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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
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17 hours ago, taxatty said:

Absolutely correct. It also explains the ability of cruise lines to significantly increase fares without apparently reducing demand.It all comes down to two pieces of advice:    

1. The perfect estate plan is to spend your last dime the day you die.

2. If you don't travel first class, your children will!

 

Appreciate this excellent and wise follow-up from our Florida friend.  Both items/rules can be very true.  However, good or bad, it is hard figure out the "timing" as to how you are able to plan and achieve that spending of your last dime on the day you die.  Challenging??!!  How do we do that?

 

From the Wall Street Journal late yesterday, below are their charts for the three different major cruise lines during the most recent five trading days.  On Thursday, Royal Caribbean hit a new 52-week high!!  The other two companies have some distance to go before hitting highs for the past 12 months.  

 

Also below are the charts for how these three companies have moved, up and down, during the past 36 months.  By my "analysis", Royal Caribbean has performed and rebounded best.  Correct?  This past week, RCL hit a three-year high.  The other two companies are long, long ways from achieving such a 36-month peak.  

 

Other reactions and comments?  Added insights and future predictions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 258,326 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1362155-solstice-livefirst-timer-reportspix’s-italycroatian-june-7-19/

 

These WSJ charts show how the three cruise ship stocks performed during the past five days of trading.  Thursday was a big UPPER!  But, things slid back down on Friday.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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Here are the WSJ charts for the three major cruise lines over the past three years.  Very different patterns and history affecting these three companies as to how the Wall Street experts/traders have rated/valued these firms.  Royal Caribbean seems to have fared the best.  Right?  Or wrong?:

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From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's early this morning, they had this headline: Cruise Demand Is Hot. Investors Will Soon Have a New Way to Play It with these highlights: “Long ago, Vikings pillaged and plundered. Today, Viking cruise ships make their profits from much more sedate voyages, and the company hopes to soon go public amid a surge in sailing demand.”

 

Viking going public and being on the stock market could be interesting to follow.  More options for investors?  More information about their profits, ships being full (or not), etc.?

 

Early this am, Royal Caribbean was moving up, UP in early trading!  Both Carnival and Norwegian were up about 1% early this am.  A future, long-term trend?   

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/viking-holdings-cruise-stock-ipo-2f281e54?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D77626320452482689262797225847612851544|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1711979709

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio 

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 250,914 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1172051-livesilver-cloud-norway-coastfjords-july-1-16-reports/

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Here is a MSN link to a longer version of this Barron's story with these added details as to what might be coming from Viking: “In late February, Viking Holdings announced it had filed a confidential registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission related to its proposed initial public offering. The company, known for its upscale river cruises, didn’t disclose the number of shares or potential price range of its planned IPO.”

 

Here is more from their reporting about the overall market:  "Over the past 12 months, Carnival has risen 61%, Norwegian has floated 58% higher, and Royal Caribbean has more than doubled with a 115% rise. The S&P 500, in comparison, has risen 30% over that span.  That broad-based strength speaks to how all segments of the cruise industry are bustling."

 

Another key insight reported was: "Cruises aren’t popular with all travelers, but part of the recent swell of bookings comes amid several factors working in their favor. Inflation and airport delays mean that many travelers are skipping hotels and airplanes in favor of sailing from a port near their home. In addition, cruise packages often include food and activities, giving guests a simple number for budgeting."

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cruise-demand-is-hot-investors-will-soon-have-a-new-way-to-play-it/ar-BB1kRjx3

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 249,552 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1896175-solstice-live-australianzhawaii-many-pix’s-jan-20-feb-3/

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40 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Here is a MSN link to a longer version of this Barron's story with these added details as to what might be coming from Viking: “In late February, Viking Holdings announced it had filed a confidential registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission related to its proposed initial public offering. The company, known for its upscale river cruises, didn’t disclose the number of shares or potential price range of its planned IPO.”

