What do you think of these hurricane predictions , me not to much.

[dolittle]

Heard on T.V yesterday that we will have an active season. To me this is totally made up I don't think anyone can predict weather long term .  They even call how many will be named and where and how many will hit the U.S. Like all prognosticators they only remember when they get it right .(not often) So here is mine I think it will stay very calm with two named storms that will miss the U.S. If I am right I will bring this back if not I will forget it . What are your predictions for this season.

[CruiserBruce]

Well...since there have already been 4 named storms this season...

 

I will stick with the science based reasoning.

[navybankerteacher]

4 hours ago, dolittle said:

Heard on T.V yesterday that we will have an active season. To me this is totally made up I don't think anyone can predict weather long term .  They even call how many will be named and where and how many will hit the U.S. Like all prognosticators they only remember when they get it right .(not often) So here is mine I think it will stay very calm with two named storms that will miss the U.S. If I am right I will bring this back if not I will forget it . What are your predictions for this season.

My prediction is that you will eat crow.
 

Recent weather developments, the obvious result of global warming (if you challenge that concept, this conversation is over) show that increased ocean warmth certainly exists in coastal waters near the US - and ocean water warmth is what provides the energy for such storms.

 

I am inclined to believe that we will have a rather active hurricane season.

[dolittle]

On 8/12/2023 at 9:45 PM, navybankerteacher said:

My prediction is that you will eat crow.
 

Recent weather developments, the obvious result of global warming (if you challenge that concept, this conversation is over) show that increased ocean warmth certainly exists in coastal waters near the US - and ocean water warmth is what provides the energy for such storms.

 

I am inclined to believe that we will have a rather active hurricane season.

The water has been hot for a while and it has been pretty quiet .Please let me know if there are any other experts I am not allowed question .

[navybankerteacher]

3 hours ago, dolittle said:

The water has been hot for a while and it has been pretty quiet .Please let me know if there are any other experts I am not allowed question .

Perhaps you should start with reading a good newspaper: your prediction that this season would have just TWO named storms raised my interest  — because this was made AFTER there had already been FOUR named storms.

 

I hope my suggestion that you not question global warming did not offend you.

 

In any event, let’s revisit the issue a month or so from now - when the hurricane season will have gotten seriously underway.

[eileeshb]

On 8/14/2023 at 9:13 PM, dolittle said:

The water has been hot for a while and it has been pretty quiet .Please let me know if there are any other experts I am not allowed question .

Maybe in terms of storm action in the Caribbean… but Ireland and the UK have had a fairly endless stream of unseasonably poor weather. We had about 4 weeks of nice weather followed by 2 weeks of thunderstorms and then the wettest July on record and it hasn’t improved much since then. 
normally in Ireland our peak sea temperature is 16C (60.8F) which would be reached in August, this year it hit 18C(64.4F) in the first week of June and has been fluctuating between 16 & 17C since the wet weather kicked in.  The Jet stream has stayed much further south than is normal for the European summer which is why there’s been extreme heat in southern Europe while the northern half has been getting flooded. 

[smokeybandit]

Looks like the western Mexico itineraries could get impacted next week by TS Hilary

[dolittle]

On 8/12/2023 at 9:45 PM, navybankerteacher said:

My prediction is that you will eat crow.
 

Recent weather developments, the obvious result of global warming (if you challenge that concept, this conversation is over) show that increased ocean warmth certainly exists in coastal waters near the US - and ocean water warmth is what provides the energy for such storms.

 

I am inclined to believe that we will have a rather active hurricane season.

The water has been hot for a while and it has been pretty quiet .Please let me know if there are any other experts I am not allowed question .

[dolittle]

Those who are very bought into Climate  Disaster  will use short term weather to prove what they  believe . When it does not fit they will say ''Your  confusing weather with climate '' .B.T.W. July and Aug have been cooler than normal here in the mid Atlantic .what does that mean not much .Local short term trends are just that .

[navybankerteacher]

3 hours ago, dolittle said:

The water has been hot for a while and it has been pretty quiet .Please let me know if there are any other experts I am not allowed question .

You posted this on Monday — it has not gained in any way since.

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, dolittle said:

Those who are very bought into Climate  Disaster  will use short term weather to prove what they  believe . When it does not fit they will say ''Your  confusing weather with climate '' .B.T.W. July and Aug have been cooler than normal here in the mid Atlantic .what does that mean not much .Local short term trends are just that .

Yes, local short term trends are “just that”.  But what do you think of the generally recognized global long term trends - or is it more comforting to ignore them?

