SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[RetiredandTravel]

1 hour ago, highplanesdrifters said:

It's not the September slide I'm worried about.  It's the big slide.  Credit card and car loan default just hit 10 year highs.

 

From 'The Sun Also Rises':

How did you go bankrupt?

Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

 

 

and how about Uncle Sam?  Looks like next weeks auction is almost 300 billioney.  That's a weekly auction.

 

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/

 

Put/Calls get a little lofty

 

https://www.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/daily/

 

 

 

 

[RetiredandTravel]

and these folks.

 

https://news.wttw.com/2023/07/05/chicago-s-pension-debt-continues-rise-increasing-174-billion-2022-354-billion-city

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2021/01/26/of-americas-biggest-cities-new-york-city-is-in-the-worst-fiscal-health/?sh=461cee8416f8

 

[highplanesdrifters]

3 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

 

 

and how about Uncle Sam?  Looks like next weeks auction is almost 300 billioney.  That's a weekly auction.

 

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/

 

Put/Calls get a little lofty

 

https://www.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/daily/

 

 

 

 

That's a whole lotta debt to service at these levels. 

 

As mentioned before my technicals point to 4748-4831. I'm starting to question whether we get a one last grasp rally.  That 5% is awfully attractive. Do I risk it for a quick 6% rally?

 

3 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

and these folks.

 

https://news.wttw.com/2023/07/05/chicago-s-pension-debt-continues-rise-increasing-174-billion-2022-354-billion-city

I grew up in Chicago and we still have a condo downtown.  The pension is the least of the problems. 

[TLCOhio]

On 9/7/2023 at 12:34 PM, RetiredandTravel said:

and how about Uncle Sam?  Looks like next weeks auction is almost 300 billioney.  That's a weekly auction.  Put/Calls get a little lofty

 

Appreciate the follow-ups from R&T and highplanesdrifters.  My "Financial Crystal Ball" is still cloudy and confused.  And for the three major cruise stocks during the most recent four trading days, there is only a one-word summary.  It's:

 

ROCKY!!!  

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below are their charts for these three companies.  Up and down, somewhat violently seems a reasonable summary!!  Right or wrong?

 

What for this coming week?  What is driving these dramatic shifts?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their charts for the past week on the three major cruise companies, plus the S&P 500 chart for comparison purposes as to the overall market.  As shown, the general stock market was down during the past five trading days.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

[RetiredandTravel]

On 9/8/2023 at 4:58 PM, TLCOhio said:

 

 My "Financial Crystal Ball" is still cloudy and confused.  

 

ROCKY!!!  

 

 

Same here.  Currently my biggest concern is increasing oil prices.  Possibly not good for stocks, bonds or cruise stocks.

 

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by RetiredandTravel

[highplanesdrifters]

2 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

 

Same here.  Currently my biggest concern is increasing oil prices.  Possibly not good for stocks, bonds or cruise stocks.

 

 

Even if I think I have a handle on the market, I know enough to know that "cloudy and confused" is more accurate. 😂

 

Higher oil, agree!  That and high interest rates were the main triggers last time.

 

There I go again, thinking I know something.

[TLCOhio]

5 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Currently my biggest concern is increasing oil prices.  Possibly not good for stocks, bonds or cruise stocks.

 

YES, agree as to the solid concerns and follow-ups about rising oil prices impacting the cruise lines.  And, being negative as to the overall, world-wide economy.  Consumers feel these "hits" and higher costs.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal a few days ago, they had this headline: “Oil Jumps After Saudi Arabia and Russia Extend Production Cuts” with these highlights: “Crude oil prices popped Tuesday morning after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they're extending voluntary oil production cuts through the end of the year.   Futures of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. oil benchmark, were up about 1% at $86.70, after earlier jumping more than 2% to $87.50 a barrel, their highest level of the year.
Saudi Arabia's one million barrel a day cut, which amounts to roughly 10% of the kingdom's usual production, began in July. It accounts for more than a third of the total cuts made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies since last fall as part of an effort to boost petroleum prices.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-09-05-2023/card/saudi-arabia-extends-production-cuts-oil-jumps-SKkm2HMi4pYNhRnhOo6K?page=1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 248,737 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1172051-livesilver-cloud-norway-coastfjords-july-1-16-reports/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below is their latest chart covering the most recent three months as to how oil prices have been moving  up, UP!!:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

[RetiredandTravel]

On 9/10/2023 at 11:58 AM, highplanesdrifters said:

Even if I think I have a handle on the market, I know enough to know that "cloudy and confused" is more accurate. 😂

 

Higher oil, agree!  That and high interest rates were the main triggers last time.

