2021 transatlantic fares much higher and too many uncertanties

[carlmm]

9 hours ago, resistk said:

 

.. I think this is all posturing by the cruise lines until they get a vaccine that works.  ...

CLIA really needs to give all this serious thought and not just rush to cruise on July 31 with the pandemic still going on.  The Spanish Flu in 1918 apparently spread via troop transports.

 Do you know what? 

Even now there is no vaccine against the Spanish Flu.

So have we all spend the last 100 years in confinement? No cruise? Social distancing? Destroyed our economy and society?

 

Even the plague stills kills people every year.

There is no working vaccine agaist tubercolosis. 

Roughly one million people die each year from HIV - no vaccine.

 

Great, if we find a vaccine but it is quite possible we will never or not for a very long time.

In all it's history humans finally continued with life what ever illness struck.

[resistk]

59 minutes ago, carlmm said:

Great, if we find a vaccine but it is quite possible we will never or not for a very long time.

In all it's history humans finally continued with life what ever illness struck.

 

What I am saying is that the media would be all over the next COVID outbreak on a cruise ship.  The cruise line involved would be subject to massive bad publicity and cruising in general harmed.  The industry has expanded and expanded based on the assumption more and more people will cruise if the price is right.  But post COVID many people will stay away from cruises in the short term (just like restaurants, hotels, and airplanes) and more bad publicity will complicate matters and further delay any recovery.  While some people may shrug it all off, they are not in the majority and in fact are behaving horribly irresponsibly as the increased COVID cases in the US now show.  Someone going on a cruise and bringing COVID back could be a death sentence for any elderly or invalid persons in their household or family.  The UK tabloid press in particular would likely be all over Cunard if this happened on a transatlantic.

Edited June 18, 2020 by resistk

[princeton123211]

21 minutes ago, resistk said:

Someone going on a cruise and bringing COVID back could be a death sentence for any elderly or invalid persons in their household or family.

This is also at the heart of it-- not so much bringing it home but the spread that can happen on board a ship to an at risk population. The majority of cruisers are older and a good portion of them are either immunocompromised or in higher risk categories. If these ships were being filled with a majority of healthy, active 30,40 year olds-- might not be as big of an issue. But they're not. 

 

It's been shown the the virus spreads quickly. These ships' medical facilities are not equipped to handle more than a handful of passengers/crew at a time with none of the equipment required to try and stabilize someone with severe symptoms. Could you imagine if the QM2 had an outbreak of 30-40 cases in mid Atlantic? You cant medivac that many people effectively. 

 

Hotels/restaurants landside are in a different situation-- if someone gets sick, there are hospitals for them to go to. Not so on a ship. Theres no way that any major cruise line is going to ramp up operations given that outlook until there is some effective therapeutic or vaccine. 

[Ray66]

On the When Will You Cruise Again thread, I posted Costa's pdf with  recommendations if someone becomes ill on a cruise:

on board, there is a medical center equipped with the most advanced health equipment to deal with any emergency that may occur during the cruise. >The center has a dedicated and isolated area for suspected Covid-19 cases and has all the medical equipment necessary to perform diagnostic swab screening tests to ascertain whether the Sars-Cov-2 virus is present or not, in addition to being supplied with medication to treat guests who present particular symptoms.>Costa has enhanced its information network with regard to the prevention and management of possible Covid-19 cases by stipulating specific agreements with ground-based diagnostic labs in the destinations we will be visiting.

If a guest experiences symptoms similar to Covid-19, he/she will be immediately transferred to a dedicated area and isolated in the Medical Center on board the ship; subsequently he/she will be moved to quarantine in specifically equipped cabins with balconies. Also, those who have been in close and direct contact with any symptomatic subjects, will be treated in the Medical Center and, if necessary, isolated in dedicated cabins.

 

http://www.sailcosta.com/8115_Safety/8115.03_FAQs.pdf

Edited June 18, 2020 by Ray66

[resistk]

1 hour ago, Ray66 said:

On the When Will You Cruise Again thread, I posted Costa's pdf with  recommendations if someone becomes ill on a cruise:

 

Costa's past record in passenger safety is less than stellar IMO.

[resistk]

It costs about $200 these days to get a fast COVID test at the airport and results in a few hours - seems having one of those required within 48 hours of boarding is a no brainer?

[princeton123211]

3 hours ago, Ray66 said:

On the When Will You Cruise Again thread, I posted Costa's pdf with  recommendations if someone becomes ill on a cruise:

Sounds fine on paper but the proof is in the pudding-- if the major lines thought this was going to cut it they would be sailing already. They don't and they aren't.

 

Lines like Cunard don't think it possibly could until November. Costa says July-- extremely wishful thinking. Even if they do there is going to be a very narrow segment of the cruising public that will be willing to. 

[Eric2005]

I think most people here know deep down that cruising is over for some time.  They just don't want to admit it.  Even the cruise lines are in denial.  There has never been a vaccine for a Corona Virus and even if there is one within a year or so, I personally am not eager to be one of the first to try it.  It will have been rushed into production and risky.   

[navybankerteacher]

9 hours ago, resistk said:

It costs about $200 these days to get a fast COVID test at the airport and results in a few hours - seems having one of those required within 48 hours of boarding is a no brainer?

When you have many people who refuse to spend about $100 on a passport, how likely are they to be interested in spending $200 on a test with zero residual value.  

[navybankerteacher]

3 hours ago, Eric2005 said:

I think most people here know deep down that cruising is over for some time.  They just don't want to admit it.  Even the cruise lines are in denial.  There has never been a vaccine for a Corona Virus and even if there is one within a year or so, I personally am not eager to be one of the first to try it.  It will have been rushed into production and risky.   

