Not so fast

[loungelady55]

1 hour ago, david_sobe said:

This is expected.  Its also fine for them to declare bankruptcy to reorganize debt.  Happens all the time.  

NCL was a very profitable company.  Even if it takes a year for a vaccine there are golden years yet to come.  I still think its going to get worse before it gets better.  I just don't see the amount of travel it takes to take a cruise and have thousands of people crammed together on planes, buses, and cruise ships during a pandemic.  We are seriously going to quarantine ships again?
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result.  IMHO if you cruise during a pandemic you should sign away your first responder rights.  I know that is harsh but why are you putting so many more at risk just because you want a vacation for yourself.  When the ship gets quarantined don't complain how poorly you are treated by the cruise line.  Don't complain how the government and hospitals don't want you.  Don't complain there is nothing to eat on the ship.  Don't complain how NCL wont refund your money.  Don't complain because you are stranded in port.

Its impossible to be with thousands of people who just traveled on planes during a pandemic and not expect several people to infect the ship.  That's not negative.  That is reality.  Cruise lines just took a beating online for discounting the pandemic and encouraging people to cruise. Now we want to go down this road again?

Wow, I will go to have a vacation.  Seriously hope you are home with the negativity.

 

 

[david_sobe]

24 minutes ago, loungelady55 said:

Wow, I will go to have a vacation.  Seriously hope you are home with the negativity.

 

 

Well you are being negative and projecting on to me.   I have over 6000+ posts here on CC while you have only 96.  I love cruising more than anyone.  Go on vacation.  But don't burden the rest of society with your complaints of being stranded, getting sick, quarantined, and not getting refunds.  We just went through that cycle and you will be begging those you claim as being "negative" to come rescue you.

Its sad when reality makes you think negatively.  "I will go have a vacation"  Good, that is exactly what NCL was telling customers 2 months ago.  Nothing has changed.  Perhaps you should call NCL and ask them why they are being so negative and not sailing 🤭

Edited May 6, 2020 by david_sobe

[Charles4515]

Well that didn't take long for the negativity [emoji846]  I guess the glass if half empty for you.
 

It is realism. I am optimistic that the danger will be greatly reduced by late 2020 early 2021 but that may not turn out to be the case.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[Charles4515]

Every business is in great danger right now.  No one is immune to the financial repercussions of this pandemic.  The fact that they got a 2 billion plus influx of cash in less than 24 hours tells me that some really smart people, with a lot of money see a bright future for NCL and the cruise industry as a whole.

 

I said this from the beginning and I will say it again today.  The American appetite for cruising is too great for the major cruise lines to just vanish.  They will get through this like we all will, just have to make some tough business decisions in order to do so.

 

What they see is a lot of ships they can own if NCL fails. They are collateral. If NCL fails those ships will be used by somebody else. The end of NCL does not mean the forever end of the cruise industry. When Renaissance went bankrupt that cruise line ended but the ships were sold off and used by other cruise lines.

 

 

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[tgloersen]

Great news for NCL, but still want my 8K back from my Alaska Cruise.

[Corliss]

I think it is useful to remember that NCL sailed approximately one half of a million people on their 17 ships during the pandemic months of Jan. through March.  Yet there were only a handful of covid cases on 3 ships in total.  And no NCL ship was quarantined.  As I have said before their passenger screening and sanitation standards were superior to what you are likely to encounter in every day life.  And to be fair to their competitors on the sea most other ships had no covid either.

 

Is is possible that you will contract covid on an NCL cruise?  Of course it is.  And it is possible you will contract the virus at work, at the grocery store or at your dentist's office.  We are just going to have to live with the virus until it burns itself out.  Some scientists think the virus will burn out by summer.  Here's a link to one of them, though I have read several others recently, too.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/coronavirus-expert-says-the-virus-will-burn-itself-out-in-about-6-months/679415

 

We have developed improved testing that will even allow cruise ships to test passengers prior to boarding.  Today I pasted a link to the new test developed by our military that can detect the virus one day after infection which is long before symptoms or contagion is present.

