NEWS FLASH: HAL to favor Triples and Quads

[TRLD]

2 minutes ago, Marelaine said:

This is not a dirty little HAL secret. The two other cruise lines that I have sailed do the same thing. When shopping for cruises for two passengers during early booking, they only show the cabins for two. As the lower occupancy cabins sell, they open up the higher occupancy cabins to all. I test this by making dummy bookings for three or four. Voila! Those cabins with three or four births open up. I call my TA and tell him which cabin I want and have never been denied.

 

Why they do this? The cabin price is the same whether there are one, two, three, or four passengers. But the bars, casinos, gift shops, specialty restaurants, and excursions make more money on the higher occupancy cabins. Also, they can’t put four passengers in a cabin for two. 
 

I wonder if the Upgrade Fairy might make an offer to you if she really wanted your cabin for someone else.

Usually if the reason for bumping from one cabin to another is due to capacity (2 people in a 3/4 cabin getting bumped for a party of 3 or 4) then compensation is usually not provided.  Depending upon the cabins that are available one might get an upgrade but I would not count on it.

[TRLD]

According to the last set of SEC filings all of the major cruise line holding companies (CCL, RCL, NCLH) are reporting over 100% occupancy, still running below 2019 but moving quickly in that direction.

 

This is a situation where they are putting the word out on what the policy is if they need a room for a larger policy.  For most cruises outside of school holidays I expect it will be a low probability even.  During school holidays, summer, shorter cruises the probably might be higher.

 

Keep in mind that even older people might decide to put 3 or 4 people in a cabin, especially if they are related, to save money.

 

HAL has done this in the past as well.  Since they have gone the music walk route they have been successful in moving their demographic down a bit. The age mix on shorter cruises in the summer or during school holidays is noticeably younger than on longer cruises during the other times of the year.

 

The driving force is economics.  According to the most recent SEC filing cruise lines are getting 35% of their revenue from on board spend (yes packages purchase as part of ones fare is considered to be onboard spend) this is compared to 25%  pre-covid.

 

 they put 2 in a cabin their revenue would be 2X 65 + 2 X 35=  200

3 in a cabin even if 3rd and 4th  sails free the revenue would be 2 X 65 + 3 X 35 = 235

with 4 is would be 2 X 65 + 4 X 35 = 270

 

a Cabin with 1 person even if their fare is 2 x the expected revenue is  1 X 130 + 1 X 35 = 165

 

Quite a difference in expected total revenue if they they have the max capacity available.

 

Another reason why they might select a particular room to bump is a ship cannot go over the max lifeboat capacity in a given zone, even if sufficient lifeboat capacity exists in other zones.

Edited March 24 by TRLD

[TRLD]

On 3/21/2024 at 12:05 PM, 3rdGenCunarder said:

 

That's outrageous!!! I understand the argument for the supplement--I don't like paying it, but I understand. They could have two people in a cabin, and they don't expect a solo to buy as many drinks or excursions as a couple would. But we also use less water, fewer towels, fewer dishes. We eat less and we take up less waitstaff time. 

 

What happens when a solo wants a cabin on a two-for-one offer? 

Problem is that the costs associated with any of those items, including food is a pretty small percentage of over all costs.  From the cruise line perspective most of their costs are fixed for a given itinerary.  Staff, Fuel, Capital Costs,  about the only variable cost is food and even their the amount of food ordered is pretty much the same if there is a few more or a few less people.  Food costs run in the 14-15 dollar range per passenger per day.  So not much savings with one compared to 2.

 

In Q3 2023 The operating  per passenger per day was 151.97 across all of CCL owned lines.  The food cost per passenger per day was 14.11 and fuel cost was 18.14.

 

On the other side fare revenue was  was 176.2 per passenger per day and onboard spend revenue was 89.46 per passenger per day  for a total average revenue of 265.66 per passenger per day.

[CGinMTL]

The other question I have, how late in the booking process can they hijack your room.

If you booked 2 years out and a family of 4 wants your room 2 weeks out.

How far is that.

Once final payment is made. Rooms should be locked in 

And yes, if you were told, it should appear on the booking.

