Updated Return to Service Predictions

[mrlevin]

Pcardad was closest in our original thread (he said April 2021 while the rest of us had dates in 2020) but instead of adding to that thread, I thought it would be good to start a new thread so we can update our predictions based on the tea leaves seen.  My prediction:

 

4/08 Splendour out of Barcelona

4/26 Voyager out of Barcelona

5/12 Mariner out of Barcelona

5/19 Explorer out of Vancouver

5/31 Navigator out of Halifax (instead of NYC to not violate seven day rule)

[Kwaj girl]

27 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

Pcardad was closest in our original thread (he said April 2021 while the rest of us had dates in 2020) but instead of adding to that thread, I thought it would be good to start a new thread so we can update our predictions based on the tea leaves seen.  My prediction:

 

4/08 Splendour out of Barcelona

4/26 Voyager out of Barcelona

5/12 Mariner out of Barcelona

5/19 Explorer out of Vancouver

5/31 Navigator out of Halifax (instead of NYC to not violate seven day rule)

I like the Halifax embarkation but air lift to there could be a problem....and I would "assume" that Grand Voyage would end in Bermuda...again, to circumvent the 7-day rule?

[Belfast Taxman]

I fear that April cruises out of Barcelona is a tad optimistic. If they do go, it seems likely that there would be no UK or US passengers. Following the departure of the Uk from the European Union at the end of December, movement of people for tourist purposes will be banned between the UK and most of Europe as there is little sign that the Covid outbreak is diminishing either here or Europe. US citizens are, of course, already banned from tourist travel to Europe.

The latest debacle on Quantum of the Seas does not help 

[Guerncruising]

47 minutes ago, Belfast Taxman said:

I fear that April cruises out of Barcelona is a tad optimistic. If they do go, it seems likely that there would be no UK or US passengers.

I couldn’t agree more. April seems far too early and also wouldn’t we have to see what the vaccine take up is in the ports to be visited?

I’m not too sure of our position as a Crown Dependency but being members of the European Economic Area and how that will affect us. 

Either way it has to be as safe as possible for us to cruise. 

[flossie009]

I'm not going to attempt any predictions, but was interested to see to what lengths some septuagenarians will go when their Transatlantic Christmas cruise on Regent has been cancelled:

https://frankrothwell-atlanticchallenge.com/about/

 

[Guerncruising]

A very charming man, he was interviewed on BBC Breakfast this morning. Quite a hoot. 

[Ladys Mom]

We all can only wish him luck and safe travels.

[IndiTravler]

On 12/12/2020 at 8:10 AM, flossie009 said:

I'm not going to attempt any predictions, but was interested to see to what lengths some septuagenarians will go when their Transatlantic Christmas cruise on Regent has been cancelled:

https://frankrothwell-atlanticchallenge.com/about/

 

Frank is nuts.   

[Pcardad]

I am going with Splendor and something around August 1......but I doubt anything before that will sail.

 

[Guerncruising]

58 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

I am going with Splendor and something around August 1......but I doubt anything before that will sail.

 

A shame it’s so far away but I think that I have to agree with you about the time of year. It may even be a little later and I guess restricted sailing areas (which may have to be very fluid).

Oh well, just have to keep dreaming. 

[Pcardad]

Everything I have heard indicates required vaccines...and I think the airlines will do so as well.

[RJ2002]

2 hours ago, Pcardad said:

I am going with Splendor and something around August 1......but I doubt anything before that will sail.

 

 

Sobering but probably realistic prediction.  I suspect this will be the same for most lines.

[pappy1022]

Agree that proof of being vaccinated will be required for cruises and any international air travel. Mixing people with and without the vaccines in group settings is risky. Even if you get the vaccine, you can carry the COVID virus and pass it along. The vaccine makes your body recognize the virus and fights it with the antibodies that your system developed from the vaccine and hopefully keeps you from getting really sick. My guess is that the first Regent cruise carrying US passengers will be in September 2021.

[cerise638]

Note that all we can say about the vaccine is that prevents the vaccinated getting sick.  Cannot see many countries allowing people in until their own population have been vaccinated.  At the moment there is no evidence that you won't transmit the disease even when vaccinated.

 

 

[witt's end]

My original bet was April 8, 2021 and I remember when I posted it that it seemed so far away! Now, it is too early I fear. We are booked in May and are not emotionally invested in that one happening. The next one isn’t until the fall so our fingers are crossed for that one.

[wcsdkqh]

12 hours ago, cerise638 said:

Note that all we can say about the vaccine is that prevents the vaccinated getting sick.  Cannot see many countries allowing people in until their own population have been vaccinated.  At the moment there is no evidence that you won't transmit the disease even when vaccinated.

 

 

Nor is there any evidence that you can or will transmit the disease after being vaccinated. One of the questions that remains to be answered.

[SusieQft]

22 hours ago, cerise638 said:

At the moment there is no evidence that you won't transmit the disease even when vaccinated.

 

9 hours ago, wcsdkqh said:

Nor is there any evidence that you can or will transmit the disease after being vaccinated. One of the questions that remains to be answered.

And we should hopefully have a lot more information on this by mid-2021, assuming that the vaccine program actually gets moving.  Answers to these questions will probably come before everyone even has a chance to get the vaccine.

