SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[TLCOhio]

From CNBC, the cable news financial network, on Monday, they had this headline: “Cruise prices are way up as operators meet surging travel demand” with these highlights: “Ticket prices for cruises are surging as operators say they’re meeting higher demand for post-pandemic vacations.  Cruise operators such as Carnival and Royal Caribbean said they’re considering raising prices even more to close the gap between the price of cruise vacations and land-based vacation alternatives.   Some industry watchers say the price surges show no signs of slowing.”

 

Here is more: "According to data from Cruise Critic, a cruise review site owned by Tripadvisor, the average price of a five-night cruise in the Caribbean for December of this year is $736, roughly 37% higher than the average price a year earlier. Compared to 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic decimated the cruising industry, December ticket prices are up 43%.   Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein said during a call with Wall Street analysts at the end of September that the company’s third-quarter net revenue per passenger per day reached a record high."

 

Full story at:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/09/cruise-prices-rise-as-operators-meet-surging-travel-demand.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 51,487 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

[Whinenowine]

2 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

From CNBC, the cable news financial network, on Monday, they had this headline: “Cruise prices are way up as operators meet surging travel demand” with these highlights: “Ticket prices for cruises are surging as operators say they’re meeting higher demand for post-pandemic vacations.  Cruise operators such as Carnival and Royal Caribbean said they’re considering raising prices even more to close the gap between the price of cruise vacations and land-based vacation alternatives.   Some industry watchers say the price surges show no signs of slowing.”

 

Here is more: "According to data from Cruise Critic, a cruise review site owned by Tripadvisor, the average price of a five-night cruise in the Caribbean for December of this year is $736, roughly 37% higher than the average price a year earlier. Compared to 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic decimated the cruising industry, December ticket prices are up 43%.   Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein said during a call with Wall Street analysts at the end of September that the company’s third-quarter net revenue per passenger per day reached a record high."

 

I hate being a pessimist, but I really have a hard time seeing this persist.  Pricing has increased too much too quickly and if there is any break in consumer demand (which I think there will be next year), it'll release the cracks in the foundation of the cruise lines (and to a lesser extent airlines and hotels).

[TLCOhio]

On 10/11/2023 at 3:45 PM, Whinenowine said:

I hate being a pessimist, but I really have a hard time seeing this persist.  Pricing has increased too much too quickly and if there is any break in consumer demand (which I think there will be next year), it'll release the cracks in the foundation of the cruise lines (and to a lesser extent airlines and hotels).

 

For our New Jersey friend, there is no reason to worry about being "pessimistic".  It's called "realism"!!  Yes, things are challenged and confused right now.  For many different reasons.  

 

Need tangible evidence??

 

From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, below are the stock charts for this past week.  How to summarize?  Rocky?  Negative?  Downhill?

 

Correct for all three labels.  See below.  For Royal Caribbean, at late morning Tuesday, they were over $91 a share.  Then, it was down, DOWN, DOWN, to around $86 Friday afternoon.  Many future questions as to oil prices, consumer confidence, Middle East cruises being scrubbed, etc.  

 

Any certain predictions coming from your Crystal Ball?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 33,963 views.  Many pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their late Friday afternoon charts for the three major cruise lines during the most recent five days of trading.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

[Whinenowine]

14 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 

For our New Jersey friend, there is no reason to worry about being "pessimistic".  It's called "realism"!!  Yes, things are challenged and confused right now.  For many different reasons.  

 

Need tangible evidence??

 

From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, below are the stock charts for this past week.  How to summarize?  Rocky?  Negative?  Downhill?

 

Correct for all three labels.  See below.  For Royal Caribbean, at late morning Tuesday, they were over $91 a share.  Then, it was down, DOWN, DOWN, to around $86 Friday afternoon.  Many future questions as to oil prices, consumer confidence, Middle East cruises being scrubbed, etc.  

 

Any certain predictions coming from your Crystal Ball?

 

If I could predict with certainty I'd be booking Otium/Owner's Suites all day long...alas that's not the case.