If you booked before the policy change. You should not lose your room 

We know hal reads these boards, hopefully, they will clarify this 

Also, they have stats 

This policy should only apply on cruises with more families ( summer, 7 days)  

[TRLD]

2 minutes ago, CGinMTL said:

The other question I have, how late in the booking process can they hijack your room.

If you booked 2 years out and a family of 4 wants your room 2 weeks out.

How far is that.

Once final payment is made. Rooms should be locked in 

And yes, if you were told, it should appear on the booking.

If you booked before the policy change. You should not lose your room 

We know hal reads these boards, hopefully, they will clarify this 

Also, they have stats 

This policy should only apply on cruises with more families ( summer, 7 days)  

Actually the problem is most likely to surface in the period 1-3 weeks before the cruise date when they assigning all of the guaranteed cabins.

 

This is not a case of a large party being able to request a specific cabin and get someone bumped out of it upon request.  This is when you have a number of 3-4 size parties with guarantee booking and the cruise line needs to find a cabin to put them in.

[YourWorldWithBill]

3 hours ago, Sea Hag said:

They probably might still be working on this, but for the cruise I booked the other day (through an agent on the phone for a quad on deck 10 of the Noordam for the two of us) I still see nearly all those quad cabins available for a party of two. I'll try that again in a few days and see what I see then.

Yes, I think things are changing almost daily. On the cruise I booked a couple of days ago I booked a V cabin midships. One day many cabins both aft and forward of the exact midship showed as available. The next day the cabins aft of exact midship were not available, but forward were, even though most were also marked as quads. 

[Horizon chaser 1957]

5 hours ago, coolbluegreenseas said:

Honestly, I do not think CCL has any idea what to do with HAL. The low entry line, Carnival appeals to families and budget minded tourists. The upper end cruise line, Seabourn, captures the attention of more affluent, more luxury minded cruisers. Where does this leave HAL? The business people clearly do not know. Why they don’t pivot to an adult only line that attracts couples or groups who are childfree or not interested in traveling with children is perplexing. DINKs (Dual Income, No Kids) have money and time to travel.

 

You’re welcome, CCL.

Honestly, there is a huge post COVID market of childless digital nomads who can work from their laptop anywhere in the world. If HAL is worried their current clientele are dying off, that’s the most lucrative replacement market to chase. It’s astounding that HAL is so determined to drive that market away with their Kids Sail for Free promotions. If they shift their aim a little, they could shoot themselves in the other foot, too.

[greensprout]

Our first cruises on HAL were with kids.  4 of us in an ocean view. First time the kids were 11 & 12 (12 days in the Mediterranean during my deployment leave from Afghanistan.  Second with kids was a Christmas Caribbean 10 day with kids 13 & 14.  Was very fun but will never have 4 people in a cabin again aside from a huge suite, but would hesitate even then for the privacy thing.  Personally, without kids, no more than 2 per cabin is happy, but clearly budgets do impact this.  

[3rdGenCunarder]

On 3/21/2024 at 12:49 PM, cruisemom42 said:

 

As a solo passenger, welcome to my world. Some cruise lines (not HAL, at least not in my experience) won't even let solos book cabins on certain cruises -- not even at a full supplement. Some won't let solos book Guarantee cabins. Others, like Celebrity are aggressively making solos feel unwelcome in other ways -- such as charging way ABOVE 200% supplement if they want to book. As an example, a good (on CC) friend who's sailed Celebrity solo for years wanted to book a cruise later this spring on X. For a cabin that was listed as $1099 per person, double occupany, she was quoted a rate of $5500 for a solo....

 

 

On 3/21/2024 at 3:23 PM, TiogaCruiser said:

Prior to Covid I looked at several “special “ offers that were twofers. The cost for a solo was about 3x. On HAL, private sale 

 

11 hours ago, TRLD said:

The driving force is economics.  According to the most recent SEC filing cruise lines are getting 35% of their revenue from on board spend (yes packages purchase as part of ones fare is considered to be onboard spend) this is compared to 25%  pre-covid.

