DirtyDawg Posted July 28, 2022 #2301 Share Posted July 28, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said: People are buying these headlines today: "Royal Caribbean sees return to profitability in second quarter" "Royal Caribbean's loss narrows as cruise bookings rebound" But the devil is in the details. Interest rates and fuel cost continue to hinder any long range progress: "Royal Caribbean Now Expects Loss in Second Half of 2022" And Free Cash Flow in Q2 was in the range of -$3B (-.5B from Ops and -2.5B from Capex and Cash paid on settlement of derivative financial instruments) But hey, RCL is dropping mask requirements! 🥳 Edited July 28, 2022 by DirtyDawg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlohaLivin Posted July 28, 2022 #2302 Share Posted July 28, 2022 We have continued to buy stock in RCL, NCL, and AirBNB from the initial dive through the last weeks. I have no more ability to predict the future than anyone else, but we feel good about these for the future. But the numbers show that at this time the things that people are still spending money on are gas, food, and travel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare BermudaBound2014 Posted July 28, 2022 #2303 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Just now, AlohaLivin said: We have continued to buy stock in RCL, NCL, and AirBNB from the initial dive through the last weeks. I have no more ability to predict the future than anyone else, but we feel good about these for the future. But the numbers show that at this time the things that people are still spending money on are gas, food, and travel. I don't have an ability to predict the future anymore than you do, but what people are spending money on may not be enough to save the cruise lines from restructuring. To me, servicing the debt appears insurmountable, even if cruises are sailing at 100% occupancy. IMO, the option of wiping out debt and starting fresh is on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Barracuda Posted July 28, 2022 #2304 Share Posted July 28, 2022 Jason Liberty apparently commented RCL has no current plans to issue equity. That's the good news. Read through the earnings announcement which shows continued slow, gradual improvement. Little hope for rapid return to profitability but no new red flags either. Would have hoped for greater enthusiasm for 4q '22 when loads are expected to top 100%. One item that struck me was the expense ratios at the end of the financials. They report total Gross Costs per APCD at just over $200. Gross costs include just about everything except interest expense. Adding that $300mm brings total costs up to $230 per APCD implying that if every ship was sailing at 100% occupancy they need to earn $230/pp/day to break even. While suites run a lot higher they only make up around 15% of cabins. Yesterday while perusing October '22 - April '23 sailings for a number of ships I was struck by how most were offering balconies for only around $77/night. Even next summer balconies on Caribbean itineraries are only running $150 - $170 pp/day. Onboard sales will help but they'll need stronger pricing to generate any meaningful earnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ocean Boy Posted July 28, 2022 #2305 Share Posted July 28, 2022 30 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said: Jason Liberty apparently commented RCL has no current plans to issue equity. That's the good news. Read through the earnings announcement which shows continued slow, gradual improvement. Little hope for rapid return to profitability but no new red flags either. Would have hoped for greater enthusiasm for 4q '22 when loads are expected to top 100%. One item that struck me was the expense ratios at the end of the financials. They report total Gross Costs per APCD at just over $200. Gross costs include just about everything except interest expense. Adding that $300mm brings total costs up to $230 per APCD implying that if every ship was sailing at 100% occupancy they need to earn $230/pp/day to break even. While suites run a lot higher they only make up around 15% of cabins. Yesterday while perusing October '22 - April '23 sailings for a number of ships I was struck by how most were offering balconies for only around $77/night. Even next summer balconies on Caribbean itineraries are only running $150 - $170 pp/day. Onboard sales will help but they'll need stronger pricing to generate any meaningful earnings. No way would I pay $230 pp per day for a standard balcony cabin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another_Critic Posted July 28, 2022 #2306 Share Posted July 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said: No way would I pay $230 pp per day for a standard balcony cabin. I paid $37.67 pp per day for a balcony cabin on my 11 night May TA. 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ocean Boy Posted July 28, 2022 #2307 Share Posted July 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Another_Critic said: I paid $37.67 pp per day for a balcony cabin on my 11 night May TA. 🙂 Sweet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare John&LaLa Posted July 28, 2022 #2308 Share Posted July 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said: No way would I pay $230 pp per day for a standard balcony cabin. Our upcoming GS on Voyager is $90 pppd Addind airfare brings it to $400+ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare John&LaLa Posted July 28, 2022 #2309 Share Posted July 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Another_Critic said: I paid $37.67 pp per day for a balcony cabin on my 11 night May TA. 🙂 How much with airfare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another_Critic Posted July 28, 2022 #2310 Share Posted July 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, John&LaLa said: How much with airfare? 30K miles pp for a seat in the baggage hold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare John&LaLa Posted July 28, 2022 #2311 Share Posted July 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, Another_Critic said: 30K miles pp for a seat in the baggage hold. 5 years retired. Miles all gone. Actually fine with that😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another_Critic Posted July 28, 2022 #2312 Share Posted July 28, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, John&LaLa said: 5 years retired. Miles all gone. Actually fine with that😁 The one-way economy air from LHR was priced at $2k+ per person, so it was definitely better to use miles. The miles were actually my [now deceased] fathers. Also booked air to CPH for 30k each with his miles. I have a bunch of AA miles, plus tons of points with Chase and AMEX that I can convert to miles. Maybe I will use some of my miles after I retire in December. 