 

Here is more from their reporting about the overall market:  "Over the past 12 months, Carnival has risen 61%, Norwegian has floated 58% higher, and Royal Caribbean has more than doubled with a 115% rise. The S&P 500, in comparison, has risen 30% over that span.  That broad-based strength speaks to how all segments of the cruise industry are bustling."

 

Another key insight reported was: "Cruises aren’t popular with all travelers, but part of the recent swell of bookings comes amid several factors working in their favor. Inflation and airport delays mean that many travelers are skipping hotels and airplanes in favor of sailing from a port near their home. In addition, cruise packages often include food and activities, giving guests a simple number for budgeting."

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cruise-demand-is-hot-investors-will-soon-have-a-new-way-to-play-it/ar-BB1kRjx3

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 249,552 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1896175-solstice-live-australianzhawaii-many-pix’s-jan-20-feb-3/

The statistic that I saw once was that 40-50% of Caribbean pax never get off the ship - they view the ship as an all inclusive floating hotel that travels for a week.  Most of the local flavor in that market has been bulldozed by a tsunami of 18k pax getting off multiple ships at one time. 

 

I would think the the average Silversea pax almost always get off as they are on port intensive worldwide cruises

 

There is always a chorus of Retreat suite pax on the X board that are talking of defecting to the next level up when they see X suite prices - Oceania, Silversea, Regent et al.  The prices per day are comparable.  All sounds good except those next level up ships are not easy to get to (or return from) , leave on Monday and return the week following Thursday.  

 

The rising tide does lift all the boats at the Royal group. 

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On 4/1/2024 at 11:15 AM, tfred said:

The statistic that I saw once was that 40-50% of Caribbean pax never get off the ship - they view the ship as an all inclusive floating hotel that travels for a week.  Most of the local flavor in that market has been bulldozed by a tsunami of 18k pax getting off multiple ships at one time. I would think the the average Silversea pax almost always get off as they are on port intensive worldwide cruises.   The rising tide does lift all the boats at the Royal group. 

 

Interesting data/background from our Florida/RI friend as to those just doing "Float on a Boat" as their cruise plan/objective.  We are the port-intensive types, but I understand others with a different goal.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below is their mid-day chart and headline showing how the overall market dropped down, DOWN so sharply today.  The three cruise lines fell today in a similar negative manner.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

image.thumb.png.add8ae9f2c4ee459886b73ccc4d1e31a.png

 

 

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On 3/29/2024 at 3:40 PM, taxatty said:

Absolutely correct. It also explains the ability of cruise lines to significantly increase fares without apparently reducing demand.

 

It all comes down to two pieces of advice:

 

1. The perfect estate plan is to spend your last dime the day you die.

2. If you don't travel first class, your children will!

I certainly agree, at least for people of a certain age or with the means to do so.  Make sure all is ok with the younger generations while enjoying what you got while you can.   We've been telling my octogenarian in-laws to do just that.

 

Unfortunately what I'm seeing anecdotally are people in their 20s-40s spending all they make (and often more) with no understanding or aforethought about how they'll pay for college/weddings/etc or, for that matter, for their own retirement.  Either they think their parents will pay for it or the government will pay for it.  I'm not talking about people actually struggling in this market...those living paycheck-to-paycheck because there is no choice.  Rather I'm talking about people who live paycheck-to-paycheck because they WANT to (the ultimate American consumer).

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On 4/2/2024 at 4:45 PM, Whinenowine said:

I certainly agree, at least for people of a certain age or with the means to do so.  Make sure all is ok with the younger generations while enjoying what you got while you can.   We've been telling my octogenarian in-laws to do just that.  Unfortunately what I'm seeing anecdotally are people in their 20s-40s spending all they make (and often more) with no understanding or aforethought about how they'll pay for college/weddings/etc or, for that matter, for their own retirement.  Either they think their parents will pay for it or the government will pay for it. 