 

 they put 2 in a cabin their revenue would be 2X 65 + 2 X 35=  200

3 in a cabin even if 3rd and 4th  sails free the revenue would be 2 X 65 + 3 X 35 = 235

with 4 is would be 2 X 65 + 4 X 35 = 270

 

a Cabin with 1 person even if their fare is 2 x the expected revenue is  1 X 130 + 1 X 35 = 165

 

Quite a difference in expected total revenue if they they have the max capacity available.

 

Another reason why they might select a particular room to bump is a ship cannot go over the max lifeboat capacity in a given zone, even if sufficient lifeboat capacity exists in other zones.

 

Interesting math. (I hate algebra so I didn't go through all of it, but I think you only looked at revenue and forgot to "credit" singles their $14 per day cost for food) But it doesn't support the two examples above of cruise lines gouging singles by hiking their price 3 or even 5 times the per person double occupancy price. 

[mawvkysc]

8 hours ago, Horizon chaser 1957 said:

Honestly, there is a huge post COVID market of childless digital nomads who can work from their laptop anywhere in the world. If HAL is worried their current clientele are dying off, that’s the most lucrative replacement market to chase. It’s astounding that HAL is so determined to drive that market away with their Kids Sail for Free promotions. If they shift their aim a little, they could shoot themselves in the other foot, too.

And as their current passengers “die off” some of us are coming into that time of our lives where HAL is a good fit. I’m a GenXer and so looking forward to my first HAL this spring. 

[Menocchio]

1 hour ago, 3rdGenCunarder said:

 

 

 

Interesting math. (I hate algebra so I didn't go through all of it, but I think you only looked at revenue and forgot to "credit" singles their $14 per day cost for food) But it doesn't support the two examples above of cruise lines gouging singles by hiking their price 3 or even 5 times the per person double occupancy price. 

Oh that's because they don't want solos but it's bad business to actually just say that. Solos are still better than nothing if the cruise isn't sold out late. And if they're too actively hostile to solos they may hold it against the line later if they ever make a friend and start looking for a double.

 

So what you do is:

1. Market those weird odd cabins that by some quirk of ship design are smaller or otherwise worse than the rest as "solo" cabins with a lower solo supplement. They're still more expensive per person than a double occupancy of the same class, and there's only a tiny handful of them. So you can say you're catering to the solo traveler when you make room for 12 in your ship of over 2,000.

 

2. Jack up the single supplement on every other cabin way, way high. Absurdly high. Unjustifiably high. (And outright refuse to sell solos a triple or higher occupancy stateroom) The solos stay away, which is what you're hoping for. And if the suckers bite anyway, that's just gravy. 

 

3. If the staterooms don't get sold out as the sail date approaches, start lowering the single supplement. Solos, by virtue of not needing to accommodate the needs of another whole person, are a very flexible class of traveler and can take advantage of last-minute deals. And they're better than nothing. Just don't do that too fast, since retired couples are also pretty flexible and you'd rather have those. 

 

I think that's more or less the strategy across the cruise industry, with some lines being more aggressive or obvious than others. Except for NCL, who has realized that many itty-bitty single-occupancy cabins can maybe be about as profitable as a smaller number of full-sized double occupancy staterooms. And that maybe it could pay off to be nice to solos as a class. 

Edited March 24 by Menocchio

[3rdGenCunarder]

45 minutes ago, Menocchio said:

Oh that's because they don't want solos but it's bad business to actually just say that. Solos are still better than nothing if the cruise isn't sold out late. And if they're too actively hostile to solos they may hold it against the line later if they ever make a friend and start looking for a double.

 

So what you do is:

1. Market those weird odd cabins that by some quirk of ship design are smaller or otherwise worse than the rest as "solo" cabins with a lower solo supplement. They're still more expensive per person than a double occupancy of the same class, and there's only a tiny handful of them. So you can say you're catering to the solo traveler when you make room for 12 in your ship of over 2,000.

 

2. Jack up the single supplement on every other cabin way, way high. Absurdly high. Unjustifiably high. (And outright refuse to sell solos a triple or higher occupancy stateroom) The solos stay away, which is what you're hoping for. And if the suckers bite anyway, that's just gravy. 

 

3. If the staterooms don't get sold out as the sail date approaches, start lowering the single supplement. Solos, by virtue of not needing to accommodate the needs of another whole person, are a very flexible class of traveler and can take advantage of last-minute deals. And they're better than nothing. Just don't do that too fast, since retired couples are also pretty flexible and you'd rather have those. 