[Pcardad]

On 12/31/2020 at 10:54 AM, Pcardad said:

I am going with Splendor and something around August 1......but I doubt anything before that will sail.

 

I am adding that I expect european cruises to run this summer but it will be a while before the US opens up.

[mrlevin]

38 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

I am adding that I expect european cruises to run this summer but it will be a while before the US opens up.

 

Then why can't the Grand Arctic Adventure depart from Halifax on 31 May instead of NYC?  Nice short flight to Halifax.  Maybe it could depart from Montreal instead?  Please Regent do something creative instead of just canceling yet more trips.

[SusieQft]

1 hour ago, mrlevin said:

Then why can't the Grand Arctic Adventure depart from Halifax on 31 May instead of NYC?

Has Canada opened to cruise ships?

[mrlevin]

7 hours ago, SusieQft said:

Has Canada opened to cruise ships?

The closure in Canada only extends until February (IIRC).  If Canada, Iceland, and Ireland waters aren't opened they might as well cancel out the first month.  At some point these nations (USA included) need to look at economic impact of lack of tourism industry and decide to open up to vaccinated crew and passengers.

 

As for getting vaccine to crew, there is nothing illegal about the cruise lines buying directly from the manufacturer; vaccines are not export controlled substances.

Edited January 11, 2021 by mrlevin

[Ladys Mom]

Where we live in Alabama they are just opening up vaccinations for those 75 and older on Jan. 18.  This doesn't help us (early 70's) at all.  I suspect it will be March to April before we get our shots.  What about those less than 65 in most states who want to cruise?  Summer seems most likely for cruising to begin even in Europe since they are having trouble distributing the vaccine, with the exception of Great Britain.  IMHO I don't think the Great Arctic Adventure is going to happen this year.  Sorry.

[flossie009]

1 hour ago, Ladys Mom said:

Summer seems most likely for cruising to begin even in Europe since they are having trouble distributing the vaccine, with the exception of Great Britain.

Even with our ambitious vaccination targets in the UK, it is likely to take at least until this Autumn until all adults have had their two jabs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55621228

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan

 

I am sure that cruise lines will wish to recommence operations by Summer 2021 but wonder what the boarding criteria will be and which ports will be willing to accept cruise ships 🤔

We can only hope for signs of a worldwide improvement 🤞

 

 

[mariners]

mrlevin, I'm not sure how much of our (Canadian) news is at the forefront of what is going on in terms of cruises in the future.  However, if you look at what's happening right now in provinces where cruises would typically port, unfortunately, I can't see any way that they will open up to cruises before the fall (if then).  We have a cruise booked leaving from a Canadian port in September, and, for multiple reasons I believe it only has a 50% chance of sailing:  cruise lines choosing to sail from Canada, cruise ports where the ship will be going to allowing the ship to dock, vaccinations in Canada that allow us to travel if vaccinations are required, tourists allowed into the country without the need to self-isolate ...  

 

Travel within Canada is restricted and self-isolation/quarantines are in place.  In some provinces, the numbers of infections are increasing and the provinces are deciding upon what additional protocols need to be put in place.  In those provinces that don't have an increase in the number of infections, strict protocols are already in place.  (There is no travel from "outside" areas to the East Coast.)

 

I cannot visit my granddaughter on the East Coast and she cannot visit me.  I cannot visit with my family who live less than five minutes from me as I am not permitted to go and visit, even outdoors, on someone else's property.  I cannot go to any store and buy anything other than essential goods/food.  Our restaurants are closed except for take out/delivery.  Our hairdressers/barber shops are closed. The regulations for each province are different, but every province is trying to prevent the virus from overwhelming the medical system.  

 

I am hoping that I will have the vaccine by the end of summer.  I am also hoping that I will get to take my booked cruises in the future.  However, that being said, I want our country, and other countries, to focus on ensuring that the future will allow the next generation (and those after them) to experience the world, different cultures, the excitement of planning trips, etc.  I feel so lucky that I had the opportunity to travel before COVID had an impact on the world.  "What a wonderful world".

 

My thoughts are with the crew and those people (travel agents/cruise consultants/cruise contractors/etc.) who are not in a position to worry about taking a cruise; so many of them are worried, rightly so, about how they are going to provide for their families.   

 

So, mrlevin, it will hit the Canadian economy, but that, IMO, means nothing compared to the loss of peoples' lives.  I hope that our government continues on its current path even though that means no cruises out of Canada.

 

All the best.  

 

[mrlevin]

Mariners, thank you for your insights.  My sister lives in California and lives under similar restrictions that you live under.  I live in Texas where for the most part we are allowed to live our lives with the pandemic as a backdrop and vaccination rolling out at a reasonable clip.  I fear for the mental health of those that have been locked down for months on end.  In the beginning we stayed in and avoided all contact; since May, however, we have tried to be smart but also live our lives.  

 

I have accepted that my cruise will be cancelled.  I made final payment this afternoon in order to be able to move it to 2022 when it does get cancelled.

 

I am thankful to all on this site for their knowledge, experiences, and recommendations.

 

Warmest Regards,

 

Marc