 

But in my opinion, tensions in the Middle East are only going up from here; that and increased scansions on Russia mean Oil (and therefore gas) prices will remain elevated into next year.  And the (justifiable) increase in wages across the board will also continue.  To me this adds to the fear that inflation will be persistent, even as the economy slows--which means the Fed will have to keep rates higher, even if it means killing the economy. I think the average consumer is all but tapped out, racking up credit card bills as they continue to consume.  But that too will max out in the coming months, meaning companies like Cruise lines who cater to those folks (RC and Celebrity, not really SS) will feel the pinch.  As will stock prices.  Personally I hope I'm wrong, but these are my fears.

[TLCOhio]

2 hours ago, Whinenowine said:

If I could predict with certainty I'd be booking Otium/Owner's Suites all day long...alas that's not the case.  But in my opinion, tensions in the Middle East are only going up from here; that and increased scansions on Russia mean Oil (and therefore gas) prices will remain elevated into next year.  And the (justifiable) increase in wages across the board will also continue.  To me this adds to the fear that inflation will be persistent, even as the economy slows--which means the Fed will have to keep rates higher, even if it means killing the economy. I think the average consumer is all but tapped out, racking up credit card bills as they continue to consume.  But that too will max out in the coming months, meaning companies like Cruise lines who cater to those folks (RC and Celebrity, not really SS) will feel the pinch.  As will stock prices.  Personally I hope I'm wrong, but these are my fears.

 

Appreciate these great comments and follow-up from our New Jersey neighbor.  Excellent summary for many of the key factors that are facing consumers and cruise lines.  From a friend in eastern Ohio in the grocery business, he can see clearly in recent weeks how inflation and the economy tightening are affecting consumers on a daily basis.  Many people are very challenged!!   You correctly note that the more mainline customers for mass-market Royal Caribbean and Carnival will be most immediately affected versus for the higher-wealth customers sailing on Silversea.    

 

From the New York Times yesterday, they had this headline: “Dimon Warns of ‘Most Dangerous Time’ as Banks Report Big Profits" with this sub-headline: "JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup said that consumers continued to borrow and spend, but their chiefs warned that geopolitical risks were intensifying.”

 

Here are some more of their reporting highlights: “For Mr. Dimon, weighing in on geopolitics isn’t new: He consistently warns of dangers from the war in Ukraine and elsewhere. On Friday, he said he was preparing the nation’s largest bank for a range of scary outcomes, with other risks including high inflation and rising interest rates. But on a call with reporters, he described the conflict in Israel and Gaza as 'the highest and most important thing for the Western world.' ”

 

As an added perspective, consider this added background from this report: " 'The consumer remains quite resilient,' said Mark Mason, Citi’s chief financial officer. Payment rates were edging lower and spending was slowing, but only slightly, he said. Customers were still spending and paying down their card balances more steadily than they had in 2019 before the pandemic."

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/business/jpmorgan-citigroup-wells-fargo-profits.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 32,411 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines during this past week.  

 

Is negative and downward, again, the fairest summary for how Wall Street views their value and future path ahead?

 

As noted in the below S&P 500 chart, we have to be honest and note that this past week was not moving in a positive direction overall for most stocks.  

 

Other reactions, predictions, insights, questions?  Don't be shy!!  Predict where the cruise stocks will be by the end of 2023.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 22,092 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

Here are the three charts for the major cruise lines during this past week as per the Wall Street Journal.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

For the past three months, here is a WSJ chart to reflect the "slide" that has been happening during this most recent period with Royal Caribbean.:

 

Here is a comparison as to how the overall market moved downward during this past week from the Wall Street Journal.:

 

[Stumblefoot]

6 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

For the past three months, here is a WSJ chart to reflect the "slide" that has been happening during this most recent period with Royal Caribbean.:

That is one impressive slide downward.  
 

Should be a safe buy level, but set your stops tight ($76) because she could slide all the way back down below $65.  Limit your losses to 5% or less will always be your least loss and the pathway to big money long term.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Stumblefoot

[TLCOhio]

On 10/21/2023 at 12:21 AM, Stumblefoot said:

That is one impressive slide downward.  Should be a safe buy level, but set your stops tight ($76) because she could slide all the way back down below $65.  Limit your losses to 5% or less will always be your least loss and the pathway to big money long term.

