Carnival and the Numbers Game

[Stick93]

7 hours ago, SeaShark said:

 

I realize you are in agreement. I'm trying to point out (to everyone) that economics doesn't occur in a vacuum. You have to consider the big picture. If I don't spend X on a cruise, then I'm able to spend X on something else...it isn't a "loss", but a shift in economic activity. Sure...it might be a loss strictly in the cruise line vacuum, but it will be a gain somewhere else.

 

I didn't go on three cruises this year, so instead I got a new deck for my home. The cruise line missed out on my money, but the contractor and the lumber yard did not.

Enjoy your deck - my three cruises may turn into a hot tub and some other stuff!

[Stick93]

6 hours ago, jakeT said:

With Carnival older ship what only can hold a little over two thousand people. Going out with 50% of the people.   This ship can not make money.  Exceptionally when there ticket. Prices are low.   Nobody going to pay high ticket prices for. A junk ship 

If the product is good - people will pay. There is a market for everything especially if the other ships also sail half full and then the prices will be much much higher for everything. If you think you will get on the Mardi Gras for a good deal when it leaves half full - I doubt that will happen as well. 

[Lottacruises]

12 hours ago, richfret said:

Well you certainly got me there!  On the other hand, their meals are better.  You get more to eat.  There is more variety.  It's already paid for.  No lines.  Meet other cruisers.  Eat when you want.  Some times table clothes. 

 

As you can see, I am trying to save face. 

 

People still eat, but the way they eat change. Grocery stores are hiring, restaurants are closing. One example of many changes, but yes people still eat. 

[Organized Chaos]

11 hours ago, Roger88 said:

People are planning to "save" during traveling will not enjoy their trip believe me. If you have taken with you a certain amount of money you should spend it all and enjoy your cruise. If you will constantly think of how much you are spending, you will not enjoy your trip. 

 

Maybe I"m misunderstanding you, but how other are able to enjoy their trips isn't up to you to determine. Your criteria for enjoying your own vacations doesn't apply to everyone. We always try to save where we can during traveling, and are usually successful at it, and we still enjoy our trip. No, we don't always spend all the money we take, but again, still enjoy ourselves. And yes, we pay attention to how much we spend, and still enjoy our vacations. This isn't a unique concept, we're definitely not alone in feeling this way. Millions of people like this.

[Organized Chaos]

10 hours ago, SeaShark said:

 

I realize you are in agreement. I'm trying to point out (to everyone) that economics doesn't occur in a vacuum. You have to consider the big picture. If I don't spend X on a cruise, then I'm able to spend X on something else...it isn't a "loss", but a shift in economic activity. Sure...it might be a loss strictly in the cruise line vacuum, but it will be a gain somewhere else.

 

I didn't go on three cruises this year, so instead I got a new deck for my home. The cruise line missed out on my money, but the contractor and the lumber yard did not.

 

If people are going to spend, let's say, $2,000 on a cruise, and that cruise is cancelled, not all of them are going to turn around and pump that $2,000 into the economy elsewhere. And part of what the OP was talking about is the money that Carnival contributes to the economy. Without the cruise lines operating, the local economies they interact with on a regular basis take a huge hit. Especially ports of calls. There's no denying that. There is loss.

[drsel]

What about the 3 trillion dollars pumped into the US economy by the US government

[RWolver672]

Most of the people responding to this post talked about the food industry.  There are a lot more affected by the cruise lines not sailing than food consumption.

 

Fewer people flying to the ports. Fewer people driving to the ports meaning less fuel used.  Fewer people using Uber or another mode of getting to the port.  Fewer people staying in hotels and motels before and after the cruise.  Fewer shoppers in the departure ports and ports of call. The list goes on and on.  It's a domino effect.  Unemployment raises dramatically.

[drsel]

But money is not being destroyed. Nor does it disappear into thin air.

someone's loss is someone else's profit.

 

Billions of dollars of no income for the Cruise lines, ports, airlines, hotels, Uber, taxis, malls, shops, etc means billions of dollars extra in the pockets of all of us.

 

 

[buckeyefrank]

1 hour ago, drsel said:

But money is not being destroyed. Nor does it disappear into thin air.

someone's loss is someone else's profit.

 

Billions of dollars of no income for the Cruise lines, ports, airlines, hotels, Uber, taxis, malls, shops, etc means billions of dollars extra in the pockets of all of us.

