New vaccine

[terrierjohn]

49 minutes ago, tring said:

 

That is not the case in all cases.  My uncle died in the first lock down last year.  He was 97 and had cancer for a few years culminating with about 3 hospital admissions early last year.  The last time he went in, COVID was about, but he tested negative on arrival.  He was made comfortable and sent home, basically to die as he was clearly terminally ill at that stage and was to be looked after by his daughter, plus a son who had given up his job as a nurse to move into his house to look after him at that stage.  They were notified after he went home that the test done just before discharge was positive, but no obvious sign was present, but was never expected to live longer than a matter of days anyway.  In fact neither of his carers contracted covid, so chances are he had very low viral load (or perhaps had an incorrect test).

 

Buses are not the point, but people do die from other things, so just because they have an infection in their last month of their life, (which was never expected to last longer than that month anyway) is not a death from covid.  The mention of a patient who was frail, may well have also been terminally ill. 

I have a feeling that the UK has gone overboard with its analysis of deaths, and ensured that any possible covid connection was counted. Whereas many other countries have done the very opposite and only classed a death as covid if there were no other options.

We tended to do the same with  EU regulations, we duly followed the rules to the letter, wheras others cheated like mad.

[zap99]

7 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I have a feeling that the UK has gone overboard with its analysis of deaths, and ensured that any possible covid connection was counted. Whereas many other countries have done the very opposite and only classed a death as covid if there were no other options.

We tended to do the same with  EU regulations, we duly followed the rules to the letter, wheras others cheated like mad.

We tended to do the same with  EU regulations, we duly followed the rules to the letter, wheras others cheated like mad.

 

I was involved in European Standards. The UK stance was ' how do we ensure conformity with that '. EU was ' how so we get round that'.

[davecttr]

2 hours ago, lincslady said:

It is certainly done with prostate cancer - a lot of older men have slow growing prostate cancer but it is not the cause of their death.  My neighbour definitely died from the very common cause of a broken hip, in a very old person, then the pneumonia which often happens afterwards.

Apparently 80% of men aged 80 have prostate cancer, usually slow growing. I am 70 and might have it, after all the tests and scans the result is inconclusive so they will monitor it with yearly blood tests etc. I draw some comfort that if I do have it eventually confirmed the 5 year survival rate is very  high and not much lower for 10 years.

 

Life expectancy is difficult to understand for some. If men have a life expectancy of 80 many believe that is how long you live. No, I think it means half the men born 80 years ago will have already died.

[Dermotsgirl]

44 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I have a feeling that the UK has gone overboard with its analysis of deaths, and ensured that any possible covid connection was counted. Whereas many other countries have done the very opposite and only classed a death as covid if there were no other options.

We tended to do the same with  EU regulations, we duly followed the rules to the letter, wheras others cheated like mad.

In truth, our Covid death figure is probably understated.

 

The official tally is based on death within 28 days of a positive Covid test.  

 

Anyone who died of Covid (or 'with' it!) 29 days or more after their test is not included in the official figures. 

[cruisenewbie1976]

Just now, Dermotsgirl said:

In truth, our Covid death figure is probably understated.

 

The official tally is based on death within 28 days of a positive Covid test.  

 

Anyone who died of Covid (or 'with' it!) 29 days or more after their test is not included in the official figures. 

They're all included in the ONS data though - whenever covid has been mentioned on the death certificate. 

[terrierjohn]

2 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

In truth, our Covid death figure is probably understated.

 

The official tally is based on death within 28 days of a positive Covid test.  

 

Anyone who died of Covid (or 'with' it!) 29 days or more after their test is not included in the official figures. 

That is last test, and all those in hospital are regularly tested, until they test negative, and most deaths are now in hospital.

[ace2542]

16 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

The official tally is based on death within 28 days of a positive Covid test

For ANY REASON.

 

Including a guy who got hit by a car? I seem to remember that one and there have been a few others.

Edited May 17, 2021 by ace2542

[Dermotsgirl]

56 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

They're all included in the ONS data though - whenever covid has been mentioned on the death certificate. 

Yes, the ONS figures give a much better picture of excess mortality 

[Gettingwarmer]

3 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

So you'd need to add the people in the first group to the 119000 excess deaths. 

Why

[Dermotsgirl]

17 minutes ago, Gettingwarmer said:

Why

Because they aren’t excess deaths.

 

if they would have died anyway in 2020, they are not excess.

 

 

Anyway, I’m leaving it here, as I don’t want to get embroiled in an endless discussion.

 

An awful lot of people have died, that’s the bottom line. 

[Windsurfboy]

The timing of excess deaths is from March 2020  to early Ma,  the figures are straight from the ONS , which they up date every week.

 

Each measure is independent of the others. There is absolutely no logic in adding anyone to the other.

 

None of the figures are my calculations,  they came straight from ONS. 

[FamilyCruiserUK]

Excess deaths are the only real way to work out any close enough numbers for a true total.

 

My sisters mother in law was on palative care, was given 6 months to live. She died after month 5 and was tested positive for covid. She is now a covid related death.....which to us she was not.

[Dermotsgirl]

Just now, Windsurfboy said:

The timing of excess deaths is from March 2020  to early Ma,  the figures are straight from the ONS , which they up date every week.

 

Each measure is independent of the others. There is absolutely no logic in adding anyone to the other.

 

None of the figures are my calculations,  they came straight from ONS. 

