When is the "surcharge" coming?

[ONECRUISER]

19 minutes ago, topnole said:

Remember that year when there was the lime shortage?  One cruise we were on they had no lines from day 1.   They were putting lemons in corona beer on the ship.  Lol.  

The Horror! 😁

[neverbeenhere]

https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/468133-cruise-line-royal-caribbean-cuts-hsfo-hedging-for-scrubber-equipped-fleet

[DirtyDawg]

1 minute ago, neverbeenhere said:

https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/468133-cruise-line-royal-caribbean-cuts-hsfo-hedging-for-scrubber-equipped-fleet

That article is from February 2020. That was one pandemic ago!

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, neverbeenhere said:

https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/468133-cruise-line-royal-caribbean-cuts-hsfo-hedging-for-scrubber-equipped-fleet

You will note the reasons for cutting their hedging of HSFO, that it is no longer the dominant fuel in the marine market, and supply in all ports could be affected, so they are moving to LSFO, even for their scrubber equipped ships, and merely using the scrubbers only when in the North America ECA.  The other suggested reason is that since the market for HSFO will be soft, as demand drops (most ships using LSFO), they can take advantage of spot market drops in price for HSFO.

 

There was some doubt prior to the IMO's regulation moving to LSFO that refineries could keep up with demand, and that seems to not be proving out.  Also, many refineries cannot produce LSFO, and will be looking to "unload" this unwanted end product of distillation at bargain prices.  Even in today's market, while LSFO tracks similarly to HSFO, with a rising trend, the differential is increasing, going from $100/mt back in Nov, to $150/mt today.  Only about 34% of the 50,000 merchant ships in the world have scrubbers, while a majority of cruise ships have at least some installed, so the market for HSFO, which requires a scrubber, is small.

[crewsweeper]

 

2 hours ago, topnole said:

Remember that year when there was the lime shortage?  One cruise we were on they had no lines from day 1.   They were putting lemons in corona beer on the ship.  Lol.  

 

2 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

The Horror! 😁

Yes, it's horrible to put either lime or lemon in a lager.   Pure marketing gimmick by Constellation. Waste of both fruit and beer.

[topnole]

15 minutes ago, crewsweeper said:

 

 

Yes, it's horrible to put either lime or lemon in a lager.   Pure marketing gimmick by Constellation. Waste of both fruit and beer.

I agree.  Not the what I prefer, but it obviously appeals to many.   A lemon is not a substitute, however.  My wife had one and couldn’t get past the first sip.  It was funny watching anyone drinking a corona on that cruise.  Thinking back, I wonder why they didn’t try oranges instead.  Probably too expensive.  

[Joseph2017China]

I'm worried more about them running out of toilet paper than the fuel surcharge.

[At Sea At Peace]

19 hours ago, DirtyDawg said:

Chill fellow cruisers.

Royal doesn't pay for fuel when they pull up to the pumps like we do. They hedge their fuel costs with Swaps, Forward contracts etc. So most of their fuel costs are likely already fixed for 2022. Short term volatility in oil prices does not affect their costs in the short term. If prices go to $120 or $140, and stay there for awhile,  2023 fuel costs would ne affected. So surcharges might come then. 

Of course, the cruise lines might try to plead poverty and impose fuel surcharges early. 😉

 

Frankly, I'd be more worried about a shrimp surcharge or a steak surcharge or a booze surcharge. 🤯

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/16/off-the-charts-inflation-will-force-beer-prices-to-go-up-heineken-warns

 

 

As another has linked, they are only hedged via swaps 19% for 2021 (down from 54% for 2020), 19% for 2022 and 5% for 2023.

 

The annual average cost per metric ton of the hedge fuel was $430, $463, $554 and $580 for those years respectively.

 

At September 30, 2021, they had revised that to 28% for 2022 and still 5% for 2023.  At that date they had 419,700 metric tons under such.  Their consumption is tougher to compare, based upon ships, load, etc. and was 375,200 in the 1st Quarter of 2020.  So, somewhere around 3-4 months of hedged fuel costs.

 

As @chengkp75 pointed out, depending on the fuel type, for which there is a $150 'spread' on, ship fuel now is almost as high as its' March 2012 high.

 

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/surging-price-of-ship-fuel-poised-to-eclipse-all-time-high

 

 

 

 

 

 

[grandgeezer]

6 hours ago, SRF said:

 

2022 fuel contract was probably negotiated 5 years ago.

I have no knowledge on how hedging is done when it pertains to cruise ship fuel, but I do have experience in hedging.

