You guys are smart..I am not

[garyc20]

Going to France, Spain and Portugal in August..should we be worried about all the chaos in Ukraine?

[Hawaiidan]

34 minutes ago, garyc20 said:

Going to France, Spain and Portugal in August..should we be worried about all the chaos in Ukraine?

Maybe,  OR MAYBE NOT.... 

 

 TOO MANY VARIABLES..   and Russia  and China/ Syria are the wild cards 

This is a very fluid situation with a lot of players....... Unless your pals with Putin and can give him a call to find out what  he intends to do. 

 

  Also the NATO and western allies may choose all sorts of intervention based  what is happening.      Based of  Russian past performance, the conflict could last to the end of the year. or longer.

 

I am on a August Sept cruise too.  and sitting , like you in wonder, sipping my vodka and lime ( non Russian)         

However, my gut level feeling is at some point the world is going to demand  physical intervention.

With the Russians keeping up  Hitler like, continuous barbaric acts....   At some point  some moral  point of intolerance will be reached.    When does the world community say enough????.. 

I am more worried about China and North Korea coming to Russian aid and making plays of their own IF the world community does nothing  serious to stop Russia.   By serious, I mean direct  military physical interaction, not sanctions and diplomacy games...       

 Thats my opinion...  just saying   lots of options.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Hawaiidan

[Mura]

Personally, I wouldn't risk it so soon.  Heard a prediction on some news program to day that this situation could last for months if not years. I would like to think that the supporters of Ukraine would work faster to minimize the danger and damage, but that's jut a wish.

 

But also I wouldn't go to these countries in the summertime ... although we have spent a fair amount of time in Portugal in August, but it was always in the north.  Lisbon should be fine ...

 

JMO

 

 

[YoPhilly]

Although it sounds kind of crass to comment on the horrors of this war in terms of a cruise vacation, I'm hoping the Black Sea and port of Istanbul don't become mired in the conflict.

[Mura]

The idea that the Black Sea and Istanbul won't be affected (assuming the conflict continues for a time) is something I cannot contemplate.  we're so glad we did O's Black Sea cruise in 2012 when we saw Crimea, Odessa and some Russian locations.  Won't be going there again, I suspect ...

[LNielsen]

10 minutes ago, Mura said:

The idea that the Black Sea and Istanbul won't be affected (assuming the conflict continues for a time) is something I cannot contemplate.  

Hi Mura!

 

Laura here, so good to “see” you.  We have a cruise going to Istanbul October 2023 and have our doubts that we will make it there even that far out.    Glad we went a few years ago.   I’ve told John we’ll see what happens and switch it up if need be.  

[Roccaforte]

You can Google the US Department of State travel advisories to see what countries are at level 4, which is high risk.  Seems like Covid accounts for lots of the warnings along with civil unrest.  The countries you’re visiting seem pretty far from the conflict especially since they’re brief stops.  I’d still go on the cruise.  We were considering a river cruise ending with a few days in Warsaw.  That was the cause for us cancelling.  The country is being flooded with refugees.  It’s a scary time but I think Western Europe is still okay to visit.  Good luck and enjoy!

[pinotlover]

We are scheduled for Basel to Amsterdam in June and Bilboa to Barcelona on the Sirena in October.

 

I’m more concerned about the latter. Ukraine is the food basket of Europe and a major supplier of wheat. Therefore, the actual fighting, which will drag on, may not directly affect my itinerary , but there might well be wholesale food shortages across Europe. Visitations to those areas removed from combat may be restricted because of the necessity to feed the local population without the burden of demanding visitors.

[DENIE]

We are on a June Rome to Barcelona cruise.  Not worried at this point, but one always wonders.

[chloemonkey]

3 hours ago, Roccaforte said:

You can Google the US Department of State travel advisories to see what countries are at level 4, which is high risk.  Seems like Covid accounts for lots of the warnings along with civil unrest.  The countries you’re visiting seem pretty far from the conflict especially since they’re brief stops.  I’d still go on the cruise.  We were considering a river cruise ending with a few days in Warsaw.  That was the cause for us cancelling.  The country is being flooded with refugees.  It’s a scary time but I think Western Europe is still okay to visit.  Good luck and enjoy!

My only problem with the US Department of State travel advisories is that when they were categorizing most ports in the Caribbean as Level IV......the entire United States were also categorized at the same level....this of course not due to war but in regards to Covid.  So we took an educated and well researched chance and went anyway......with NO problems, issues etc. 

So that makes me a little leery of relying on these advisories alone....and wish that we were more able to trust news agencies, government agencies, etc......

[Host Jazzbeau]

When the UK puts countries on level 4 it really stops travelers, because their insurance won't cover them.  When the US puts countries (or the entire cruise industry) on level 4, nothing happens.  You have to make your own decision about the risks of travel.  For me and my house, we are cruising!  [but not to Russia]

[Hawaiidan]

7 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

When the UK puts countries on level 4 it really stops travelers, because their insurance won't cover them.  When the US puts countries (or the entire cruise industry) on level 4, nothing happens.  You have to make your own decision about the risks of travel.  For me and my house, we are cruising!  [but not to Russia]

I agree.... for most of us. we have an even greater enemy...time.    Time that we either use or loose for ever.    Sitting in your  living room , looking out the window  waiting to see if it rains is a terrible waste of time.   Waiting for these past 3 years for things  to get better is no assurance they will.      

