CCL Stock In Decline

[fireman845]

Has anyone been watching the Carnival Corp. stock lately? It has been in a decline for quite awhile. Right now it is 34.9, the lowest I have seen in a long time! Any comments or concerns?

[pms4104]

Maybe it's the time to buy for those interested in the CCL stock OBC.

[CowPrincess]

I've been watching it for a couple of months, as we will be purchasing it to get the OBCs it offers. IMHO, it will go lower. I'm not jumping in yet -- I'm sure that I'll buy 'high" and it will drop after I purchase (just based on my own personal investment history :) )

 

Cruise ships, land based vacations, tourism in general (again JMHO) will be taking a huge hit until oil prices drop or until society in general adjusts to the higher costs involved in regular ol' day to day life (and my experience suggests it'll be 3 or 4 years before that adjustment is made). The very wealthy will continue to spend; the portion of the middle class which is accustomed to having a fair amount of disposable income is going to have to cut back substantially.

 

Not trying to get a war started, this is all JMHO.

[JimVrhovac]

You have to think long term......

 

Thinkins short term is what corporate executives are doing and that is what is causing a lot of problems.

 

I do not think it is Carnival outlook causing the decline it is all the problems put together and the general decline overall in the market that is the problem. Yhis problem will not be solved until the supply of oil starts to outstip the demand and this will only happen when production and refining capacity worldwide increases.

 

Our government is finally waiking up and there is a lot of talk about the need to drill for oil and get serious about coal and wind prduction and the need for a lot more Nuclear power plants.

 

France gets 80% of its energy from nuclear plants and they do not seem to have any problems.

 

If you have a divercified portfolio you should not have any real problems. Mine is only down 2% SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR AND THAT IS NOT BAD..

 

Ruth & Jim

[Barek]

Has anyone been watching the Carnival Corp. stock lately? It has been in a decline for quite awhile. Right now it is 34.9, the lowest I have seen in a long time! Any comments or concerns?

Several analysts have been cutting their ratings on travel-related stocks. This, combined with nervousness approaching Thursday's reporting of Carnival Corp's fiscal Q2 results have combined to bring it down. After the results are reported, there will likely be another quick snap (depending on how those results turn out, the snap will either be caused by people jumping out of the stock if the numbers are worse than expected, or people getting back in if the numbers aren't as bad as feared) ... then the stock should settle down again for a couple months until the next quarterly results are given.

 

It's a sign of the times ... rougher economic conditions often result in more volatile stock prices as people have twitchier trigger-fingers on the buy/sell buttons.

[hartjanet]

I believe is is a good value now... that as people get sick of dealing with airports, hotels, and gas stations that the cruiselines will benefit - especially because of the massive number of boomers reaching retirement and the increasing appeal of cruises to young families. The stock is at its 52 week low, but so are many good stocks that got hammered by fuel costs and the economy. I don't see evidence of scary level insider trading. It pays a decent dividend . The PE ratio is good. And my broker (Edward Jones) lists it as a buy, with most listing it as a buy or neutral. Plus, the OBC is a nice non-taxable perk. On our upcoming 30 day South Pacific cruise it's $250 OBC. If I had the stock last fall when we did an 18 day cruise it would have saved me $250 then, too. All that said, I just bought 100 shares and if it goes lower, so be it. It's hard to think it could get hugely lower at this point, but who knows? I've made that mistake before :). They have a conference call tomorrow moring that might have an impact.

[fireman845]

I believe is is a good value now... that as people get sick of dealing with airports, hotels, and gas stations that the cruiselines will benefit - especially because of the massive number of boomers reaching retirement and the increasing appeal of cruises to young families. The stock is at its 52 week low, but so are many good stocks that got hammered by fuel costs and the economy. I don't see evidence of scary level insider trading. It pays a decent dividend . The PE ratio is good. And my broker (Edward Jones) lists it as a buy, with most listing it as a buy or neutral. Plus, the OBC is a nice non-taxable perk. On our upcoming 30 day South Pacific cruise it's $250 OBC. If I had the stock last fall when we did an 18 day cruise it would have saved me $250 then, too. All that said, I just bought 100 shares and if it goes lower, so be it. It's hard to think it could get hugely lower at this point, but who knows? I've made that mistake before :). They have a conference call tomorrow moring that might have an impact.

 

 

I believe it too to be a good time to buy, as IF it goes a lower I don't believe it to go too much more... Especially with the 2Q numbers coming out tomorrow. But you just never know!!! :)

[docksider21]

As long as the OBC keeping on coming, I am not too concerned about

the price!!! What a great excuse -- I HAVE to book this cruise

because I have OBC I need to use. LOL. :p

[Cooks_Bay]

Same story for RCCL. These stocks rise and fall with GDP numbers. Good growth = more disposable income. Slow growth = less disposable income.

[Tampa Girl]

Can someone please enlighten me as to the OBC's when purchasing CC stock? Is it per 100 shares or what - and how much do you get in OBC and how long is it good for? Thanks anyone, in advance.

