Fourth Excel Ship Ordered for a 2027 Delivery

[jimbo5544]

2 minutes ago, john91498 said:

This entire thread is all speculation

As is almost every single thread.  Seems you keep wanting to bring it up.  If it bothers you to read these posts, just skip them.  No speculation there.

[john91498]

Doesn't bother me, just making a statement.

[BlerkOne]

38 minutes ago, john91498 said:

Doesn't bother me, just making a statement.

of opinion. 🙂

[john91498]

41 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

of opinion. 🙂

 

and then there's that 🙂

[starstruck05]

2 hours ago, jsglow said:

Nailed it. Carnival pulled Dream out simply because they couldn't sell Dream. Now the market may have changed but you'll see a Dream or a Vista reassigned to New Orleans long before you ever see an Excel there.

If Carnival couldn't sell the Dream they have no reason to have two year round ships here. Your comment is simply not true. Ship was full everytime I sailed her. The invalid NOLA speculation and lies needs to stop.

[dolphinsfan246]

9 hours ago, starstruck05 said:

If Carnival couldn't sell the Dream they have no reason to have two year round ships here. Your comment is simply not true. Ship was full everytime I sailed her. The invalid NOLA speculation and lies needs to stop.

I don’t think it’s invalid NOLA speculation. Of course the ship sails full, occupancy is never the problem with these ports. They will fill the ship no matter what. The problem was they had to severely discount the cabins in order to fill the ship. We did a 7 day on the Dream pre Covid , it was still the cheapest cruise we ever took, we paid around $600 total for the whole thing. That was not with any casino offers or anything. And the terminal experience was complete and uncontrolled chaos. Both embarking and debarking was the worst we ever experienced. It was a joke compared to the Florida ports, even their little sister port Mobile was way better organized. If that’s how it was with a Dream class ship.. there is no way they could handle an Excel class ship with 6,600 coming and 6,600 going at the same time. Not without major port improvements. 

[jimbo5544]

2 hours ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

I don’t think it’s invalid NOLA speculation. Of course the ship sails full, occupancy is never the problem with these ports. They will fill the ship no matter what. The problem was they had to severely discount the cabins in order to fill the ship. We did a 7 day on the Dream pre Covid , it was still the cheapest cruise we ever took, we paid around $600 total for the whole thing. That was not with any casino offers or anything. And the terminal experience was complete and uncontrolled chaos. Both embarking and debarking was the worst we ever experienced. It was a joke compared to the Florida ports, even their little sister port Mobile was way better organized. If that’s how it was with a Dream class ship.. there is no way they could handle an Excel class ship with 6,600 coming and 6,600 going at the same time. Not without major port improvements. 

Bingo, same thing for west coast sailings.

Edited March 9 by jimbo5544

[starstruck05]

4 hours ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

I don’t think it’s invalid NOLA speculation. Of course the ship sails full, occupancy is never the problem with these ports. They will fill the ship no matter what. The problem was they had to severely discount the cabins in order to fill the ship. We did a 7 day on the Dream pre Covid , it was still the cheapest cruise we ever took, we paid around $600 total for the whole thing. That was not with any casino offers or anything. And the terminal experience was complete and uncontrolled chaos. Both embarking and debarking was the worst we ever experienced. It was a joke compared to the Florida ports, even their little sister port Mobile was way better organized. If that’s how it was with a Dream class ship.. there is no way they could handle an Excel class ship with 6,600 coming and 6,600 going at the same time. Not without major port improvements. 

I've had discounted cruises offered to me from every single port Carnival travels out of. And not casino offers. Way more than location factors into why they would discount the cruise. Try again. Also EVERY port has had issues with being organized. Trust. It's a well oiled machine now. Debarkcation and Embarkation both are completely different since Covid. I've had more chaos and misinformation given to me leaving Port Canaveral than I've EVER had leaving New Orleans. So does that mean Port Canaveral can't handle the amount of passengers? No of course they can, just like NOLA can. 

[jsglow]

19 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

I would love to see the data behind their Euro sailings.  Years back, it was a hard sell, not sure why.  My sense is that it is doing WAY better.  In the US market, some homeports just struggle.  NYC year round is one, San Juan is another, and before Panorama, the 7 day market struggled on the west coast.  Just some color to your comment on the ptential for market change vs the way it was.  