[BenMurphy]

11 hours ago, pinotlover said:

We are scheduled for Basel to Amsterdam in June and Bilboa to Barcelona on the Sirena in October.

 

I’m more concerned about the latter. Ukraine is the food basket of Europe and a major supplier of wheat. Therefore, the actual fighting, which will drag on, may not directly affect my itinerary , but there might well be wholesale food shortages across Europe. Visitations to those areas removed from combat may be restricted because of the necessity to feed the local population without the burden of demanding visitors.

Hi

The Blue at the top of the Ukrainian flag is the sky and the yellow is the wheat. Although here in the (dis) United Kingdom we do produce a lot of our own wheat! And you will see similar in France and Spain.

My main worry is if they start tossing Nuclear weapons around!

   Portugal/Spain and Southern France are someway from the Black Sea.Although Greece and her islands    are not too far.

We visited in 2005 and were lucky to visit Crimea and the beautiful port of Odessa.

St Petersburg and the Baltic ports are some way from the fighting ( at the moment!)  

Well after Covid and the shenanigans of the mad midget ( yes! he wears high heels! 5'7") Putin ,I wonder if we're going to be destined to cruise again!

Living in hope and expectation!

Josie xx

[Hawaiidan]

2 hours ago, BenMurphy said:

Hi

The Blue at the top of the Ukrainian flag is the sky and the yellow is the wheat. Although here in the (dis) United Kingdom we do produce a lot of our own wheat! And you will see similar in France and Spain.

My main worry is if they start tossing Nuclear weapons around!

   Portugal/Spain and Southern France are someway from the Black Sea.Although Greece and her islands    are not too far.

We visited in 2005 and were lucky to visit Crimea and the beautiful port of Odessa.

St Petersburg and the Baltic ports are some way from the fighting ( at the moment!)  

Well after Covid and the shenanigans of the mad midget ( yes! he wears high heels! 5'7") Putin ,I wonder if we're going to be destined to cruise again!

Living in hope and expectation!

Josie xx

Based on some past schooling, I would say Nukes are off the table...    They will be used verbally as implied threats   However, to use any nuke no matter how low order will trigger MAD( Mutual Assured Destruction as in total) of our world and the person threatening it      Too, people are  down deep survivalists.   Top leaders may go crazy and issue a suicide order  but  the guys down the line who actually push the button, or pull the trigger, are not going to  be so eager .  No field commander is going to want follow through knowing  his life will be over  within an hours of his act.      Nukes are in many ways insurance policies.  Ukraine got rid of theirs and opened the door for this invasion...   

Adolph Hitler wrote a lot of bad things....  but one remains worthy of consideration  , " the only thing that fear and terror respects is a superior fear and terror"

Edited April 6, 2022 by Hawaiidan

[Cliff-FLL]

We, too, have plans to be in Spain, Portugal, & France later this year and don't plan to make any revisions based the current conflict.  I agree with Dan that MAD has been a sufficient deterrent in the past and will continue to be so.  In the event that it's not...well, I think getting a credit or refund for a cancelled flight will be at the bottom of everyone's to-do list, since there won't be anyplace left to fly.  Spain & Portugal have, for years, been developing renewable energy industries - hydro, wind, and solar - and have significant agricultural sectors that could be reasonably self-sufficient in the event of major catastrophe.  The chances of "conventional" warfare breaking out and impacting the south of France and the Peninsula are astronomical, so go ahead and live on the edge!

[Cliff-FLL]

Gosh, I'm gonna' feel SO stupid if a conventional war breaks out that leads to nuclear conflict.  MODERATOR: If this does happen and I'm stuck in Europe, will you do me a favor and just quietly delete these?  Thanks in advance!

[CintiPam]

No. 
 

I personally would be more concerned about the crowds (and heat) in August, the traditional vacation month in all three countries.

[Mura]

On 4/5/2022 at 7:55 PM, LNielsen said:

Hi Mura!

 

Laura here, so good to “see” you.  We have a cruise going to Istanbul October 2023 and have our doubts that we will make it there even that far out.    Glad we went a few years ago.   I’ve told John we’ll see what happens and switch it up if need be.  

Hi Laura,

 

Hope it works for you!!  Back then it was such a wonderful trip.  And Istanbul has always been a favorite for us. On that 2012 cruise, when we docked in Istanbul we went to the Modern Art Museum (a short walk away from the port), expecting not much, and we were blown away!

 

[CintiPam]

15 hours ago, Mura said:

Hi Laura,

 

Hope it works for you!!  Back then it was such a wonderful trip.  And Istanbul has always been a favorite for us. On that 2012 cruise, when we docked in Istanbul we went to the Modern Art Museum (a short walk away from the port), expecting not much, and we were blown away!

 

Mura, we also visited there on our last visit in 2014 and thought it was terrific! Although closed right now, there will be even more to view when the new museum building designed by Renzo Piano opens in that same excellent location so easily next door to the port.