 

Virginia

[JimVrhovac]

Need to own 100 shares of Carnival Stock

 

14+ days 250.00

7-13 days 100.00

0-6 days 50.00

 

per cabin not per person.

 

All you have to do is fax something that verifies stock information and booking number to HAL and they give you the credit and notify your TA. Have never had they notify me directly of receipt of OBC.

 

Hope this helps

[prescottbob]

but for those who can accept some risk and have some spare "dough" it doesn't appear to be a bad time to purchase additional shares. We're talking Dec.'03 lows here. For those that might have purchased some shares in the high 40's, etc. you can reduce your "exposure", as it were.

 

My own purchases (purchased a while back & a small portion of our stock portfolio really):

 

100 X 36.00 = $3600

100 X 40.00 = $4000

 

Average price: = 7600 / 200 = $ 38 / share

 

If I were to pick up another 100 shares @, let's say, $35 / share then the

average price would then be $11100 / 300 shares = $ 37 / share.

 

Don't know if it would be worth it for me unless 'we' get down to a trading price of $30-31 / share but for those with shares purchased at higher pricing you might want to pencil it out just for kicks.

 

Think of the long term and don't get worked up over onboard credits, etc. (heck it's been eaten up by oil surcharges anyhow). Eyeball the financials and go from there IMO.

 

May everyone's next cruise be a WONDERFUL CRUISE!

 

Bon Voyage & Good Health!

Bob:)

[Krazy Kruizers]

Not worried here -- we bought it years ago when it was only $12 a share!!!!

We have really made out over the years - between shipboard credit and dividends,

[m steve]

this year is has dropped from $52.10 to $34.48 as of noon today. That's a big swing loosing 1/3 .of it's value. It will take a lot of cruises to make up for this. Now does seem like agood time to buy if you want the credits and cruise a lot.

[Gonzo70]

Why do y'all think it is a good buy here? It is down for a very good reason. Fuel prices have shot up rapdily and are not likely to go down anytime soon (and may very well go up much, much higher). This causes their fuel costs to go up immensely from prior years and they can only pass on so much of this to passengers before many will look for other types of vacations. The high cost of oil also is causing dramatic increases in the cost of food; another huge expense for the cruise lines. The airlines are now tacking on fees, cutting flights, and making flying less and less pleasant which will lessen the number of people willing to fly to ports who do not live near a port. People also have less discretionary money to spend, so even if they can still afford to cruise many people are spending less once on board. It is a nightmare situation for the cruise lines and one that may take years to resolve. I personally am afraid that there is very little upside for the forseeable future and much more downside.

[Gonzo70]

I believe is is a good value now... that as people get sick of dealing with airports, hotels, and gas stations that the cruiselines will benefit - especially because of the massive number of boomers reaching retirement and the increasing appeal of cruises to young families. The stock is at its 52 week low, but so are many good stocks that got hammered by fuel costs and the economy. I don't see evidence of scary level insider trading. It pays a decent dividend . The PE ratio is good. And my broker (Edward Jones) lists it as a buy, with most listing it as a buy or neutral. Plus, the OBC is a nice non-taxable perk. On our upcoming 30 day South Pacific cruise it's $250 OBC. If I had the stock last fall when we did an 18 day cruise it would have saved me $250 then, too. All that said, I just bought 100 shares and if it goes lower, so be it. It's hard to think it could get hugely lower at this point, but who knows? I've made that mistake before :). They have a conference call tomorrow moring that might have an impact.

 

I do not agree with many of your points:

 

1) That people are becoming sick of planes and hotels is something that hurts the cruise lines. Most people taking cruises fly to the port and many stay in hotels before and/or after the cruise.

 

2) Yes the overall market is down of late, but CCL and other travel related stocks are going down at a much higher rate than the overall market (i.e. they are significantly underperforming the S&P 500).

 

3) Although currently the quarterly dividend is great, when companies are experiencing a decrease in revenue and the condition does not appear to be temporary that is responsible (in this case high cost of oil) companies commonly have to cut their dividend. This can then have the subsequent impact of driving the stock down even further.

 

4) The PE ratio is extremely deceptive right now for CCL. It is based on prior earnings and currently earnings are likely being greatly reduced by the poor economic conditions. Earnings are going down; possibly dramatically down and stocks tend to trade on where earnings are headed far more than where earnings have been. If a companies earnings are changing a great deal a PE ration is rather meaningless.

 

5) Several analysts have recently been downgrading travel related stocks. I believe that this trend is likely to continue. As each analyst who still rates the stock a buy cuts their rating, this often results in a drop in price of the stock.

 

Perhaps I am wrong and the stock rebounds (or at least stabilizes) but I just think this is a bad time to be investing in a company that's profits are at the mercy of the cost of oil. Until oil stabilizes I am staying away.

[Northshorecruisers]

Does the OBC stay the same no matter how many shares you have?

