what are the chances on a june ncl cruise ?

[seaman11]

46 minutes ago, kelib said:

First I apologize if this has come up since I have not read over 100 posts.

I see people talking about the Florida ports opening, but where would they go other than a private island IF the Bahamas would allow it.

i can’t see any of these small islands with small medical outlets allowing a ship with a few thousand people from the US being allowed to port.

I realize that many of these ports are in real need of money but it would only take one infected ship that could put their medical resources in a tail spin. 

probably would start with private island and bahamas and then any where they need the tourist dollars bad enough. 

[seaman11]

5 hours ago, Mrdodgy said:

USA maybe but there will be no European cruises this year. 

 

I can assure you UK ports will not accept any cruises, Italy and Spain will remain closed. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to realise that we in Europe do not want the large cruise ships and I can see  ports being blockaded. 

 

As for 2022 - miles out if it got to that here would be no industry left!!!

 

NCL price down another 4.96% - Take it form me the Market knows there is an extension to no sail  coming. If they thought otherwise they would be cruising price would stabilise  it is in  decline. I am sorry but 40 years in the business and financial world leads to no other conclusion

 

 

 

well i agree, uk , canada , those places will take some time.  how long i dont know,  im only speaking about southern us ports.  ,  when you said no cruising till 2021, it implied everywhere. 

[Mrdodgy]

12 hours ago, seaman11 said:

well i agree, uk , canada , those places will take some time.  how long i dont know,  im only speaking about southern us ports.  ,  when you said no cruising till 2021, it implied everywhere. 

Actually I think August 2020 is most likely  _ NCL press statement due out soon  I never said 2021 I agree that is too far,

 

Spain and Italy will be no go so no Europe this season but US August 2020 if they can crew the ships, The issue albeit subtle is that the cruise lines rely on moving staff around which will no not be possible and they are stuck in homeland.  

[hftmrock]

14 hours ago, seaman11 said:

probably would start with private island and bahamas and then any where they need the tourist dollars bad enough. 

interesting article about their opinion of when cruises will start back up and they do mention the bahamas

 

https://thepointsguy.com/guide/when-will-cruising-resume/

 

'Some major cruise destinations from the Bahamas to the South Pacific have been notably strict with their entry requirements since the coronavirus crisis began. They may be slow to open back up. Unlike the U.S., the Bahamas hasn’t even allowed its own citizens to return to the country during the crisis.'

[mking8288]

US-CDC Director has warned that a 2nd. wave could be worst than the first, combined with the seasonal flu.  If true, we have every reason to be concerned and worried.  Not the kind of news that some of us wanted to read/hear/listen to ...    

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/cdc-director-warns-second-wave-of-coronavirus-this-winter-will-likely-be-worse/

 

I would keep a close watch for the southern hemisphere as in down under, Australia and South America for Covid-19 spiking and spreading by this June.  If and should that happen, no countries and cruises will be sailing as ship crews are still grounded & homebound, most of them had been repatriated and/or underway via cruiseline's own fleet of ships.  

 

Current findings based on anti-body testing suggested the infection is perhaps, more widespread than we've been told and the testing regiments itself is faulty, sometimes resulted in false negative (namely, the Abbott Lab's rapid testing - depending on how it was done, now being corrected) 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/abbott-laboratories-coronavirus-rapid-test/index.html

 

Against the odds and the backdrops, not to mention other infections & deaths not yet tabulated in nursing, veterans, group & long-term care facilities - I say, good luck cruising in June or even July of 2020.  

[PortFees45]

Good luck cruising in 2020 period. 

[seaman11]

4 hours ago, Mrdodgy said:

Actually I think August 2020 is most likely  _ NCL press statement due out soon  I never said 2021 I agree that is too far,

 

Spain and Italy will be no go so no Europe this season but US August 2020 if they can crew the ships, The issue albeit subtle is that the cruise lines rely on moving staff around which will no not be possible and they are stuck in homeland.  

oh ok , thought you said 2021, sorry,.   crew isnt an issue imo. many are stuck on ships, if they limit pax they will only need half the crews, and the airports are still up and running.  also when they restart we are only talking about a couple of ships to start out , not the whole fleet. 

