Anyone else reevaluating?

[kirtihk]

1 hour ago, Sthrngary said:

Two ways to look at this.  First, Stress Disorder it a real thing.  We think we are out and we are right back in it again.  Makes you wonder if this will ever be  normal again.  Second, stress disorder due to lack of cruises.  Both contribute to a level of depression.  That folks is dangerous.  Let attempt to help each other through quite frankly a very serious time.  Live well and Cruise well everyone.

So much appreciated! This is the best reply I’ve got for all these long months! Thank you very much!

[kirtihk]

1 hour ago, HMR74 said:

I was listening to a podcast during the day and the issue was the PCR being discontinued. The assertion was that the PCR does not adeqately distinguish between covid and normal flu. I did doze off during  the  podcast but the gist was that , drum roll, many with flu virus were classified with covid. Tune in in a few months to learn what really happened, especially after the book written by an austrailian news reporter is released in late September.

 

 

 

I have no doubts about it (one cannot cheat nature by manipulating words and reality).

[RocketMan275]

On 8/1/2021 at 5:01 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

Incorrect- the trade off is a more accurate test with fewer false positive and negative results which is why a PCR test is so valuable. Antigen tests are used as a first choice due to cost. When a positive is triggered a follow up (much more accurate) PCR test is administered. The FDA and Harvard links on test accuracy are good reading.

For any given test, the developer is trading off false positives and negative results.  The number of cycles for a PCR test changes the distribution of false positives and negatives.  The PCR has been criticized for its use at 40+ cycles.  At that level,  you'll get few false negatives but more false positives.  Lowering the number of cycles changes that ratio.  Early in this pandemic, they didn't want to let false negatives slip through so the increased the number of cycles.  Caught almost all the false negatives but at the cost of increasing the false positives.

[HMR74]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

For any given test, the developer is trading off false positives and negative results.  The number of cycles for a PCR test changes the distribution of false positives and negatives.  The PCR has been criticized for its use at 40+ cycles.  At that level,  you'll get few false negatives but more false positives.  Lowering the number of cycles changes that ratio.  Early in this pandemic, they didn't want to let false negatives slip through so the increased the number of cycles.  Caught almost all the false negatives but at the cost of increasing the false positives.

I agree there is the scoring issue with the  PCR issue but concurrent with the cruise lines (RCCL, "X", NCR) now rewquiring a PCR or antigen test inside of 3 days, the CDC announced that effective 12/31/21 it would stop using the PCR by saying it would not extend the EUA. Not a warm cuddly feeling.

 

The assumption for that is that the test is ineffective and misleading, in fact its the only assumption given the info we have, escept speculation  that the test does not differentiate between covid and the "the " flu. But the problem is now for whatever the reason, the cruise  lines are using a questionable test procedure. The one thats been used the last year thats created the need for a bunch of issues and probems incluing the suspension of cruise service.

 

Regardless we are still left with the logistical issue surrounding getting  the test and results inside the 72 hour window and rectifying false positives in that time frame, when many of us had planned to be near the port 1-3 days before the cruise. 

 

I will put aside the cost of such a test on a hurry up basis.

This is like a simultaneaous equation, difficult to solve to everybody's satisfaction.

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by HMR74

[Karaboudjan]

1 hour ago, HMR74 said:

I agree there is the scoring issue with the  PCR issue but concurrent with the cruise lines (RCCL, "X", NCR) now rewquiring a PCR or antigen test inside of 3 days, the CDC announced that effective 12/31/21 it would stop using the PCR by saying it would not extend the EUA. Not a warm cuddly feeling.

 

The assumption for that is that the test is ineffective and misleading, in fact its the only assumption given the info we have, escept speculation  that the test does not differentiate between covid and the "the " flu. But the problem is now for whatever the reason, the cruise  lines are using a questionable test procedure. The one thats been used the last year thats created the need for a bunch of issues and probems incluing the suspension of cruise service.

 

Regardless we are still left with the logistical issue surrounding getting  the test and results inside the 72 hour window and rectifying false positives in that time frame, when many of us had planned to be near the port 1-3 days before the cruise. 

 

I will put aside the cost of such a test on a hurry up basis.

This is like a simultaneaous equation, difficult to solve to everybody's satisfaction.

 

 

If I am understanding things correctly the CDC is withdrawing the EUA request for one of its PCR tests because it has a newer one that it believes is preferable.  It also appears that there are numerous other PCR tests from other manufacturers.  So that announcement is not saying that PCR tests as a whole are going away.

[RocketMan275]

1 hour ago, HMR74 said:

 

 

The assumption for that is that the test is ineffective and misleading, in fact its the only assumption given the info we have, escept speculation  that the test does not differentiate between covid and the "the " flu.

 

The reason given for replacing the test was that the new test was faster and cheaper, not that the old test was somehow deficient.

