Time to watch rcl stock again

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, orville99 said:

Only if you chose not to try to combine it with any other promo or discount.

Just for you I screen shot my obc for feb 2 2025 as its the only one i did next cruise. Refundable for next cruise is $75 obc, not $100 that's for nonrefundable. $100 from group/TA, and the last $100 was for owning 100 shares of rcl stock. = $275 obc. Combinable. 

 

I also got the group rate, and the balcony $250 discount and the solo DP340 on the price. All combinable. I have 9 more booked the same I could show... though the others I didnt use next cruise.

[orville99]

23 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Just for you I screen shot my obc for feb 2 2025 as its the only one i did next cruise. Refundable for next cruise is $75 obc, not $100 that's for nonrefundable. $100 from group/TA, and the last $100 was for owning 100 shares of rcl stock. = $275 obc. Combinable. 

 

I also got the group rate, and the balcony $250 discount and the solo DP340 on the price. All combinable. I have 9 more booked the same I could show... though the others I didnt use next cruise.

Different rules today compared to a decade ago. Apples to Aardvarks…

[Ken at the beach]

1 hour ago, orville99 said:

when they eliminated the ability to combine the SHB with any other promo, it became essentially worthless to us.

In 2020 (maybe 2021) they allowed the shareholders benefit to be combined with pretty much any discount other than TA rates or F&F rates.

[not-enough-cruising]

1 hour ago, orville99 said:

Too many unpleasant outcomes with group rates during my career to ever go down that road with my $$.

 

At least on a cruise ship they can’t walk my client across town to a different ship.

"unpleasant outcomes"??

 

No different than any other booking, just cheaper and a refundable deposit

[Ken at the beach]

1 hour ago, orville99 said:

Only if you chose not to try to combine it with any other promo or discount.

Incorrect, that has changed.  No issues with combinability.

[Ken at the beach]

43 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I have never once had a issue combining it with next cruise obc, group rate, D+ balcony discount and DP340.

 

Not once been turned down.

 

@Ourusualbeachhas confirmed elsewhere it is combinable. 

 

I dont gamble so not speaking of casino rates but I've combined it over 20 times closer to 30 since covid and never had a issue. 

You would have prior to 2020 (2021?)  as it was not combinable with pretty much any OBC that you received from Royal

[firefly333]

1 minute ago, Ourusualbeach said:

You would have prior to 2020 (2021?)  as it was not combinable with pretty much any OBC that you received from Royal

I was counting since covid how many cruises I've had it applied to.

 

Yes I remember there was a time it was not .. I think I said since since in my original post that its combinable.  I sure dont remember 2014 with clarity lol and if I submitted that year or not. I do before and after covid.

 

I started commenting on the other thread and started this one because if people are going to buy and sell rcl stock I wanted to provide some insight to reading a stock chart. Each call I've posted was correct ... if I wasnt sure I wouldnt post but the chart was speaking loudly.

 

Most Americans dont seem to know how to read a stock chart. While you might not like it, computers and traders use charts. Charts trigger buying and selling. Ever since 100 rcl has been also hitting lower lows. I've meet very few stock guys as good as I am. The UBS guy I inherited with the trust meets me toe to toe with knowledge. Hes a keeper. That doesnt mean that I dont do my homework and see what the charts are saying. Charts have said "danger Will Robinson, danger" since earnings posted. 

 

My theory is it's great to have a great financial guy but also know what you are doing. No one will take as good care of your money as you yourself. 

 

Today is the first time rcl coming into buying range, so I posted it's starting to hit my range. I'm ready to buy more. 100 was overbought. Sell. Learn to chart. At least enough to have a opinion to discuss with your financial advisor. 

 

Here are treasuries.  The 1 year dropped a test below 5.5% now .. tells you what people think rates will be going forward .. like oil futures. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

 

[orville99]

25 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

"unpleasant outcomes"??

 

No different than any other booking, just cheaper and a refundable deposit

During my career, my SBU had responsibility for booking group hotel blocks for both our sales teams and their major clients at national events. When you are called down to the lobby of a 5 star hotel to try to prevent a CEO from being “walked” to a different hotel because the group booking block was screwed up by the hotel, trust me - a very unpleasant outcome.

 

I will never trust my outcomes to the vagaries of a group booking block.

[orville99]

26 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

You would have prior to 2020 (2021?)  as it was not combinable with pretty much any OBC that you received from Royal

Which is what I have been saying all along. If you look, you will see that we divested our RCL shares in 2014, and the SHB at that time was not combinable with anything.