🙂 Edited July 28, 2022 by Another_Critic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another_Critic Posted July 28, 2022 #2313 Share Posted July 28, 2022 41 minutes ago, John&LaLa said: Our upcoming GS on Voyager is $90 pppd Addind airfare brings it to $400+ You stole that cabin. 😄 My Spacious Oceanview for my Voyager TA is $75 pppd. It's currently going for $200 pppd. 😲 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare John&LaLa Posted July 28, 2022 #2314 Share Posted July 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Another_Critic said: You stole that cabin. 😄 My Spacious Oceanview for my Voyager TA is $75 pppd. It's currently going for $200 pppd. 😲 L&S from Adventure to Jewel to Voyager. Started with a VP. Jewel doesnt have them, so TA got me a GS. Moved to Voyager and got an extra day. 😇 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another_Critic Posted July 28, 2022 #2315 Share Posted July 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, John&LaLa said: L&S from Adventure to Jewel to Voyager. Started with a VP. Jewel doesnt have them, so TA got me a GS. Moved to Voyager and got an extra day. 😇 Yeah, mine was L&S from 12 night Jewel TA to 14 night Voyager TA. 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare exm Posted July 29, 2022 #2316 Share Posted July 29, 2022 And sold my stocks purchased just before the ER with a nice 10% profit. I'm not sure about NCL, so I'm taking a wait-and-see approach until they release their numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Barracuda Posted July 29, 2022 #2317 Share Posted July 29, 2022 (edited) Q: What do Bank of America, Susquehanna, CFRA, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank all have in common? A: After reviewing 2q financials and listening to conference call all cut their price target on RCL today. B of A is the lowest at $35. Edited July 29, 2022 by Baron Barracuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker19 Posted July 29, 2022 #2318 Share Posted July 29, 2022 ^ and yet, the stock is up a bit more, when usually downgrades like that tank the stock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare John&LaLa Posted July 29, 2022 #2319 Share Posted July 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, Biker19 said: ^ and yet, the stock is up a bit more, when usually downgrades like that tank the stock. Cruise stocks rarely make sense. Bought back in at $35, the booked OBC has me covered down to $15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare livingonthebeach Posted July 29, 2022 #2320 Share Posted July 29, 2022 19 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said: Q: What do Bank of America, Susquehanna, CFRA, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank all have in common? A: After reviewing 2q financials and listening to conference call all cut their price target on RCL today. B of A is the lowest at $35. It's up to $38 as of now - went up since yesterday - Carnival and NCL are down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDawg Posted July 29, 2022 #2321 Share Posted July 29, 2022 44 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said: Q: What do Bank of America, Susquehanna, CFRA, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank all have in common? A: After reviewing 2q financials and listening to conference call all cut their price target on RCL today. B of A is the lowest at $35. Perhaps those investment banks had higher price targets hoping to be part of an underwriting group for a Royal equity issue and all the very large underwriting fees that go along with an equity issue. Now that Royal said no to a new equity issue in the near future ....... 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare BermudaBound2014 Posted July 29, 2022 #2322 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Stock is up because people are reading the headlines and not the 10Q. Here is the 10Q if anyone is interested. https://www.rclinvestor.com/financial-info/sec-filings/ @At Sea At Peace what's your interpretation? You've been quiet and I miss you 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare BermudaBound2014 Posted August 1, 2022 #2323 Share Posted August 1, 2022 RCL kept to their word and didn't issue new common stock (yet) but they just offered up 900 million in Bonds lol... stock should react to this tidbit Royal Caribbean Group said Monday it has commenced a private offering of $900 million of senior convertible bonds that mature in 2025. The company said it would grant the initial purchasers an option to purchase up to $135 million more in convertible bonds. "The purpose of the offering is to replace some of the existing near-term maturities of convertible bonds with new longer-term convertible bonds in a manner which is non-dilutive to shareholders as described below," said Naftali Holtz, Chief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDawg Posted August 1, 2022 #2324 Share Posted August 1, 2022 45 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said: RCL kept to their word and didn't issue new common stock (yet) but they just offered up 900 million in Bonds lol... stock should react to this tidbit Royal Caribbean Group said Monday it has commenced a private offering of $900 million of senior convertible bonds that mature in 2025. The company said it would grant the initial purchasers an option to purchase up to $135 million more in convertible bonds. "The purpose of the offering is to replace some of the existing near-term maturities of convertible bonds with new longer-term convertible bonds in a manner which is non-dilutive to shareholders as described below," said Naftali Holtz, Chief It looks like these are quasi private placement convertible bonds to replace some current issues of convertible bonds, a 2.875% convertible senior notes due November 15, 2023 and 4.25% convertible senior notes due June 15, 2023. i.e. non dilutive and my guess at a high interest rate and better conversion price for the purchasers. Sadly, they will only be sold to Institutional buyers and will not be registered for public purchases if anyone was interested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker19 Posted August 1, 2022 #2325 Share Posted August 1, 2022 1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said: stock should react to this tidbit Down 10+%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now