 

There I go again, thinking I know something.

 

This is why I don't trade any more.  My years of experience have been negated by my years of seeing things go wrong.  Now a big picture guy.  🤠

 

I'm certainly not an expert on oil markets but I do know supply and demand is very important and from the news reports I'm guessing the Saudi's aren't going to make any efforts to help out #46.  

 

 

[RetiredandTravel]

Todays WSJ

 

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/options-individual-investors-risk-gambling-a97bee1a?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

[highplanesdrifters]

1 hour ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Todays WSJ

 

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/options-individual-investors-risk-gambling-a97bee1a?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

I read that yesterday and thought of you. Wow, 50% of the volume. 

Those Robinhood Gamblers are just to lazy to do any market research work.  Covered calls for example.  Great way to add some Alpha.  Heck, just do the research on which funds use the strategy and let them do the daily work.

[TLCOhio]

On 9/13/2023 at 9:57 AM, highplanesdrifters said:

I read that yesterday and thought of you. Wow, 50% of the volume.  Those Robinhood Gamblers are just to lazy to do any market research work.  Covered calls for example.  Great way to add some Alpha.  Heck, just do the research on which funds use the strategy and let them do the daily work.

 

Appreciate these various comments and follow-ups.  YES, there are many crazy things being done by so-called "investors" who are playing around with and at the Wall Street "CASINO".  Too much shallow "gambling" by some "players" who think they are so smart????

 

From MSN News and Barrons today this morning, they had this headline: “Carnival and Norwegian Stocks Are Now a Buy, Analyst Says. The Pandemic Ache Is Over.” with these highlights: “Shares of Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line rose Thursday after an analyst from Redburn Atlantic upgraded shares of the cruise lines saying that pandemic woes have come to an end.  Analyst Alex Brignall upgraded shares of Carnival and Norwegian to Buy from Neutral with price targets of $23 and $25, respectively. Inflation has been rising, interest rates are high and recession concerns loom. Consumer sentiment has taken a hit as shoppers see the hit to their wallets. But that hasn’t stopped people from going on vacation. The pent-up desire to travel following Covid-19 lockdowns has been driving tourism demand.”

 

This analyst believes that these cruise lines are "well-positioned against risks" such as inflation and high interest rates.  He also claims these lines are paying down their major debts and/or able to re-finance at lower interest rates.  

 

Not sure I believe it "all" with this total optimism.  What about rising oil prices?  Am I too untrusting and/or doubtful?  How do you bet and wager your money?

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/carnival-and-norwegian-stocks-are-now-a-buy-analyst-says-the-pandemic-ache-is-over/ar-AA1gId91

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 245,333 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1896175-solstice-live-australianzhawaii-many-pix’s-jan-20-feb-3/

Edited September 14, 2023 by TLCOhio

[TLCOhio]

On 9/12/2023 at 8:55 AM, RetiredandTravel said:

This is why I don't trade any more.  My years of experience have been negated by my years of seeing things go wrong.  Now a big picture guy.  I'm certainly not an expert on oil markets but I do know supply and demand is very important and from the news reports I'm guessing the Saudi's aren't going to make any efforts to help out #46.  

 

YES, R&T, it is great to be a "big picture guy".  Wonderful comments and follow-ups.  Is it safer that way??   When the Saudi's feel mis-treated and attacked, they will respond accordingly.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal in the middle of this morning, they had this headline: “Fuel Prices Are Soaring. Who Is Feeling the Pinch?" with this sub-headline:  "Production cuts by OPEC and its allies push crude oil to 10-month highs.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “Diesel, jet and marine fuel prices are soaring, pressuring the construction companies, transportation businesses and farmers that are the biggest users. Behind the rise: production cuts made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, which have propelled crude prices to 10-month highs and boosted the premiums refiners can charge for making the heavy fuels that power trucks, planes and ships.”

 

Are the cruise line CEO's and CFO's starting to feel the "pain" down in the Miami areas where they are located and trying to juggle their financial books?  See the WSJ chart below: 

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/fuel-prices-are-soaring-who-is-feeling-the-pinch-b51db978?page=1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio 

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 245,333 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1896175-solstice-live-australianzhawaii-many-pix’s-jan-20-feb-3

[TLCOhio]

From one of the Wall Street Journal's financial news website this morning, they had this headline: “A Gray Wave Of Vacations Will Lift Cruise Lines 40% Or More” with these highlights: “Redburn Atlantic upgraded its ratings and price targets for Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings late Thursday. The hefty target hikes suggest smooth sailing ahead for cruise lines, as a demographic surge supercharges their post-pandemic recovery.”