 

 

Actually it kind of does appear / disappear.  There is no specific amount of money that exists in the US or in the world for that matter.  It continues to change on a daily basis on bank activity, world financial brokers, Federal Reserve Board, stock market price fluctuations, etc.  When one hears of the economy shrinking or expanding, that basically means the amount of money in the system is getting bigger or larger.  If we were on the gold standard, there would be a set amount of money in the country.

 

 

[devinc]

2 hours ago, RWolver672 said:

Most of the people responding to this post talked about the food industry.  There are a lot more affected by the cruise lines not sailing than food consumption.

 

Fewer people flying to the ports. Fewer people driving to the ports meaning less fuel used.  Fewer people using Uber or another mode of getting to the port.  Fewer people staying in hotels and motels before and after the cruise.  Fewer shoppers in the departure ports and ports of call. The list goes on and on.  It's a domino effect.  Unemployment raises dramatically.

 

I cannot imagine the loss of revenue in Galveston this year.  The business of, and employees at hotels, restaurants,  parking lots, porters, piers and on and on.  

How does the city make up for the lost tax dollars?  Big domino...

[RWolver672]

1 hour ago, drsel said:

But money is not being destroyed. Nor does it disappear into thin air.

someone's loss is someone else's profit.

 

Billions of dollars of no income for the Cruise lines, ports, airlines, hotels, Uber, taxis, malls, shops, etc means billions of dollars extra in the pockets of all of us.

 

 

 

But think of all of the people that have lost their income.  Their money disappeared into thin air.  I don't consider not being able to take a cruise a a profit.  Profit is when you make more than you normally do.  Not when you spend less than you normally do.  That's call savings.

 

[SeaShark]

9 hours ago, Organized Chaos said:

 

If people are going to spend, let's say, $2,000 on a cruise, and that cruise is cancelled, not all of them are going to turn around and pump that $2,000 into the economy elsewhere. And part of what the OP was talking about is the money that Carnival contributes to the economy. Without the cruise lines operating, the local economies they interact with on a regular basis take a huge hit. Especially ports of calls. There's no denying that. There is loss.

 

Perfect example of what I'm talking about...you are narrowing your focus to the affect on the local economies, not looking at the big overall picture. Once again, economics doesn't occur in a vacuum.

[drsel]

  But think of all of the people that have lost their income.  Their money disappeared into thin air.  I don't consider not being able to take a cruise a a profit.  Profit is when you make more than you normally do.  Not when you spend less than you normally do.  That's call savings.

 

 

Yes, I meant billions of dollars saved for all Cruisers (in their bank accounts). 

You are right in saying that the counterparties I mentioned (cruise lines, ports, hotels, Uber, taxis, malls, shops, and all the employees of these) have lost their income

 

 

 

[drsel]

I just think that they cannot control the virus.
It's out of their hands and out of control

[sanger727]

On 6/21/2020 at 11:00 AM, Roger88 said:

People are planning to "save" during traveling will not enjoy their trip believe me. If you have taken with you a certain amount of money you should spend it all and enjoy your cruise. If you will constantly think of how much you are spending, you will not enjoy your trip. 

 

What did this have to do with my post??

[Organized Chaos]

8 hours ago, SeaShark said:

Perfect example of what I'm talking about...you are narrowing your focus to the affect on the local economies, not looking at the big overall picture. Once again, economics doesn't occur in a vacuum.

 

You're dang right I'm narrowing my focus. You can't only think of the national economy, as important as it is. State economies can be hurt by the loss of an industry. Local economies can be hurt, or even devastated (short or long term) by such a loss. You can keep repeating a phrase about an economic vacuum, but that doesn't make it untrue. You can't just say, "Oh, the national economy (the 'overall picture') would do just fine, so it's no big deal." Tell that to the thousands, if not millions, of people of the local economies (in this country and the ports of call) who are deeply affected by the cruise shutdown. Again, the loss is undeniable. I can't point that out more clearly, so we'll just have to agree to disagree and move on.

[Organized Chaos]

11 hours ago, RWolver672 said:

Most of the people responding to this post talked about the food industry.  There are a lot more affected by the cruise lines not sailing than food consumption.