1994 through 2001 I hedged natural gas for one of the biggest paper mills in the Midwest. At the time, you could only do one year at a time, unless you have a crystal ball to predict the future, who would want to do more? You can only hedge an exact amount, not open to whatever you happen to use. I did it monthly based on sales predictions. You do pay a fee, per unit, in my case per million cubic feet, and you pay it on the amount hedged, not on how much you used. To be on the safe side the hedged amount was about 90-95% of forecasted usage. 

[Blizzard54]

5 hours ago, topnole said:

Remember that year when there was the lime shortage?  One cruise we were on they had no lines from day 1.   They were putting lemons in corona beer on the ship.  Lol.  

The crew was calling them yellow limes.

[Baowen]

Wow - flashback!  I totally forgot about the fuel surcharges !

Beth

[DirtyDawg]

2 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

At September 30, 2021, they had revised that to 28% for 2022 and still 5% for 2023.  At that date they had 419,700 metric tons under such.  Their consumption is tougher to compare, based upon ships, load, etc. and was 375,200 in the 1st Quarter of 2020.  So, somewhere around 3-4 months of hedged fuel costs.

 

As of December 31st, 2021 they were 54% hedged for 2022 and 15% for 2023 according to their quarterly public schedule. So about 6 months worth hedged as of the latest public data. Who knows were it is today. As I said, chill. 🍻

[At Sea At Peace]

28 minutes ago, DirtyDawg said:

As of December 31st, 2021 they were 54% hedged for 2022 and 15% for 2023 according to their quarterly public schedule. So about 6 months worth hedged as of the latest public data. Who knows were it is today. As I said, chill. 🍻

 

You do realize that a hedge (fuel swap) created after October 27, 2021 (date of issuance of 10Q for September 30th) was created under the existing price of fuel swaps based on the then current fuel prices and projected?  Meaning, such hedge's are undertaken with existing fuel costs as a 'floor' and future fuel costs expected to be higher (hence the reason to hedge), at a cost, resulting in a net hedge cost later disclosed with gains or (losses) on the hedge 'bet.'

 

So, here's the fuel swap you reference ~

 

For all of 2022 and 2023, the annual average cost per metric ton of the fuel swap portfolio is approximately $490, and $515, respectively. 

 

Don't know about the aside "chill."  It is a simple fact to all, everywhere, that fuel costs have increased.  Likely, some who can't afford such are a bit "chilled" from such at the personal level.  😟

[DirtyDawg]

57 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

You do realize that a hedge (fuel swap) created after October 27, 2021 (date of issuance of 10Q for September 30th) was created under the existing price of fuel swaps based on the then current fuel prices and projected?  Meaning, such hedge's are undertaken with existing fuel costs as a 'floor' and future fuel costs expected to be higher (hence the reason to hedge), at a cost, resulting in a net hedge cost later disclosed with gains or (losses) on the hedge 'bet.'

 

So, here's the fuel swap you reference ~

 

For all of 2022 and 2023, the annual average cost per metric ton of the fuel swap portfolio is approximately $490, and $515, respectively. 

 

Don't know about the aside "chill."  It is a simple fact to all, everywhere, that fuel costs have increased.  Likely, some who can't afford such are a bit "chilled" from such at the personal level.  😟

Yes. Thank you for asking.

 

As for 'Chill', I was addressing the OP who was worried that the forecasted spike in oil prices due to the Ukraine invasion might result in  a return of the fuel surcharge. It looks like you do not agree. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by DirtyDawg

[Jingerwoppy]

I would think the cruise lines have contracts to control their prices for an extended period and the surcharge would only come in as those contracts expire and the new ones are signed.  The airlines also have these contracts.

 

Anyone familiar with this?

[PC Skier]

With all the covid resting before you can get on the ship, wearing masks even if vaccinated   and now a fuel charge I think we are going to go back to destination vacations and skip cruising. And we usually cruise 6 weeks a year.

 

[SRF]

On 2/25/2022 at 12:54 PM, crewsweeper said:

 

 

Yes, it's horrible to put either lime or lemon in a lager.   Pure marketing gimmick by Constellation. Waste of both fruit and beer.

 

The original purpose of the lime was to clean the lip of the bottle and help sanitize.  Not to shove it in the bottle.   😄

 

Now, Tecate is meant to have lime squeezed into it.  But not to stuff the lime into the can or bottle.  We used to joke, when you can no long hit the opening with the lime, time to stop drinking.