 

Appreciate these above great comments and follow-up from our New Jersey neighbor.  Yes, there are differences as to how varied generations approach these short-term versus long-term economic situations/challenges.  Money and spending?  What could go wrong?  Or, right? 

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barrons yesterday morning, they had this headline: Buy Carnival Stock. Choppy Market Conditions Will Pass" with this sub-headline:  "Shares of the cruise operator have dropped since it reported earnings last month. It looks like a dip worth buying.

 

Here are some of their reporting/analysis details:Carnival has hit some rough waters, but its recent post earnings selloff looks like a great opportunity to book a cruise on its stock at a discount.  At first blush, Carnival’s fiscal first-quarter earnings report on March 27 should have been reason for celebration on the Lido deck. The company reported a loss of 14 cents a share, better than its own guidance for a 22-cent loss and the 18-cent loss that analysts were expecting. In addition, Carnival said it saw record bookings during the quarter, with significantly higher pricing.

 

Ready to pull out your wallet, place a "bet" on this and other cruise stocks?  So far, this week has been fairly "rocky" for the market and cruise stocks.  More later after the markets close later this afternoon.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-carnival-stock-pick-price-658e03c1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 111,961 views.

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From the Wall Street Journal's Barron's and MSN News today, they had this headline: Cruise Operator Viking’s IPO Could Be Valued at Over $10 Billion with these highlights:Viking Holdings, the parent high-end Viking Cruise Lines, generated an impressive $1 billion of adjusted free cash flow last year on $4.7 billion of revenue in 2023, according to a preliminary prospectus for an initial public offering.  Based on its revenue and profitability, Viking could have a market value of $10 billion or more, Barron’s estimates. The company has sizable debt of $5.4 billion.

 

This reporting also shared:  "The deal could prove popular with investors because of the company’s growth, profitability, and niche among affluent consumers. Its focus is on travelers aged 55 and older who will spend over $7,000 per passenger for a cruise.   Viking plans to list under VIK on the New York Stock Exchange.  The cruise industry is back in vogue on Wall Street after its near-death experience during 2020."

 

Is Viking, with its growing ocean-sailing expansion/focus, now somewhat of a potential competitor to Silversea and other luxury lines?  There are difference between RCL/Silversea, but there are some overlaps as both seek customers who can afford to pay more.  Right or wrong?

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/cruise-operator-viking-s-ipo-could-be-valued-at-over-10-billion/ar-BB1l8L98

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 111,961 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

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From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below are the stock value charts for the three major cruise lines during this past week's five days of trading.  

 

Good or bad?  I would summarize that things look both rocky and negative.  BUT, the overall market had some serious "bumps" this past week as traders try to figure out where the Federal Reserve and interest rates are headed during the remaining months of this year.  

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THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados on the Silver Cloud for 26 days. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 74,854 views:

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2076101-live-amazon-river-caribbean-many-pix’s-terryohio/

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From the Wall Street Journal later on this Friday afternoon, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines.  Overall, it was not a good week for either the cruise lines or the overall S&P 500.  See the charts below. 

 

Also below is a look at Royal Caribbean during the most recent one month of trading.   Not exactly a positive upswing after rising to 52-weeks high earlier in this month?

 

Predictions for the cruise stock and/or the overall market during the rest of this month?  Or, for later 2024?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Visuals, details from two visits in a city and nearby with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 64,323 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

Here are the WSJ charts for the three major cruise stock during the most recent five days of trading.  Two of the five days for Royal Caribbean involved sharp, negative drops.  Is this all about the overall market slide?  Or, something else?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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For the most recent one-month period, here is the RCL chart from the Wall Street Journal.  Up the mountain and then, down, down?:

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Here is the WSJ chart for the past week with the wider S&P 500 group of stock values.:

image.thumb.png.f148e17bf7215d01caff7bd57f348ed2.png

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From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below are their charts for the most recent five days of trading.  Interestingly, these three stocks moved in different ways and patterns during this past week.  Especially for Royal Caribbean, it was a rather "rocky" and negative week.  Not as much for the other two major cruise lines.  

