CCL Stock In Decline

[kryos]

[quote name='hammybee']Given every cruise line has a substantial presence in Europe, why single out HAL? [/QUOTE]

Sorry if I gave that impression.

I was only "singling" out HAL because that is the line whose literature I tend to read most ... whose advertising materials I don't just toss in the trash when they come.

Yes, it is definitely all cruise lines that are based there, and I still say that while it may be slightly cheaper to sail Europe rather than do a land trip, it's not that much cheaper. Don't forget, you're probably going to have at least a one-day pre and post-cruise stay ... involving hotel and food costs ... and you're still gonna pay through the nose for your shore excursions (because those tour operators have to be paid in Euros by HAL (or whatever cruise line). I won't mention airfare to get over to Europe, because obviously you'd have to pay that either way ... whether you did a land trip or a cruise.

All I am saying is that Europe is very, very expensive these days no matter how you slice or dice it, and the cruise lines ... all of them that are sailing Europe ... are trying to convince us that cruising is such a great deal because you are "paying for everything in dollars." Well, duh ... I may be paying in dollars, but surely I'm paying the same amount as the folks on that UK ship across the harbor where the onboard currency is Euros ... I'm just paying in dollars converted to the Euro's value ... because I have to pay my share of what the cruise line spends for various components of my cruise ... food, fuel, tours, etc. If they are paying inflated values for those things because of the poor performance of the dollar against the Euro, then I too am gonna pay those higher rates ... unless, of course, the cruise lines have decided to play Santa Claus and eat the higher costs for me?

So, no ... I am not singling out HAL. I worded that previous post poorly to make it seem that way and I am sorry.

Blue skies ...

--rita

[Jade13]

[quote name='DesertDogs'][LEFT][FONT=Garamond-Light-SC700][SIZE=1][COLOR=#231f20]Here is the fax number from the Carnival Corp website:[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][/LEFT]

[LEFT][SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light-SC700][COLOR=#231f20]Holland America Line[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]
[FONT=Garamond-Light][SIZE=1][COLOR=#231f20]World Cruise Reservations[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light][COLOR=#231f20]300 Elliott Avenue West[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light][COLOR=#231f20]Seattle, WA 98119[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light][COLOR=#231f20]Tel 800-522-3399[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light][COLOR=#231f20]Fax 206-281-0627[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE][/LEFT]
[/quote]

How many days in advance do they need this info in order to give you the on-board credit?

[hartjanet]

I don't know how long in advance you need to get them the info for your stock-related OBC. I imagine sooner is better, but it doesn't say on the website info, which is at:

[url]http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/14/140/140690/items/287713/Carn_Benefit.pdf[/url]

[toeknee]

I do not think it is Carnival outlook causing the decline it is all the problems put together and the general decline overall in the market that is the problem. Yhis problem will not be solved until the supply of oil starts to outstip the demand and this will only happen when production and refining capacity worldwide increases.





[COLOR="Purple"][/COLOR] We've got plenty of oil in our tar sands

[DesertDogs]

[quote name='Jade13']How many days in advance do they need this info in order to give you the on-board credit?[/quote]

I sent ours last month for our Oct 08 cruise and our TA confirmed. You can send it anytime before you sail.

If it is close to sailing, I would take a copy with me.

[jerseygirl3]

I think I'd hold out longer before buying CCL. I made the mistake of purchasing RCI about 6 weeks ago and paid $34/share. It's now down to $22/share. I think CCL will continue to fall over the coming weeks.

[m steve]

we need to stop buying anything from China, India and Brazil and their economies can go down and they will not need the oil and we can drive and travel as we are used to doing and we won't have to drill in Alaska (shipping oil to Japan and China) or off the coasts (so we can get all the seagulls and pelicans to become black birds) . Now off the soap box and back to commenting on cruise coffee (from Costa Rica or Columbia).

[cruisecrasy]

[quote name='m steve']we need to stop buying anything from China, India and Brazil and their economies can go down and they will not need the oil and we can drive and travel as we are used to doing and we won't have to drill in Alaska (shipping oil to Japan and China) or off the coasts (so we can get all the seagulls and pelicans to become black birds) . Now off the soap box and back to commenting on cruise coffee (from Costa Rica or Columbia).[/QUOTE]

U have nailed at least one problem :)

Stop buying cheap foreign goods and support higher priced goods from home grown industries before there aren't any and the foreigners own us!!

Our standard of living will drop some and yes it may hurt a bit but better than the alternative thats comin' if we don't!!