 

Appreciate these great comments and follow-up by Stumblefoot.  You are much above my "pay grade" for understanding "stops" and how best to limit stock losses.  Good or bad, I do not "play the market".  But, enjoy following the movements and trends.  No risks, losses or gains that way.    

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Economy Was Supposed to Slow by Now. Instead It’s Revving Up" with this sub-headline:  "Analysts are raising their year-end forecasts as the Fed ponders whether to increase interest rates again.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “Earlier this year, economists and Federal Reserve officials predicted that the U.S. economy would be sputtering by now as higher interest rates cut into spending and investment.  The opposite is happening.  Recent economic data suggest the economy is accelerating despite higher borrowing costs, the resumption of student-loan payments, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-economy-was-supposed-to-slow-by-now-instead-its-revving-up-3c0f7a2e

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals, Our firsts in these scenic areas!  Now at 20,058 views. Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's and MSN News this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean’s Earnings Were Good. It Could Be the Boost the Stock Needs.” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group‘s earnings comfortably beat Wall Street expectations, while management raised its forecast for annual profit, saying demand for cruises and spending onboard is still strong.  The stock was 2.2% down in early trading, after initially opening higher. As of Wednesday’s close, the shares had fallen 25% since their July peak, in tandem with most of the travel sector, because the summer peak in demand has passed, while fuel prices have climbed.”

 

Earlier this am, the RCL stock was violently down, then bouncing back strongly.  Maybe positive news?  Where are things headed for the rest of the day and week?

 

This report also noted: "Unlike many other travel companies, and airlines in particular, Royal Caribbean provided plenty of reasons for investors to be positive about the months ahead.   The cruise operator’s fuel costs for the third quarter were lower than expected, coming in at $272 million.  Demand for international travel in general, and cruises in particular, is still strong. For the full year, the cruise operator now expects earnings per share of between $6.58 and $6.63, up from a range of $6 to $6.20."

 

This thread is now over 120,000 views.  Appreciate all who have dropped by, made comments, shared information, etc.  It's an uncertain "economic world" with much unknown for the future, including consumer spending and interests.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/royal-caribbean-s-earnings-were-good-it-could-be-the-boost-the-stock-needs/ar-AA1iTnqh

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Early 2020, many visuals and details from New Zealand/South Pacific in going from Auckland to French Polynesia.  This includes Bora Bora, Fiji, NZ experiences, etc:  Live/blog:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2735732-live-terryohio-“new”-regatta-south-pacificnz-pix’s/

[TLCOhio]

How were the three major cruise lines viewed during the past five trading days by the Wall Street experts?  "Violent" is the word coming to my mind.  Need proof?

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below are the stock charts for Royal Caribbean and their two main competitors.  Thursday morning was especially "challenged" for these cruise stocks, but then a "bounce-back", then a Friday slide.  

 

Hard to predict and guess for what happens next?  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Canada 2022/2023: Scenic visuals, details from Canada Maritimes (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Cape Breton Island).  Plus, new from Aug. 2023, exploring historic/charming Quebec City.    Visual/Info Summaries:

www.flickr.com/photos/196555480@N08/albums

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts during this past week for the three major cruise lines.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal yesterday afternoon, they had this headline: “S&P 500 Enters Correction" with this sub-headline:  "Major indexes on track to fall for three straight months.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “The autumn pullback in the stock market worsened Friday, pushing the S&P 500 into a correction and to its worst two-week decline of the year.  The broad stock-market gauge wavered for much of the day before turning lower and losing 0.5% for the session, bringing it down more than 10% from its recent high. A drop in shares of Chevron and JPMorgan Chase helped send the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 367 points, or 1.1%, to its lowest closing level since March.”