 

We have developed reasonably good treatments for covid and fatality rates are now about .66 percent.

 

If people don't feel comfortable cruising this year then they shouldn't.  But, I can't wait....:-)

 

[njhorseman]

25 minutes ago, Corliss said:

Some scientists think the virus will burn out by summer.  Here's a link to one of them, though I have read several others recently, too.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/coronavirus-expert-says-the-virus-will-burn-itself-out-in-about-6-months/679415

That story was published on February 11, before anyone had enough knowledge about COVID-19 to predict anything.

It's useless trash . 

[tallnthensome]

24 minutes ago, Corliss said:

I think it is useful to remember that NCL sailed approximately one half of a million people on their 17 ships during the pandemic months of Jan. through March.  Yet there were only a handful of covid cases on 3 ships in total.  And no NCL ship was quarantined. 

 

That is true but that was way back then and pretty much before the start of any of the spread of Covid and few cases. Call it luck but that wouldn’t be the case now with 1.2 million cases in the U.S. I would have felt safer and took my chances sailing then versus now. 

[njhorseman]

31 minutes ago, Corliss said:

fatality rates are now about .66 percent.

Even if true that's about 3 to 6 times the mortality rate for seasonal influenza.

Edited May 6, 2020 by njhorseman

[njhorseman]

37 minutes ago, Corliss said:

Today I pasted a link to the new test developed by our military that can detect the virus one day after infection which is long before symptoms or contagion is present.

That's unproven at this time, per the agency that developed the test. The scientists said more research is needed to determine how quickly it can identify the disease:

https://futurism.com/neoscope/military-test-detects-covid19-before-infectious

 

The test seems to identify cases of COVID-19 about four days sooner than anything else out there, but DARPA scientists told The Guardian that that’s not yet a definite number. Should the FDA authorize the test, they would be able to conduct further research and nail down how soon it can spot the disease.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by njhorseman

[loungelady55]

40 minutes ago, Corliss said:

I think it is useful to remember that NCL sailed approximately one half of a million people on their 17 ships during the pandemic months of Jan. through March.  Yet there were only a handful of covid cases on 3 ships in total.  And no NCL ship was quarantined.  As I have said before their passenger screening and sanitation standards were superior to what you are likely to encounter in every day life.  And to be fair to their competitors on the sea most other ships had no covid either.

 

Is is possible that you will contract covid on an NCL cruise?  Of course it is.  And it is possible you will contract the virus at work, at the grocery store or at your dentist's office.  We are just going to have to live with the virus until it burns itself out.  Some scientists think the virus will burn out by summer.  Here's a link to one of them, though I have read several others recently, too.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/coronavirus-expert-says-the-virus-will-burn-itself-out-in-about-6-months/679415

 

We have developed improved testing that will even allow cruise ships to test passengers prior to boarding.  Today I pasted a link to the new test developed by our military that can detect the virus one day after infection which is long before symptoms or contagion is present.

 

We have developed reasonably good treatments for covid and fatality rates are now about .66 percent.

 

If people don't feel comfortable cruising this year then they shouldn't.  But, I can't wait....:-)

 

Thank you.  

[FaithPlus1]

3 hours ago, jxtgreek said:

Who in their right mind would spend even $1 on a cruise reservation right now?   I booked a cruise next January but only used my cruise next certificates since I would never get anything back on them.  The balance will stay there until the last possible second.  It is hard to trust these cruise lines at the moment.  I also have FCC and Insurance credit from my canceled cruise.  I wish there was a way to get my $$ back but it is what it is.  

