If Cruising Abroad Later this Year or Next

[klfrodo]

Pay attention to the currency exchange rates.

Take advantage of some favorable exchange rates if you can.

Might as well get some good out this bad situation.

[puppycanducruise]

Good for you, bad for us. 

With unstability, the world runs to the US dollar for stability.  So, your dollar is doing fine, ours is tanking.  That will be good for our exporters, bad for importing.

You're right, make some good out of this bad situation.

[Hlitner]

For those of us in the USA, I am not sure "paying attention" to currency fluctuations is an issue...at the current time.  It does not impact most bookings on cruises or for the airlines since we do that in dollars.  While it could impact hotels in some countries, that would generally mean booking now in the local currency.  Since the lowest prices are generally for non-refundable deals, that is not a smart move in the current environment.   Just a few days ago I teased DW that we should jump in the car and drive to Canada to both help their economy and take advantage of the fantastic exchange rate.  Today, the border has been closed so glad we did not go.

 

We live in Mexico for ten weeks a year and spend a lot of Pesos.  Today the wholesale exchange rate is about 23.7 Pesos to the US Dollar.  I believe that is the best rate for Americans, in history.  Just a few weeks ago that rate was about 18.7 to $1.  But that amazing exchange rate is meaningless to me since we are now back in the USA and will not be returning to Mexico until next January.  For anyone wondering why the Peso has lost so much value, we think that much of the change is due to the huge fall in oil prices...which usually has a major impact on the Peso.

 

Hank

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, klfrodo said:

Pay attention to the currency exchange rates.

Take advantage of some favorable exchange rates if you can.

Might as well get some good out this bad situation.

Oh, that's great advice for a bunch of amateurs:  jump into currency arbitrage while sheltering in place.

[chipmaster]

Dreaming if there will be any normalcy in the next 6-9 month, maybe 2022

 

China initiated really draconian measures and only after almost 10 weeks did any sort of containment appeared.

 

Italy represents the worst case situation followed by many including the US, they were overwhelmed due to the delayed response the US is likely looking like Italy in 4 weeks.  US just started the some attempt at mitigation/containment locally and expect each region wll become a little italy.     I predict it will be two months of total craziness and then a quarter of recovery.

 

Stocks, currency will continue to fall, who knows China, So Korea, Taiwan may be come the first countries to become stable and recover, the US could be 9 months behind due our terrible response.

[Toofarfromthesea]

8 hours ago, chipmaster said:

Dreaming if there will be any normalcy in the next 6-9 month, maybe 2022

 

China initiated really draconian measures and only after almost 10 weeks did any sort of containment appeared.

 

Italy represents the worst case situation followed by many including the US, they were overwhelmed due to the delayed response the US is likely looking like Italy in 4 weeks.  US just started the some attempt at mitigation/containment locally and expect each region wll become a little italy.     I predict it will be two months of total craziness and then a quarter of recovery.

 

Stocks, currency will continue to fall, who knows China, So Korea, Taiwan may be come the first countries to become stable and recover, the US could be 9 months behind due our terrible response.

 

The situations in the US and Italy are completely different:

1) Italy's population is 9 years older than ours

2) Italy has a much higher smoking rate, and hence a higher proportion of citizens with pre-existing lung problems

3) Italy spends about half as much as the US on infectious disease control, and

4) Italy has a disproportionately high number of Chinese nationals as a result of defying the EU and G7 and signing onto the Chinese One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative.  Under the initiative, projects in Tuscany and Lombardy were financed by Chinese banks, and contracted out to Chinese companies who brought in their own supplies and workers.  "Coincidentally" the worst of the outbreak is in Tuscany and Lombardy.

Iran is another nation that signed on to the OBOR initiative to use a Chinese company using Chinese nationals to build high speed rail in Qom.  Which, "coincidentally", is the center of the Iranian hotspot.  The fact that it is a spiritual center that draws pilgrims who then spread it more widely, and Iran's initial approach was bravado, exacerbated the situation.

So no, the progress of the infection in Italy and Iran is NOT a good model for what we can expect.

[chipmaster]

29 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

The situations in the US and Italy are completely different:

1) Italy's population is 9 years older than ours

2) Italy has a much higher smoking rate, and hence a higher proportion of citizens with pre-existing lung problems

3) Italy spends about half as much as the US on infectious disease control, and

4) Italy has a disproportionately high number of Chinese nationals as a result of defying the EU and G7 and signing onto the Chinese One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative.  Under the initiative, projects in Tuscany and Lombardy were financed by Chinese banks, and contracted out to Chinese companies who brought in their own supplies and workers.  "Coincidentally" the worst of the outbreak is in Tuscany and Lombardy.

Iran is another nation that signed on to the OBOR initiative to use a Chinese company using Chinese nationals to build high speed rail in Qom.  Which, "coincidentally", is the center of the Iranian hotspot.  The fact that it is a spiritual center that draws pilgrims who then spread it more widely, and Iran's initial approach was bravado, exacerbated the situation.

So no, the progress of the infection in Italy and Iran is NOT a good model for what we can expect.

 

 

FWIW young are still partying on Spring Break, and cities and many states haven't imposed anything, so and US testing as a percentage of population pales to the rest of the western world.   Till the hospitals are over-run will we react, looks like POTUS is more concerned about the stock exchange and unemployment figures then the implication of this under tested curve!

 

Let's not forget Italy is far fewer total population, but agree they are older and crammed together so higher Ro and higher death rate, but we are just 4-6 weeks behind instead of the actual 2 week delay shown in the curve, let's chat end of April, nothing would make me happier than being wrong, lots of people have a year's supply of toilet paper, LOL

Edited March 19, 2020 by chipmaster