 

Coming up May 1, Norwegian will be doing its quarterly report for the stock analysts.  That might create some stories and headlines.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Love the Caribbean? Here are popular posts/links with around 29,000 views with much info for . . . .

Barbadoshttps://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2179164-barbados-50th-birthday-our-pixs-experiences-feb2015/page/3/#comment-65530134Or, Dominicahttps://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2169714-dominica-love-our-experience-pictures-etc/page/3/#comment-66637276

 

 

Here are the WSJ charts for the three major cruise stock during the most recent five days of trading.  Is any trend clearly showing?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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For added perspective, here is the overall S&P 500 index from the Wall Street Journal for the past one month period of trading.  Looks like a fairly negative slide during this period, especially most recently.  Right?: 

image.thumb.png.9e47e7d83a176aa4bbf44232ebd3b3a6.png

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5 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

 

Appreciate this follow-ups about Viking's move with their IPO.  Great question by highplanesdrifters!!  It will be interesting to follow and see how this move impacts the other cruise line stocks.  

 

From Bloomberg and MSN News this morning, they had this headline: Cruise Operator Viking Sets Price Range for $1.1 Billion IPO with these highlights:Viking Holdings and its existing shareholders are seeking to raise as much as $1.1 billion in a New York initial public offering, with the cruise operator looking to go public as the travel industry rebounds from its pandemic-era slump.The company and the investors are offering 44 million shares between $21.00 and $25.00 per ordinary share.  A revival in cruise bookings has sparked a boom in the sector, with shares in Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. doubling in value over the past year while Carnival Corp. has jumped more than 50%.

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/cruise-operator-viking-sets-price-range-for-1-1-billion-ipo/ar-AA1nrMUR

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon vs. Porto?  Many different Portugal tips, options, ideas, visuals, etc. with nearly 30,000 views at:   https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2558841-lisbon-vs-porto-which-best/page/7/#comment-66782296

 

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From a Wall Street Journal-related financial news website this morning, they had this headline: Royal Caribbean Climbs In Buy Zone, Hikes Outlook On Strong Demand with these highlights:Cruise giant Royal Caribbean Group swung higher early Thursday after clearing first-quarter estimates and hiking its outlook on a huge wave of demand. RCL stock jumped higher in a buy zone during premarket trade.  Royal Caribbean reported adjusted earnings of $1.77 per share, improving from a loss of 23 cents per share last year. Total revenue leapt 29% to $3.73 billion.  Royal Caribbean says it continues to be in a record booked position, with rates for 2024 sailings even further ahead of 2023 levels than they were at the beginning of the year. 

 

At early afternoon today, the overall market was down significantly, but RCL was up, UP.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.investors.com/news/royal-caribbean-rcl-stock-buy-zone-earnings/?src=A00619&refcode=aflMarketWatch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Love the Caribbean? Here are two popular posts/links with thousands of views with much info for . . . . Grenada   

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2179927-grenada-pixs-fun-experiences-jan2015/page/2/#comment-66823149

Or, Aruba:  https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2178325-aruba-pixs-fun-experiences-feb2015/page/3/#comment-66677721

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From the Wall Street Journal charts late Friday, below are the stock moves for the three major cruise lines.  Unlike in many week, these three stocks had somewhat different moves and patterns during these five trading days.  

 

On Thursday, Barron's had this headline: "Royal Caribbean Earnings Tick All the Boxes. The Stock Is Sailing Higher."

 

Why?  Trends?  Meanings?  Future moves?

 

From the Wall Street Journal Thursday, they had this headline: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Gives a Soft Landing Long Odds" with this sub-headline:  "Jamie Dimon says the U.S. consumer is in good shape right now, but a huge fiscal deficit and geopolitical challenges make him cautious about the future. 