 

Here are more details and background from this report: "Analyst Alex Brignall noted strong leisure travel demand is driving the improved pricing outlook for the industry after Covid-19 wiped out about 80% of their pre-pandemic market capitalization.  'Today, the sector has exited intensive care, and the fundamental investment case, of strong secular growth and margin opportunity, is clear,' Brignall wrote. He expects baby boomers and retirees to fuel much of the upcoming demand.  'The cruise industry, with an average guest age of almost 50, will enjoy a turbocharged version of this demand strength as the U.S. over-65 population is set to grow at more than 2% per year until 2030, four times the overall population growth of the U.S.,' he wrote."

 

Interesting background that us, as "Seasoned Citizens", are a major part of the healthy future economic path forward for the cruise lines.  Reactions??

 

Full story at:

https://www.investors.com/news/a-gray-wave-of-vacations-will-lift-cruise-lines-40-analyst-says/?src=A00619&refcode=aflMarketWatch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 106,716 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below are the charts for Royal Caribbean and their two main competitors during the most recent five trading days.  

 

Not exactly a calm, easy week.  Right?  Things bounced up, but then dropped off later on Thursday and today.  Wednesday was not a good trading day, either.

 

Observations, guesses and predictions for next week?

 

Below is the chart for the overall S&P 500 during this past week.  This looks "ugly", too!!  Right?  As is historic, September has earned a reputation for being a month that is not always calm and positive for those who play the stock market. 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 72,701 views:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2076101-live-amazon-river-caribbean-many-pix’s-terryohio/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their charts for the past week covering the three major cruise companies.  Do these show some pretty "violent" swings during this week??:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

[crusinbanjo]

If the S&P and the Dow Jones averages go down enough, I’ll be a buyer, but this week’s volatility is just that, up today, down tomorrow 

[highplanesdrifters]

On 9/15/2023 at 4:40 PM, crusinbanjo said:

If the S&P and the Dow Jones averages go down enough, I’ll be a buyer, but this week’s volatility is just that, up today, down tomorrow 

 

How low can we go?

 

 

 

 

[Whinenowine]

I still don't understand why the cruise lines haven't taken advantage of their higher stock prices by issuing convertible bonds.  They can use those proceeds to refi their pandemic debt which carries double digit coupons. 

[crusinbanjo]

22 minutes ago, Whinenowine said:

I still don't understand why the cruise lines haven't taken advantage of their higher stock prices by issuing convertible bonds.  They can use those proceeds to refi their pandemic debt which carries double digit coupons. 

They would still need to pay a coupon rate comparable to market rates in order to sell the bonds.  I suspect the rates today might be higher than what they are paying on older bonds, but admittedly, I’m not an expert in cruise line finance.

[TLCOhio]

On 9/18/2023 at 7:39 AM, Whinenowine said:

I still don't understand why the cruise lines haven't taken advantage of their higher stock prices by issuing convertible bonds.  They can use those proceeds to refi their pandemic debt which carries double digit coupons. 

 

Appreciate all of these fun and interesting comments and follow-ups from Mr. Banjo, highplanesdrifters and Whinenowine.  Good question for "How Low Can We Go?"!!

 

From the Wall Street Journal-related financial news website this morning, they had this headline: “Carnival’s stock climbs after long-time bear says stop selling" with this sub-headline:  "Analyst Patrick Scholes upgrades Carnival and Royal Caribbean given strong bookings and after stocks have ‘cooled off."

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “Shares of Carnival Corp. surged Tuesday after a longtime bear, Truist analyst Patrick Scholes, upgraded the cruise operator and the overall cruise sector, citing strong forward booking trends and after the recent pullback in price has improved valuations.  He said the European is showing the greatest degree of strength for 2024, and Carnival has the greatest exposure to that market. He stopped short of being bullish, however, given concerns of competition coming from privately held MSC Cruises.  He also boosted his rating on fellow cruise operator Royal Caribbean to buy after being at hold for at least the past three years.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/carnivals-stock-climbs-after-long-time-bear-says-stop-selling-f8dc8000

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Visuals, details from two visits in a city and nearby with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 58,336 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Disney to Invest $60 Billion in Theme Parks, Cruises Over Next Decade" with this sub-headline:  "Company says it would expand its parks and cruise line capacities.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “Disney said it would give priority to spending on projects that could generate strong returns, including for its U.S. and international parks and cruises.  Shares of Disney fell 2.8% on Tuesday morning.  The company plans to roll out more cruise ships and establish a new home port in Singapore.”