 

I'm going to be in the "negative" group here and join you. I've always planned cruises within 2 weeks of the departure because I often have avoided the single supplement or at least had what I'd consider to be good rates for a party of 1 (I'm flexible on where cabins are located). I was really tempted to book Alaskan cruises for July or August (of this year lol) since the rates right now are fairly good. That said, the Canadian ports won't let people in (until at least July 1, but I have a feeling they will expand it). That combined with them possibly becoming bankrupt or with them canceling (I would never want my refund in the form of credit that expires) are keeping me from booking despite the rates. I'm just going to go back to booking 2 weeks out. I figure the cruises that I want will end up costing around the same as booking now. I'm the gambling type, but I don't want to gamble on this. In the scheme of things you probably will end up getting a refund if things get really bad, I just would rather not go through the headache of trying to get a refund (I had issues a couple of years ago with NCL where it had to go through my credit card company to take care of it and it was a long experience). In the end it still might be worth the risk for people, or those who don't mind having to make some calls. I just wouldn't bother right now. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by FaithPlus1

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Charles4515 said:

When Renaissance went bankrupt that cruise line ended but the ships were sold off and used by other cruise lines.

And ironically, half of their 8 ships are now owned by Oceania, which is part of NCLH.  Of course we know that Oceania's founder was the co-CEO of Renaissance and is now the CEO of NCLH.

 

Those ships, about 20 years old now, are outmoded by today's standards, at least for most USA cruisers, and likely wouldn't bring a lot at a bankruptcy auction...even with the millions that have gone into renovating them.

[njhorseman]

4 minutes ago, loungelady55 said:

Thank you.  

You're thanking someone who has posted mostly misinformation. I suggest you read my three replies to that poster.

[Corliss]

22 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

That story was published on February 11, before anyone had enough knowledge about COVID-19 to predict anything.

It's useless trash . 

 

So what a scientist who is considered to be an expert on the coronavirus says is "trash," eh?  

Here is another source for you....hope you don't consider them trash, too.

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/some-experts-predict-coronavirus-could-burn-out-by-summer-but-that-doesnt-mean-it-will-be-gone-for-good/

 

[Corliss]

20 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

That's unproven at this time, per the agency that developed the test. The scientists said more research is needed to determine how quickly it can identify the disease:

https://futurism.com/neoscope/military-test-detects-covid19-before-infectious

 

The test seems to identify cases of COVID-19 about four days sooner than anything else out there, but DARPA scientists told The Guardian that that’s not yet a definite number. Should the FDA authorize the test, they would be able to conduct further research and nail down how soon it can spot the disease.

 

 

NEW MILITARY TEST DETECTS COVID-19 BEFORE IT’S INFECTIOUS

A DARPA SPOKESPERSON CALLED THE TEST "ABSOLUTELY A GAMECHANGER."

 

A new COVID-19 test could be able to tell whether someone’s caught the coronavirus just 24 hours after they were infected — before they even show symptoms or become infectious themselves.

The test came out of DARPA, the U.S. military’s research division, and may be submitted for an accelerated emergency use authorization by the FDA by the end of the week, according to The Guardian.

 

[brovol]

2 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

I am certain that everyone wants NCL to survive, me included , regardless of the caution or negativity. I wonder how much money is left to refund to customers based on cruises already cancelled, future cruises that will will be cancelled, and individual cancellations beyond this year into 2021. How much of that 2 billion will go back to customers owed and how much will be left really for daily operations. They desperately need cash to come in for new bookings/sailings whenever that may start. 

I dont disagree with your concern that these circumstances may lead to a very lengthy delay in refunds being paid.  The refund option, to me, seems a bit more tenuous than the FCC option, in that, with the refund option NCL owes money, and NCL is cash poor right now; whereas, with the FCC option NCL owes a service (the cruise), which, once they have the green light from governments, they are capable of providing, and if the ships are running, at full or less than full capacities, the cost of providing the cruise to the FCC cruisers will be much less than the cost of refunding the full price of a prior cruise.  Moreover, if NCL does file bankruptcy, amounts paid back in refunds may be considered "preferred payments", and if done within a certain period of time prior to the bankruptcy filing would need to be paid back.  Thus, if NCL anticipates filing bankruptcy, it may not make the refund payments at all.  On the other hand, cruises will almost certainly continue as scheduled during bankruptcy proceedings, and because the FCC cruises were actually paid for a year or so in advance, they would be honored. I am not sure how much the quality of the cruise might suffer during bankruptcy, but I am confident the cruise would be provided. 

