Webinar with Brian Kelly (The Points Guy) and CEO Arnold Donald

[Honolulu Blue]

I'm surprised there isn't a thread on this already, so I'll start one.

 

There was a webinar with The Points Guy Brian Kelly asking questions of Arnold Donald.  I found it intriguing.  It lasted about an hour and can be found at https://thepointsguy.com/news/future-of-travel-webinar-cruises-carnival-ceo/ .

 

I'll summarize some of the major points I found interesting:

 

• Mr. Donald mentioned that he didn't know when cruising would return.  He didn't mention any specific dates for it.
• He was encouraged by the attempts at social gatherings in New Zealand, China and Europe
• Depending on when they sail, the rules they have to follow, and the social norms of the places they sail, the onboard experience could be altered in many different ways
• He mentioned that one change could be four (shorter) shows a night instead of two
• He also mentioned the "M" word - crew would likely have them if they were to sail soon; for guests, it would depend on what they have to do and what's being done around them
• In an ideal world, he'd like quick, easy, and accurate COVID-19 tests.  He'd like good therapies and vaccines too, but he realized those would only come some time down the road.
• He said that there was no indication of significant transmission through circulated air spread
• He noted that it was important that guests visit a mix of private islands/destinations and other ports, in part to help their economies
• He said that lots of guests love the Fantasy class ships and they have been kept fresh through the years
• That said, he said there would be an acceleration in the retirement of ships
• He said it would be "highly probable" that some would be scrapped (no details of which ones or when)
• There will definitely be delays in the first sailings of their new ships.  The Enchanted Princess, P&O Iona, and Mardi Gras were mentioned by name.
• Not all ships will start at the same time; it will take time to get to the cruising level where it was before
• He said not to count on a lot of cruising deals when sailing starts again.  It's just his opinion, but the gradual ramp up of ships, limited capacity, and pent up demand would seem to offer no room for deals.  
• Also his opinion, but he says to take advantage of the deals that are already out there
• He wasn't worried about bankruptcy for any of his firms or any of the bigger competing cruise lines
• Mr. Donald's favorite cruise was one he took to Antarctica on Seabourn.  
• He's been invited to lots of places by lots of people to take his next cruise where they are.  No decision on that has been made.  He noted that there are many great places in the world to go.
• He indicated a desire not to cancel cruises too far out, in case things change in a favorable direction
• He said there could be some itinerary modifications on cruises with ports that definitely will not be ready when they are
• He apologized for all the refunds taking so long.  They didn't expect THIS to happen, so they weren't prepared.  He said they were catching up.

 

Some of this stuff isn't new if you've been following Mr. Donald's other interviews over the past two months, but some of it is - at least to me.

[Honolulu Blue]

Gene Sloan has an article at The Points Guy that also summarizes the webinar.  I didn't see many points in it that didn't mirror what I already said in my summary above, but it does have actual quotes from Mr. Donald.

 

The article as at https://thepointsguy.com/news/carnival-ceo-arnold-donald-interview/ and also includes a link to the video call.

[xDisconnections]

2 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

• He said that lots of guests love the Fantasy class ships and they have been kept fresh through the years
• That said, he said there would be an acceleration in the retirement of ships

Some of us beg to differ regarding the condition of Fantasy class ships and look forward to welcoming the accelerated retirement of ships as noted in the webinar. The brand has to keep moving forward.

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by xDisconnections

[Don Kehote]

4 hours ago, xDisconnections said:

Some of us beg to differ regarding the condition of Fantasy class ships and look forward to welcoming the accelerated retirement of ships as noted in the webinar. The brand has to keep moving forward.

Good lord, when is that picture from?  We were on Paradise a couple of years ago, and it looked immaculate compared to that shot of Ecstasy, I think it is?

[xDisconnections]

4 minutes ago, Don Kehote said:

Good lord, when is that picture from?  We were on Paradise a couple of years ago, and it looked immaculate compared to that shot of Ecstasy, I think it is?

It’s recent.

Edited June 16, 2020 by xDisconnections

[BlerkOne]

Carnival got suckered by purchasing a type of paint that was supposed to last longer, but instead seems to accelerate rusting and deterioration. Likely one of the reasons so many dry docks are/were scheduled over the next few years. Ecstasy was last in dry dock October 2019.

 

 

[Lem_On_Ade]

Thank you for this! It pretty much confirms my thinking that my 10/31 cruise on the Fantasy won’t be happening. I’m not terribly upset about it though, I’ve got my eye on a cruise in 2022 (hopefully we’ll be cruising again by then).


