RCL Stock

[zebra36]

2 hours ago, Biker19 said:

A few excerpts from their 8-K filing yesterday:

 

 

 

We have begun certain limited operations and have announced additional cruise operations on 34 out of our 59 Global and Partner Brand ships commencing between June 2021 and August 2021, 12 homeporting from locations within the United States and 22 homeporting outside of the U.S. 

 

Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

Would the 12 homeporting US locations cover all US locations?

[Biker19]

1 hour ago, zebra36 said:

Would the 12 homeporting US locations cover all US locations?

It's not 12 homeports, but 12 ships in various US home ports.

[At Sea At Peace]

Although it's been a nice run up since March 2020 collapse, and those that do that in & out stock play, the current financial fundamentals are bleak and it appears really doubtful the actual money-making revenue cruises will return (i.e., profits) at all in 2021.

 

The debt accumulated by the big 3 is massive and not the friendliest of rates.

 

The current debt raise, to pay off an earlier maturing one, had 'junk bond' headline status across the financial print and digital news.

 

Again, the current PPS of the big 3, when retain investors look at the 52-week High and Low, is mind blowing when one accounts (it's not factored in the H&L's) the increase share count from the past 15 months or the convertible debt exposure.  These stocks, when factored these two items, are price 'way above the 52-week High (or 2019 High, when they were 100% profitably revenue operating).

 

Just IMO.  

[livingonthebeach]

RCL (symbol) is trading is trading up in pre-opening ($87.60).  Analysts have upgraded the stock to $94 just now.  Unaffected by the junk bond offering or recent positive Covid cases. 

[At Sea At Peace]

3 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

RCL (symbol) is trading is trading up in pre-opening ($87.60).  Analysts have upgraded the stock to $94 just now.  Unaffected by the junk bond offering or recent positive Covid cases. 

 

Agree.

 

Don't get me wrong.  I'm simply amazed at the valuations the big 3 are sustaining.  Then again, I'm a fundamentals guy (most of the time).  🙄

[coldflame]

6 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Agree.

 

Don't get me wrong.  I'm simply amazed at the valuations the big 3 are sustaining.  Then again, I'm a fundamentals guy (most of the time).  🙄

 

2 rounds of dilution (last year) + expensive loans and the stocks is trading as if RCL was bringing in money hand over fist. NCL and CCL are also trading at incredible growth expectations, which at this point is pure hype.

[grandgeezer]

3 hours ago, coldflame said:

 

2 rounds of dilution (last year) + expensive loans and the stocks is trading as if RCL was bringing in money hand over fist. NCL and CCL are also trading at incredible growth expectations, which at this point is pure hype.

When RCL was making money hand over fist, the stock hit an all time high on 1/17/2020 of $135.05 per share. Not quite there yet.

[At Sea At Peace]

3 hours ago, coldflame said:

 

2 rounds of dilution (last year) + expensive loans and the stocks is trading as if RCL was bringing in money hand over fist. NCL and CCL are also trading at incredible growth expectations, which at this point is pure hype.

 

Yep, 20% dilution so far.

 

Much more debt to service @ higher rates.

 

14 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

When RCL was making money hand over fist, the stock hit an all time high on 1/17/2020 of $135.05 per share. Not quite there yet.

 

$108 when adjusted for actual dilution.  So, pretty close recently.

 

And they certainly aren't making money 'hand over fist like they certainly were in January 2020 and prior to.

 

The comment is that it is amazing that an essentially shut down public company is trading close to its all time highs 'while closed and burning hundreds of millions a month, with the forecast of little to no actual revenue sailings that are profitable this year, and a multiple of debt service.

 

 

[bonsai3s]

53 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

 

The comment is that it is amazing that an essentially shut down public company is trading close to its all time highs 'while closed and burning hundreds of millions a month, with the forecast of little to no actual revenue sailings that are profitable this year, and a multiple of debt service.

 

 

Quite amazing and difficult to explain.

RCCL will come back, IMHO. (Yes, we are shareholders)

 

1. We were smiling last night watching all the current videos on the Adventure of the Seas sailing out of Nassau.  Everyone genuinely excited to finally get back onboard. And just by looking at the number of "views"...there are lots of interested people.

 

2. I am hoping to get lucky again. Back in the day, many of my friends thought I was crazy buying Chrysler stocks...it was cheap, perhaps under $5/share at the time...bankruptcy looming in the horizon.  Then a guy named Lee Iaccoca took over the company.  The rest is history.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Yep, 20% dilution so far.

 

Much more debt to service @ higher rates.

 

 

$108 when adjusted for actual dilution.  So, pretty close recently.

 

And they certainly aren't making money 'hand over fist like they certainly were in January 2020 and prior to.

 

The comment is that it is amazing that an essentially shut down public company is trading close to its all time highs 'while closed and burning hundreds of millions a month, with the forecast of little to no actual revenue sailings that are profitable this year, and a multiple of debt service.

