Another data point...
Our bids always show "Pending" from the beginning. Always seems to simply indicate that a) the bid has not been rejected, and b) no decision has been made.
That said, we're always bidding on cabins that aren't available unless the current holder cancels. Even a year+ out, by the time we get around to booking, a RS is the best available cabin, and suits our needs anyway. Bidding on anything higher on the cruises we choose would require an extraordinary event in order to be successful. We call these 'backfill' bids.
That said, should the current owner no-show for whatever reason, we have a cabin that when abandoned could open the way for several ripple-up upgrades to occur with X gaining the additional revenue on each, which I would think would put us in a decent position.