 

Additionally, they reported:  "The mood in the market has darkened in October as investors have parsed a wave of earnings results from some of the biggest companies in America while navigating a punishing bond rout.  The week was marked with even bigger swings under the surface for everything from technology heavyweights to oil giants. Shares of companies that investors cheered for much of the year—and that had sent major indexes soaring—were particularly hard-hit. "

 

Below is the Wall Street Journal chart for the S&P 500 Index during the past three months.  Downward?  Does that description fit correctly?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-10-27-2023-0533f1a7

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 257,102 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1362155-solstice-livefirst-timer-reportspix’s-italycroatian-june-7-19/

Edited October 28, 2023 by TLCOhio

[TLCOhio]

From MSN News and a financial news website, this morning, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?” with these highlights: “NCLH is scheduled to report third-quarter 2023 results on Nov 1 before the opening bell.  Norwegian Cruise’s third-quarter revenues are anticipated to record a year-over-year rise, propelled by robust booking trends, improved occupancy rates and ongoing efforts to expand its fleet. Its performance is expected to benefit from increased onboard revenues driven by improved bundled offerings, strong advance ticket sales and higher pricing levels. For the third quarter of 2023, Norwegian Cruise anticipates occupancy to be approximately 106%.  Emphasis on margin enhancement initiatives, such as itinerary optimization, supply-chain initiatives and rationalization of product delivery, are likely to have aided NCLH’s performance in the third quarter.”

 

Am planning to listen Wednesday morning to this NCLH quarterly report and to hear the questions/comments from their CEO and top executives.  Also, very interested as to what they say as to the impacts from the cancellation for Israel cruises and other stops in the war-challenged Middle East.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/norwegian-cruise-nclh-to-post-q3-earnings-whats-in-store/ar-AA1j5ZdV

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 249,313 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1172051-livesilver-cloud-norway-coastfjords-july-1-16-reports/

[TLCOhio]

From this above MSN News posting, here was an interesting five-year chart for Norwegian stock values.  This visual reflects what happened in early 2020 as Covid hit.  Yes, there has been "recovery", but the stock market is still not very confident, long-term, if this chart is an accurate predictor for the future.  

 

Reactions and comments as to what your "Crystal Ball" predicts?  How much of this "bounce back" failure has to do with the huge debt load owed by cruises lines and/or worry as to when the world economy hits some sort of a recession?  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 246,006 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1896175-solstice-live-australianzhawaii-many-pix’s-jan-20-feb-3/

[TLCOhio]

Am listening now to discussions and canned comments from the Norwegian CEO during their quarterly briefing with the Wall Street stock experts/analysts.  This includes comments about impacts from the Maui fires and current war impacts for Israel, etc.  More later.  

 

From the Reuters newswire this morning, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise trims annual profit forecast as higher fuel costs pinch” with these highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings trimmed its annual profit forecast on Wednesday, as elevated fuel costs offset gains from higher ticket prices and resilient demand for cruises that are cheaper than land-based vacations.  Higher expenses linked to food, fuel, raw materials and labor as well as a stronger U.S. dollar have continued to strain profits of cruise operators, which are now also expecting an impact from the Israel-Hamas war that started on Oct. 7.  'We are prudently moderating short term expectations and keeping a close eye on rapidly evolving global macroeconomic and geopolitical events,' said Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings CEO Harry Sommer.”

 

Also from this Reuters report: "The company said it had cancelled and redirected all trips to Israel and to the surrounding region for the remainder of 2023, and was also in the process of cancelling all trips to Israel in 2024, due to the ongoing military conflict."

 

Full story at:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegian-cruise-trims-annual-profit-114241881.html?ref=biztoc.com

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 108,238 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

[TLCOhio]

Just completed listening to the various questions from the Wall Street analysts on the live quarterly report from Norwegian's CEO and CFO.  

 

There was interest as to . . . . 2024 outlook??  Next year’s costs?  Eastern Med impacts?  They are hoping for that current war to be a “short-term event”.  

 

They noted that for every month for the next year they are booked at higher level than what they saw during the previous year.  They have a number of dry-dock costs in 2024.  They are seeking to avoid discounting  and keep pricing, plus "Load and yield" steady.  There was mention as to the potential of Turkey as indirect impact on cruises.  

 

It was indicated they have about a third of their future fuel costs as hedged.  They will be doing “alternative itineraries” to replace the Israel stops in ALL of 2024.  There was a question as to their future marketing costs as they have less new ship deliveries next year.  Their next new ship will be in spring of 2025 with two new ships coming then.  As to competition from new luxury brands, they do not view that as having a “meaningful impact”. 