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[siestakeys04]

Well it’s possible my Dec 12 Mardi Gras could be cancelled give me the FCC and I will rebook for next July 

[Organized Chaos]

If you'd like to skip the political mumbo jumbo at the beginning, skip to about 11:30.

 

 

 

9 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

 

• Mr. Donald mentioned that he didn't know when cruising would return.  He didn't mention any specific dates for it.

 

There's something I'd like to add that I think is highly relevant. He said it was a regulatory matter and that he learned a long time ago not to try to forecast regulatory dates. He goes on to speak about seeing when people are comfortable with social gatherings. Well, whether August happens or not, bookings are going very well for August. He said that in the past. So cruisers, at least, are ready to gather and he obviously knows that after seeing Aug. bookings go through the roof. By bringing up that it's a regulatory matter first, I think that says a lot about where he stands. I get the impression that they're ready to go, but pretty much the only thing stopping them are the regulatory bodies (ex. CDC).

 

In another point, he said,

• "The science and the medicine is progressing very rapidly. And in a matter of weeks, I think, more than months, we're gonna have a lot more knowledge so we can develop protocols and regiments that mitigate the risk of spread."

 

I find that very telling as well. Because of the rapid progression of the science, he believes cruising can be made safe within a matter of weeks rather than months. Obviously he doesn't mean two weeks from now, or even a month. But the outlook for August doesn't seem so bleak (depending on those regulatory bodies, of course). Even if it's not by Aug., then we still probably don't have to wait until 2021.

 

Of course, none of this is definitive, but at least it provides a more optimistic point of view.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Organized Chaos

[BlerkOne]

Personally I love Fantasy class ships (and other class ships), and looking forward to a fantasy cruise to Cuba on one ASAP!

[NightOne]

On 6/16/2020 at 10:52 AM, Honolulu Blue said:

I'm surprised there isn't a thread on this already, so I'll start one.

 

There was a webinar with The Points Guy Brian Kelly asking questions of Arnold Donald.  I found it intriguing.  It lasted about an hour and can be found at https://thepointsguy.com/news/future-of-travel-webinar-cruises-carnival-ceo/ .

 

I'll summarize some of the major points I found interesting:

 

 

• That said, he said there would be an acceleration in the retirement of ships
• He said it would be "highly probable" that some would be scrapped (no details of which ones or when)

 

• There will definitely be delays in the first sailings of their new ships.  The Enchanted Princess, P&O Iona, and Mardi Gras were mentioned by name.

 

 

• He wasn't worried about bankruptcy for any of his firms or any of the bigger competing cruise lines

 

 

 

Thank you for posting the major points. I watched this last night.

 

1. He talked about the retirement of ships right after Brian asked about Fantasy class ships so it can be implied that his response was directly regarding those ships. However, with 100 ships in the fleet across 9 brands it wasn't certain that it was directed at the Fantasy class ships. Interesting that he said the retired ships would not be going to secondary or tertiary markets but rather straight to the scrapyards. Maybe this is because he expects demand for used cruise ships to be low and thus the bare metal is worth more.

 

2. I interpreted this as Mardis Gras is definitely going to be delayed again. I believe he said that even though the shipyards in Finland were up and running there were still supplier issues that would cause the further delay. I was surprised that no one else seems to be running with this part of the story because it sounded like a confirmation that it won't sell as scheduled. I wrote John Heald and ask him about it but he said everything is on schedule still. I suspect they haven't told him yet. I fully expect them to announce the delay to those booked on the early sailings within the next few weeks.

 

3. At around 44 minutes when he was talking about the financial situation and no revenue he said that they had a "runway" that takes them into November and potentially beyond with no revenue. For some reason I thought I had heard they had financing in place to take them deep into 2021. This is the 1st I recall hearing of November. 

 

So my big take away is that we won't see cruising until things like movie theaters, concerts, sporting events, etc. open back up in a manner where social distancing is not that huge a deal. Does that happen 60 days from now? 90 days? 180 days? I have no clue.

 

My other big take away is that Mardis Gras is definitely delayed again.

 

[Thorncroft]

Ecstasy looks  rough.  Wow! 

[xDisconnections]

3 hours ago, NightOne said:

 

Thank you for posting the major points. I watched this last night.

 

1. He talked about the retirement of ships right after Brian asked about Fantasy class ships so it can be implied that his response was directly regarding those ships. However, with 100 ships in the fleet across 9 brands it wasn't certain that it was directed at the Fantasy class ships. Interesting that he said the retired ships would not be going to secondary or tertiary markets but rather straight to the scrapyards. Maybe this is because he expects demand for used cruise ships to be low and thus the bare metal is worth more.