 

The general consensus is that interest rates are not going to be cut quickly and that there are longer-term questions for when, if and how deep of an economic "adjustment" will happen.  Any good predictions?  Or, guesses?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/in-depth-features/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-gives-a-soft-landing-long-odds/6C29CE62-8388-4293-A57B-2A13D986C87D?page=1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Abu Dhabi vs. Dubai?  Many different UAE tips, options, ideas, visuals, etc. with more than 20,000 views at:  https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2521493-abu-dhabi-vs-dubai-procon-factors/page/5/#comment-66634467

 

During this past week's five-day period, here are the charts for the three major cruise lines.  Things were steady and upward for Royal Caribbean.  More mixed for Carnival and Norwegian?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

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image.thumb.png.a9eb35f9d4ca0b53a728e8306d5a1170.png

 

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For the past 30-day period, this below chart gives a different perspectives as to the slide and then rebounding for Royal Caribbean during this time period.:

image.thumb.png.b0ff26309b73292e5af085729e9c74fa.png

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From the New York Times on Thursday and yesterday, there were two different stories detailing certain of the current economic factors now playing out.  

 

First, this headline: Bets on Rate Cuts This Year Are Fading Away" with this sub-headline:  "Stubborn inflation has led traders to forecast far fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than just a few months ago. 

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights yesterday for this interest rate analysis:At the start of 2024, investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates substantially this year as inflation cooled. But price increases have been surprisingly stubborn, and that is forcing a rethink on Wall Street.  Investors and economists are questioning when and how much Fed policymakers will manage to cut rates — and some are increasingly dubious that Fed officials will manage to lower them at all this year.  Inflation was coming down steadily in 2023, but that progress has stalled out in 2024.

 

Second is this key summary headline from Thursday: U.S. Growth Slowed in First Quarter, but Inflation Remained a Bug" with this sub-headline: "Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.

 

For this second report, here are some added highlights:The U.S. economy remained resilient early this year, with a strong job market fueling robust consumer spending. The trouble is that inflation was resilient, too.  Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year. That was down sharply from the 3.4 percent growth rate at the end of 2023 and fell well short of forecasters’ expectations.

 

Interest rates and economic growth?  With higher than hoped inflation rates?  is that a clear picture of the future?

 

Full stories at:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/26/business/economy/fed-rate-cut-forecast.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/business/economy/us-economy-gdp-growth.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 258,970 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1362155-solstice-livefirst-timer-reportspix’s-italycroatian-june-7-19/

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16 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

 

Hmmmm, still a little frothy out there.

 

Speaking of shoes, I keep expecting one to drop.  Inflation, a plethora of geopolitical risks, etc., etc, etc, and yet here we are. A parabolic market and all we get is a 5% correction.  I would have though the Stimmie money should have worked it's way through the system. Perhaps not.   Can the Boomer spending and kid gifting be adding more than I thought?

 

Range trade through the summer and cocktails on the veranda!

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1 hour ago, highplanesdrifters said:

 

Hmmmm, still a little frothy out there.

 

Speaking of shoes, I keep expecting one to drop.  Inflation, a plethora of geopolitical risks, etc., etc, etc, and yet here we are. A parabolic market and all we get is a 5% correction.  I would have though the Stimmie money should have worked it's way through the system. Perhaps not.   Can the Boomer spending and kid gifting be adding more than I thought?

 

Range trade through the summer and cocktails on the veranda!

 

 

Hard to say.  My opinion is that much depends on the true impact of AI.  The return of inflation probably would not be good.  Just enjoying the ride, I sell periodically because my equity % gets higher than I'd like.

 

I found the Viking Prospectus to have some interesting information.  Viking may be a decent proxy for the luxury market.   Its not what I call true "luxury" but from a laymans perspective I guess it is..  My calculations show ocean being ~44% in 2023 of total revenue (p35) and it looks like they intend to add 6 more ocean ships this decade.  

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1745201/000119312524087969/d496227df1.htm

 

 

Cheers!!

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