 

From the Associated Press/AP newswire and a newspaper this morning, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line: Q3 Earnings Snapshot” with these highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) on Wednesday reported third-quarter profit of $345.9 million.  On a per-share basis, the Miami-based company said it had profit of 71 cents. Earnings, adjusted for stock option expense, were 76 cents per share.  The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 69 cents per share.”

 

Hope these rough notes and background are of help.  Might share more later.  

 

Full AP story at:

https://www.ctpost.com/business/article/norwegian-cruise-line-q3-earnings-snapshot-18461413.php

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 73,238 views:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2076101-live-amazon-river-caribbean-many-pix’s-terryohio/

 

Upping the competition to Silversea, etc., for new meanings of luxury?  Below is one of charts from today's Norwegian quarterly briefing that shares details as to Regent Seven Sea's newest ship coming out later this year.  Looking lux??  Second is one of their charts sharing more details as to their liquidity.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

[TLCOhio]

As a follow-up from Wednesday's quarterly stock analyst briefing by the Norwegian CEO, here are more details as to the impact for this major cruise company scrubbing stops in Israel later this year and for all of next year.  

 

From this business news website yesterday, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line cancels all Israel sailings for 2024” with these highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Line has canceled all calls in Israel ports in 2024, due to the Israel-Hamas war.   When asked why it was necessary to cancel sailings so far ahead, Norwegian Cruise Line CEO Harry Sommer said, 'I think it will take time before people feel safe about returning to Israel and so we have canceled cruises to Israel in 2024, even if the conflict, as we hope, ends in a short time.'  The company said that 7% of its capacity in the fourth quarter was connected to the Middle East (including Cyprus) and about 4% of expected capacity in 2024.”

 

Full story at:

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-norwegian-cruise-line-cancels-all-israel-sailings-for-2024-1001461614

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Visuals, details from two visits in a city and nearby with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 59,465 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

[TLCOhio]

With the major changes to Middle East cruises, how are the various lines treating their customers, including for those affecting by Silversea?  

 

From USA Today and MSN News this morning, they had this headline: “Stuck with a $20,000 bill? Oceania guests struggle for refunds amid major cruise changes” with these highlights: “Janet and Joe Sherwood's bucket list trip became a burden.  The couple booked a Nov. 29 cruise from Istanbul to Dubai with Oceania Cruises, but in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war, the cruise line – like many others – adjusted its plans, altering the itinerary dramatically. The roughly three-week sailing aboard the Riviera ship, set to visit Haifa, Luxor, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, only retains about half of its original ports, including the start and end points.”

 

Here is more: "The couple is among several Oceania guests who have struggled to get refunds or compensation in the wake of drastic changes to planned sailings. Multiple guests said they felt locked into cruises they wouldn’t have chosen to take.  After appealing their case, the line's Vice President, Global Guest Services, Carlos Ortega told the Sherwoods Oceania would not issue any compensation or future cruise credits for canceled reservations.  The couple also bought travel insurance through Oceania but said their policy would not cover those kinds of itinerary changes."

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/stuck-with-a-20000-bill-oceania-guests-struggle-for-refunds-amid-major-cruise-changes/ar-AA1jiv5f

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 55,164 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

[RetiredandTravel]

On 10/21/2023 at 12:21 AM, Stumblefoot said:

That is one impressive slide downward.  
 

Should be a safe buy level, but set your stops tight ($76) because she could slide all the way back down below $65.  Limit your losses to 5% or less will always be your least loss and the pathway to big money long term.

 

 

Bottom ticked that one - nice

 

[taxatty]

2 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

With the major changes to Middle East cruises, how are the various lines treating their customers, including for those affecting by Silversea?  

