Will P&O now delay announcements for future cruise pauses?

[pete14]

28 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Thanks. I hope that’s right. I was going by what Matt Hancock said when he announced it and he repeated it several times in response to questions. He said 530k due next week with the next batch due early Feb (which he seemed unsure was 2 or 3m). I was horrified when I heard that, as it is a drop in the ocean compared to the numbers we need. I know that we have bought enough to vaccinate 50m people, which will obviously be enough to vaccinate everyone over 50, but I am becoming suspicious about how vague they are being about when they will all be delivered. Perhaps they don’t know? Anyway, time will tell as we get updates on the numbers vaccinated, but the fact remains that they need to be vaccinating 2m a week, every week, to just get the over 65’s done by Easter. Meanwhile, everyone over 50 remains vulnerable as this wretched virus continues to spiral out of control. 

I also heard what Matt Hancock said and understood it the way you did. The BBC question touched upon it and was not answered but there was no follow up to clarify. Several government spokespeople / experts / journalists have now implied that vaccine will be delivered throughout January, hopefully they know more than the Health Minister.  It has also been stated that manufacturing the vaccine is not an issue, but manufacturing the glass phials it is drawn from is. This was first raised a few months ago but repeated yesterday. 
It was interesting this morning listening to Ben Wallace, the defence minister. He said that even though many army medics are reservists who work in the NHS anyway, there are 250 teams of army medics standing by to administer 750,000 vaccinations a week, provided the supply is there and provided the NHS ask them to do so. The former may be a stumbling block, the latter should be a complete formality (shouldn’t it). 

[terrierjohn]

7 minutes ago, wowzz said:

You missed the bit where Boris said there would be "tens of millions" of doses available in the spring! 

Just for once, I wish he would stop the hyperbole and give us some facts.

If he does not know the full situation, which seems to be evolving and the bottleneck is with filling and packaging the phials, then why criticise him for not being able to give a detailed answer.

[pete14]

1 minute ago, terrierjohn said:

If he does not know the full situation, which seems to be evolving and the bottleneck is with filling and packaging the phials, then why criticise him for not being able to give a detailed answer.

I would respect him more if he said he couldn’t give an answer because... instead of guessing or lying.

[cruisenewbie1976]

5 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Believing late April for first proper cruise with phased introduction of ships over following months. Might see tester cruise early April.

 

They are working to timetable set out by Government!!!!

I was close ish 🤣

[davecttr]

54 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

The 530k isn't the full amount for January. Its just the initial batch. It wasn't explained very well by MPs (no surprise there!) but has been clarified via several sources since. There'll be regular deliveries of vaccines throughout January. 

Sources please

[cruisenewbie1976]

4 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Sources please

Try Google 😉

[davecttr]

Just now, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Try Google 😉

Very helpful thanks 🙄

[yorkshirephil]

1 minute ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Try Google 😉

Problem is who to believe, he said she said.

[Adawn47]

7 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Believing late April for first proper cruise with phased introduction of ships over following months. Might see tester cruise early April.

 

They are working to timetable set out by Government!!!!

I don't think they will be expecting me to pay the balance of our cruise by the end of March then, or if they do, they are going to be sadly disappointed.

Avril

[cruisenewbie1976]

Just now, davecttr said:

Very helpful thanks 🙄

🤣 I don't keep a list of everywhere that I've seen it. The AZ chief was on BBC news last night, he said it. A journalist also confirmed it was the case on twitter (I already posted a screen shot yesterday) and I've seen various other mentions of it on twitter. After listening to Matt H, I understood it as a lot of others did, that we were getting 530k in January and that was it until February. So I was searching for some clarification. Let's face it though, I think we've just got to see what happens to get the real numbers. These things seem to change from one day to the next. It'll be very disappointing if we've not done a few million by the end of January. 

[AnnieC]

12 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Try Google 😉

I have and couldn't find anything. Do you have a link, please.🙂

[Eglesbrech]

So far the percentage of the population vaccinated is

 

Scotland 1.69

England 0.93

Wales 0.72

NI 0.85 

 

The Scottish figures are to 28 December, the others stop at 21 December which is why they are lower.

 

They have been doing this for several weeks now. The rate will obviously increase with the new vaccine being available but there is a long way to go.

 

The Scottish health secretary is still saying (on the radio this morning) that the over 50s will be done by the end of spring but with the caveat vaccine allowing.

 

At least there is some hope for normality even if it takes a while yet.

