Will NCL survive the COVID-19?

[SeaWatcher65]

I'm a fan of cruising but wishful thinking will not make cruising come back.  There's a lot of wishful thinking on these forums.  I have cruise next certificates so two cruises booked but I will not make final payments until there is more certainty about cruising.  I'd love to change my reservations but NCL has astronomically increased prices.  I guess NCL's plan was to offer people 125% credit and they would book another cruise instead of a refund.  We need to get through the politics, have vaccines available, and people willing to take the vaccine.  I think that will take all of 2021.  Then we need port countries willing to let 2,000 to 4,000 passengers plus crew empty out of one ship (or several ships) all at the same time.  The ports will want to inspect the ship's health records, and one person sick, I doubt anyone is getting off the ship.  Unless you want to cruise to the Bahamas or Mexico, I think cruising is just done.  I hope not, but I'm also realistic.  Then consider that NCL and other cruise lines have increased prices 25% to more than 50%.  A cruise I priced at $12,000 is not more than $18,000.  Another one was $5,000 is now $8,000.  People are going to choose better land-based vacations for less money.

 

 

[Crazy planning mom]

3 hours ago, SeaWatcher65 said:

This is crazy planning mom- not Seawatch .  I am optimistic about cruising in Asia and Europe.  MSC, Tui and others have sailed successfully during the pandemic.   Quantum after 1 hiccup is doing well in Singapore.  If NCL can get cruising going in those places in 2021 along with some Bahamas sailings, would that be enough to keep them afloat?

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Crazy planning mom

[HowardK]

23 hours ago, SeaWatcher65 said:

I'm a fan of cruising but wishful thinking will not make cruising come back.  There's a lot of wishful thinking on these forums.  I have cruise next certificates so two cruises booked but I will not make final payments until there is more certainty about cruising.  I'd love to change my reservations but NCL has astronomically increased prices.  I guess NCL's plan was to offer people 125% credit and they would book another cruise instead of a refund.  We need to get through the politics, have vaccines available, and people willing to take the vaccine.  I think that will take all of 2021.  Then we need port countries willing to let 2,000 to 4,000 passengers plus crew empty out of one ship (or several ships) all at the same time.  The ports will want to inspect the ship's health records, and one person sick, I doubt anyone is getting off the ship.  Unless you want to cruise to the Bahamas or Mexico, I think cruising is just done. 

 

 

May of this year was going to be my last one for a few years- but not for bad reasoning. I had other plans for 2022. 

I am actually looking at my 2024 calendar as there are some weeks in there that are good for me- maybe one in 2023.

This goes for other things like baseball games, movies and concerts- It is all on hold until who knows when.

 

[DCGuy64]

On 12/26/2020 at 12:34 PM, SeaWatcher65 said:

I'm a fan of cruising but wishful thinking will not make cruising come back.  There's a lot of wishful thinking on these forums.  I have cruise next certificates so two cruises booked but I will not make final payments until there is more certainty about cruising.  I'd love to change my reservations but NCL has astronomically increased prices.  I guess NCL's plan was to offer people 125% credit and they would book another cruise instead of a refund.  We need to get through the politics, have vaccines available, and people willing to take the vaccine.  I think that will take all of 2021.  Then we need port countries willing to let 2,000 to 4,000 passengers plus crew empty out of one ship (or several ships) all at the same time.  The ports will want to inspect the ship's health records, and one person sick, I doubt anyone is getting off the ship.  Unless you want to cruise to the Bahamas or Mexico, I think cruising is just done.  I hope not, but I'm also realistic.  Then consider that NCL and other cruise lines have increased prices 25% to more than 50%.  A cruise I priced at $12,000 is not more than $18,000.  Another one was $5,000 is now $8,000.  People are going to choose better land-based vacations for less money.

 

 

I'd call it more "hopeful" feeling than wishful, but since this forum is for people fond of cruising, that should come as no surprise. If anything, I've been seeing lots of negativity on here, at least as regards predictions about when cruising will resume. With that being said, we are also sticking to land-based vacations for the moment (going to the DR on Saturday, Deo volente.) But we will be cruising as soon as we're able to find a country and cruise line that'll have us, LOL.

 

 

[roger001]

It's just not something that we have control over.  The virus is in control.  The rules and restrictions are to hopefully slow it down until the vaccine or whatever can remove it as a threat.  So the cruise lines wanting the restrictions lifted, what then?  They're going to go cruising around with covid passengers?   No good answer to make the cruise lines well again.  Hopefully, some can wait it out until we're cured.  