I think the way to look at any market @jimbo5544 is to see the pricing they are able to command. Winter cruising on the Venezia out of NYC was cheap this year for off peak weeks. And they responded by pulling the ship in future winters. European cruises have commanded a premium price on a per day basis. They are perhaps not to the level of Jubilee launch prices but still pretty darn good. And you'll note that Carnival has used pretty much the same model for 3-4 straight years over there; send a Spirit for a nice dry dock and then run a varied set of itineraries from Dover, Rome and Barcelona, with minor differences year over year.  Bottom line. It's clearly working. 

[jsglow]

7 hours ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

I don’t think it’s invalid NOLA speculation. Of course the ship sails full, occupancy is never the problem with these ports. They will fill the ship no matter what. The problem was they had to severely discount the cabins in order to fill the ship. We did a 7 day on the Dream pre Covid , it was still the cheapest cruise we ever took, we paid around $600 total for the whole thing. That was not with any casino offers or anything. And the terminal experience was complete and uncontrolled chaos. Both embarking and debarking was the worst we ever experienced. It was a joke compared to the Florida ports, even their little sister port Mobile was way better organized. If that’s how it was with a Dream class ship.. there is no way they could handle an Excel class ship with 6,600 coming and 6,600 going at the same time. Not without major port improvements. 

Spot on. Every ship sails 'full' every time. The operative question is how much discounting is required. Everyone gets all the info they need simply by examining the per day fare. New Orleans lagged significantly behind other ports when it was trying to fill Dream on a weekly basis. Carnival responded with a smaller ship with fewer berths thus firming the price. Note how other lines are strictly seasonal there. New York is facing a similar problem today and no one should be surprised that Venezia is being relocated in future winters. It's really quite simple economics. And since I'm an economist......

Edited March 9 by jsglow

[dolphinsfan246]

2 hours ago, starstruck05 said:

I've had discounted cruises offered to me from every single port Carnival travels out of. And not casino offers. Way more than location factors into why they would discount the cruise. Try again. Also EVERY port has had issues with being organized. Trust. It's a well oiled machine now. Debarkcation and Embarkation both are completely different since Covid. I've had more chaos and misinformation given to me leaving Port Canaveral than I've EVER had leaving New Orleans. So does that mean Port Canaveral can't handle the amount of passengers? No of course they can, just like NOLA can. 

🤦‍♂️ I guess you don’t understand simple cruising economics. I agree embarking and debarking are much more efficient post Covid so NOLA catches a break there. But the Dream wasn’t making money before Covid, so why would they commit to it after Covid? It’s very simple if the Dream was making good profit from NOLA they would have never downgraded the port back to Conquest class on the week long itineraries. It’s just not a market that sustains good fares for that many cabins. If the port was profitable as you claim , they would at LEAST have a Dream or Vista class right now as I type. Now maybe they will try again and see how it goes post Covid, but your assumption that NOLA is ready to skip up to Excel class right now is totally insane. Honestly NOLA is lucky that Covid purged the Fantasy class or I really believe they would have a Conquest/Fantasy lineup right now. 

[starstruck05]

17 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

🤦‍♂️ I guess you don’t understand simple cruising economics. I agree embarking and debarking are much more efficient post Covid so NOLA catches a break there. But the Dream wasn’t making money before Covid, so why would they commit to it after Covid? It’s very simple if the Dream was making good profit from NOLA they would have never downgraded the port back to Conquest class on the week long itineraries. It’s just not a market that sustains good fares for that many cabins. If the port was profitable as you claim , they would at LEAST have a Dream or Vista class right now as I type. Now maybe they will try again and see how it goes post Covid, but your assumption that NOLA is ready to skip up to Excel class right now is totally insane. Honestly NOLA is lucky that Covid purged the Fantasy class or I really believe they would have a Conquest/Fantasy lineup right now. 

Your post makes zero sense. I very much understand how the industry works. Again as I already stated if Carnival couldn't fill ships in NOLA why are there two ships still here every week? The Dream was here in NOLA since 2014. If it wasn't making enough money, it would have been moved long before. It was moved because it was part of the big shuffle of moves Carnival did at the time. If you hate New Orleans just say that but the market here is great other wise we wouldn't have Disney,  NCL, And Royal plus small cruiselines sailing from here. And before you make some comment about them not being year round, it's because of limited space to expand in the area where the terminal is but that is already in the works to be resolved. 