[Ken at the beach]

1 minute ago, orville99 said:

During my career, my SBU had responsibility for booking group hotel blocks for both our sales teams and their major clients at national events. When you are called down to the lobby of a 5 star hotel to try to prevent a CEO from being “walked” to a different hotel because the group booking block was screwed up by the hotel, trust me - a very unpleasant outcome.

 

I will never trust my outcomes to the vagaries of a group booking block.

Group rates on cruises cannot be compared to blocks of hotel rooms. 

[Ken at the beach]

3 hours ago, orville99 said:

Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole today since they suspended the dividend back in 2020 and the shareholder discount is still virtually impossible to use.

 

2 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Which is what I have been saying all along. If you look, you will see that we divested our RCL shares in 2014, and the SHB at that time was not combinable with anything.

 

Not what you said in your first post.

[orville99]

15 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Today is the first time rcl coming into buying range, so I posted it's starting to hit my range. I'm ready to buy more. 100 was overbought. Sell. Learn to chart. At least enough to have an opinion to discuss with your financial advisor. 

Hopefully your UBS guy counseled you to keep 75% of your powder dry and dollar cost average if it continues to go down. Don’t know what its 50 or 200 day # is, but my guess is it is getting close to at least one of them.

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, orville99 said:

None, I was just pointing out that it is not the product performance that determines future value, but the bottom line.

Doesn’t product performance dictate the bottom line? During the quarter people guess at the bottom line, if the prediction is positive, the stock price goes up, if the prediction is negative, the price goes down. When the final numbers are released, if not close to prediction, the price will change again. The next quarter starts, and the game starts again.

 

[orville99]

2 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

 

 

Not what you said in your first post.

My first post said three things - what I bought it at; what I sold it at, and that I would never acquire any more after they suspended their dividend in 2020. Quite honestly, once I divested my shares in 2014 I could care less what the program looks like post restart. When last I looked, it was uncombinabe with anything - and the last time I looked was in 2014.

[orville99]

Just now, grandgeezer said:

Doesn’t product performance dictate the bottom line? During the quarter people guess at the bottom line, if the prediction is positive, the stock price goes up, if the prediction is negative, the price goes down. When the final numbers are released, if not close to prediction, the price will change again. The next quarter starts, and the game starts again.

 

Product performance hits the Top line. The bottom line is whatever is left over from the top line after you pay everyone what you owe them Assets-Liabilities = Bottom Line.   If debt service increases because low interest debt has to be re-funded by high interest debt, and/or the lien holder takes advantage of his call option, Ships sink regardless of how full they are.

[not-enough-cruising]

22 minutes ago, orville99 said:

During my career, my SBU had responsibility for booking group hotel blocks for both our sales teams and their major clients at national events. When you are called down to the lobby of a 5 star hotel to try to prevent a CEO from being “walked” to a different hotel because the group booking block was screwed up by the hotel, trust me - a very unpleasant outcome.

 

I will never trust my outcomes to the vagaries of a group booking block.

Yeah, that stinks, but it’s not an apples to apples comparison with group bookings on a cruise ship. 

[firefly333]

10 minutes ago, orville99 said:

My first post said three things - what I bought it at; what I sold it at, and that I would never acquire any more after they suspended their dividend in 2020. Quite honestly, once I divested my shares in 2014 I could care less what the program looks like post restart. When last I looked, it was uncombinabe with anything - and the last time I looked was in 2014.

As my first post said this thread was for people who have a interest in buying or selling rcl.

 

If you have no interest why post here other than to distract. 

 

Imo this break was big today. The market was about 3 minutes to open and my spiney stock sense was going off like crazy. So I tried to search for the old thread and gave up and opened a new thread for those who want to understand what the chart says, how to read a chart, whatever questions on buying and selling stocks. The computers read the charts, we should learn too. 

 

If you just want to talk about the olden days, I'll just skip over your posts, and leave it for those interested. This was a huge move, and I could feel it before open it was about to go into free fall. I posted when the stock was at 90 .. before it cracked. You could feel it, or I could. 50 years of experience talking. I'm trying to concentrate this just on rcl stock, or at least cruise stocks. 

[Ken at the beach]

17 minutes ago, orville99 said:

My first post said three things - what I bought it at; what I sold it at, and that I would never acquire any more after they suspended their dividend in 2020. Quite honestly, once I divested my shares in 2014 I could care less what the program looks like post restart. When last I looked, it was uncombinabe with anything - and the last time I looked was in 2014.

Posting about what the rules were almost 10 years ago like they are still in effect today does nobody any good.

