group that has done there nine yrds. looking back i think we all battled hard to pay mortgages and school fees to educate our children. so now is the time to enjoy life and cruise as often as possible. They say you can,t take it with you. But i,m not going.

so lets forget doom and gloom. have a G/day Grumphy