 

2. I interpreted this as Mardis Gras is definitely going to be delayed again. I believe he said that even though the shipyards in Finland were up and running there were still supplier issues that would cause the further delay. I was surprised that no one else seems to be running with this part of the story because it sounded like a confirmation that it won't sell as scheduled. I wrote John Heald and ask him about it but he said everything is on schedule still. I suspect they haven't told him yet. I fully expect them to announce the delay to those booked on the early sailings within the next few weeks.

 

3. At around 44 minutes when he was talking about the financial situation and no revenue he said that they had a "runway" that takes them into November and potentially beyond with no revenue. For some reason I thought I had heard they had financing in place to take them deep into 2021. This is the 1st I recall hearing of November. 

 

So my big take away is that we won't see cruising until things like movie theaters, concerts, sporting events, etc. open back up in a manner where social distancing is not that huge a deal. Does that happen 60 days from now? 90 days? 180 days? I have no clue.

 

My other big take away is that Mardis Gras is definitely delayed again.

 

1. It's likely that some ships would be going straight to the scrapyard as Carnival previously explored selling certain Fantasy class ships. After being listed for several years, there has still yet to be a buyer. With the impacts to the cruising industry, the probability of finding a buyer is even lower.

 

 

[ARcruisin2]

22 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Carnival got suckered by purchasing a type of paint that was supposed to last longer, but instead seems to accelerate rusting and deterioration. Likely one of the reasons so many dry docks are/were scheduled over the next few years. Ecstasy was last in dry dock October 2019.

 

 

that pic above was shocking! And definitely won't help sell their cruises as an adventure on a well maintained vessel.

Hopefully they are able to take advantage of this down time and address this issue on all impacted ships....unless they intend to just scrap them, which I was shocked to hear in the interview. 

 

anybody want to start a go-fund me to buy a cruise ship?

[Organized Chaos]

5 hours ago, NightOne said:

3. At around 44 minutes when he was talking about the financial situation and no revenue he said that they had a "runway" that takes them into November and potentially beyond with no revenue. For some reason I thought I had heard they had financing in place to take them deep into 2021. This is the 1st I recall hearing of November.

 

They had secured financing not too long after the shutdown began. I remember seeing a video back in April where he said they were financially prepared to last until the end of the year if necessary. Now he's saying November, but it's still close to his April statement. In his interview with Port Hole Magazine, the question of govt. bailouts was brought up and he said they had secured all their loans through the private sector, not from any bailouts, but he never gave a timeframe as to how long they could last.

[Organized Chaos]

There was a thread about the rusty ships earlier this year and someone had posted the quote from JH about the supposed faulty paint. I'm by no means a marine paint expert, but it sure sounded like an excuse to hide the fact that they weren't keeping up on maintenance as well as they should. For what it's worth, CC user chengkp75 didn't believe their explanation to be entirely true either. Here's a link to his comment about it if anyone's interested. https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2733423-carnival-ship-maintenance/?tab=comments#comment-59381193

[Organized Chaos]

There's a lot of discussion about Carnival continuing to take bookings during this time. Not just for Aug. and beyond, but in the past few months as well. Some accusing them of taking bookings for cruises they know will be cancelled. So here's something Donald said that's relevant to that discussion:

 

• We're not anxious to cancel far out, because this thing is evolving and changing so rapidly. I think you may see additional cancellations where, even though a company may think they're going to cruise in that period, they have already determined a particular itinerary is unlikely and they'll have to modify a particular itinerary substantially. So you may begin to see some cancellations with that kind of dynamic.

Basically, they don't want to shoot themselves in the foot by cancelling cruises that could possibly happen because this whole mess changes rapidly. I agree with him. Also, when this thing gets going again, it looks like we could see itinerary changes being made to help prevent complete cancellations. For many, I'm sure they'd rather see a changed itinerary than to have their cruise cancelled altogether. But I think it's important that Carnival emphasizes this possibility, because there will be those who complain about itinerary changes, too.

 

I like that he repeated talked about the fast-changing nature of this pandemic. That tells me they recognize that things will most likely be quite different come this fall, and that they can't necessarily make decisions about what happens two months from now based on today's information.

 

I also appreciate that he repeatedly mentioned basing their decisions on the science. So many ideas and opinions out in the public are based on raw emotion, and a lot of that comes from politicians and media outlets that are stoking that fire. I get the impression that he was conveying the message that Carnival will take steps based on the science and the best advice from health experts. Kudos to them.