[CruiserBruce]

21 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Looks like the western Mexico itineraries could get impacted next week by TS Hilary

Very few cruises to Mexico in August. Most don't start before later September.

[smokeybandit]

16 minutes ago, CruiserBruce said:

Very few cruises to Mexico in August. Most don't start before later September.

Four different ships across three lines are doing western Mexico this weekend.

[CruiserBruce]

Think the OP's predictions are sinking fast this week.

[dolittle]

I will own it but it was mighty quiet  in all that warm water last month. It is strange they are not coming from the coast of Africa.

[CruiserBruce]

At least a couple hurricanes originate in the southern and western Caribbean every year.

[navybankerteacher]

4 hours ago, dolittle said:

I will own it but it was mighty quiet  in all that warm water last month. It is strange they are not coming from the coast of Africa.

I guess hurricane Idalia now threatening the Gulf Coast of Florida and hurricane Franklin now threatening Bermuda - with side effects hitting our Atlantic coast - did not get the memo from climate warming deniers  about how mild this year will be (and this in August, before peak season starts).

[dolittle]

59 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

I guess hurricane Idalia now threatening the Gulf Coast of Florida and hurricane Franklin now threatening Bermuda - with side effects hitting our Atlantic coast - did not get the memo from climate warming deniers  about how mild this year will be (and this in August, before peak season starts).

Not a denier but a questioner, science is not God or a belief system (sadly it has become one with many) . Iam old enough to remember so much science that was wrong and infected with politics that I can and do ques. all things that experts say. Sorry I just do not believe that'' billions will die'' (Greata Thunberg ) if the planet warms a few degrees. B.T.W. I got all my covid shots , believe Biden won the fair and square and Oswald acted alone. The previous sentence is not sarcasm .

[navybankerteacher]

12 minutes ago, dolittle said:

Not a denier but a questioner, science is not God or a belief system (sadly it has become one with many) . Iam old enough to remember so much science that was wrong and infected with politics that I can and do ques. all things that experts say. Sorry I just do not believe that'' billions will die'' (Greata Thunberg ) if the planet warms a few degrees. B.T.W. I got all my covid shots , believe Biden won the fair and square and Oswald acted alone. The previous sentence is not sarcasm .

The fact remains that there is very little for rational, informed people to “question” about climate (not weather) change.

[dolittle]

8 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

The fact remains that there is very little for rational, informed people to “question” about climate (not weather) change.

Part of the problem for me is that those who are leading us on this issue don't live what they say they believe (John Kerry has a yacht and a plane). When rich people and celeb's push for me to curb my lifestyle I cringe. It troubles me that one side of the spectrum is dug in on climate hysteria and the other is into denial . I don't think it is because one side is smart and one is dumb .There are smart and dumb people on both sides of the spectrum. Maybe if one side called out ''billions will die'' and the other side called out it'' is all a hoax'' we could get to some real answers. B.T.W nuclear power is the best answer .

[Sun Queen II]

Is anyone currently sailing near hurricane Franklin now?  If so how rough are the waters?

[brnsofia]

flying question does anyone know if we check our bags then flight gets cancelled (flying out of NC)  can we get our checked bags back at airport to be able to drive down?

[navybankerteacher]

26 minutes ago, dolittle said:

…B.T.W nuclear power is the best answer .

Nuclear power may be an essential part of the long term fix — solar and wind (while attractive) are not reliable as primary sources - and certainly occupy increasing amounts of real estate.

 

Agree about the elites not showing leadership - recalling the Kennedys in Hyannis and Walter Cronkite on Martha’s Vineyard opposing the wind farm which would destroy their views.

[dolittle]

12 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

Nuclear power may be an essential part of the long term fix — solar and wind (while attractive) are not reliable as primary sources - and certainly occupy increasing amounts of real estate.

 

Agree about the elites not showing leadership - recalling the Kennedys in Hyannis and Walter Cronkite on Martha’s Vineyard opposing the wind farm which would destroy their views.

Nice to know we can agree ,it was nice to see the Obama's on some Hollywood guy's giant yacht in the Med. four people on one boat twenty times the size of my small house. I hope they had some good ideas on how I should cut my energy use.

[dolittle]

I love the beach and ocean in New Jersey(go almost every weekend) and am  also against wind  energy . Many in N.J are starting to fight back against wind . Some are tying it to whale deaths but the science is pretty weak on this, but there is a big backlash in this very left wing state.