[Galatz]

22 minutes ago, roger001 said:

It's just not something that we have control over.  The virus is in control.  The rules and restrictions are to hopefully slow it down until the vaccine or whatever can remove it as a threat.  So the cruise lines wanting the restrictions lifted, what then?  They're going to go cruising around with covid passengers?   No good answer to make the cruise lines well again.  Hopefully, some can wait it out until we're cured.  

You know there is an in between the two right? Its not "no sailing allowed" or "everybody come get COVID on our ships!"

 

If the cruise industry wanted to reopen at 50% capacity, kept everything socially distant, etc it would be no different than going to a hotel or other facility on land. 

[Trimone]

We had a strange situation on the 30/12 We took the family for lunch, then that afternoon the tier system changed, everyone had to book out the hotel and go home before midnight? That’s ok, but if you’ve had a good lunch 🍸🥂🍷on the pretence that your staying the night, and you are the only driver? Imagine if it was a ship in any port...

[Formula280SS]

38 minutes ago, Galatz said:

You know there is an in between the two right? Its not "no sailing allowed" or "everybody come get COVID on our ships!"

 

If the cruise industry wanted to reopen at 50% capacity, kept everything socially distant, etc it would be no different than going to a hotel or other facility on land. 

 

Very rational.  It's nice to see such here once in a while.  😀

 

But hey, they partied last night for New Years in Wuhan.  😷

 

Note ~  

 

After proudly announcing to the world stage by declaration of the government, and of course lauded and hailed by WHO, the MSM and globalists, in April/May of 2020, that the virus (that they were responsible for welcoming to humanity) risk was no longer present, it conversely and in contradiction looks like everyone is still wearing a mask?  And "essentially all" of the masks appear to be exactly the same; like right out of the same box of 500?  

 

Huh, go figure.  🙄

 

[onetimearoundtheworld]

2 hours ago, Formula280SS said:

And "essentially all" of the masks appear to be exactly the same; like right out of the same box of 500?  

The same box I still have more than 150 masks from. Go figure 🙄

[Crazy planning mom]

8 hours ago, Galatz said:

You know there is an in between the two right? Its not "no sailing allowed" or "everybody come get COVID on our ships!"

 

If the cruise industry wanted to reopen at 50% capacity, kept everything socially distant, etc it would be no different than going to a hotel or other facility on land. 

It's true.  MSC managed to sail for months this Summer and Fall without a problem.  Part of the issue is that in other places like Europe and Asia they are able to do cruises to nowhere whereas here we cannot.

[Galatz]

On 1/1/2021 at 5:44 PM, Crazy planning mom said:

It's true.  MSC managed to sail for months this Summer and Fall without a problem.  Part of the issue is that in other places like Europe and Asia they are able to do cruises to nowhere whereas here we cannot.

I expect a lot of cruises to private islands in the future. I wouldnt be surprised if cruise lines add multiple islands in the future. 

[4774Papa]

On 12/12/2020 at 12:03 AM, BirdTravels said:

There are hundreds of millions of people in the United States. And billions worldwide. 

 

100 million doses = 15% of the US (need 700 million doses) 

100 million doses = 0.6% of the World (need 15.6 billion doses)

My wife and I have appointments at our health department here in South Georgia for the COVID-19 vaccines (on Monday 11 Jan).

[ziggyuk]

On 1/3/2021 at 10:38 PM, Galatz said:

I expect a lot of cruises to private islands in the future. I wouldnt be surprised if cruise lines add multiple islands in the future. 

 

Very true, my next cruise is with MSC in May and is on one of the two ships sailing, I only booked it because it's sailing.

The cruise is a simple 3 days weekend cruise to the channel islands in the English channel, never stopping anywhere outside the UK.

[wowzz]

4 hours ago, ziggyuk said:

 

Very true, my next cruise is with MSC in May and is on one of the two ships sailing, I only booked it because it's sailing.

The cruise is a simple 3 days weekend cruise to the channel islands in the English channel, never stopping anywhere outside the UK.

I reckon you have a 10% chance of the cruise going ahead, and that's being generous. 

Still, I admire your optimism.

[ziggyuk]

15 minutes ago, wowzz said:

I reckon you have a 10% chance of the cruise going ahead, and that's being generous. 

