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Tropical Storm Jose


JLCMOM
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Yup.

The good news is the trough that is blocking Irma is expected to "pick this one up" as meteorologists say and give it the usual curve away from land. But that always gives a threat to Bermuda, which has escaped many a storm that did this. Even the ones that chased Breakway from Bermuda early twice and canceled one stop last year did no serious damage.

 

Also conditions in that area not favorable to develop into "major" category (3 or 4).

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Yup.

The good news is the trough that is blocking Irma is expected to "pick this one up" as meteorologists say and give it the usual curve away from land. But that always gives a threat to Bermuda, which has escaped many a storm that did this. Even the ones that chased Breakway from Bermuda early twice and canceled one stop last year did no serious damage.

 

Also conditions in that area not favorable to develop into "major" category (3 or 4).

 

Ugh! Not good if you're heading to Bermuda on Breakaway 9/17 out of NYC. Keeping a close eye on this.

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I read Jose has been upgraded to a hurricane now. I also saw one prediction that has it being southwest of Bermuda on Sept. 17. That's when we're expected to be docking on the Dawn. Obviously, this is still quite some time, so we're hoping for the best and hopefully, this storm goes further out to sea.

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Ugh! Not good if you're heading to Bermuda on Breakaway 9/17 out of NYC. Keeping a close eye on this.

 

I'm on Grandeur out of Baltimore on 9/16 so I'm in the same boat (Well not the same boat, but you know .. :')) Most indications though is it goes out to sea and dies.

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On the Weather Channel very early this morning, I saw them run a ten day scenario that had Jose doing a loop and coming back down close to the current position. They noted that you can't count on a ten day computer prediction but said hurricanes had looped around before.

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I don't think my Bermuda cruise is going to happen this week. I wonder where we will go... Up the coast north or down the coast to Bahamas or something. Jose is projected to be directly between NYC and Bermuda on Sunday when we are scheduled to sail. :(

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I don't think my Bermuda cruise is going to happen this week. I wonder where we will go... Up the coast north or down the coast to Bahamas or something. Jose is projected to be directly between NYC and Bermuda on Sunday when we are scheduled to sail. :(

 

As of the latest run of the GFS Jose would be due west of Bermuda half way to SC coast on Sunday the 17th. [i will attach the map of this.] After that Jose is projected to slide north then recurve out to sea heading NE. Late on Wed. the 19th Jose is forecast to be 350-400 miles SE of Nantucket.

 

IMNHO, the Breakaway will sail to Bermuda heading a bit more out to the east than its normal straight line course. Going to the North or to the South would take the Breakaway into Jose direct influences. There may be a bit of a swell, but by going [fast] to Bermuda will avoid most of the winds of the storm.

 

All this said we are talking about events 6+days out. A lot can change in that time

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

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I would like to add a caveat to my previous post. In the "life time" of computer modeled predictions, 6+ days is a bit like reading good fiction. You get the plot design, the character structure, but you are never ready for the plot twists. While the GFS sends Jose out to sea, there are forecasts that have him doing a second loop north of Bermuda and south of New England.

 

As "retired" surfer this looks great. For the cruiser, well ... not so good.

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I hope that's the least of it we are supposed to be in Boston Monday and Portland Tuesday

 

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Forums mobile app

 

As of this morning the major computer models insist that Jose is going to move to south of NE, east of NJ, on Monday night and 24 hours later near Nantucket. Then another 24 hours and he will be passing Halifax. This is the GFS models positions. The EURO model keep Jose further off shore, and but late Wednesday Jose is SE of Nantucket then looping, heading southward and back toward the Virginia beach area Saturday.

 

To say there are differing forecasts after Tuesday is clear. If the GFS is correct the NE/Canada cruises should feel some effects from the storm. If the Euro is correct these cruise will maybe feel some swell as they move away from NYC/Balt, then mostly good weather.

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That is exactly where I am heading... Major UGH...

 

We're on the Breakaway to Bermuda right now - are you?

 

We're doing a bit of rocking and rolling - the closet doors keep rolling on their tracks making it hard to sleep when they slam shut.

 

The chairs on the balcony repositioned themselves by the door - we're on 14 aft.

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We're on the Breakaway to Bermuda right now ... a bit of rocking and rolling - the closet doors keep rolling on their tracks making it hard to sleep when they slam shut ...

We will be on her again in a few weeks, it's a VG ship & can handle storms nicely under the command of a good Norwegian ship captain ... had 15' seas & barely felt motion on deck 10 Fwd balcony. How are sea conditions this morning - gale force cross wind ? Live shipcam showing large swells but doesn't look all that bad - outdoors closed for safety or still open ... be careful walking around, hold on to railings.

 

Ship's WiFi satellite internet must be working okay for you too - ship was hightailing out of NY on an eastward heading at 20 knots last night before going out of AIS tracking range, is she slowing down yet & any ideas of planning an early arrival?

 

On the noisy sliding close doors, try to use a towel as a cushion & door stopper, or fold/slip a piece of paper & wedge it under.

 

NCL unlikely to turn on the extra Weather Channel on interactive TV, latest NHC forecast showed that Jose isn't posing any threat to Bermuda & staying off the East Coast, heading into the northern Atlantic, "Lee" is no longer posing any threat & downgraded, but Maria is gunning for Puerto Rico & then across the islands by mid-week ... could still generate large swells & rough sea conditions on the BA's return, if ...

 

Any plans to take some "stormy" pictures & videos to share ? Meanwhile, Gem has safely docked in NS (Halifax, I believe) ... they had rain & it's cloudy, damp, wet & a miserable day this morning on their arrival - yikes. Still, better to be on a cruise ship than just another work day. Safe & happy cruising.

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I agree. Looks good to circle around to the east as long as Jose continues north a couple days then turns east so as not to block your return.

 

Seas will likely be rough a lot of the time... sorry! Hope the outer bands do not interfere with some sunshine in Bermuda.

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They're reporting that the waves are 14.8 and have been most of the day. The TV calls them "rough mounting" but I'm not sure what that is.

 

The upper decks are closed but there are hopeful folks in deck chairs wrapped in towels - and it's raining.

 

We used my backpack to stop the doors from crashing so much.

 

Internet is working fine - it's all good for me as long as I can get online. LOL

 

Our path keeps changing and we're going further north and west, then heading back to Bermuda. I've been taking screenshots of the TV and I'll post them in a bit.

 

Here's an image I edited this morning as an overview for the folks back home.

 

5day_cone_with_line_and_wind-us.png

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We're still trucking along, due to be in Bermuda tomorrow morning at 5:30 am as planned.

 

The pools have never been opened, as far as I know, and the decks are usually closed due to high winds.

 

Earlier today, the captain said we might have sun by Thursday.

 

Tonight he announced that we would be leaving Bermuda early, on Thursday afternoon at 5 instead of Friday at 4 to continue sailing around whatever hurricane is out there now.

 

I was able to reschedule the shore excursion I had lined up with an outside tour company, so that's good.

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