 

 

If you would sell your shares now, could you get $108? Sounds like creative accounting.

[At Sea At Peace]

1 hour ago, grandgeezer said:

If you would sell your shares now, could you get $108? Sounds like creative accounting.

 

I believe you missed my point.  I merely pointed out that with 20% dilution, to compare the current PPS compared to a prior HIGH PPS, on must account for the 20% dilution.

 

It's simple math that, with the # of shares 'now' outstanding, a PPS of $108 would be where it would match the highs of 2019-2020; pointing out that it is remarkably close to that level for a public company in an environment of almost complete shutdown.

 

👍

[coldflame]

4 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

When RCL was making money hand over fist, the stock hit an all time high on 1/17/2020 of $135.05 per share. Not quite there yet.

 

Given revenue $0 for 18 months, 20% dilution, 650Million @ 7% credit liability, this stock should be trading around $30. The fact that it's hovering around $90 is a bit of a miracle, quite honestly.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

I believe you missed my point.  I merely pointed out that with 20% dilution, to compare the current PPS compared to a prior HIGH PPS, on must account for the 20% dilution.

 

It's simple math that, with the # of shares 'now' outstanding, a PPS of $108 would be where it would match the highs of 2019-2020; pointing out that it is remarkably close to that level for a public company in an environment of almost complete shutdown.

 

👍

You missed the question “Could you sell the stock today for $108?” If not, the rest is not pertanent.

[At Sea At Peace]

10 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

You missed the question “Could you sell the stock today for $108?” If not, the rest is not pertanent.

 

OMG.  

 

Yikes.

[slease]

I don't own any RCL but looking at the price which seems very overvalued I purchased an $89 put option for 7/2 when it was hovering around $95.  Looking pretty good and considering purchasing another longer term.  I don't see the value here without time to recover.

[Biker19]

On June 24, 2021, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced offering of $650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.250% Senior Notes due 2026 (the “Notes”). The Company received net proceeds from the offering of approximately $640.6 million (after deducting fees, commissions and expenses), which it intends to use to fund the redemption in full of approximately $619.8 million aggregate principal amount of the 7.25% senior secured notes due 2025 issued by Silversea Cruise Finance Ltd. (including to pay call premiums, fees, accrued interest and expenses in connection with such redemption), and the remaining for general corporate purposes.

 

The Notes were issued by the Company pursuant to an indenture, dated June 24, 2021 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., as trustee, principal paying agent, transfer agent and registrar.

 

Interest on the Notes accrues from June 24, 2021 and is payable semi-annually in arrears on January 1 and July 1 of each year, beginning on January 1, 2022, at a rate of 4.250% per year. The Notes will mature on July 1, 2026 unless earlier redeemed or repurchased.

 

Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

[zebra36]

Well at least they were able to refinance at a lower rate.

[reney313]

I remember the day I sold my 100 shares.  I had bought at @30 and it was at $60.  I doubled my money!  That was several years ago.  If only....and I almost got back in last year when I saw it drop so low (although, that was the first time I was able to "congratulate" myself for selling at $60.  haha).

[At Sea At Peace]

21 hours ago, Biker19 said:

On June 24, 2021, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced offering of $650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 4.250% Senior Notes due 2026 (the “Notes”). The Company received net proceeds from the offering of approximately $640.6 million (after deducting fees, commissions and expenses), which it intends to use to fund the redemption in full of approximately $619.8 million aggregate principal amount of the 7.25% senior secured notes due 2025 issued by Silversea Cruise Finance Ltd. (including to pay call premiums, fees, accrued interest and expenses in connection with such redemption), and the remaining for general corporate purposes.

 

The Notes were issued by the Company pursuant to an indenture, dated June 24, 2021 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., as trustee, principal paying agent, transfer agent and registrar.

 

Interest on the Notes accrues from June 24, 2021 and is payable semi-annually in arrears on January 1 and July 1 of each year, beginning on January 1, 2022, at a rate of 4.250% per year. The Notes will mature on July 1, 2026 unless earlier redeemed or repurchased.

 

Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

 

Thanks.

 

Refinancing @ lower rate is great.

 

I'm glad others are doing good with the big 3 cruise stocks.

 

IMO, they are so overvalued in an over the top hyped market that it's not for me.  Tens of billions of new debt, no real assurance of when return to full pre-pandemic revenue cruises, new ships still on order.  It is amazing the stocks are at this level.  Then again, on a broader market, it felt like this in 2007-2008 also, along with real estate.  😲

[Biker19]

(1)    This Registration Statement registers an additional 1,500,000 shares of common stock, par value $.01 per share (“Common Stock”), for issuance under the Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 1994 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, as amended (the “Plan”). In addition, pursuant to Rule 416 promulgated under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, this Registration Statement covers an indeterminate amount of additional shares of Common Stock which may be issued under the Plan as a result of any stock split, stock dividend, recapitalization or other similar transaction effected without the receipt of consideration which results in an increase in the number of outstanding shares of Common Stock.