 

I think that's more or less the strategy across the cruise industry, with some lines being more aggressive or obvious than others. Except for NCL, who has realized that many itty-bitty single-occupancy cabins can maybe be about as profitable as a smaller number of full-sized double occupancy staterooms. And that maybe it could pay off to be nice to solos as a class. 

 

I have to say, Cunard is kinder to solos than other lines. Until you get up to the Grills cabins, a solo pays 175% of double occupancy. And they've had single cabins, going back to the days of QE2. They were small, but fine for one. I don' t know how many people who booked them realized that they did cost more than half of a comparable double. But they still were less than being a solo paying 175% or 200% in a double cabin. 

 

 

[TRLD]

3 hours ago, 3rdGenCunarder said:

 

 

 

Interesting math. (I hate algebra so I didn't go through all of it, but I think you only looked at revenue and forgot to "credit" singles their $14 per day cost for food) But it doesn't support the two examples above of cruise lines gouging singles by hiking their price 3 or even 5 times the per person double occupancy price. 

What it does show is even at 2x normal fares the cruises lines face an opportunity loss compared to 2 in a cabin  on a mass market line. The expected revenue break even point would be a fate of about 2.5 times that paid by each passenger with 2 in a cabin.

 

The reason I did not credit the $14 per day is because the cruise lines do not place orders based upon the exact number of passengers on a given cruise. So a few solos vs a few quads  will not impact the amount spent on a given cruise.

 

Keep in mind that the 14 includes food consumed by the crew. It is just the total spent on food divided by the number of passengers.

Edited March 24 by TRLD

[Roz]

@Horizon chaser 1957, you make an excellent point about a market segment HAL could tap into. 

[LAFFNVEGAS]

16 hours ago, TRLD said:

Actually the problem is most likely to surface in the period 1-3 weeks before the cruise date when they assigning all of the guaranteed cabins.

 

This is not a case of a large party being able to request a specific cabin and get someone bumped out of it upon request.  This is when you have a number of 3-4 size parties with guarantee booking and the cruise line needs to find a cabin to put them in.

I have to disagree with your assumption, as of right now and has always been HAL will NOT sell a guarantee cabin for a triple or quad so the assigning of staterooms at 1 to 3 weeks would not apply. It actually would happen much further out from the sailing when HAL has a request from either a TA or their own PCC with a group wanting several cabins with staterooms that need 3 and 4 passengers. Often a family group wants 3 to 6 cabins all close to each other or connecting. In the past going back many years this was done once in a while. Now HAL is encouraging and accommodating these types of requests. These types of requests happens most often close to final payment but not 1 to 3 weeks from sailing. 

As a side note Princess has been doing this  since prior to the shutdown without informing their passengers even if marked do not upgrade. HAL is aggressively wanting family type groups and will do what they can to bring these small groups on board. 

[Roz]

Interesting that HAL is actively pursuing the family group market, when family friendly lines such as Carnival, Royal Caribbean,  MSC, etc. are building bigger and bigger ships. 

 

A friend who just returned from a cruise on the new Sun Princess told me the entire 9th deck is devoted to kids stuff. 

[cbr663]

33 minutes ago, LAFFNVEGAS said:

... HAL is aggressively wanting family type groups and will do what they can to bring these small groups on board. 

 

Lisa, I thought it was well known that HAL has been aggressively marketing to family and groups, but from some comments on this thread it seems some people still believe HAL is the cruise line of 10+ years ago.

[Roz]

41 minutes ago, cbr663 said:

 

Lisa, I thought it was well known that HAL has been aggressively marketing to family and groups, but from some comments on this thread it seems some people still believe HAL is the cruise line of 10+ years ago.

 

Silly me, I'm one of those people. 😁

 

HAL has been coming up with some unique, longer itineraries, which I appreciate now that I'm retired.  Those types of cruises would appeal less to families due to the higher cost and time away.  But maybe I'm entirely wrong about this.  

[LAFFNVEGAS]

30 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

Silly me, I'm one of those people. 😁

 

HAL has been coming up with some unique, longer itineraries, which I appreciate now that I'm retired.  Those types of cruises would appeal less to families due to the higher cost and time away.  But maybe I'm entirely wrong about this.  