[HMR74]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

The reason given for replacing the test was that the new test was faster and cheaper, not that the old test was somehow deficient.

so, why did the CDC not just say the current test is being replaced by a new better faster and cheaper test. It did say in its press release that this will give time for those that need to find a new test to do that.

And its coincidental to the cruise lines requiring the test.

 

If the new test is already plentiful and faster better and cheaper, then its fine. Perhaps the cruise lines can advise where we can get those faster better and cheaper tests done. It would be nice to fly to MIA or FLL a day or two early, run over to a Walgreens or CVS, go to lunch or dinner and then go get the results to give to cruise line.

Better than having to funnel a thousand or 3,000 at the port for the test and have a bottleneck there which waswhat  happened this past Weekend.

[davencl]

34 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

so, why did the CDC not just say the current test is being replaced by a new better faster and cheaper test. It did say in its press release that this will give time for those that need to find a new test to do that.

And its coincidental to the cruise lines requiring the test.

 

If the new test is already plentiful and faster better and cheaper, then its fine. Perhaps the cruise lines can advise where we can get those faster better and cheaper tests done. It would be nice to fly to MIA or FLL a day or two early, run over to a Walgreens or CVS, go to lunch or dinner and then go get the results to give to cruise line.

Better than having to funnel a thousand or 3,000 at the port for the test and have a bottleneck there which waswhat  happened this past Weekend.

NCL isn't currently using those tests so doesn't affect them.

[Karaboudjan]

13 hours ago, davencl said:

NCL isn't currently using those tests so doesn't affect them.

And who even knows what your local testing facility uses.  I tried to find that out for CVS and they don't appear to give those details.  Maybe they use different sources depending on the location of the store.

[podgeandrodge]

I am currently now re-evaluating, as I have a hold on a 26th Sept EPIC cruise, but the 5th Sept cruise has just disappeared off their website.  Customer Service say they have no idea why.  That does not encourage me to pay deposit and final payment in next couple of weeks.

[podgeandrodge]

Been onto NCL again, and they insist sailing is not cancelled, just reached capacity, so sailing taken off website.

[JamieLogical]

I just came back from the Celebrity Equinox on Sunday. It was a FANTASTIC cruise and the fact that 95%+ were fully vaccinated made it feel pretty much completely normal onboard. We had no masks and no social distancing for passengers. Crew did still wear masks. In ports, St. Thomas had the strictest masking requirements, but it was honestly no big deal. Honestly, the worst part of the trip for me was getting stuck in Ft. Lauderdale airport for 10 hours due to a mechanical issue with our plane, but that could happen any time and had nothing to do with COVID.

 

My husband and I are booked on the September 26 sailing on the Breakaway, along with my parents. I definitely won't hesitate to sail on that cruise unless masking is required on board. I wouldn't mind the masking, but my Dad seems to think it is akin to having bamboo shoots shoved under his fingernails, so he would be miserable to travel with if he still decided to come. My husband and I did an all inclusive in Cancun in April (after we were both fully vaccinated) and had to wear masks indoors and it was fine for us.

[craig01020]

1 hour ago, JamieLogical said:

My husband and I are booked on the September 26 sailing on the Breakaway

My wife and I are on Breakaway on Oct. 10 (God willing).

We cancelled our Greece cruise in favor of Bermuda to avoid flying and potentially getting quarantined in a foreign country.

 

I wish I had gone to Greece in May or June when they first re-opened. 😠

[RocketMan275]

19 hours ago, HMR74 said:

so, why did the CDC not just say the current test is being replaced by a new better faster and cheaper test. It did say in its press release that this will give time for those that need to find a new test to do that.

Contrary to what  you might have read on the internet, they did say that. 

[Sue Do-Over]

Is there any benefit to waiting for NCL to cancel, before we pull the plug ourselves?

 

Booked on a Casino offer September 19th out of Athens, Greece.   We used CruiseNext vouchers to cover the admin fees ($140pp to Casino at Sea) and port fees.

 

Our airfare is fully refundable, so the only cost I know for sure is the AirBnB.

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

Contrary to what  you might have read on the internet, they did say that. 

 

This is what the CDC said regarding failure to renew the Emergency Use Authorization in January for the use of PCR testing.

 

"CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses"

Lab Alert: Changes to CDC RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 Testing

 

Does this not imply that the EAU PCR test that has been used all along could not differentiate between Covid and Influenza?? If I have read this incorrectly, can you please point me to a place that indicates that the PCR test we have all been using can successfully differentiate between Covid and the flu?

 

This is concerning to me personally because I have been telling all my friends to use PCR over antigen due to the high false positive rates for antigen tests. Now it appears they are both wildly inaccurate? Where am I wrong?

[HMR74]

16 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

Contrary to what  you might have read on the internet, they did say that. 

here is the CDC post on internet site:

its suggest sthat we find tests that differentiate between flu and covid. Good idea, but is that saying the current test they relied on did not differentiate between flu and covid. Or by ending the current preferred test, are they saying its inadequate, of has been superceded? CDC was not clear on that either.