 

(2)     Estimated solely for the purpose of calculating the registration fee pursuant to Rule 457(h) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The price is based upon the average of the high and low prices of the Common Stock as reported on the New York Stock Exchange on June 22, 2021, of $86.94 and $84.52, respectively.

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000110465921085841/tm2120601d1_s8.htm

[Biker19]

Booking volumes have improved and pricing remains strong at Royal Caribbean Group, which expects to have 80% of its fleet back in service by year-end.

 

So far, the Delta variant has had only a modest impact on closer-in bookings. 

$1.3bn loss

The bookings strength overshadowed the company's second quarter adjusted net loss of $1.3bn, or $5.06 per share — higher than Wall Street's forecast $4.40 — and US GAAP net loss of $1.3bn, or $7.83 per share. Year-ago adjusted net loss was $1.3bn, or $6.13 per share, and US GAAP net loss of $1.6bn, or $7.83 per share.

 

Total revenues were $50.9m, down from $175.6m in Q1 2020.

50% more bookings

During Q2, Royal Caribbean chalked up about 50% more new bookings compared to Q1, with trends improving from one month to the next. By June, the company was receiving about 90% more bookings each week when compared to Q1, with improvements of a similar magnitude for both 2021 and 2022 sailings.

 

Overall, the booking activity for 2021 sailings is consistent with the company's expected capacity and occupancy ramp-up, at prices that are higher than 2019. 

As of June 30, Royal Caribbean had approximately $2.4bn in customer deposits, an increase of $530m from March 31. Approximately 40% of the customer deposit balance is related to future cruise credits; this has dropped from 45% in the prior quarter — a positive trend, indicating net new demand.

29 ships, 42% of capacity, currently operating

Already, 29 ships are operating across the group's five brands, representing 42% of capacity. By the end of this month, 36 ships should be in service, or over 60% of capacity. Yesterday, the company said it expects the full fleet to be sailing by spring 2022. 

 

'After 16 months of being at a virtual standstill and another painful financial result this quarter, the flywheel is clearly picking up momentum,' Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain said. 'Since the pandemic began, our objective has been to make our ships safer than Main Street, and today, we are proving that ambitious goal is achievable. We are also encouraged by the booking outlook especially for 2022 and beyond.'

 

2022 booked load factor is within historical ranges, with sailings in the spring and summer months performing particularly well. Prices for 2022 are up versus a record-setting 2019, even including the dilutive impact of future cruise credits. 

 

'The surge in bookings has been extremely encouraging especially for 2022 and beyond,' Fain said. 'The return of cruising has been faster than anyone expected, and we are excited to gradually restart our presence in our key markets. We are watching the impact of the Delta variant and other likely variants, but overall, we remain optimistic in our mounting trajectory going forward. People also book their cruises long in advance, so we are concentrating on maintaining our price levels while growing our load factors.'

Returns to service

Since Royal Caribbean's last business update in April, the company has announced itineraries for 21 ships sailing by Aug. 31. This includes 12 ships from US ports. This is in addition to 15 ships previously announced sailing from ports outside the US. In total, 36 ships from five brands, or over 60% of the Royal Caribbean fleet, have either resumed sailing or been announced to resume sailing by the end of August.

 

EVP and CFO Jason Liberty described a 'healthy demand environment,' adding: 'We are very optimistic with our accelerated start in the United States and globally. We anticipate 80% of our fleet to be back in service by year-end ...'

Monthly cash burn

Q2's average monthly cash burn rate was approximately $330m, slightly higher than the prior quarter as additional ships resumed operations.

$5bn of liquidity

Since suspending cruises in March 2020, the group has raised approximately $13bn through a combination of bond issuances, common stock offerings and other loan facilities.

Royal Caribbean ended Q2 with $5bn of liquidity.

Elevated on-board spend

Liberty added: 'We are very encouraged by the continued pent-up demand for cruising shown by our accelerated booking trends globally and the elevated on-board spend we are seeing from our guests on current sailings.'

 

Royal Caribbean bookings surge, pricing strong, overshadowing Q2 loss (seatrade-cruise.com)

[Jimbo]

We need to pipe in some Bird sounds when "Fain" speaks.................just like he is still in his garden at home and never left.

[At Sea At Peace]

It's possibly a bit disingenuous to infer that a # of ships divided by the total # ships in fleet is the real 'back to capacity data.'  It would have been more appropriate to include the % of capacities per ship and for the whole fleet and then report the actual 'back to capacity data.'

[Blizzard54]

Just home from Ovation simulated voyage, it went well.

[Baron Barracuda]

RCG quarterly loss of  $1.3B  was same as last year but thanks to all those new shares they issued EPS increased from ($6.13) to ($5.06).  Ain't dilution wonderful.