 

From USA Today and MSN News this morning, they had this headline: “Stuck with a $20,000 bill? Oceania guests struggle for refunds amid major cruise changes” with these highlights: “Janet and Joe Sherwood's bucket list trip became a burden.  The couple booked a Nov. 29 cruise from Istanbul to Dubai with Oceania Cruises, but in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war, the cruise line – like many others – adjusted its plans, altering the itinerary dramatically. The roughly three-week sailing aboard the Riviera ship, set to visit Haifa, Luxor, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, only retains about half of its original ports, including the start and end points.”

 

Here is more: "The couple is among several Oceania guests who have struggled to get refunds or compensation in the wake of drastic changes to planned sailings. Multiple guests said they felt locked into cruises they wouldn’t have chosen to take.  After appealing their case, the line's Vice President, Global Guest Services, Carlos Ortega told the Sherwoods Oceania would not issue any compensation or future cruise credits for canceled reservations.  The couple also bought travel insurance through Oceania but said their policy would not cover those kinds of itinerary changes."

 

As we all know, this "too bad" rule is basically universal in the industry. You should get some port fees refunded, but that's about it. Anything more is up to the largesse of the cruise line, as far as it's concerned.

[TLCOhio]

20 hours ago, taxatty said:

As we all know, this "too bad" rule is basically universal in the industry. You should get some port fees refunded, but that's about it. Anything more is up to the largesse of the cruise line, as far as it's concerned.

 

Appreciate these great comments and follow-ups from R&T and our friend in Miami.  Sad but true as to the cruise line attitude of "too bad" with such major cruise schedule changes.  In late 2018, we super loved and enjoyed our cruise with Oceania that included as "super-star" stops for Israel and Luxor, etc., during our Athens to Dubai sailing.    

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines during the past five trading days.  

 

Up, UP was the story for Thursday and Friday after Norwegian did their quarterly update with stock analysts.  Clearly the uncertainties continue for cruises in the eastern Middle East.  

 

What happens with the stock market and for these cruise stocks during November and December?  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 34,066 views.  Many pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday, below are their charts for the three major cruises and their stock performance during these five trading days.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

Here is another look at Royal Caribbean during the past three months.  It was a slow slide downward until the past couple of weeks.  Where for the rest of this year?:

 

For comparison, below is the WSJ chart for the overall S&P 500 during the most recent three months.:

[TLCOhio]

From this financial news website late last week, they had this headline: “1 Stock to Avoid No Matter What” with this sub-headline: "Norwegian Cruise Lines stock is down 41% since July and facing financial headwinds."

 

Here is part of their analysis highlights: “The stock market has been wobbly this year. The S&P 500 index gained 18.5% in the first seven months of 2023 but has dropped back to a year-to-date increase of just 9.6% since then.  The cruise line industry strikes me as a sector to avoid in the long run, and Norwegian Cruise Lines is arguably the worst idea in that uncalled-for market. This stock is down by 41% since the end of July, undermined by weak guidance in two earnings reports.  First, the cruise sector has been struggling as a whole since the coronavirus crisis kept every ship anchored in 2020. To escape that brutal downturn, they financed their operations with uncomfortable combinations of expensive debt and dilutive stock sales. The best of the best will struggle with these decisions for years to come, especially since annual rates on variable-interest loans have skyrocketed over the last two years."  

 

Here are more of their specifics:  "Norwegian is absolutely not the best investment in this struggling industry. With less than $700 million in cash balanced against $12.6 billion of long-term debt, the company is buckling under the debt load. That wouldn't be so bad if Norwegian generated cash profits, as Royal Caribbean and Carnival Cruise Lines are doing again after a long period of red ink. But this underperformer burned $356 million of free cash in the third quarter.”

 

Ready to buy Norwegian's challenged stock?

 

This was their bottom-line summary: "I think the cruise industry is full of falling knives that will leave your fingers scarred in the long run if you try to catch them at a low price. And Norwegian Cruise Lines looks more dangerous than its larger and more cash-efficient rivals."

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/11/02/1-stock-to-avoid-no-matter-what-and-1-worth-adding/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 32,477 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

[Hlitner]

Terry, Enjoying your financial-related posts.  NCLH is the only major cruise stock NOT in our portfolio and we have been thinking about bottom fishing (even though it might be like catching a falling knife) since we would get a fast 18% return because of an upcoming O cruise.  That being said, we have previously posted (going back about 2 years) that NCLH is our highest cruise company candidate for bankruptcy.  