I was reading that the ONS say that 150000 death certificates mention Covid.

 

That’s what I was trying to say - the excess mortality isn’t the total death toll from Covid.

 

But I’m leaving it here, as I don’t want to spend all evening going on about this 

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, Windsurfboy said:

this seems to be an emotional issue depending upon whether you want to argue  the government are incompetent and we have one of the worst death rates, or give them the benefit of the doubt. The deaths within 28 days for any reason is only one of 4 official measures, but the most popular with the media.

 

The 4 official measures are :

Deaths within 28 days for any reason

Excess deaths over 5 year average

Covid mentioned on death certificate 

Covid as main cause of death on death certificate 

 

Last year when excess deaths were significantly above the numbers for died within 28 days of a positive test measure, opponents of government were arguing very strongly  that this is the only way to do international comparisons.  I think that is true as most countries measure deaths accurately without ascribing cause. Calculating a 5 year average is standard. Excess deaths since start of pandemic are at 119000, less than the 128000 recorded as having died with 28 days for any reason. Opponents of Boris no longer use this figure

 

You then have covid deaths mentioned on death certificate as contributing to death , but not necessarily the prime cause of death , atover 150,000 , a figure loved by opposition . Or covid as the main cause of death on death certificate just over 125000 very similiar to deaths within 28 days for any reason

 

You takes your choice. However when making international comparisons, given countries use different definitions especially when putting covid on death certificate ,  the only valid comparison , is excess deaths per million.  Which means covid deaths are overstated.

Those are very interesting stats, especially  the excess deaths figure

 Do you have comparative stats for most other european countries, and where does that now rank the UK.

[Gettingwarmer]

7 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

I was reading that the ONS say that 150000 death certificates mention Covid.

 

That’s what I was trying to say - the excess mortality isn’t the total death toll from Covid.

 

But I’m leaving it here, as I don’t want to spend all evening going on about this 

Right I understand now. You were misunderstanding the figures. 

[Dermotsgirl]

8 minutes ago, Gettingwarmer said:

Right I understand now. You were misunderstanding the figures. 

No I’m not. 
 

 

[terrierjohn]

14 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

Because they aren’t excess deaths.

 

if they would have died anyway in 2020, they are not excess.

 

 

Anyway, I’m leaving it here, as I don’t want to get embroiled in an endless discussion.

 

An awful lot of people have died, that’s the bottom line. 

Surely the excess deaths are set against an average figure of some sort. 

It is a specific comparison of one months actual deaths compared with that months average death rate. You cant just start adding to or subtracting from it, it is a specific figure for that month. 

Certainly covid will have created a skewed effect because current death rates could be lower if someone died of covid earlier than they would have otherwise, and I guess the ONS will ultimately come up with some way of accounting for this in their data.

[Gettingwarmer]

1 minute ago, Dermotsgirl said:

No I’m not. 
 

 

I’m sorry but you seem to be interpreting them differently to everyone else. 

[Dermotsgirl]

18 minutes ago, FamilyCruiserUK said:

Excess deaths are the only real way to work out any close enough numbers for a true total.

 

My sisters mother in law was on palative care, was given 6 months to live. She died after month 5 and was tested positive for covid. She is now a covid related death.....which to us she was not.

I’m sorry to hear of your loss.

 

As I understand it, Covid only goes on the death certificate if the doctor feels that it contributed to the patients death.

 

Unfortunately this illustrates my point. Your sister’s MIL isn’t an ‘excess death’, as she would sadly have died anyway, but Covid hastened her passing. But she’s a Covid victim nevertheless. 
 

I’ve seen other people make your final comment. This is a very personal question to ask, and I ask with great respect, but would the loss of your sister’s MIL have been easier to bear if she hadn’t been included in the Covid figures? ( please don’t answer unless you want to, it’s just that I’ve seen the comment so many times before, and it seems very significant to people) 

[Dermotsgirl]

9 minutes ago, Gettingwarmer said:

I’m sorry but you seem to be interpreting them differently to everyone else. 

No, all I’m saying is that the excess death figure isn’t the total Covid death toll 

[Dermotsgirl]

12 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Surely the excess deaths are set against an average figure of some sort. 

It is a specific comparison of one months actual deaths compared with that months average death rate. You cant just start adding to or subtracting from it, it is a specific figure for that month. 

Certainly covid will have created a skewed effect because current death rates could be lower if someone died of covid earlier than they would have otherwise, and I guess the ONS will ultimately come up with some way of accounting for this in their data.

All I’m saying is that the excess death figure isn’t the total Covid death toll 

[terrierjohn]

1 minute ago, Dermotsgirl said:

All I’m saying is that the excess death figure isn’t the total Covid death 

Equally there are some of us who are saying that covid on a death certificate is not really a true statistic, if that person would have died in the same time period anyway.

[Dermotsgirl]

Just now, terrierjohn said:

Equally there are some of us who are saying that covid on a death certificate is not really a true statistic, if that person would have died in the same time period anyway.

Fair enough

[AndyMichelle]

This is fun!!! 

So glad I came back😊

 

I am only kidding, I know it is a serious subject with relevant contrasting opinions... 

 

As you were... 

 

Andy 

[lincslady]

Apologies for probably starting this prolonged discussion regarding 'with' and ''of' covid.  It could go on for ever - yes, it is important, but there will never be universal agreement on how the statistics are measured.