[Selbourne]

30 minutes ago, wowzz said:

You missed the bit where Boris said there would be "tens of millions" of doses available in the spring! 

Just for once, I wish he would stop the hyperbole and give us some facts.

Well I guess he might be right about that, but 6 months time is still Spring and unless we start vaccinating several million a week immediately we will overshoot even that timescale - and that’s just for the over 65’s. Can’t see us ‘youngsters’ being done until the summer at the very earliest. As ever, I hope I am proved wrong, but just doing the basic arithmetic it isn’t looking good.  

[cruisenewbie1976]

14 minutes ago, AnnieC said:

I have and couldn't find anything. Do you have a link, please.🙂

I'm sorry, I don't have links. I've seen it from various people on twitter (the one I do remember is the journalist Jane Merrick - she originally reported it as 530k and then posted a clarification saying that that was just the first batch). 

The AZ boss was also on BBC news last night and said that the 530k is just the first lot. 

I suspect no one really knows an actual number yet and that's why we're getting very vague explanations all round. 

Edited December 31, 2020 by cruisenewbie1976
Typo

[terrierjohn]

9 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Well I guess he might be right about that, but 6 months time is still Spring and unless we start vaccinating several million a week immediately we will overshoot even that timescale - and that’s just for the over 65’s. Can’t see us ‘youngsters’ being done until the summer at the very earliest. As ever, I hope I am proved wrong, but just doing the basic arithmetic it isn’t looking good.  

JVT did tell you not to try and extrapolate from the December data, when trying to guesstimate when the vaccination might reach which age group.

[Selbourne]

1 minute ago, terrierjohn said:

JVT did tell you not to try and extrapolate from the December data, when trying to guesstimate when the vaccination might reach which age group.

He did, and that’s not what I am doing. If we extrapolate based on the tiny numbers vaccinated so far then it’s significantly worse than I am saying, three or four times worse in fact. I am going on the basic maths of the numbers that need vaccinating and the number of weeks left until the end of Spring, which is when we are told we will be vaccinated by. 

[Dermotsgirl]

51 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Believing late April for first proper cruise with phased introduction of ships over following months. Might see tester cruise early April.

 

They are working to timetable set out by Government!!!!

I think you first said this a few months ago?
 

Since then, things have changed a lot. We now have a much more infectious strain of the virus which has resulted in exponential growth in infections. As a result, the hospitals are stretched to the limit, and there’s no let up in sight. We are going to be in a dark place for the next few months.

 

Thankfully, vaccinations  are on their way, but realistically, it is going to take months and months to get the population vaccinated to the extent that Covid is no longer a major threat. That’s only this country, there’s all the ports that the ships will visit to consider too. Plus the crew. 
 

This more infectious variant must surely be a factor to consider when thinking about the restart of cruises. The very nature of the closed shipboard community is conducive to the spread of viruses, and if the new variant got on board, it would spread like wildfire.

 

I can’t see a restart happening in April in any way, shape, or form 

 

Sorry.

[jaydee6969]

1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

Believing late April for first proper cruise with phased introduction of ships over following months. Might see tester cruise early April.

 

They are working to timetable set out by Government!!!!

 

Good, looking forward to some positive news for a change.

 

2021, the year to be positive.

 

Will keep an eye out for tester cruises, hopefully nearest to the terminal can get priority🤣

Could walk to the terminal if required, dragging my case along the mutant mile, about an hours walk for me.

[yorkshirephil]

8 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

I think you first said this a few months ago?
 

Since then, things have changed a lot. We now have a much more infectious strain of the virus which has resulted in exponential growth in infections. As a result, the hospitals are stretched to the limit, and there’s no let up in sight. We are going to be in a dark place for the next few months.

 

Thankfully, vaccinations  are on their way, but realistically, it is going to take months and months to get the population vaccinated to the extent that Covid is no longer a major threat. That’s only this country, there’s all the ports that the ships will visit to consider too. Plus the crew. 
 

This more infectious variant must surely be a factor to consider when thinking about the restart of cruises. The very nature of the closed shipboard community is conducive to the spread of viruses, and if the new variant got on board, it would spread like wildfire.

 

I can’t see a restart happening in April in any way, shape, or form 

 

Sorry.

I am tempted to agree on cruising not restarting in April, and I have never wanted to be more wrong.

[Selbourne]

35 minutes ago, Dermotsgirl said:

I think you first said this a few months ago?
 