If 100 shares is the minimum - if you have 200 shares do you get twice as much OBC?

[Krazy Kruizers]

Does the OBC stay the same no matter how many shares you have?

If 100 shares is the minimum - if you have 200 shares do you get twice as much OBC?

 

Nope!!

 

Trust me - if that had been the case years ago we would have bought 500 shares.

[Northshorecruisers]

But every little bit of OBC helps these days!

[kryos]

Has anyone been watching the Carnival Corp. stock lately? It has been in a decline for quite awhile. Right now it is 34.9, the lowest I have seen in a long time! Any comments or concerns?

All stock is declining. It'll come back up in time. Like someone else said, now might be a good time to buy?

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

[kryos]

Perhaps I am wrong and the stock rebounds (or at least stabilizes) but I just think this is a bad time to be investing in a company that's profits are at the mercy of the cost of oil. Until oil stabilizes I am staying away.

I still say, though, there is a substantial part of the population that is going to take their vacations regardless of what the economy does. Cruises are among the best values around ... especially for families.

 

I don't think cruise stocks are as much at the mercy of the price of oil as other transportation-related stocks. There are some people ... and a goodly amount of them ... who will still find a cruise vacation to be a great deal for them and their family. They can cut expenses in other areas ... such as take less shore excursions or far more modest ones, and make the ship the primary vacation destination; staying in a cheaper hotel pre-cruise and doing no post-cruise hotel, driving to the port instead of flying (a real money-saver if you can fill a vehicle with bodies and luggage ... as in sharing it with other family members and then having the advantage of maybe four drivers who can switch off so as not to need to allow for overnight hotel stays in route; or better still, sailing out of home ports where getting to the pier is as simple as asking a neighbor to drive you over. You get my point. There are ways to still take your cruise vacation and do so economically ... lesser accommodations on the ship, no specialty restaurants, limiting drinks and other extra-cost items. The list goes on and on.

 

And don't forget ... there are still a significant number of people who are actually not feeling the pain of this economy yet. Their kids are still going to summer camp and they are still planning their fancy WDW and cruise vacations. These families are generally the two-wage-earner families, with both husband and wife having fairly decent jobs. It'll be quite a while yet before they cut back on vacations and other discretionary income.

 

So I think a lot of the drop in CCL and other cruise-related stocks is more a factor of all stocks dropping. They'll come back up fine when we get a new regime in the White House.

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

 

 

So I don't think

[u4ea]

Many believe (including myself) that peak oil is looming. Ships don’t run on anything else, in fact, oil is the foundation of all economies. Here is an excellent essay on the subject. (PDF 19pages)

http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/eman/The%20End%20of%20Oil%20essay%201.pdf

 

Mark…

[Richard in Panama]

We've had a good ride with Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Princess (now PLC) . . . the high cost of oil is hurting the entire industry . . . and the question might be what has happened in the past 8 years to drive up the cost of oil . . . or is it just "artificial" and driven up by speculators . . . ? Hopefully we can change our direction to a more "green' economy and less bombastic world presence . . . and eventually things will return to normal. In the meantime we're all going to have to live with more and more emphasis on "on board revenue" . . . the good and the bad.

 

Carnival is an extreemly well-managed company IMHO and I believe it will ride out the storm. If I was of the mind to put more money in the market, I'd carefully consider cruise stocks, but I am a long term investor.

 

Regards, Richard

[prescottbob]

...wobbly at the moment.

 

I have more immediate concerns. Perhaps someone could help.

 

My options:

 

1. Help my 25 yr old DD "buy" her first house & cancel a forthcoming HAL cruise in Novemeber.

 

2. Help my daughter, go on the cruise and work more hours prior to the scheduled embarkation.

 

3. Help my daughter, go on the cruise, worker more and cut back on brand name tequilla for weekend margaritas (maybe:D ).

 

I choose #3.

 

What is a CC'er to do?

 

Bon Voyage & Good Health!

Bob:)

[bepsf]

Many believe (including myself) that peak oil is looming. Ships don’t run on anything else, in fact, oil is the foundation of all economies. Here is an excellent essay on the subject. (PDF 19pages)

http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/eman/The%20End%20of%20Oil%20essay%201.pdf

 

Mark…

 

Agreed - ANWAR only contains enough oil to solely supply US current demand for 7 months. The California coast has even less.

 

Even if the new development of "Bug Fuel" came to commercial production today (most see it as 5-7 years off), 19.6 Million barrels of oil per day would have to be produced just to meet current US demand. There simply isn't that much switch grass, wheat stalks or wood chips on the planet to fuel the bacteria to make that much Bio-Petroleum.

 

CCL, NCL and RCCL aren't filling the ships they have now - Adding 15,000-20,000 more berths in the next 2-3 years isn't going to help matters any. Check out this thread from the Carnival Forum

 

I'm glad I sold at $60, and I have no intention to buy any travel stocks, because I don't see any "comeback" - kinda like Railroads and Dot-Coms...