Atlantic storm Dorian

[discru]

4 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

11 am update is in for Wednesday.

 

Dorian is passing close to St. Croix, Next it will pass Vieques and Culebra east of Puerto Rico and then affect the eastern edge of PR.  Strength is building.  It is now expected to become a hurricane very soon - as it leave PR perhaps.  And then to be Category 3 somewhere off the NE and N of the Bahamas (Freeport area.)  Being a small storm I don't think the Bahama Islands will see more than tropical storm or Cat. 1 for some.  Path could change still 2 days out.

 

Landfall for Florida about the same - Melbourne/Titusville area which includes Port Canaveral, as a Category 2 storm now. That area had impact in 2016 when I ended up there instead of Bermuda.  

 

UPDATE: They reissued the 11am chart and winds.  Now forecast Category 3 for Florida Landfall. Time to make preparations up and down the coast.  Expect no cruises for 2 days in Port Canaveral, Sunday and Monday I think.  Expect air travel issues for Orlando and West Palm.  Maybe more.

 

How about Fort Lauderdale, PelicanBill?

[Fogfog]

8 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

11 am update is in for Wednesday.

 

Dorian is passing close to St. Croix, Next it will pass Vieques and Culebra east of Puerto Rico and then affect the eastern edge of PR.  Strength is building.  It is now expected to become a hurricane very soon - as it leave PR perhaps.  And then to be Category 3 somewhere off the NE and N of the Bahamas (Freeport area.)  Being a small storm I don't think the Bahama Islands will see more than tropical storm or Cat. 1 for some.  Path could change still 2 days out.

 

Landfall for Florida about the same - Melbourne/Titusville area which includes Port Canaveral, as a Category 2 storm now. That area had impact in 2016 when I ended up there instead of Bermuda.  

 

UPDATE: They reissued the 11am chart and winds.  Now forecast Category 3 for Florida Landfall. Time to make preparations up and down the coast.  Expect no cruises for 2 days in Port Canaveral, Sunday and Monday I think.  Expect air travel issues for Orlando and West Palm.  Maybe more.

 

TY Bill

Was crazy in Walmart... though Publix not quite as busy yet. Plenty of people getting gas.

While it's days away-- no sense waiting til the weekend.  We now have far more water/gatorade and Diet Dr Pepper than we'd use. 

This wobble changing it from mid state, to northern/First Coast (or GA), then back to mid-state has lots of people/counties watching. 

We have not forgotten that IRMA was a cat 1 when she pushed up the St Johns....and there was LOTS of flooding/power out

Edited August 28, 2019 by Fogfog

[PelicanBill]

9 minutes ago, discru said:

How about Fort Lauderdale, PelicanBill?

 

Dorian has been a small storm so far, so I expected impact to be mostly limited to 50 miles each side of landfall. That suggests Miami and Fort Lauderdale outside the area of likely delays and any serious impact.  But with the forecast now at category 3, I need to find more information about the size of the storm expect as it comes in and the area of tropical storm force winds.  If the landfall location stays fixed the next day I will estimate the impact area based on that. But it's been changing every day!

 

Note the current forecast says 50% chance of tropical storm force winds for the Miami/FLL area right now.

Edited August 28, 2019 by PelicanBill

[discru]

Just now, PelicanBill said:

 

Dorian has been a small storm so far, so I expected impact to be mostly limited to 50 miles each side of landfall. That suggests Miami and Fort Lauderdale outside the area of likely delays and any serious impact.  But with the forecast now at category 3, I need to find more information about the size of the storm expect as it comes in and the area of tropical storm force winds.  If the landfall location stays fixed the next day I will estimate the impact area based on that. But it's been changing every day!

 

Thank You for your response!  We all appreciate you taking the time to keep us informed!!

[PelicanBill]

In the space of two days, the impact area has shifted from Dominican Republic & Haiti, to SW Puerto Rico, to NE Puerto Rico, to the US Virgin Islands.

 

Everyone talked about it being small and struggling with dry air.  Now it's forecast to be Cat 3.

 

Everyone talked about it coming into Miami and crossing into the Gulf.  Now it's NE Florida coast and possible recurve up the east coast.

 

Keep that changeability in mind.

[Don&Deb1976]

Thanks for the updates.  We are flying into FLL Sunday and sailing Monday on Majesty out of there hopefully!