Since then, things have changed a lot. We now have a much more infectious strain of the virus which has resulted in exponential growth in infections. As a result, the hospitals are stretched to the limit, and there’s no let up in sight. We are going to be in a dark place for the next few months.

 

Thankfully, vaccinations  are on their way, but realistically, it is going to take months and months to get the population vaccinated to the extent that Covid is no longer a major threat. That’s only this country, there’s all the ports that the ships will visit to consider too. Plus the crew. 
 

This more infectious variant must surely be a factor to consider when thinking about the restart of cruises. The very nature of the closed shipboard community is conducive to the spread of viruses, and if the new variant got on board, it would spread like wildfire.

 

I can’t see a restart happening in April in any way, shape, or form 

 

Sorry.

Sadly, I agree on all points. It’s going to take a lot more than wishful thinking or unending optimism to get cruise ships sailing again. Everything is going against them at present. Even the vaccinations are going at a slower rate than the new numbers infected. 

[Ardennais]

1 hour ago, Dermotsgirl said:

I think you first said this a few months ago?
 

Since then, things have changed a lot. We now have a much more infectious strain of the virus which has resulted in exponential growth in infections. As a result, the hospitals are stretched to the limit, and there’s no let up in sight. We are going to be in a dark place for the next few months.

 

Thankfully, vaccinations  are on their way, but realistically, it is going to take months and months to get the population vaccinated to the extent that Covid is no longer a major threat. That’s only this country, there’s all the ports that the ships will visit to consider too. Plus the crew. 
 

This more infectious variant must surely be a factor to consider when thinking about the restart of cruises. The very nature of the closed shipboard community is conducive to the spread of viruses, and if the new variant got on board, it would spread like wildfire.

 

I can’t see a restart happening in April in any way, shape, or form 

 

Sorry.

No need to apologise! I think you’re spot on, unfortunately. 

[nosapphire]

Well, the Vaccine Queue Calculator has just updated itself to take into consideration the extended gap between jabs, and the 65plus group has slipped from middle to end of March to sometime between middle May and middle June to complete both doses.

They are based on 1million being vaccinated per week, with an uptake of 70.6%, so not being either overly pessimistic or overly optimistic.

 

https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

 

[Angel57]

22 minutes ago, nosapphire said:

Well, the Vaccine Queue Calculator has just updated itself to take into consideration the extended gap between jabs, and the 65plus group has slipped from middle to end of March to sometime between middle May and middle June to complete both doses.

They are based on 1million being vaccinated per week, with an uptake of 70.6%, so not being either overly pessimistic or overly optimistic.

 

https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

 

OMG It is now calculating that I should have had second dose between mid Sept and mid Oct. Hope it’s being pessimistic..... (I’m 60-64 group)

[Selbourne]

8 minutes ago, nosapphire said:

Well, the Vaccine Queue Calculator has just updated itself to take into consideration the extended gap between jabs, and the 65plus group has slipped from middle to end of March to sometime between middle May and middle June to complete both doses.

They are based on 1million being vaccinated per week, with an uptake of 70.6%, so not being either overly pessimistic or overly optimistic.

 

https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

 

I don’t believe that those online calculators have an ounce of credibility, as perhaps has been proved by the change you mention! We know the numbers of those needing jabs (25m, of which 12m are over 65, and 2m are health workers) and the number of weeks until Easter or the end of Spring (whichever we believe), but what nobody knows yet is how many will be done per week. There are so many determining factors, not least the fact that, if Matt Hancock is correct, we are only getting 530k doses next week and then the next batch of 2-3m in early Feb. Impossible at present for anyone, human or calculator, to predict when we will each receive our jabs but I fear that anyone holding their breath is going to suffocate before they are protected from covid 

[Angel57]

1 minute ago, Selbourne said:

I don’t believe that those online calculators have an ounce of credibility, as perhaps has been proved by the change you mention! We know the numbers of those needing jabs (25m, of which 12m are over 65, and 2m are health workers) and the number of weeks until Easter or the end of Spring (whichever we believe), but what nobody knows yet is how many will be done per week. There are so many determining factors, not least the fact that, if Matt Hancock is correct, we are only getting 530k doses next week and then the next batch of 2-3m in early Feb. Impossible at present for anyone, human or calculator, to predict when we will each receive our jabs but I fear that anyone holding their breath is going to suffocate before they are protected from covid 

I agree with what you say Selbourne.

Sadly I think the under 65s will be waiting some considerable time for their 1st jabs.