No, you are not wrong, HAL wants their Cake and to eat it too 😀 The cruises that are 10 or less days or cruises over and near Holidays they are going into overdrive to sell to family group. Prices are higher than they have ever been but family groups tend to not be as concerned for prices which is what HAL likes. HAL is still going to also sell the longer exotic itineraries and in looking at those itineraries I am not seeing the restrictions they are giving on not offering the triple and quads for for the shorter cruises. Where I am seeing it being very obvious is on the Pinnacle Class Ships, I am not seeing it at all on the S class ships or the longer voyages of Vista Class. I did find it on some sailings of the Signature Class. 

[TRLD]

36 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

Silly me, I'm one of those people. 😁

 

HAL has been coming up with some unique, longer itineraries, which I appreciate now that I'm retired.  Those types of cruises would appeal less to families due to the higher cost and time away.  But maybe I'm entirely wrong about this.  

HAL can be thought of as having  two different foci.  The first is their main focus on being an adult focused line with smallest average ships size compared to their competition (Princess and Celebrity), having the longest average itineraries, and visits the most unique ports/destinations of the three.

 

The other main focus is to attract a younger demographic and to introduce others to the cruise line.  This primarily occurs during shorter cruises to the caribbean, Alaska, and Europe during the summer and school holiday season.  

 

It is during this period that one is most likely to get bumped for capacity reasons.

[Roz]

Going forward, I think HAL is going to find it harder and harder to compete for families with other lines that have new ships with all kinds of family and kid friendly bells and whistles.

[TRLD]

2 hours ago, LAFFNVEGAS said:

I have to disagree with your assumption, as of right now and has always been HAL will NOT sell a guarantee cabin for a triple or quad so the assigning of staterooms at 1 to 3 weeks would not apply. It actually would happen much further out from the sailing when HAL has a request from either a TA or their own PCC with a group wanting several cabins with staterooms that need 3 and 4 passengers. Often a family group wants 3 to 6 cabins all close to each other or connecting. In the past going back many years this was done once in a while. Now HAL is encouraging and accommodating these types of requests. These types of requests happens most often close to final payment but not 1 to 3 weeks from sailing. 

As a side note Princess has been doing this  since prior to the shutdown without informing their passengers even if marked do not upgrade. HAL is aggressively wanting family type groups and will do what they can to bring these small groups on board. 

We will have to agree to disagree and see exactly what happens.  According to my PCC I can still book 3/4 cabins, though they will pass on the bump warning.  He has also indicated that the main reason they are providing the warning is because the period most as risk is when they are selecting the cabins for guarantee cabins, a time when there is little choice for the person getting bumped. So if one does get bumped the odds of ending up in a less than desirable location with little alternatives goes up considerably.

Edited March 24 by TRLD

[TRLD]

1 minute ago, Roz said:

Going forward, I think HAL is going to find it harder and harder to compete for families with other lines that have new ships with all kinds of family and kid friendly bells and whistles.

Not all families like the massive ships and the same-o same-o itineraries that those large ships tend to go to. 

[wdw1972]

41 minutes ago, Roz said:

Going forward, I think HAL is going to find it harder and harder to compete for families with other lines that have new ships with all kinds of family and kid friendly bells and whistles.

Let's hope! However, for those parents who are more inclined to pick the line that suits them best (vs the kids), HAL seems to be a good choice.  I can only hope most of the families will lean towards the other lines and let HAL focus on the adults (with a handful of kids onboard at most).

 

Sue/WDW1972

[crystalspin]

45 minutes ago, TRLD said:

According to my PCC I can still book 3/4 cabins, though they will pass on the bump warning.  He has also indicated that the main reason they are providing the warning is because the period most as risk is when they are selecting the cabins for guarantee cabins, a time when there is little choice for the person getting bumped. So if one does get bumped the odds of ending up in a less than desirable location with little alternatives goes up considerably.

This agrees with my take on my PCC's words. I would still rather be on the Observation Deck (Vista Class ship), but the $2000 savings in booking eases the pain of climbing two flights of stairs somewhat.