[PelicanBill]

2 minutes ago, Don&Deb1976 said:

Thanks for the updates.  We are flying into FLL Sunday and sailing Monday on Majesty out of there hopefully!

Fingers crossed for you.

[GA Buddy]

Still no word of changes from NCL about the Sun sailing tomorrow out of Port Canaveral.

Unless we receive something from them tonight we are headed down in the AM

Can't be any worse than the crossing from Miami to Bimini on a 65' sailboat in 25' seas I did years back on a dive trip LOL

The return to port may be interesting with it scheduled to return Monday AM

[gizmoneil]

38 minutes ago, GA Buddy said:

Still no word of changes from NCL about the Sun sailing tomorrow out of Port Canaveral.

Unless we receive something from them tonight we are headed down in the AM

Can't be any worse than the crossing from Miami to Bimini on a 65' sailboat in 25' seas I did years back on a dive trip LOL

The return to port may be interesting with it scheduled to return Monday AM

 

We are on our way from Michigan later tonight! Still unsure what's going on. I wish they had some sort email telling us what's going on.

[phillyguy31]

Thanks Bill this is very informative and to be honest a bit scary for us. Our grandson just started college in Melbourne, my wife and I decided not to say anything to our daughter to avoid her freaking out.

[Raiderguy8]

2 hours ago, buckeyefrank said:

We are on that sailing as well coming from Ohio driving in on Sunday.  We are watching very closely as well.

We are also from Ohio (Dayton) and driving down on Sunday.  We should carpool!

[karajeboo]

5 minutes ago, Raiderguy8 said:

We are also from Ohio (Dayton) and driving down on Sunday.  We should carpool!

Me too!  Although living in SC now.  But with a daughter started at Clemson this year, you'll see me in orange AND Scarlet and Gray this cruise!  😉

[GA Dave]

2 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

11 am update is in for Wednesday.

 

Dorian is passing close to St. Croix, Next it will pass Vieques and Culebra east of Puerto Rico and then affect the eastern edge of PR.  Strength is building.  It is now expected to become a hurricane very soon - as it leave PR perhaps.  And then to be Category 3 somewhere off the NE and N of the Bahamas (Freeport area.)  Being a small storm I don't think the Bahama Islands will see more than tropical storm or Cat. 1 for some.  Path could change still 2 days out.

 

Landfall for Florida about the same - Melbourne/Titusville area which includes Port Canaveral, as a Category 2 storm now. That area had impact in 2016 when I ended up there instead of Bermuda.  

 

UPDATE: They reissued the 11am chart and winds.  Now forecast Category 3 for Florida Landfall. Time to make preparations up and down the coast.  Expect no cruises for 2 days in Port Canaveral, Sunday and Monday I think.  Expect air travel issues for Orlando and West Palm.  Maybe more.

 

TWC map.  115mph sustained.  Ouch!

[buckeyefrank]

1 hour ago, karajeboo said:

Me too!  Although living in SC now.  But with a daughter started at Clemson this year, you'll see me in orange AND Scarlet and Gray this cruise!  😉

 

Uhm, Isn't that illegal??   LOL.  I guess it's better than Xichigan or Notre Dame.  

 

My family and I will be in our Scarlet and Gray the entire week.

Edited August 28, 2019 by buckeyefrank

[karajeboo]

1 minute ago, buckeyefrank said:

 

Uhm, Isn't that illegal??   LOL.  I guess it's better than Xichigan or Notre Dame.  

 

My family and I will be in our Scarlet and Gray the entire week.

It's tough to say the least!  As much orange and purple as she's accumulated lately I asked her the other day, "do you even still HATE Xichigan anymore?"  lol . She laughed and said no matter what she'll always hate Xichigan.

 

Based on the 2:00 update, I'm really wondering now if our captain just waits until tomorrow to decide his course (with Carnival assistance of course)?  I wonder if we could maybe leave a couple hours early tomorrow, try to get into the Bahamas Friday morning?  Then head west then north up the coast of FL and back into safe waters for two days at sea?  Or cruise around out the path of Dorian for two days then head to Bahamas on Sunday after the storm is past?  I just keep thinking how we are required to stop in a foreign port?

[buckeyefrank]

Just now, karajeboo said:

It's tough to say the least!  As much orange and purple as she's accumulated lately I asked her the other day, "do you even still HATE Xichigan anymore?"  lol . She laughed and said no matter what she'll always hate Xichigan.