So which coffee do u prefer? I'm a blender myself :)

[cruisecrasy]

Sorry double post :(

[Hope to Cruise]

Reading the "Get Packing" blurb from Carnival about the OBC for owning stock it states:

it "cannot be used for casino credits/charges and gratuities charged to your onboard account".

This puzzles me. I get the casino part but don't understand the reference to gratuities. Since the gratuity charge is put into my OB account, why would I not be able to use any balance in the account to pay for them?

Anyone with experience using this benefit please explain it to me.

[RuthC]

[quote name='Hope to Cruise']Anyone with experience using this benefit please explain it to me.[/quote]
[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3][COLOR=royalblue]My experience is that I start out with a credit. Then the charges are applied, reducing the credit as they go along. A running tally, as it were, is kept. Eventually my charges exceed my credit, and the balance goes on my credit card. [/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

[richwmn]

[quote name='RuthC'][FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3][COLOR=royalblue]My experience is that I start out with a credit. Then the charges are applied, reducing the credit as they go along. A running tally, as it were, is kept. Eventually my charges exceed my credit, and the balance goes on my credit card. [/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][/quote]
This is my experience as well. If, at the end of the cruise, $120 has been charged to your cabin including gratuities, they will only ask you for $20. Don't worry about it.

Rich

[fcorey]

[quote name='Gonzo70']I do not agree with many of your points:

1) That people are becoming sick of planes and hotels is something that hurts the cruise lines. Most people taking cruises fly to the port and many stay in hotels before and/or after the cruise.

2) Yes the overall market is down of late, but CCL and other travel related stocks are going down at a much higher rate than the overall market (i.e. they are significantly underperforming the S&P 500).

3) Although [I]currently [/I]the quarterly dividend is great, when companies are experiencing a decrease in revenue and the condition does not appear to be temporary that is responsible (in this case high cost of oil) companies commonly have to cut their dividend. This can then have the subsequent impact of driving the stock down even further.

4) The PE ratio is extremely deceptive right now for CCL. It is based on prior earnings and currently earnings are likely being greatly reduced by the poor economic conditions. Earnings are going down; possibly dramatically down and stocks tend to trade on where earnings are headed far more than where earnings have been. If a companies earnings are changing a great deal a PE ration is rather meaningless.

5) Several analysts have recently been downgrading travel related stocks. I believe that this trend is likely to continue. As each analyst who still rates the stock a buy cuts their rating, this often results in a drop in price of the stock.

Perhaps I am wrong and the stock rebounds (or at least stabilizes) but I just think this is a bad time to be investing in a company that's profits are at the mercy of the cost of oil. Until oil stabilizes I am staying away.[/quote]

Sadly all very valid points. I will be on the sidelines waiting a bit. When I think it has bottomed out I'll buy 100-200 shares so I can at least get the OBC, and it wont be too much of an investment. The cruiselines are huge consumers of oil, the current situation is going to be hurting them, no question. I think that many here look at this as an opportunity to invest a little bit of money and get the OBC perk which is ok. But I also would not put allot of money into any industry that is at the mercy if discretionary spending at this time.

[m steve]

Your bar bills and on board purchases will eat up whatever credit you get.

[hammybee]

[quote name='localady'][FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3][COLOR=blue]Absolutely right HammyBee!:D [/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3][COLOR=blue]DH and I are planning on taking a 28 day transatlantic on the Oosterdam next year. Our per day cost for an SY cabin for the 28 days in under $200 dollars per person. I know we couldn't get by on $400 per day in Europe and see it in the style we choose.........;) :D [/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]
[/quote]

Sounds like a fabulous plan.

Oridinary rooms at Marriott like hotels are often running more than $700 a night in the heart of major European cities. That's before all the taxes are piled on and then there is food. Cruising is an incredible value compared to staying at a decent hotel in Europe.

Are you sailing the Oosterdam to or from Europe?

[localady]

[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=4]HammyBee-[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=4]We are sailing from Venice to Ft. Lauderdale as we prefer the long flight first, and really enjoy the extra hours going westward!;) I love "coming home" on the ship to a tighty room and warm dinner after the totally exhausting but memorable days in Europe.:D :D [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=4][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=4][/SIZE][/FONT]

[Taxguy77]

[quote name='m steve']we need to stop buying anything from China, India and Brazil and their economies can go down and they will not need the oil and we can drive and travel as we are used to doing and we won't have to drill in Alaska (shipping oil to Japan and China) or off the coasts (so we can get all the seagulls and pelicans to become black birds) . Now off the soap box and back to commenting on cruise coffee (from Costa Rica or Columbia).[/QUOTE]

[U]Brazil[U][/U][/U]
20 years ago they made a decision to reduce their dependence on oil (Ttey don't have any) and now most of the cars and trucks run on 85% ethanol produced by their own economy.:D and renewable!