Edited March 9 by starstruck05

[jsglow]

@starstruck05, there's no reason to be defensive. Many of us, myself included, love sailing from New Orleans. And by the way, the terminal is just fine. I also LOVE being able to walk from my hotel that morning. All good.

[dolphinsfan246]

22 minutes ago, starstruck05 said:

Your post makes zero sense. I very much understand how the industry works. Again as I already stated if Carnival couldn't fill ships in NOLA why are there two ships still here every week? The Dream was here in NOLA since 2014. If it wasn't making enough money, it would have been moved long before. It was moved because it was part of the big shuffle of moves Carnival did at the time. If you hate New Orleans just say that but the market here is great other wise we wouldn't have Disney,  NCL, And Royal plus small cruiselines sailing from here. And before you make some comment about them not being year round, it's because of limited space to expand in the area where the terminal is but that is already in the works to be resolved. 

“It was moved because it was part of the big shuffle of moves carnival did at the time”

 

EXACTLY and they shuffled LESS capacity to New Orleans BEFORE Covid was ever a thing. But by all means let’s send an Excel class there with 2,600+ cabins to fill. Surely that makes perfect business sense to Carnival. 

[BlerkOne]

4 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

“It was moved because it was part of the big shuffle of moves carnival did at the time”

 

EXACTLY and they shuffled LESS capacity to New Orleans BEFORE Covid was ever a thing. But by all means let’s send an Excel class there with 2,600+ cabins to fill. Surely that makes perfect business sense to Carnival. 

They shuffled more capacity to Galveston and took a cruise ship that was doing well with 7 day cruises and put it on short cruises out of Galveston. Even that wasn't enough, and a Vista class ship took that over.

 

The per diem for shorter cruises is higher than longer cruises.

 

New Orleans has broken their pre-pandemic record for number of cruisers. But other cruise lines are moving in. Choice is good. Carnival loves competition.

 

At least the New Orleans port doesn't close because of a little fog like others do.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

🤦‍♂️ I guess you don’t understand simple cruising economics. I agree embarking and debarking are much more efficient post Covid so NOLA catches a break there. But the Dream wasn’t making money before Covid, so why would they commit to it after Covid? It’s very simple if the Dream was making good profit from NOLA they would have never downgraded the port back to Conquest class on the week long itineraries. It’s just not a market that sustains good fares for that many cabins. If the port was profitable as you claim , they would at LEAST have a Dream or Vista class right now as I type. Now maybe they will try again and see how it goes post Covid, but your assumption that NOLA is ready to skip up to Excel class right now is totally insane. Honestly NOLA is lucky that Covid purged the Fantasy class or I really believe they would have a Conquest/Fantasy lineup right now. 

You say Dream wasn't making money without any proof. Surely you don't believe that. Your whole argument is bogus.

[dolphinsfan246]

4 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

You say Dream wasn't making money without any proof. Surely you don't believe that. Your whole argument is bogus.

As somebody else mentioned, look at the per day fares for the Dream all the years she sailed from NOLA. Significantly lower than the rest of the fleet. They couldn’t sell the rooms and had to basically give them away at cut rate prices. I paid $239 PP for a 7 day interior room in 2018. That’s stupid cheap. 

[BlerkOne]

Just now, dolphinsfan246 said:

As somebody else mentioned, look at the per day fares for the Dream all the years she sailed from NOLA. Significantly lower than the rest of the fleet. They couldn’t sell the rooms and had to basically give them away at cut rate prices. I paid $239 PP for a 7 day interior room in 2018. That’s stupid cheap. 

Carnival has $100 fares out of Galveston, too. You say they couldn't sell rooms, but obviously they did. You are proof.

 

Carnival doesn't make most of their money selling cabins. There are many other factors including tax incentives that factor in, and I guarantee "somebody else" has no access to Carnival inside information.

 

 

[starstruck05]

35 minutes ago, jsglow said:

@starstruck05, there's no reason to be defensive. Many of us, myself included, love sailing from New Orleans. And by the way, the terminal is just fine. I also LOVE being able to walk from my hotel that morning. All good.

The other poster is speaking invalid information. I live here, work here and cruise here. I know the port and the people who travel the port very well. I even worked the port for Royal for 2 years. I refuse to allow someone to spead lies. They have zero proof. They have only taken 1 cruise out of NOLA. They think just because they got 1 cheap cruise here 6 years ago it means the market can't fill ships. It's simply stupid and wrong. 