 

Speaking of "more competition", this signals added consumer options and travel potentials.  While Disney and Silversea do not compete directly that much for many customers, it is interesting to see how these investments impact the overall cruise market and traveler offerings.  The Disney move to Singapore says the Asian markets continues to be a future growth area.  Other reactions and questions?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/business/media/disney-to-invest-60-billion-in-theme-parks-cruises-over-next-decade-6fc87426?mod=hp_lead_pos4

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 54,814 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

[highplanesdrifters]

Uh Oh

 

Rate hikes will have trouble solving this.  

 

 

Prices in LA.

 

 

 

[TLCOhio]

12 minutes ago, highplanesdrifters said:

Uh Oh.   Rate hikes will have trouble solving this.  Prices in LA.

 

YES, these soaring oil prices are creating serious challenges.  Sure glad that I am not a cruise company CEO or CFO to have to be juggling these financial issues.  How will this impact consumers and those considering future cruise bookings?  WOW, in California, those gas prices are really, really HIGH!!!

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “The Fed’s Next Challenge: $100 Oil" with this sub-headline:  "Saudi output cuts and record demand have pushed crude prices 26% higher this quarter.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “An almost uninterrupted rise in oil prices has pushed benchmark Brent crude close to $100 a barrel, posing a new challenge for central banks in their battle against inflation.  The rise is a victory for Saudi Arabia, which sought to bolster prices to fund a planned transformation of its oil-dependent economy. Russia, which depends on energy income to finance its war on Ukraine and joined Riyadh in slashing supplies, is another winner.   Record levels of oil demand—fueled by unexpected economic strength—have outstripped production.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/the-feds-next-challenge-100-oil-4388e3fc?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Various visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 52,487 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

[Whinenowine]

On 9/18/2023 at 8:05 AM, crusinbanjo said:

They would still need to pay a coupon rate comparable to market rates in order to sell the bonds.  I suspect the rates today might be higher than what they are paying on older bonds, but admittedly, I’m not an expert in cruise line finance.

Convertible bond coupons are much lower than plan vanilla corporate bonds because of the equity upside kicker.  Not an expert at all, but they might pay a coupon of, say, 5% and take out debt with coupons of 10-12%.  You'd dilute the equity base, but in a way where everyone wins to some extent.

[RetiredandTravel]

9 hours ago, Whinenowine said:

Convertible bond coupons are much lower than plan vanilla corporate bonds because of the equity upside kicker.  Not an expert at all, but they might pay a coupon of, say, 5% and take out debt with coupons of 10-12%.  You'd dilute the equity base, but in a way where everyone wins to some extent.

 

How would they take out the debt with 10-12% coupon?  How is diluting the stock a win for existing share holders?

 

 

On 8/27/2023 at 7:51 AM, RetiredandTravel said:

 

 

  I would like to see the two year hold the recent ~5.10 high (~5.16 in 2006) otherwise the next recent high is ~6.50 in 2000.  I would think that would be a negative for the stock market but it sure wasn't in 1/2000.  The ten year is also on what I view a key resistance of 4.33, the next high level being 5.31 in 2007.  The enormous supply of Treasuries isn't helping (duh). 

 

 

 

I'm wondering how impactful hedge funds are in recent US Treasury yield movements.

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-economists-sound-alarm-hedge-funds-gaming-us-treasuries-2023-09-13/

 

https://www.ft.com/content/b51edf3e-3d2b-4963-9ae7-92bc69992e24

 

 

The Oracle of Columbus strikes again

 

On 8/29/2023 at 10:32 AM, TLCOhio said:

 

 

From Forbes business magazine yesterday, they had this headline: “Investor Warning: September Is The S&P 500’s Worst Performing Month” with these highlights: “While August was a shaky month for investors, it could just be a warmup for September. Traditionally, that ninth month, which is just a few days away, has been the very worst month in which to invest in stocks, according to a recent data analysis from New York-based analytics company CFRA.  'We remind investors to prepare for the possibility of disappointing results for boht the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the month ahead,' the report states.  On average since 1945, the S&P 500 falls 56% of the time in September, making it the only month which is more likely to see a drop than an advance of any kind, CFRA research states. The average S&P 500 return is minus 0.73%, the worst of any month.”

 

Got your investment "seat belt" fastened?  Ready for a rocky ride??

 

Full story at:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2023/08/28/investor-warning-september-is-the-sp-500s-worst-performing-month/?sh=560cc89e377f

 

 

HPD that oil chart looks pretty similar to the 10 year note.  (except this AM)

 

 

[RetiredandTravel]

No FT subscription? no problem.  I wish CC gave more time to edit.

 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/recent-developments-in-hedge-funds-treasury-futures-and-repo-positions-20230830.html