[pc_load_letter]

22 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Personally I love Fantasy class ships (and other class ships), and looking forward to a fantasy cruise to Cuba on one ASAP!

 

The wife and I do to. We love taking 3 and 4 day cruises on Imagination and Inspiration out of Long Beach several times a year. Those cruises are always full and were just refurbished.

 

I highly doubt they will be retired in less than five years.

[BlerkOne]

4 hours ago, Organized Chaos said:

There was a thread about the rusty ships earlier this year and someone had posted the quote from JH about the supposed faulty paint. I'm by no means a marine paint expert, but it sure sounded like an excuse to hide the fact that they weren't keeping up on maintenance as well as they should. For what it's worth, CC user chengkp75 didn't believe their explanation to be entirely true either. Here's a link to his comment about it if anyone's interested. https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2733423-carnival-ship-maintenance/?tab=comments#comment-59381193

 

Perhaps he can revisit - he was referring to a balcony or two and not an entire ship.

[Organized Chaos]

34 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Perhaps he can revisit - he was referring to a balcony or two and not an entire ship.

 

He referenced the balcony as an example of the process to clean & paint. And he did speak of entire ships. He said that paint wouldn't have been exclusive to Carnival. The problems would've been shared across many other lines. At the time, he wasn't aware of any "published, across the board problems." He can rehash the issue if he wants. Since the faulty paint excuse was brought up again, I just thought his comment was relevant since many on here value his input. Even if it was bad paint, they still didn't maintain it as well as they should have over the years.

[BlerkOne]

25 minutes ago, Organized Chaos said:

 

He referenced the balcony as an example of the process to clean & paint. And he did speak of entire ships. He said that paint wouldn't have been exclusive to Carnival. The problems would've been shared across many other lines. At the time, he wasn't aware of any "published, across the board problems." He can rehash the issue if he wants. Since the faulty paint excuse was brought up again, I just thought his comment was relevant since many on here value his input. Even if it was bad paint, they still didn't maintain it as well as they should have over the years.

 

He also said he wasn't a paint expert. The ship had been in dry dock 10/05/19 - 10/16/19. Prior to Covid-19, Carnival had a $2 billion dry dock and refurbishment plan in work. I reject any suggestion that there is/was a systemic Carnival maintenance issue.

[ARcruisin2]

One thing that was concerning health wise to me, was his response when asked about air filtration.

He talked about conflicting reports as to whether that was actually a concern for spreading the virus.

Knowing that it probably isn't feasible to update older ships with fresh air to each room systems... I would have liked to hear they were looking into something to upgrade filtration.

[chipmaster]

14 minutes ago, ARcruisin2 said:

One thing that was concerning health wise to me, was his response when asked about air filtration.

He talked about conflicting reports as to whether that was actually a concern for spreading the virus.

Knowing that it probably isn't feasible to update older ships with fresh air to each room systems... I would have liked to hear they were looking into something to upgrade filtration.

 

The best filtration starts with the people breathing.  We've already seen in many far eastern countries that people standing inch's from each other in places with recirculated air have had minimum explosion of the virus cases.    

 

In cabin the only person in it is you, virus going with the air from another room will travel far further and diluted by cube / power law.  Yes there was/is the case of the China restaruant to consider.   I still say wear a mask a good N95 w/o filter is the way to go, we already see how just cheapo mask work

 

Sadly some cultures continue to debate masks, the first point of filtration, you filter it there things change by orders of magnitude given the physics.  

Edited June 19, 2020 by chipmaster

[declansdad]

On 6/16/2020 at 3:29 PM, xDisconnections said:

Some of us beg to differ regarding the condition of Fantasy class ships and look forward to welcoming the accelerated retirement of ships as noted in the webinar. The brand has to keep moving forward.

 

 

 

 

He didn't say they would accelerate the retirement of the Fantasy class ships. That would seem to fly in the face of his comment about how popular they are.

[TigerGalCruiser]

Great update and Cliff Notes. Thanks so much for this!

 

I'm not terribly upset about the possible retirement of the Fantasy class ships. Although I loved the Elation, I sailed on the Fantasy last summer and definitely missed some of the newer amenities. I know my kiddos would be bummed to be on a Fantasy class after sailing on the Dream and Vista class ships (they didn't cruise with us on the Fantasy last summer). 

 

All of this is so fluid. We decided to rebook for next summer on the Mardi Gras. I'll be very interested to see what the actual sail date is for the Mardi Gras.