[jsglow]

Have a nice day! 🙂

[dolphinsfan246]

5 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Carnival has $100 fares out of Galveston, too. You say they couldn't sell rooms, but obviously they did. You are proof.

 

Carnival doesn't make most of their money selling cabins. There are many other factors including tax incentives that factor in, and I guarantee "somebody else" has no access to Carnival inside information.

 

 

And neither do you. 

 

4 minutes ago, starstruck05 said:

The other poster is speaking invalid information. I live here, work here and cruise here. I know the port and the people who travel the port very well. I even worked the port for Royal for 2 years. I refuse to allow someone to spead lies. They have zero proof. They have only taken 1 cruise out of NOLA. They think just because they got 1 cheap cruise here 6 years ago it means the market can't fill ships. It's simply stupid and wrong. 

Even in their most recent shuffling of ships they only swapped Glory for Liberty. Swapping a potato for a slightly younger potato is not exactly infusing confidence into that market. It’s a great secondary port for aging ships, but thinking it’s going straight to Excel class anytime soon is joke. You have to know that. 

[starstruck05]

7 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

And neither do you. 

 

Even in their most recent shuffling of ships they only swapped Glory for Liberty. Swapping a potato for a slightly younger potato is not exactly infusing confidence into that market. It’s a great secondary port for aging ships, but thinking it’s going straight to Excel class anytime soon is joke. You have to know that. 

Never said it would go straight to an Excel ship. No one said that. I said it could support one. The newest ship, if it even is built, won't come in the fleet for several years. You keep claiming Carnival doesn't have a market here which is delusional. You have to know that they would have pulled out the market many years ago if that was the case. They have three ships in Galveston,  one in Moblie,  one in Tampa and one in Jacksonville.  ALL within less than a days driving distance from here. If the demand wasn't there for all these markets, Carnival would be gone. No one even thought they would come back to Moblie yet they did. Why? Because the demand is there. I don't know what market you are looking at but to those of us who actually sail from these ports and have seen the growth over the years, we know. You don't.

[BlerkOne]

7 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

And neither do you. 

 

Even in their most recent shuffling of ships they only swapped Glory for Liberty. Swapping a potato for a slightly younger potato is not exactly infusing confidence into that market. It’s a great secondary port for aging ships, but thinking it’s going straight to Excel class anytime soon is joke. You have to know that. 

Another nonsense post. Where have I said New Orleans is going straight to XL? But instead of Carnival, NCL will have the largest ship in New Orleans. Again. 

 

Speaking of aging ships (more nonsense), Carnival Miracle fits right in with Carnival Jubilee.  🙂

 

[notscb]

On 3/6/2024 at 9:15 PM, BlerkOne said:

It would be smarter not to follow Royal.

Why not?

Royal now has Oasis, Freedom and Icon classes going out of Miami. Celebrity (RCL Group) has their Edge Class ships out of Miami. Virgin has their newest ships out of Miami. All of their competitors have stepped up their product offerings out of Miami.

 

It'd make a whole lot of sense to compete in the visual sense to the thousands of people going out of Miami who might look at the older carnival ships passing by and make a judgement about Carnival before considering their newest product. Miami is where cruise ships go to be shown off, Carnival would do well to follow.

[tidecat]

Miami may be the traditional cruise capital of the world, but Port Canaveral has overtaken them as the world's busiest cruise port. Go where the demand is the strongest. Carnival is still going to have one of its newest class (Celebration) in Miami, and whatever Carnival has there in 2027 is still going to be smaller than the Oasis class, so I'm not sure it matters too much whether the ship is brand new or five years old from a visual perspective. 

 

FWIW, Utopia of the Seas and Star of the Seas are scheduled to debut out of Port Canaveral over the next two summers. Maybe Port Canaveral reaches a saturation point, but there may be a good chance Excel 4 debuts there, with Mardi Gras taking over for Freedom or Glory. The timing doesn't line up for Carnival to best capture it, but there are likely going to be a lot of extra visitors to Central Florida in 2025 and 2026 with Universal Orlando's new park. Even if that tails off in 2027 (when Excel 4 debuts), the market for short cruises may be much larger as people look to round out their vacations at Universal's parks.

 

Carnival also doesn't have an orderbook yet past 2027. There certainly will be additions beyond the new Excel ship.