 

Your post made it seem current which it is not

 

"Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole today since they suspended the dividend back in 2020 and the shareholder discount is still virtually impossible to use."

 

[LittleJoefromKokomo]

16 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

. I'm trying to concentrate this just on rcl stock, or at least cruise stocks. 

So for a longtime investor not interested in trading, where do you see RCI stock in say, a year? (Unless WW3 breaks out..)

Bought at $37 many years ago, have no plans to sell for another 2-5 years  consider buying more, but don't know if the current price is too high.. Should I buy now or wait... OR go for NCL instead...? So many choises.. 😂

[orville99]

58 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Doesn’t product performance dictate the bottom line?

In a word, no.

[orville99]

39 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Posting about what the rules were almost 10 years ago like they are still in effect today does nobody any good.

 

Your post made it seem current which it is not

 

"Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole today since they suspended the dividend back in 2020 and the shareholder discount is still virtually impossible to use."

 

Anyone who would risk almost $9.000 in today's equity market so they could get a $100 OBC once or twice a year on a stock that suspended its dividend so it could survive long enough to sail again really needs a new financial advisor. 

[firefly333]

14 minutes ago, UnregisteredUser said:

So for a longtime investor not interested in trading, where do you see RCI stock in say, a year? (Unless WW3 breaks out..)

Bought at $37 many years ago, have no plans to sell for another 2-5 years  consider buying more, but don't know if the current price is too high.. Should I buy now or wait... OR go for NCL instead...? So many choises.. 😂

Nclh and ccl sell off every earnings. Rcl is finding ways to add revenue, like the adults area and has the ships families want to book. Imo ccl and nclh both struggling. 

 

I cant see a year ahead. My finance training says the more govt spends the higher inflation goes. Last cycle about 2008 the govt cut spending to get out of the inflation cycle. I see no such inclination that the govt is willing to cut spending. I have CNBC on and listening. There are people saying what if next spring we still are seeing inflation over 4%. And we have to raise rates even higher. Are the JOLTS numbers important or not. Tight job market doesnt help. Will be go into a recession? Politicians who think the answer is remove Powell, they dont know more govt spending equals higher inflation. Doesnt matter who votes yes. 

 

I personally am willing to dip my toe into rcl but not all in. Credit card spending goes ever higher. Those charging havent slowed down. Govt hasnt slowed down. .. inflation is not under control. Dont listen to those saying rates are high enough. They have been proven wrong over and over for the last year. Powell keeps saying rates higher for longer, and some dont think he means it or they can pressure him to quit. 

 

I'm buying but if it goes lower I'll buy more. I think rcl earnings nov 1 will be very good. I may sell if it pops, imma trader in my heart, though I also manage a large portfolio.  I inherited even more, and rather than pick stocks, we started rolling over 6 month treasuries. 5.5% + for all that and keep it safe while the market is in turmoil. 

 

Another year of earnings will only solidify rcl stock, so I have no worries at 86, though it could go lower if we go into a recession. And I'll keep buying. At 100 I was a sell. Tomorrow I wouldnt be surprised by a dead cat bounce .. the big boys were shorting today and will cover at open tomorrow. Let it settle. The chart got broken today. Imo rcl has the ships people want. Ccl and nclh do not. 

[firefly333]

42 minutes ago, UnregisteredUser said:

So for a longtime investor not interested in trading, where do you see RCI stock in say, a year? (Unless WW3 breaks out..)

Bought at $37 many years ago, have no plans to sell for another 2-5 years  consider buying more, but don't know if the current price is too high.. Should I buy now or wait... OR go for NCL instead...? So many choises.. 😂

Put another way, the fact that most of the funds I manage, I am rolling over in 6 month treasuries tells you I think the economy could get worse. All those credit card Bill's at some pt there could be more defaults ahead. Something else is going to break quit possibly, not just the 3 banks went belly up.

 

Inflation isnt under control, it's just better. More pain ahead. This is a time for safety. Most of my own funds are in dividend stocks playing it somewhat safe, lots of oil stocks. I'm waiting to see tomorrow if this sell off stops or continues to break down. But today rcl capitulated. I'm 85% or more in safety. 

[Ken at the beach]

24 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Anyone who would risk almost $9.000 in today's equity market so they could get a $100 OBC once or twice a year on a stock that suspended its dividend so it could survive long enough to sail again really needs a new financial advisor. 

Way to pivot and change the direction away from what you stated earlier.

[orville99]

Just now, Ourusualbeach said:

Way to pivot and change the direction away from what you stated earlier.

Haven't changed a bit - would not touch this stock with a 10-foot pole.