And there goes November-- Cruises Cancelled!!

[jamon]

The announcement from the CDC about no cruises through October 31 was made October 1, why 11 days later did Carnival finally realize it was not feasible to sail in November?   They had to know 10/1 that it was not possible...Why wait 11 days to make it official?

[chipmaster]

5 minutes ago, jamon said:

The announcement from the CDC about no cruises through October 31 was made October 1, why 11 days later did Carnival finally realize it was not feasible to sail in November?   They had to know 10/1 that it was not possible...Why wait 11 days to make it official?

 

Denial and wishing for the best, when reality is obivious, sad but the large state of the US, no willingness to suck it up and do what is necessary in the short term to enable a faster recovery in the long term.

 

No different than most children dont' understand short-term sacrifice for long-term gain.

[embarkation75]

1 hour ago, MsTabbyKats said:

Yes...you and John H were confident!

I'm still saying "late spring 2021".

 

Yeah, I don't see full fleet operations until around April although I do believe we will see the handful of ships out of Miami and Canaveral operating Dec-Jan with another port or two added Feb-Mar then full ops in the spring once vaccine availability drops covid infections. This allows them to operate in time for the money making summer cruise season.

[jimbo5544]

10 minutes ago, jamon said:

The announcement from the CDC about no cruises through October 31 was made October 1, why 11 days later did Carnival finally realize it was not feasible to sail in November?   They had to know 10/1 that it was not possible...Why wait 11 days to make it official?

Maybe, just maybe, they really wanted to sail in November.  Maybe, just maybe, it takes that time to determine they cannot make the dates, the requirements, the work effort it takes.  

[jimbo5544]

3 minutes ago, embarkation75 said:

 

Yeah, I don't see full fleet operations until around April although I do believe we will see the handful of ships out of Miami and Canaveral operating Dec-Jan with another port or two added Feb-Mar then full ops in the spring once vaccine availability drops covid infections. This allows them to operate in time for the money making summer cruise season.

They have no plans for full implementation to resume cruising.  It will be slow and steady.

[jimbo5544]

6 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Denial and wishing for the best, when reality is obivious, sad but the large state of the US, no willingness to suck it up and do what is necessary in the short term to enable a faster recovery in the long term.

 

No different than most children dont' understand short-term sacrifice for long-term gain.

Despite claims to the contrary, the virus will run its course in its own time.  Easy to say if you do this or that the results will be this or that, especially when they change their minds on what this and that are during the same time period.  Hotspots popping up in states where you get fined heavily for not wearing masks are evidence enough.

[BlerkOne]

13 minutes ago, jamon said:

The announcement from the CDC about no cruises through October 31 was made October 1, why 11 days later did Carnival finally realize it was not feasible to sail in November?   They had to know 10/1 that it was not possible...Why wait 11 days to make it official?

 

Perhaps waiting to see if Covid trends continued skyward?

[MsTabbyKats]

35 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Still sounds dismal to me, vast majority out of work foe the lines, islands and excursions.  

If you charge double, and end up losing half your customer base....you're still bringing in the same $$$...but your expenses don't double.  So, more profit.

New target market.  I'm not saying "now"....but if cruising doesn't happen for a year + down the road.

[PhillyFan33579]

32 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

Agree. I think the Navigator of the Seas will be sailing before we know it.

I have heard RCI crew members have been contacted about returning to work to support cruises in December, so I think it is at least a possibility that Navigator and/or Mariner could return to cruising in December. On the other hand, I have still not heard a single word about Carnival crew members being contacted to return to work. 

[embarkation75]

1 minute ago, jimbo5544 said:

They have no plans for full implementation to resume cruising.  It will be slow and steady.

 

Indeed as I'm not sure where folks believe it will be full fleet ops starting in January as Carnival has been saying they'd roll out slowly. Realistically, unless it's Miami or Canaveral I doubt most ports will be opening until vaccine availability drops infection rates (widespread in late March/April) as this country has shown it refuses to take mitigation practices seriously.

[PhillyFan33579]

1 hour ago, MsTabbyKats said:

"As we know it"....but it could come back "different".

My prediction...that it will not be "for the masses".  More upscale...more $$$...less passengers

I hope you are not talking about Carnival being more upscale. Their success has been based on being a budget minded cruise line that offers affordable fares. Other cruise lines offer a far more upscale experience than Carnival offers. There is no way Carnival can match what other cruise lines offer without changing the entire culture of their company, which would be a huge undertaking with no guarantee it would be successful. 

[jamon]

Jimbo5544: I agree that they really wanted to sail in November, all cruise lines would like that.  I hope during the past 6 months or so of no cruises that they and other cruise lines have looked at the time it takes to make the date, and all that goes into getting ships ready to sail like the requirements and the work it takes to make that happen, so they at least they have a good idea of how much time you need and work is needed. 

[Tapi]

14 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

I have still not heard a single word about Carnival crew members being contacted to return to work. 