[Mrdodgy]

1 minute ago, seaman11 said:

oh ok , thought you said 2021, sorry,.   crew isnt an issue imo. many are stuck on ships, if they limit pax they will only need half the crews, and the airports are still up and running.  also when they restart we are only talking about a couple of ships to start out , not the whole fleet. 

This is now an interesting discussion . The issue is that most of the crew on board are over their contracts and want to get t home. My information is as I say from friends on the ships. Yes I agree with you only a few ships but they are not allowed to move crew from one ship to another so that a problem for NCL - I promise you a massive issue with crew who are desperate to get home, 

 

So we agree but the crew logistics are more serious than you realise. They will als o need enhanced medical facilities and doctors 

[seaman11]

7 minutes ago, Mrdodgy said:

This is now an interesting discussion . The issue is that most of the crew on board are over their contracts and want to get t home. My information is as I say from friends on the ships. Yes I agree with you only a few ships but they are not allowed to move crew from one ship to another so that a problem for NCL - I promise you a massive issue with crew who are desperate to get home, 

 

So we agree but the crew logistics are more serious than you realise. They will als o need enhanced medical facilities and doctors 

could be, but i really dont see it an issue as often times crews contracts are renewed.  so they could choose to stay on board a few more months then go home. , remember if ships can go than that means the ports and airports and such will be open. 

Edited April 22, 2020 by seaman11

[seaman11]

1 hour ago, PortFees45 said:

Good luck cruising in 2020 period. 

norwegian had only 3 reported cases , i think we will be ok  by the time they start sailing again. 

[Mrdodgy]

12 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

could be, but i really dont see it an issue as often times crews contracts are renewed.  so they could choose to stay on board a few more months then go home. , remember if ships can go than that means the ports are airports and such will be open. 

The issue is that they are already over the maximum contract length!  The information I have is relevant and reliable form crew.

 

For instance 85% of crew on one ship are over the end of the contract and insist they want to go home. NCL have a particular issue as the crewing model relies on moving crew around ships to fill gaps. you want to cruise I get it , but you have to be realistic its not  just ports being open.

 

And I can also tell you a lot of crew are scared to travel back - indeed one of our friends from the Philippines has told us that he knows of loads of crew who are refusing new contracts at this time. All cruise lines are going to have issues not just NCL. 

 

Its not about US airports its their home countries. BA have just cancelled flights until 31 May 2020 

 

Your optimism is infectious  - but I sadly think will in the end be found wrong  lets see - one of us is right and it could of course be you!! 

Edited April 22, 2020 by Mrdodgy

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

   Oktoberfest was just canceled.

   Europe has no interest in cruise ships & I doubt any other destinations will.

   The CDC order isn't going anywhere, and the conditions won't change in July ...it will just get extended. CCL's honcho has already said they're not operating until social distancing isn't necessary. 

   And this isn't an extremist take on the business prospects for the cruise lines:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/21/5-reasons-cruise-line-stocks-will-never-bounce-bac.aspx

    BUT ... if people still continue believing they'll sail this summer or fall, then at this point all we can say is "OK, you keep believing that."         

[Newleno]

19 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

   Oktoberfest was just canceled.

   Europe has no interest in cruise ships & I doubt any other destinations will.

   The CDC order isn't going anywhere, and the conditions won't change in July ...it will just get extended. CCL's honcho has already said they're not operating until social distancing isn't necessary. 

   And this isn't an extremist take on the business prospects for the cruise lines:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/21/5-reasons-cruise-line-stocks-will-never-bounce-bac.aspx

    BUT ... if people still continue believing they'll sail this summer or fall, then at this point all we can say is "OK, you keep believing that."         

I once was on a flight it got cancelled but then while we were trying to figure everything out for about 3 hours it got reinstated.  Just like with the Wuhan, you got to have many contingency plans, plan for the worst while hoping for the best and projecting a confidence to help others that are fearful.  It will help to get us through this.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

If it brings you happiness to believe all of that, enjoy.

 

I view most of the "optimism" on CC to be untethered to fact. And that's all fine, but it's easy to foresee the flood of posts in July from people whose summer cruises were just canceled (and whose refunds won't arrive til Thanksgiving, maybe). Some will be saying "why didn't anyone warn us?" 