[Taxguy77]

[quote name='prescottbob']...wobbly at the moment.

I have more immediate concerns. Perhaps someone could help.

My options:

1. Help my 25 yr old DD "buy" her first house & cancel a forthcoming HAL cruise in Novemeber.

2. Help my daughter, go on the cruise and work more hours prior to the scheduled embarkation.

3. Help my daughter, go on the cruise, worker more and cut back on brand name tequilla for weekend margaritas (maybe:D ).

I choose #3.

What is a CC'er to do?

Bon Voyage & Good Health!
Bob:)[/QUOTE]

Houses are losing value, so teach your DD patience and the art of finding real value in any market. That delays #1.
Is it better to work more hours, or spend the time with the DD?:confused: Only you can answer that.
#3 is :eek:

[m steve]

This is a reflexion of the economy (are you listening George?) and not the operation by Carnival. The low on Wed. of $32.40 is off about 30% from when I bought it. Since they won't give any more that one OBC I guess the dividends don't help me enough to buy more shares. $1.60 is a 5% return on investment.

[kryos]

[quote name='hammybee']Sounds like a fabulous plan.

Oridinary rooms at Marriott like hotels are often running more than $700 a night in the heart of major European cities. That's before all the taxes are piled on and then there is food. Cruising is an incredible value compared to staying at a decent hotel in Europe.
[/QUOTE]
Holy Cannolli! You can't be serious! I paid about 200 euros (and my cabin mate paid another $200) for a one-night stay at Foresceti (sp?) Palace in Venice last year, but that was a far cry from a Marriott! We're talking marble floors, high marble ceilings, sunken whirlpool tub ... pure elegance ... central location ... the works!

If this is where the rates have gone since that trip last year, I guess I'll never be setting foot in Europe again in my lifetime. Between the escalating cost of airfare, and the possibility of needing a hotel room for at least one night at the beginning and/or end of the cruise, I simply couldn't afford it.

Guess it'll be the Caribbean for me in the next few years! And you know what? That's perfectly fine.

Blue skies ...

--rita

[FlorenceItaly]

Many of us on the Fall Prisendam cruise have used Priceline and received the Intercontinental in Athens. The bid ranges have been from about $103-$110 US dollars, plus taxes and fees which is minimal.

Edited to say...Rita, I still wish I were on the Statendam with you, but it was my time for the Prisendam. For many reasons, it was now or never. I hope they continue to offer the Hawaii/South Pacific cruises 30-35 days because I still hope to take it!



Marie

[fireman845]

[quote name='Taxguy77'][U]Brazil[/U]
20 years ago they made a decision to reduce their dependence on oil (Ttey don't have any) and now most of the cars and trucks run on 85% ethanol produced by their own economy.:D and renewable![/quote]


[SIZE=4][COLOR=blue]Very true, I wonder what the difference between how many total autos are in Brazil has compared to the US.[/COLOR][/SIZE]
[SIZE=4][COLOR=blue][/COLOR][/SIZE]
[SIZE=4][COLOR=blue]Also, there has been a lot of talk about drilling more oil in Alaska (since that was REALLY one of the reason for buying Alaska in the 1800's was for the natural resources) but the oil we get from Alaska now, we are selling a good amount to China...[/COLOR][/SIZE]
[SIZE=4][COLOR=blue][/COLOR][/SIZE]
[SIZE=4][COLOR=blue]Any Thoughts?[/COLOR][/SIZE]

[Palms2Pines2Sea]

[SIZE=3]Back to the original topic.......[/SIZE]
[SIZE=3][/SIZE]
[SIZE=3]CCL stock hit it's 52-week low at approx 1PM today.[/SIZE]

[fireman845]

[quote name='Palms2Pines2Sea'][SIZE=3]Back to the original topic.......[/SIZE]

[SIZE=3]CCL stock hit it's 52-week low at approx 1PM today.[/SIZE][/quote]


[SIZE=4][COLOR=blue]It is falling like a rock!!![/COLOR][/SIZE]

[JunPOA]

I sold my CCL back in DEC when it was at what I think was annual highest for '08 @ around 51 or so.
Now its more affordable - but what is the minimum # of shares I have to buy to get the oBC - sorry this is probbaly a redundant question been asked 10K X on this board.:D