Still, I admire your optimism.

 

And what do you base that on, right now the ship is sailing on that date, it is one of only two MSE ships that are sailing.

With the governments pledge on vaccinations the situation will be far by better than expected when MSC planned those cruises, I see no reason why a May sailing should be cancelled and that's giving the government months of leeway if they (when they) don't hit their targets.
It's not like the ship needs to be prepared, it's up and running.

My optimism is better than your unfounded pessimism.

Edited January 8, 2021 by ziggyuk

[roger001]

As I understand it, the entire cause of us not cruising is this virus.  At the moment, it is run away out of control where I live and the same so many other places in the US and other countries.  Not getting better, but worse generally.  That will keep us grounded (docked) for as long as the virus is behaving like it is, including the new strain that is faster spreading.  The vaccine (got mine this week) is the answer for us cruising again.  But it is projected to be taking much, much longer to accomplish than originally assumed. Could be years even. Hey...nobody wants to be cruising more than me.  But reality is reality...with the virus.   If somebody has a magic answer to get us going again, wish they would announce it.  My opinion.  

[4774Papa]

28 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

And what do you base that on, right now the ship is sailing on that date, it is one of only two MSE ships that are sailing.

With the governments pledge on vaccinations the situation will be far by better than expected when MSC planned those cruises, I see no reason why a May sailing should be cancelled and that's giving the government months of leeway if they (when they) don't hit their targets.
It's not like the ship needs to be prepared, it's up and running.

My optimism is better than your unfounded pessimism.

ziggyuk,

Like you I am the eternal optimist.  Our community in South Georgia is doing well vaccinating people.  Next Monday the state of Georgia opened up the vaccines to people over 65.   CVS and other pharmacies have not started with administering the vaccines, but that will happen soon enough.  Many people on these boards have kept posting pessimistic expectations contrary to my view that we would likely get the vaccine by early Spring.  Now it appears that we will get the first dose on January 11.   Optimist wins out.  It will take a while to get this done, but with caregivers, first responders and Seniors now getting vaccinated, that will go a long way at protecting the most vulnerable.  We  have two trips overseas this year, one in July and the other in October.  I am optimistic that we will be able to make those trips, one of which includes a cruise.

[ziggyuk]

5 minutes ago, roger001 said:

As I understand it, the entire cause of us not cruising is this virus.  At the moment, it is run away out of control where I live and the same so many other places in the US and other countries.  Not getting better, but worse generally.  That will keep us grounded (docked) for as long as the virus is behaving like it is, including the new strain that is faster spreading.  The vaccine (got mine this week) is the answer for us cruising again.  But it is projected to be taking much, much longer to accomplish than originally assumed. Could be years even. Hey...nobody wants to be cruising more than me.  But reality is reality...with the virus.   If somebody has a magic answer to get us going again, wish they would announce it.  My opinion.  

 

But this was in reference to the UK, our government has pledged to vaccinate 15 million by mid February which is 1/4 of the population. They have further pledged to vaccinate 2 million a week of the remaining 45 million.

Obviously they will need to start on 2nd shots after 3 months so that 2 million will become 1 million new people.
Even if the government don't achieve their plans, and lets be honest, they rarely do, the country will still be a very different place by May.

 

The plan to have all healthcare, all vulnerable and all over 70's vaccinated by mid February will in itself change the situation considerably.

 

We won't be back to normal by May but I am confident we will be well on the way.

[ziggyuk]

23 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

ziggyuk,

Like you I am the eternal optimist.  Our community in South Georgia is doing well vaccinating people.  Next Monday the state of Georgia opened up the vaccines to people over 65.   CVS and other pharmacies have not started with administering the vaccines, but that will happen soon enough.  Many people on these boards have kept posting pessimistic expectations contrary to my view that we would likely get the vaccine by early Spring.  Now it appears that we will get the first dose on January 11.   Optimist wins out.  It will take a while to get this done, but with caregivers, first responders and Seniors now getting vaccinated, that will go a long way at protecting the most vulnerable.  We  have two trips overseas this year, one in July and the other in October.  I am optimistic that we will be able to make those trips, one of which includes a cruise.

 

I agree, I am an optimist at heart but in honesty until now I have had to accept it was a bleak outlook but I truly believe we can now see light at the end of the tunnel and we are months away from some form of normality.