I did see a photo a few weeks ago of crew members returning. They were boarding an un-named ship, wearing masks, with a welcome sign. It was posted on Sept 13th

 

Edited October 12, 2020 by Tapi

[jimbo5544]

11 minutes ago, Tapi said:

I did see a photo a few weeks ago of crew members returning. They were boarding an un-named ship, wearing masks, with a welcome sign. It was posted on Sept 13th

 

Makes my blood pressure rise.

[BlerkOne]

12 minutes ago, MsTabbyKats said:

If you charge double, and end up losing half your customer base....you're still bringing in the same $$$...but your expenses don't double.  So, more profit.

New target market.  I'm not saying "now"....but if cruising doesn't happen for a year + down the road.

 

You risk losing half your ships, and as economies of scale go down, expenses go up. Mass market cruise lines competing for fewer customers is not a good position to grow a business.

[jimbo5544]

3 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

You risk losing half your ships, and as economies of scale go down, expenses go up. Mass market cruise lines competing for fewer customers is not a good position to grow a business.

Pretty much the exact opposite.  It will not be a better cruising world if that comes to pass.

[xDisconnections]

9 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

You risk losing half your ships, and as economies of scale go down, expenses go up. Mass market cruise lines competing for fewer customers is not a good position to grow a business.

 

5 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Pretty much the exact opposite.  It will not be a better cruising world if that comes to pass.

Plus, staterooms are perishable. If they sail unoccupied, that room rental revenue is gone, potential onboard spend is gone and employee morale can suffer if there are fewer tips to distribute as a result of vacant rooms. There’s a reason staterooms are given away complimentary when occupancy is low. Princess had to offer OBC for nearly an entire year equal to the cruise fare just to get people onboard the Caribbean Princess in 2014. Short cruises simply didn’t work for them.

[Earthworm Jim]

Maybe I'm looking too far ahead wondering about this, but if the no sail order was lifted soon, would the cruises have anywhere to go in the Caribbean? Are at least some of the normal ports saying they'd accept cruises again? If not, CDC order or not, those cruises can't sail if they don't have any destination.

 

But I guess all it would take would be one foreign port willing to accept cruisers and they'd be good to go as far as the PVSA is concerned. Passengers would have to like sea days for that to be attractive, but it would be legit.

[Ihearttravel11]

2 hours ago, stellarose said:

I am not making any payments for my December 21' MG cruise until I see ships moving. 

Same with my Aug 2022. I am putting my monthly payment into a special bank account, rather than directly to Carnival.

[xDisconnections]

1 minute ago, Earthworm Jim said:

Maybe I'm looking too far ahead wondering about this, but if the no sail order was lifted soon, would the cruises have anywhere to go in the Caribbean? Are at least some of the normal ports saying they'd accept cruises again? If not, CDC order or not, those cruises can't sail if they don't have any destination.

 

But I guess all it would take would be one foreign port willing to accept cruisers and they'd be good to go as far as the PVSA is concerned. Passengers would have to like sea days for that to be attractive, but it would be legit.

Mexico is accepting anyone who wants to go — no test required. Other islands such as the Bahamas and Aruba require a recent Covid test when visiting by plane... it might be similar. Once they see Mexico as a viable option, they’ll want in on the tourism dollars.

[BlerkOne]

2 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

 

Plus, staterooms are perishable. If they sail unoccupied, that room rental revenue is gone, potential onboard spend is gone and employee morale can suffer if there are fewer tips to distribute as a result of vacant rooms. There’s a reason staterooms are given away complimentary when occupancy is low. Princess had to offer OBC for nearly an entire year equal to the cruise fare just to get people onboard the Caribbean Princess in 2014. Short cruises simply didn’t work for them.

 

Plus contracts for outsourced venues are priced based on full occupancy, so the cruise lines would have to give rebates to shops, etc.

[xDisconnections]

2 hours ago, stellarose said:

I am not making any payments for my December 21' MG cruise until I see ships moving. 

 

2 minutes ago, Ihearttravel11 said:

Same with my Aug 2022. I am putting my monthly payment into a special bank account, rather than directly to Carnival.

Paid in full for Aug 2021. No worries here.

[xDisconnections]

Just now, BlerkOne said:

 

Plus contracts for outsourced venues are priced based on full occupancy, so the cruise lines would have to give rebates to shops, etc.

Port fees and taxes also. They’re estimates based on forecasted occupancy. 
 

Food cost, beverages and other provisions are priced in volume. Expect that to go up as well. Soon enough, cruising is no longer affordable to the average family. Carnival already feels the need to have financing options so clearly they believe their target audience still needs some type of assistance. Their entire business model could collapse and be worse than the current situation.

[BlerkOne]

Just now, xDisconnections said:

Port fees and taxes also. They’re estimates based on forecasted occupancy. 
 

Per ticket contracts, cruise lines could adjust these and charge passengers accordingly.

[siestakeys04]

At this point there is no need in thinking they will sail this year. I hope they will sail soon but I think next year is when they will start.