When will HAL cruises REALLY restart?

[jmkennett]

On 3/23/2020 at 6:42 AM, NukeTim said:

Just wondering what others are thinkings.  Looking at the HAL site I see that the April 15, 2020 sailing of the

Maasdam to Mexico can be booked (we were scheduled for the April 1 sailing).  Is it realistic to think that

cruising will restart the second half of April?  I'm thinking of booking a cruise in May but will it really 'go'?

I know there is a 'cruise guarantee' but I'm still waiting for my FCC from the canceled cruise.

I want to go tomorrow and we have one planned this summer for Europe and Iceland. Not much I’d rather do then go on a cruise, but doubtful it will happen.  The UK is talking about six months in quarantine.   It pains me to say,  but I don’t think anything will start up again until at least late Summer and that is pushing it.   I think anywhere outside the Caribbean will be cancelled for this year.  2021 might be more optimistic.
 

I just don’t see it how they start up until there is a proven treatment or vaccine.  The World is on edge.  Nerves will be high.  Every time there is an announcement from the captain, will there be fear of a problem?  If one person has symptoms, will ports refuse to allow the ship to dock?  Will everyone be quarantined?  Start all over again with this craziness?   It’s a nightmare and I don’t know if anyone has an answer.  This has to be what is keeping Mr. Ashford up at night.  I feel terrible for him.  Met him a few years back and he is a good man.

 

i don’t worry about catching the virus.  I get it’s serious, but I’ll take my chances with Sweden’s approach. I think the World has gone nuts, but that is a different conversation. My worry would be ending up like most of the other ships over the last couple weeks.  Not sure I want to risk it.   Not being able to get home.  Stuck at sea.   Stuck in quarantine.  Etc.  That is what the cruise lines need to overcome and I’m not sure they can do it in the near future.  And, I hate it.  Wish I had an answer.  Watched a few sail out of FLL yesterday to nowhere,  empty of passengers, and I wanted to cry.

 

 

 

 

[HappyInVan]

At the moment, I'm not that pessimistic. Germany has finally stepped up social restrictions. Most European nations are in lock down. Might peak in Europe by late April. Might reduce most social and travel restrictions by June/July.

 

The citizen is the most factor during this time. The iron discipline to avoid infecting each other. The social distancing and personal hygiene. To learn to wear a mask the moment you feel symptoms coming on.

 

The Asians have already acquired the etiquette. Westerners will have to learn.

 

Cruising will be annoying. The repeated thermal inspections. The possibility of self-isolation and missed ports. IN effect, the first cruises might just be days at sea.

 

 

 

 

[cruiseing marly]

1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

At the moment, I'm not that pessimistic. Germany has finally stepped up social restrictions. Most European nations are in lock down. Might peak in Europe by late April. Might reduce most social and travel restrictions by June/July.

 

The citizen is the most factor during this time. The iron discipline to avoid infecting each other. The social distancing and personal hygiene. To learn to wear a mask the moment you feel symptoms coming on.

 

The Asians have already acquired the etiquette. Westerners will have to learn.

 

Cruising will be annoying. The repeated thermal inspections. The possibility of self-isolation and missed ports. IN effect, the first cruises might just be days at sea.

 

 

 

 

First we need to be able to purchase masks .

[Cap-n Andy]

I am sixty-four years old with underlying medical conditions.  I will not cruise until there is a vaccine for Covid-19.

[Bramcruiser]

We have a big European vacation with a cruise as part of it scheduled for July. If you asked me a month ago I would have said that this would be over with by then and we are going. Today, I am less sure as the infection rate continues to climb in Europe and North America and restrictions keep getting extended. The latest at my office is that the two weeks that were supposed to end on Friday - it is more likely that we will NOT reopen the office before April 30. With a lot of events cancelled worldwide until June and some beyond I am thinking it's more likely now that our July cruise will join the ever growing list of cancellations. Even if it goes ahead will one actually want to sail with few if any ports and nothing to do? Will Europe be sufficiently open to receive vacationers? I can tell you one thing - I physically and mentally cannot wait to rebook until mid 2021 even if it is the right thing to do. I may have to find myself doing something closer to home late this year as I really need a break. That will curtail a return to cruising until 2022 unless I decide to throw caution to the wind and spend even more money I should not be spending. Disappointing but totally understand the need to stay healthy. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Bramcruiser

[ontheweb]

13 hours ago, Bramcruiser said:

We have a big European vacation with a cruise as part of it scheduled for July. If you asked me a month ago I would have said that this would be over with by then and we are going. Today, I am less sure as the infection rate continues to climb in Europe and North America and restrictions keep getting extended. The latest at my office is that the two weeks that were supposed to end on Friday - it is more likely that we will NOT reopen the office before April 30. With a lot of events cancelled worldwide until June and some beyond I am thinking it's more likely now that our July cruise will join the ever growing list of cancellations. Even if it goes ahead will one actually want to sail with few if any ports and nothing to do? Will Europe be sufficiently open to receive vacationers? I can tell you one thing - I physically and mentally cannot wait to rebook until mid 2021 even if it is the right thing to do. I may have to find myself doing something closer to home late this year as I really need a break. That will curtail a return to cruising until 2022 unless I decide to throw caution to the wind and spend even more money I should not be spending. Disappointing but totally understand the need to stay healthy. 

There are closings in Europe even after July. For instance Edinburgh, Scotland has cancelled the Military Tattoo and the Fringe Festival, both events scheduled for August.

[HappyInVan]

Long way to go. The USA is the main customer base for the big cruise companies. but ...

 

"Some 35% of all coronavirus tests administered in New York and New Jersey have been positive, indicating a serious outbreak in both states, White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Deborah Birx said Thursday...."

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/white-house-says-coronavirus-hot-spots-ny-and-nj-see-35percent-of-tests-come-back-positive.html

 

 

[DFD1]

Sorry to hear about the Edinburgh Tattoo and Festival. That's quite a party. Great memories.

[Adoptionmsw]

Long way to go. The USA is the main customer base for the big cruise companies. but ...
 
"Some 35% of all coronavirus tests administered in New York and New Jersey have been positive, indicating a serious outbreak in both states, White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Deborah Birx said Thursday...."
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/white-house-says-coronavirus-hot-spots-ny-and-nj-see-35percent-of-tests-come-back-positive.html
 
 

I’m surprised the percentage of positive tests is that low in NJ. We are so short of test kits, a person has to be pretty sick and have a doctors prescription to be eligible to get in line at a drive through test center.


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[DFD1]

I think whether or not you cancel a future cruise depends on whether or not you can afford to lose the money.

 

Personally, I would not leave any significant cash in the hands of any cruise line right now. Things are too uncertain. There may not even be a HAL in a year or two.

 

In my opinion this virus is going to be with us until someone finds something that will kill it before it attacks you....same as the Salk vaccine. Until that happens, I'd keep my money in my pocket....and if HAL was holding any of it, I'd try and get it back ASAP.

 

IMO

[HappyInVan]

Here's a look at the province of British Columbia in Canada...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_British_Columbia

 

The chart below looks good. Yes, the number of cumulative cases (red line) continue to climb. However, the number of confirmed new cases remains constant at about 50 per day. 

 

More important, the number of active cases (total cases minus recoveries) has stabilized (thin pink line) since late March. The growth in hospitalizations also seem to be leveling off. Currently 146 in hospital, with 64 in ICU.

 

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020EMBC0021-000631

 

As the medical system is not stressed, the death rate remains low. See the black line in the chart below. Currently 35 dead. Compares well with our neighbor to the south.

 

The lesson learned here is that you can't do enough testing (even in this province). BC built its capacity to 3,500 per day (March 26), but it was not enough.

 

On March 14, BC changed its testing strategy to focus on health care workers, care homes and clusters.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/shifting-testing-strategy-bc-1.5498241

 

 

One corollary is the need to test vulnerable populations early. Twenty four of B.C.’s 35 COVID-19 deaths were residents of care homes. One outbreak at the Lynn Valley Care Centre killed at least 11 and infected over 60. 

 

South Korea is the champion. A total of 450K tests to identify 10k positives. That's 45 tests per infection. Currently, they're conducting 100 tests per positive case.

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

 

 

The second lesson is that testing alone is not enough. Social distancing and restrictions are necessary to halt the growth in new cases. A surge in cases could overwhelm your testing capacity. In the UK (slow on social restrictions), their tests average only 4 per confirmed case. Best case scenario 20k dead.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

 

 

Today, South Korea continues to see a trickle of new cases in peripheral areas like Inchon. They didn't quarantine Daegu as was done in Wuhan/Hubei. This trickle could continue for a long time as people in low-infection areas become careless/complacent.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea

 

 

The final factor is the education of the general public. The counter measures buy time to educate the public about infection hygiene and discipline. Once the social restrictions are eased, would there be new outbreaks?

 

So, Happy Cruisers, apply this framework to your favorite destinations. When would they be ready for tourists?

[HappyInVan]

oops. Forgot to load this chart of BC epidemic...