It is poorer countries I feel for, while our wealth in the west allows us to snap up all the vaccines we can handle, those in poorer countries can only look on and prey. I saw a documentary yesterday in south Africa where covid is ripping through the slums and a lady was interviewed who was desperate for the vaccines but could only watch what the west have & hope their turn will come.

Edited January 8, 2021 by ziggyuk

[Markanddonna]

51 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

It is poorer countries I feel for, while our wealth in the west allows us to snap up all the vaccines we can handle, those in poorer countries can only look on and prey. I saw a documentary yesterday in south Africa where covid is ripping through the slums and a lady was interviewed who was desperate for the vaccines but could only watch what the west have & hope their turn will come.

This is truly sad on so many levels. The situation with the poorer countries make them targets for China's One Road One Belt policies. China may offer financial help (and maybe their vaccine) for precious minerals, control of their ports, etc- things the country will sorely regret in the future.

 

Our country has been in this dark forest this past year (on so many levels), and while we hope for normalcy, we might be escorted into an even bleaker cave. 

 

As far as getting the vaccine, I am hopeful and not listening to conspiracy theorists and those with wacky ideas. I received an email from someone who heard (not going to share her silly theory) she received "from her friend who is a retired nurse". I look to places like the Mayo Clinic for my facts.

[wowzz]

1 hour ago, Markanddonna said:

from her friend who is a retired nurse".

Much as I have a high regard for nurses (my mum was one), unless they also happen to be a qualified virologist,  I would totally ignore their opinion on the vaccine, as you have done. 

Nurses are there to vaccinate, not to pontificate! 

[warburg]

Hello, Everyone, from South Beach.  This is the first time in history that this country shut itself down for a virus. You know, looking at the devastation this has caused, I think our ancestors were much smarted than we are. The huge cruise industry has been essentially dead. As an avid cruise fan, I certainly hope for a positive outcome. Cruises are dependent on other industries that are also batterer. Looking at the condition  America is currently in, I lack confidence that the government that caused it will be able to get things working again. It's kind of like a modern Humpty Dumpty. There's lots of shell and egg splatters. At least that creates jobs for cleaners. Optimists, we are booked on the Joy in December.

Mary

[HowardK]

9 hours ago, roger001 said:

As I understand it, the entire cause of us not cruising is this virus.  At the moment, it is run away out of control where I live and the same so many other places in the US and other countries.  Not getting better, but worse generally.  That will keep us grounded (docked) for as long as the virus is behaving like it is, including the new strain that is faster spreading.  The vaccine (got mine this week) is the answer for us cruising again.  But it is projected to be taking much, much longer to accomplish than originally assumed. Could be years even. Hey...nobody wants to be cruising more than me.  But reality is reality...with the virus.   If somebody has a magic answer to get us going again, wish they would announce it.  My opinion.  

Every time I read something regarding a timeline it seems to get pushed back more and more. For me I wouldn't be surprised if it is a few years before I am on a boat again- 

I don't see how for example the late fall can be a timeline when there is nothing showing cases will slow. Case growth will exponentially not be negated quickly by vaccines.Over time yes- but not right away

[wowzz]

9 hours ago, ziggyuk said:

 

But this was in reference to the UK, our government has pledged to vaccinate 15 million by mid February which is 1/4 of the population. They have further pledged to vaccinate 2 million a week of the remaining 45 million.

Obviously they will need to start on 2nd shots after 3 months so that 2 million will become 1 million new people.
Even if the government don't achieve their plans, and lets be honest, they rarely do, the country will still be a very different place by May.

 

The plan to have all healthcare, all vulnerable and all over 70's vaccinated by mid February will in itself change the situation considerably.

 

We won't be back to normal by May but I am confident we will be well on the way.

 

To be honest, it doesn't really matter what you or I think. But, in all seriousness,  given the current situation, do you think the UK  government will allow 3000 pax, plus crew, to sail to and from the UK in May? I think we'll be lucky if the pubs are open in May, let alone go on a cruise.

[ziggyuk]

11 minutes ago, wowzz said:

 

To be honest, it doesn't really matter what you or I think. But, in all seriousness,  given the current situation, do you think the UK  government will allow 3000 pax, plus crew, to sail to and from the UK in May? I think we'll be lucky if the pubs are open in May, let alone go on a cruise.

 

It does not leave the UK, that's the point it visits no other countries, May is 4 months away so we are not talking about the current situation are we. Incidentally, it a half full ship.