[mking8288]

1 hour ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

If it brings you happiness to believe all of that, enjoy ... most of the "optimism" on CC to be untethered to fact. And that's all fine, but ...  Some will be saying "why didn't anyone warn us?" 

 

I dunno about you, cannot find some of the earlier warning posts, but fortunately, I screenshot & have a permanent, digital record on my unlimited lifetime cloud server on some of the discussions.  Not a complaint ... just a matter of facts. My opinions, of course. 

 

Back on topic: perhaps, the newest US-CDC warning issued by the director today about a 2nd wave should be grounds to generate another alarm, all hands.  The worst is yet to come.  As for Georgia's re-opening, it's not cruise related directly - except for anyone flying thru ATL as it is Delta's hub, employer for someone in the extended family & trust me, they wanted things to go back to normal ... the new normal, as much as anyone else. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by mking8288

[seaman11]

3 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

   Oktoberfest was just canceled.

   Europe has no interest in cruise ships & I doubt any other destinations will.

   The CDC order isn't going anywhere, and the conditions won't change in July ...it will just get extended. CCL's honcho has already said they're not operating until social distancing isn't necessary. 

   And this isn't an extremist take on the business prospects for the cruise lines:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/21/5-reasons-cruise-line-stocks-will-never-bounce-bac.aspx

    BUT ... if people still continue believing they'll sail this summer or fall, then at this point all we can say is "OK, you keep believing that."         

places like texas ga and florida are already opening things up and you think 3 month from now the ports will be closed down there?

[hftmrock]

47 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

places like texas ga and florida are already opening things up and you think 3 month from now the ports will be closed down there?

in a word......absolutely

[mugtech]

1 hour ago, seaman11 said:

places like texas ga and florida are already opening things up and you think 3 month from now the ports will be closed down there?

President said GA is wrong for doing this.  Perhaps you could sail out of Savannah.

[Jobeth66]

12 hours ago, seaman11 said:

places like texas ga and florida are already opening things up and you think 3 month from now the ports will be closed down there?

 

Until/unless the cruise lines meet or exceed the CDC requirements for cruises to resume, yep.

[seaman11]

4 hours ago, Jobeth66 said:

 

Until/unless the cruise lines meet or exceed the CDC requirements for cruises to resume, yep.

but in 3 months time from now the 100 days would be up anyway.,  but i think depending on how the covid is going, then i think there is a good chance they recend it by the end of june. 

[hftmrock]

42 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

but in 3 months time from now the 100 days would be up anyway.,  but i think depending on how the covid is going, then i think there is a good chance they recend it by the end of june. 

as fast as you think they can rescind it by the end of June... its just as likely that they extend it another 50+ days

[seaman11]

6 minutes ago, hftmrock said:

as fast as you think they can rescind it by the end of June... its just as likely that they extend it another 50+ days

well yes they could , but with things opening up , and covid flattening out that wouldnt be likelyand they are not predicting cases to rise  , unless it got worse in the next month  i cant see it extended . 

[hftmrock]

3 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

well yes they could , but with things opening up , and covid flattening out that wouldnt be likelyand they are not predicting cases to rise  , unless it got worse in the next month  i cant see it extended . 

you sorta hit the nail on the head... things are opening up .... TOO EARLY... there will be a rebound of the virus and it will spike again causing it to get worse , causing the CDC to extend... a rebound is going to happen if things continue to reopen too early

 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by hftmrock

[seaman11]

13 minutes ago, hftmrock said:

you sorta hit the nail on the head... things are opening up .... TOO EARLY... there will be a rebound of the virus and it will spike again causing it to get worse , causing the CDC to extend... a rebound is going to happen if things continue to reopen too early

 

 

it might ,  it may seem i want things to open eaerly , but i dont ., i want things shut till middle end of may , so we can open up for good . i dont agree with the protests and things opening now , 

[Newleno]

13 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

it might ,  it may seem i want things to open eaerly , but i dont ., i want things shut till middle end of may , so we can open up for good . i dont agree with the protests and things opening now , 

Protesting is unAmerican, all hands on deck