 

I am just trying to get a handle on it and at same time try to find a way that we see a cost reduction. And it woudld be  interesting to learn if all the covd tests taken the last 18 months did  or did not  differenciate between covid and flu, just becase the CDC raised the issue in this posting. 

 

I am not an atty but I wil be staying at a Holiday Inn before my next cruise. (joke)

 

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

 

Seriously, I need to know what hoops we may have to jump thru to just get on board.

[Karaboudjan]

10 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

This is what the CDC said regarding failure to renew the Emergency Use Authorization in January for the use of PCR testing.

 

"CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses"

Lab Alert: Changes to CDC RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 Testing

 

Does this not imply that the EAU PCR test that has been used all along could not differentiate between Covid and Influenza?? If I have read this incorrectly, can you please point me to a place that indicates that the PCR test we have all been using can successfully differentiate between Covid and the flu?

 

This is concerning to me personally because I have been telling all my friends to use PCR over antigen due to the high false positive rates for antigen tests. Now it appears they are both wildly inaccurate? Where am I wrong?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/07/29/fact-check-cdc-test-doesnt-conflate-covid-19-virus-influenza/5388263001/

[HMR74]

34 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/07/29/fact-check-cdc-test-doesnt-conflate-covid-19-virus-influenza/5388263001/

its that highlighted line that says a lot but says not much at the same time. Does it mean the current test does not  and thats why its being put aside, or does it mean the current test does and we need to find one that differentiates. Yeah, I am putting on my atty hat now, and seeing some "wordsmithing" going on.

 

The other problem is, before I would want to fly down to port, with a group of 8, I would like to have a pretty good feeling we (the adults that havebeen vaccinated and kids who have not been)) all continue to test negative.  And not be subjected to  last minute costly  cancellations, perhaps quaranteins, and wasted flights.  Better I should know early than late.

 

Eg, before I can reconsider what to do I better be able to understand whats happening and all the options I have.

 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by HMR74

[AwesomO]

Previous PCR tests only tested you for COVID. They could tell you if you had COVID or not at that's it. So if you have a cough and sniffles and fever and you took one of those tests, if it came back negative, that meant you don't have COVID but whatever you do have was a mystery. If it was positive, that meant you had COVID. It was not an inaccurate test that would turn positive if you also had the flu. The new tests can test for both COVID and influenza. The test results will list a positive or negative for each type of virus. So you could be negative for COVID but possibly positive for influenza. My husband had one of these done earlier in the year. His also tested for RSV. Each virus was listed separately so you knew what you were testing positive/negative for. 

[HMR74]

So, all the false positive were for???

From what I understand everybody has a little of hte viruse.

The US set the testiing bar at 42 and only recently reduced it to 28 (the higher the number the better off you are).

 

So there is a whole lot of multidimensional "Fudge Factor" involved with this.

As to the "fact checkers" if you have  ever been in a decent sized court case the plaintiff and defendant each bring in credible expert witnesses. Who proceed to support totally different views. Money talks.

 

So I have been jaded by years of watching various biases and stubbornesses. Boils down to instinct and just whom do you trust. Not all the time. But a lot.

[LouChamp]

On 7/28/2021 at 10:25 AM, winterbliss said:

I'm probably not supposed to say this but have you considered the notion that until well people stop getting tested, that this will not change?

Your position is akin to having your head in the sand.

[AwesomO]

False positives can happen with most any tests. Fortunately most don't require you to isolate as a result, but they do typically warrant further testing. Hopefully tests get increasingly more accurate and less frequent. 

 

My personal opinion is that the best we can hope for with COVID is that enough people get vaccinated or reach natural immunity so that a simple case of sniffles no longer requires testing and isolation. It's not going away, but as long as hospitalizations and deaths go down, hopefully we can treat it as any other seasonal illness we deal with for the majority of the population. Maybe by my 2023 cruise we won't have to keep testing... 🤞

[HMR74]

35 minutes ago, AwesomO said:

False positives can happen with most any tests. Fortunately most don't require you to isolate as a result, but they do typically warrant further testing. Hopefully tests get increasingly more accurate and less frequent. 

 

My personal opinion is that the best we can hope for with COVID is that enough people get vaccinated or reach natural immunity so that a simple case of sniffles no longer requires testing and isolation. It's not going away, but as long as hospitalizations and deaths go down, hopefully we can treat it as any other seasonal illness we deal with for the majority of the population. Maybe by my 2023 cruise we won't have to keep testing... 🤞

Geeze, if this is not resolved by 2023 we have immense problems.

 

Far more than our planned cruises.

Edited August 4, 2021 by HMR74

[AwesomO]

6 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

Geeze, if this is not resolved by 2023 we have immense problems.

 

Far more than our planned cruises.

Earlier this year I thought I was booked far enough in advanced to have confidence that they would have it all figured out but I haven't been reassured by NCL or the current state of affairs.