 

Our major concern about the company is "O"s inventory of 4 old "R" ships.  None of these vessels is up to the standards one would expect of "Premium" line ships, because of the cabin/bath designs.  These days, folks on cruises (even on mass market lines) expect larger bathrooms (especially showers).  While "O" can keep upgrading those 4 aging vessels, there is little they can do to improve the cabin bathrooms.  At some point "O" will need to sell those ships and they are certainly not going to get top dollar.

 

And to add to the perfect storm working against NCLH (inflation, soaring fuel costs, increased competition) we now have the middle east situation which is already causing lots of grief (and money) to NCLH.  Just following the posts on the "O" board, it is obvious that "O" has put their own financial situation far above customer service/relations for those booked on a few middle eastern itineraries.  Bad customer service is never a good thing in an industry where many customers have long memories.

 

Hank

[TLCOhio]

On 11/6/2023 at 11:22 AM, Hlitner said:

Terry, Enjoying your financial-related posts.  NCLH is the only major cruise stock NOT in our portfolio and we have been thinking about bottom fishing (even though it might be like catching a falling knife) since we would get a fast 18% return because of an upcoming O cruise.  That being said, we have previously posted (going back about 2 years) that NCLH is our highest cruise company candidate for bankruptcy.  Hank

 

Appreciate these wise comments and smart follow-up from the super savvy Hank.  Yes, those on Wall Street do view Norwegian as the cruise corporation as the most in question and at risk.  There are serious challenges and questions with them.  

 

Your point of "Our major concern about the company is "O"s inventory of 4 old "R" ships" is very valid and significant.  We have done two cruises with Oceania and both were on these R ships.  Yes, they are classic, nice ships.  Had wonderful, fun intermarries.   Our second cruise with them was on one that had been upgraded and polished up.  BUT, those small bathrooms, especially in the tiny showers, cannot be fixed with fresh paint and new carpet.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their charts for the past week's trading.  Is "ROCKY" a good summary for this past week?  Clearly, the fluctuations were most significant with Norwegian.  Right? 

 

If you look at and compare the 52-week value range for these three stocks, it is interesting and may be telling.  Royal Caribbean is now nearly at twice their low point during the past twelve months.  By contrast, Norwegian is not that far above their past year low point.  Do Wall Street experts know something of financial importance related to Norwegian?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East during an 18-day sailing with Oceania. Now at 22,183 views.  Connect for more at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday, below are their charts for the three major cruises and their stock performance during these five trading days.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

At noon today, Royal Caribbean is up 3% while at the same time, the other two main cruise companies are going down into negative territory.  Hard to figure out what drives such a sharp contrast for stock value movements.   

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “The Clearest Sign Yet That Commercial Real Estate Is in Trouble" with this sub-headline:  "Lenders are issuing a record number of foreclosure notices related to risky property loans.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “Foreclosures are surging in an opaque and risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the starkest signs yet that turmoil in the property market is worsening.  Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for high-risk property loans, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Many of these loans are similar to second mortgages and commonly known as mezzanine loans.”

 

The glut of office space and looming foreclosures might be a sign for a "flashing yellow light" saying watch out for what is ahead financially?  Reactions and speculation as to the economic future?

 

Overall the broader stock market has done well, so far, this year.  Below is the S&P 500 Index since early January.  Looking like a good overall trend?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/the-clearest-sign-yet-that-commercial-real-estate-is-in-trouble-cb8dfafa?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals, Our firsts in these scenic areas!  Now at 20,128 views. Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal this mid-morning, below is their chart showing Royal Caribbean's stock jumping up, UP, over the $100 a share level.  

 

Also, this am, the shares for Carnival and Norwegian have risen more than 8%.  WOW!!  What is happening and why?  Any insights and/or good guesses?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Early 2020, many visuals and details from New Zealand/South Pacific in going from Auckland to French Polynesia.  This includes Bora Bora, Fiji, NZ experiences, etc:  Live/blog:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2735732-live-terryohio-“new”-regatta-south-pacificnz-pix’s/