[Corliss]

12 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

You're thanking someone who has posted mostly misinformation. I suggest you read my three replies to that poster.

 

It's too bad you are not capable of tolerating other people's opinion.  Everything I posted was completely accurate.  But, your response was "trash."  I will now put you on ignore.

[Lupush]

1 hour ago, Charles4515 said:

 

What they see is a lot of ships they can own if NCL fails. They are collateral. If NCL fails those ships will be used by somebody else. The end of NCL does not mean the forever end of the cruise industry. When Renaissance went bankrupt that cruise line ended but the ships were sold off and used by other cruise lines.

 

 

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#1. We don't know what assets were used as collateral in this deal.

#2. Private equity firms, banks, etc. do not want to keep NCL's ships.  They want to get paid back what they lend with the interest and within the terms agreed upon. 

 

There is NO way that any of these creditors just gave NCL 2 billion dollars with the end goal that they'll get paid back in depreciating assets used as collateral.

[njhorseman]

15 minutes ago, Corliss said:

 

So what a scientist who is considered to be an expert on the coronavirus says is "trash," eh?  

Here is another source for you....hope you don't consider them trash, too.

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/some-experts-predict-coronavirus-could-burn-out-by-summer-but-that-doesnt-mean-it-will-be-gone-for-good/

 

That article is from March 3...again before we knew anything much about the disease. We still don't know today how it may play out in the future. again, more trash.

[njhorseman]

18 minutes ago, Corliss said:

NEW MILITARY TEST DETECTS COVID-19 BEFORE IT’S INFECTIOUS

A DARPA SPOKESPERSON CALLED THE TEST "ABSOLUTELY A GAMECHANGER."

 

A new COVID-19 test could be able to tell whether someone’s caught the coronavirus just 24 hours after they were infected — before they even show symptoms or become infectious themselves.

The test came out of DARPA, the U.S. military’s research division, and may be submitted for an accelerated emergency use authorization by the FDA by the end of the week, according to The Guardian.

 

You conveniently failed to quote the important part about  needing more research to determine how soon it can detect the disease...which came from the scientists who developed the test.

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by njhorseman

[luv2kroooz]

4 hours ago, Dar & Bob said:

Well that didn't take long for the negativity 🙂  I guess the glass if half empty for you.

 

It's not negativity, it is truth. I'm not hoping any cruise lines go bankrupt. I hope they all survive. I hope all the ancillary services....porters, food delivery, port agents, economies in the ports of call....survive, too. But if you deny they are fighting for their very survival, then you are fooling yourself. As the poster correctly stated, they are in grave danger.....all of them RCL, CCL, NCL. They're trying to run a business with zero operating revenue....a failed long term model. They've all admitted that reality on multiple prior occasions. Of course we want them to survive, but I wouldnt dismiss facts as negativity.

Edited May 6, 2020 by blcruising

[njhorseman]

16 minutes ago, Corliss said:

 

It's too bad you are not capable of tolerating other people's opinion.  Everything I posted was completely accurate.  But, your response was "trash."  I will now put you on ignore.

You're entitled to your own opinions but you're not entitled to your own set of facts .

 

Outdated, unproven and disproven opinions or statements, even if made with good intentions by experts are not facts. 

 

 You're apparently unable to distinguish opinion from fact...or perhaps it's intentional in order to promote some underlying agenda you have... and evidence of that is your omission of key parts of quotations and using outdated media articles .

 

You can ignore me, but I won't ignore you because your (I suspect intentional) misstatements need to be called out.