Are you aware of the number of early August sailings which are reported to be sold out? I believe that people who think must realize that cruising has a long way to go before things are back to normal — but, then, not everyone takes time to think.

[IB2]

Carnival shares slumped yesterday after the firm announced it was seeking to sell a further six ships (not named) at written down valuations, and analysts Berenberg predicted cruising won't return to a full schedule before 2022.

[princeton123211]

7 hours ago, IB2 said:

Carnival shares slumped yesterday after the firm announced it was seeking to sell a further six ships (not named) at written down valuations

It would be nice if they could sell them, but there are now second or third tier market buyers. Those ships are most likely headed to a beach in India for scrap with a whole bunch of others most likely right behind them. Companies like Carnival and RCCL need to reduce capacity across most brands and do it quickly. Most of the ships that are retired from these companies, in this environment, will not be sold for further trading. 

[bluemarble]

On 6/17/2020 at 9:13 PM, resistk said:

... CLIA really needs to give all this serious thought and not just rush to cruise on July 31 ...

 

Earlier today the CLIA announced the further suspension of all sailings from US ports until September 15th. This doesn't effect Cunard at this point since they've already cancelled voyages into November. But it does put to rest Carnival's plans to resume some sailings August 1st. The announcement can be found on many news services. Here's a link to Cruise Critic's article about the announcement.

 

CLIA Suspends Sailings From U.S. Ports Until September 15

[Eric2005]

It amazes me how unrealistic people can be.  Do they think this virus is just going to vanish?  And even if ships sail, are passengers going to enjoy wearing masks all day long and 'social distancing'?  I originally posted about Cunard and I'm only interested in transatlantic voyages.  What I most like on Queen Mary 2 is the traditional style, dinners at a set hour with the same table mates, the lectures, classical concerts and the general quiet of the ship.   How can Cunard continue with group tables under these conditions?  How are they going to attract quality speakers willing to sail?  About all that they will be able to maintain is the quiet.  The situation is hopeless.  You just can't assemble large groups of people any more.  Let's just hope that Cunard can survive this crisis.  

[Germancruiser]

I do not see things that gloomy. I might be a bit overoptimistic- but for me the glas always was half full....! Step by step we all - all around the world adapt to the new " normal".

Nobody enjoys wearing masks in our daily lives- but we wear them nonetheless!

Nobody likes to keep up with social distancing- but we cope as best as we can.

Even quality speakers are doing their jobs for money, so i presume some are right eager to go back and holding lectures.

When crusing restarts that also will be under " new normal" circumstances.

Some European states gradualy go back to reopen borders, gatherings with more people are coming up..!

If the Transatlantic on board QM2 is a go on Dec. 1 I am on it! With or without mask- even if I can´t go ashore in New York. In that case the ship is the destination.

[Eric2005]

Some people may be willing to pay 25% more to wear masks and sit alone or with their travel companion in a dining room and possibly be rushed through dinner because they need three sittings in order to observe social distancing; others will prefer to wait it out until a real normal returns, not a "new normal' which is a euphemism for an unpleasant way of life.  And then there is the risk of a shipboard infection, a quarantine and a repetition of what happened to the Diamond Princess and other ships.  Time will tell how much people are willing to put up with.  

[IB2]

On 6/19/2020 at 4:05 PM, princeton123211 said:

It would be nice if they could sell them, but there are now second or third tier market buyers. Those ships are most likely headed to a beach in India for scrap with a whole bunch of others most likely right behind them. Companies like Carnival and RCCL need to reduce capacity across most brands and do it quickly. Most of the ships that are retired from these companies, in this environment, will not be sold for further trading. 

I believe the current disposals aren’t intended as retirements but as sale and leaseback deals, to raise urgent cash to try and see the company through the crisis.  Obviously this means that in future the company would be operating ships it doesn’t physically own, increasing its costs with the leading charges, which we can expect to feed through to cruise prices.

Edited June 22, 2020 by IB2

[princeton123211]

5 hours ago, IB2 said:

I believe the current disposals aren’t intended as retirements but as sale and leaseback deals, to raise urgent cash to try and see the company through the crisis.

They said flat out a lot of them were going for scrap. 

[IB2]

5 hours ago, princeton123211 said:

They said flat out a lot of them were going for scrap. 

Yes, sorry, I see you are right - the latest six are described as accelerated disposals.

[princeton123211]

5 minutes ago, IB2 said:

Yes, sorry, I see you are right - the latest six are described as accelerated disposals.

I think Cunard is fairly safe from this-- the only older ship, and by that I mean at mid life expectancy, is QM2 and that just seems inconceivable given her building costs and fame. Queen Victoria and Elizabeth are too new but I guess could be repurposed to another brand in the greater Carnival Corp fleet if they had to. 

 

Out of Carnival Cruises ships-- I have to imagine a few of the Fantasy Class are headed for the scrap heap but I don't think all of them are. They'll need a few smaller ships coming out of this. Thats the biggest problem I think that companies like Carnival have right now-- their newest ships are their largest ships. And these large ships are going to be the most problematic to fill and to keep people safe on. 

 

Holland America the obvious candidates are Maasdam and Veendam. Costa NeoRomantica and Victoria would be obvious candidates. P&O early retirement for Aurora? You could make a claim for most of the P&O Australia fleet based on age. Sun and Sea Princess or possibly the beginning of the end of the Grand Class? 

 

I would guess that all of Seabourn is safe given the relative younger age of their ships and the fact that the first cruising to come back will most likely be on small, luxury ships like theirs.