 

Fewer people flying to the ports. Fewer people driving to the ports meaning less fuel used.  Fewer people using Uber or another mode of getting to the port.  Fewer people staying in hotels and motels before and after the cruise.  Fewer shoppers in the departure ports and ports of call. The list goes on and on.  It's a domino effect.  Unemployment raises dramatically.

 

I fully agree. I kept speaking of the food industry because that was the biggest example the OP gave. It was also what someone was using to offer their own counter-argument against the OP's point. So I ran with it. But you are undoubtedly correct about the wide-reaching affects this shutdown has had.

[SeaShark]

2 hours ago, Organized Chaos said:

 

You're dang right I'm narrowing my focus. You can't only think of the national economy, as important as it is. State economies can be hurt by the loss of an industry. Local economies can be hurt, or even devastated (short or long term) by such a loss. You can keep repeating a phrase about an economic vacuum, but that doesn't make it untrue. You can't just say, "Oh, the national economy (the 'overall picture') would do just fine, so it's no big deal." Tell that to the thousands, if not millions, of people of the local economies (in this country and the ports of call) who are deeply affected by the cruise shutdown. Again, the loss is undeniable. I can't point that out more clearly, so we'll just have to agree to disagree and move on.

 

Sure...look at one side of a coin. Everybody and every instance you cite is true, but you refuse to look at the OTHER side of the coin. It works like a see-saw. The cruise industry goes down and the other side of the see-saw rises. How much do you think companies that make masks, hand sanitizer, and rubber gloves are making? Without the pandemic, their income would drop like a rock. As mentioned earlier, no cruise = new deck. Tell the carpenter and the lumber yard that there is no economic benefit.

 

 

You simply can't look at it in a vacuum...thats Econ 101...no matter how much you think it bolsters a point.

[drsel]

Agreed

[tidecat]

On 6/21/2020 at 8:08 AM, richfret said:

I was only considering those ships that have the Red Carnival funnel.  

Fantasy class (8): Fantasy, Ecstasy, Sensation, Fascination, Imagination, Inspiration, Elation, Paradise

Spirit class (4): Spirit, Pride, Legend, Miracle

Conquest class (5): Conquest, Glory, Freedom, Liberty, Valor

Splendor class (1): Splendor

Dream class (3): Dream, Magic, Breeze

Sunshine class (3): Sunshine, Sunrise, Radiance

Vista class (3): Vista, Horizon, Panorama

 

That only makes 27 ships. There are two Excellence class ships on order, Mardi Gras, plus one originally scheduled for late 2022.

 

Carnival Fantasy did not have a deployment as of January 2022, and was presumably going to be retired.

 

There are still three former Carnival ships alive: Tropicale (Ocean Dream for Peace Boat), Holiday (Magellan for CMV), and Celebration (Grand Celebration for Bahamas Paradise). All but the former Tropicale still have whale tail funnels.

 

The only ship built with a whale tail that has been scrapped is the former Jubilee, who had her funnel altered when she was transferred to P&O Australia.

[richfret]

Actually I got my numbers from Carnival from a listing they published but I do not know the date of publication.  At the time, it was a colored listing showing a small picture of each ship with their names printed and the gross tonnage.   It was sorted by size of the ship with the Reflection being the biggest.  I took off the Tropical since I knew it was gone and hence the 27 number.  

 

I have the listing hanging on the wall in my computer room to get me in the cruising mode.   I am booked for January but I have my doubts.  That listing might become a valuable historical record if cruising continues on it's current course. 

 

 

[drsel]

Travelling with Bruce on YouTube says that Carnival Corporations assets are worth $45 billion and their loans are $10.5 billion.

also in the last year they bought back shares worth $603 million out of a maximum $1 billion allowed.

They had been paying huge dividends for many years.

He strongly feels that they are well capitalised and they should survive this pandemic

[RWolver672]

On 6/22/2020 at 7:57 PM, SeaShark said:

 

 How much do you think companies that make masks, hand sanitizer, and rubber gloves are making? Without the pandemic, their income would drop like a rock. 

 

 

You also have to look at it that these companies were making something else before this hit.  Take face shields and respirators for instance.  Ford Motor company was shut down until they started making them.  Ford can make a lot more profit from selling an F150 Pickup than they can from making face shields and respirators.  Many companies that started making sanitazers were probably making something more profitable before.