[littlelulu01]

3 hours ago, david_sobe said:

This is expected.  Its also fine for them to declare bankruptcy to reorganize debt.  Happens all the time.  

NCL was a very profitable company.  Even if it takes a year for a vaccine there are golden years yet to come.  I still think its going to get worse before it gets better.  I just don't see the amount of travel it takes to take a cruise and have thousands of people crammed together on planes, buses, and cruise ships during a pandemic.  We are seriously going to quarantine ships again?
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result.  IMHO if you cruise during a pandemic you should sign away your first responder rights.  I know that is harsh but why are you putting so many more at risk just because you want a vacation for yourself.  When the ship gets quarantined don't complain how poorly you are treated by the cruise line.  Don't complain how the government and hospitals don't want you.  Don't complain there is nothing to eat on the ship.  Don't complain how NCL wont refund your money.  Don't complain because you are stranded in port.

Its impossible to be with thousands of people who just traveled on planes during a pandemic and not expect several people to infect the ship.  That's not negative.  That is reality.  Cruise lines just took a beating online for discounting the pandemic and encouraging people to cruise. Now we want to go down this road again?

I get what you’re saying but not sure it’s fair to single out the cruise population. Depending on what media and political view we subscribed to way back in January and February - we were either dealing with a common cold/political hoax or an almost certain pandemic unless we started widespread testing  and social distancing.  Cruise lines didn’t do anything different than our government, airlines, and the general public were doing.  They were just easier to identify, single out and blame.  People were inadvertently and unknowingly getting on flights, ships... because they had zero ability to find out if they were contagious/had the virus. 
 

I think the cdc is telling the industry we aren’t willing to start back up with cruises... unless we do make changes.  Passengers and the industry would be insane to just go back to the same way of travel and expect a different outcome. But we also can’t just forget about ever leaving the house.  At some point I want to go back to traveling, flying, cruises... but only if I’m not blatantly risking my own and others lives.  I can see travel happening with viable treatment options to decrease death rates and severity. I can also see it with improvements to ppe and procedures to decrease severity.  A vaccine is a little too far away to wait on reopening the economy if we wish to keep any semblance of life as we now know it. 
 

We all see the protesters out in force, refusing masks and professing their rights yet when they and their children get sick, first responders will risk their life to provide treatment. If we were social distancing and had the ability to get tested when folks on land were sick way back in February We’d not have this excruciating lockdown today.  If.... The what if’s can go on forever but we have what we have and going forward I think the majority of us are willing to make changes to our behavior in order to return to an opening of our economy.  Very few of us are in the camp of, “I can cough on whoever I want and be dammed if I’ll ever social distance or wear a mask...“ Very few of us are ready to stand toe to toe for the sexy legs contest at the ship pool, Florida  beach. But we’re also not ok sheltered in place for a year. 
 

I have a Disneyworld vacation with my dvc points and flights Booked for this summer.   I’d say there’s a less than 10% chance I’m going. It’s still fun to think about.  I’m not spewing anger towards Disney for allowing folks to plan vacations that might not happen. Same with cruises.  Had I taken the cruise back in March I would have spent the $.  In my mind that was money already spent.  For me, taking that already spent $ and placing it on a couple different really nice Haven suites at prices I felt reasonable was a fun decision.  If I get to Disney World this year but it’s vastly different than previous visits I’m ok with that as long as I’m reasonably safe.   Same with cruises I’m booked on for next year. Tsa lines and flying actually scare me more than getting on a ship. 

[seaman11]

1 hour ago, Corliss said:

 

So what a scientist who is considered to be an expert on the coronavirus says is "trash," eh?  

Here is another source for you....hope you don't consider them trash, too.

https://khn.org/morning-breakout/some-experts-predict-coronavirus-could-burn-out-by-summer-but-that-doesnt-mean-it-will-be-gone-for-good/

 

scientists? bhaaaa we should all listen to a pessimistic farmer from south jersey.