 

Based on the 2:00 update, I'm really wondering now if our captain just waits until tomorrow to decide his course (with Carnival assistance of course)?  I wonder if we could maybe leave a couple hours early tomorrow, try to get into the Bahamas Friday morning?  Then head west then north up the coast of FL and back into safe waters for two days at sea?  Or cruise around out the path of Dorian for two days then head to Bahamas on Sunday after the storm is past?  I just keep thinking how we are required to stop in a foreign port?

We will be on the 9/2 sailing actually, leaving Monday.  Ports shouldn't be an issue for us, it's just whether we can get out and how choppy it will be.  Good luck with the weather!

[cruiseanon32]

2 PM Advisory

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian
should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon and then move over the open Atlantic well
east of the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening
during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the
north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center.
An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas
reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph
(178 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is
997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the
British Virgin Islands today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

[Fogfog]

1 hour ago, karajeboo said:

Me too!  Although living in SC now.  But with a daughter started at Clemson this year, you'll see me in orange AND Scarlet and Gray this cruise!  😉

Goooo TIGERS!

🐯

[bobsfamily]

3 hours ago, GA Buddy said:

Still no word of changes from NCL about the Sun sailing tomorrow out of Port Canaveral.

Unless we receive something from them tonight we are headed down in the AM

Can't be any worse than the crossing from Miami to Bimini on a 65' sailboat in 25' seas I did years back on a dive trip LOL

The return to port may be interesting with it scheduled to return Monday AM

We leave early in the morning flying into Orlando with NCL bus to port... Embarkation should be no problem.

We leave at 1:45pm from Orlando back to CHS on Monday... I wonder if that will happen.  I guess NCL (we booked airfare with them) will "help" us with different flights if they cannot get into port?

[Fogfog]

2 minutes ago, bobsfamily said:

We leave early in the morning flying into Orlando with NCL bus to port... Embarkation should be no problem.

We leave at 1:45pm from Orlando back to CHS on Monday... I wonder if that will happen.  I guess NCL (we booked airfare with them) will "help" us with different flights if they cannot get into port?

I believe re flights, yes NCL will help with that -- hotel if needed is on you. 

If you have trip insurance that will help as well

[bobsfamily]

Just now, Fogfog said:

I believe re flights, yes NCL will help with that -- hotel if needed is on you. 

If you have trip insurance that will help as well

Yes we have NCL insurance so hopefully that will cover it. Thankfully work can wait til Wednesday...  here I am worried about a vacation when others might have a very bad few days. Hopefully the dang thing ends up out to sea and the damage done is all that happens!

[PelicanBill]

2 hours ago, phillyguy31 said:

Thanks Bill this is very informative and to be honest a bit scary for us. Our grandson just started college in Melbourne, my wife and I decided not to say anything to our daughter to avoid her freaking out.

Schools are very good at managing these things and always have defined shelters and plans for food and water during difficult times.  It could be an adventure, but, he should be safe!

[PelicanBill]

30 minutes ago, bobsfamily said:

We leave early in the morning flying into Orlando with NCL bus to port... Embarkation should be no problem.

We leave at 1:45pm from Orlando back to CHS on Monday... I wonder if that will happen.  I guess NCL (we booked airfare with them) will "help" us with different flights if they cannot get into port?

Typically they provide limited free access to the internet or phones calls to reach your airline and make alternate arrangement.  But you have to do the legwork. I don't know if it's any different if you got air through the cruise line.  In many of these cases in recent years, people struggled to do so before returning to port, or to get air on the day of return with hundreds if not thousands of affected air travelers. So often people end up staying 1 or 2 nights shore as they make arrangements to get a flight and wait for it.  (Good to have 2 extra days of clothes and medicine...)

[bobsfamily]

2 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Typically they provide limited free access to the internet or phones calls to reach your airline and make alternate arrangement.  But you have to do the legwork. I don't know if it's any different if you got air through the cruise line.  In many of these cases in recent years, people struggled to do so before returning to port, or to get air on the day of return with hundreds if not thousands of affected air travelers. So often people end up staying 1 or 2 nights shore as they make arrangements to get a flight and wait for it.  (Good to have 2 extra days of clothes and medicine...)

Thanks! I wonder if I should book a car for Tuesday morning hoping the ship ports a day late? Just in case, 7 hours home...

[Jasonmom]

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