CCL Stock In Decline

[kenish]

I'm glad I sold at $60, and I have no intention to buy any travel stocks, because I don't see any "comeback" - kinda like Railroads and Dot-Coms...

 

I agree with you on cruise lines right now. OTOH, a fairly large number of people will always need to fly (until some new technology makes airliners obsolete). The devilish detail is correctly figuring out which 2 or 3 airlines will be the survivors!

[kryos]

I agree with you on cruise lines right now. OTOH, a fairly large number of people will always need to fly (until some new technology makes airliners obsolete). The devilish detail is correctly figuring out which 2 or 3 airlines will be the survivors!

I'm waiting for the day that "Scotty" can just beam me up to wherever I wanna go. Then the airlines can all kiss my dierrear. :)

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

[the2ofus]

If I understand correctly, the oil that is coming over the Alaskan pipeline never makes it to the lower 48. It is shipped overseas. So the oil companies want us to believe that oil drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge will benefit US citizens and relieve our oil crunch? If they get their way, I have a pretty good guess who will really benefit, as we'll see in their obscene annual profit statistics.

 

I'm one of those who bought CCL when the price was up. I'm hanging on to it. My OBC has at least kept pace with my losses and I hope to sail on HAL many more times.

[hammybee]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080619/carnival.html?.v=2

[m steve]

83C as of noon

[fireman845]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080619/carnival.html?.v=2

 

 

After reading the 2Q profits for CCL I am feeling a little better than I was yesterday... Of course the oil prices are going to hit them like everyone else, but they are still booking cruises for next 12mos on schedule with the past history and at a higher price. Which for my measly 200 shares is going to be good in the long run I believe.

Although, It does not help my pocket book for future HAL cruises!!:rolleyes:

[Gonzo70]

If I understand correctly, the oil that is coming over the Alaskan pipeline never makes it to the lower 48. It is shipped overseas. So the oil companies want us to believe that oil drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge will benefit US citizens and relieve our oil crunch? If they get their way, I have a pretty good guess who will really benefit, as we'll see in their obscene annual profit statistics.

 

In terms of the cost of oil, it doesn't really matter where oil pulled from one particular area ends up being used. All that matters is the overall supply versus the overall demand. So long as more oil is being put onto the market, this will drive the cost of a barrel of oil down.

[m steve]

Carnival stock has turned around and is up $1.87 because all the CC readers went out and bought it at a low to get the OBC's.

[localady]

I would not be surprised if we see more ships pulled out of Europe and put back into US waters for 2009 summer season. Projections I saw recently appear to forecast an over-abundance of berths in Europe during Summer 2009 and an under-abundance of cruisers willing and/or able to deal with the airline headaches as well as the horrible exchange rate for cruises in Europe.

They say that Europeans are also being hit quite hard by the rising gas costs too.

Indeed S7S you may get your wish for HAL ships back in the Caribbean or possibly Bermuda during the summer.;)

[m steve]

the market taketh away...down $1.45 at noon.

[u4ea]

Has Carnival Corp stopped ordering new ships?:confused: (besides the ones currently on order) Anyone know?

Mark...

[hammybee]

Has Carnival Corp stopped ordering new ships?:confused: (besides the ones currently on order) Anyone know?

Mark...

 

This was announced a few months ago. Good move on their part, I think.

[Zyzygy]

as a resident financial idiot, let me say the following. Even though a few more mega-ships are coming on line, most cruise lines have already acquired the bulk of their fleets at pre-energy inflation costs.

 

Even though engine fuel is going to be costly in the coming years, the capital costs of these ships has already been set at a pretty low level, compared to the future energy costs necessary to build alternate travel accommodations.

 

And these fleets have long working lives; Carnival is still sailing ships built more than 20 years ago.

 

So...traveling with a company whose major capital costs have already been fixed at a pre-energy inflation level should be a relative bargain.

 

The reason that Europe is such a hot cruise destination now is that cruisers are relatively protected from the fall of the dollar and lousy exchange rates on land.

 

So...even if high engine fuel costs make cruise lines a dicey investment in the short term, the relatively low acquisition costs for their existing fleets make them a long-term bargain, especially as the falling dollar doesn't look like it's going to be very attractive for competing, land-based travel overseas.

 

And cruise lines--especially Carnival--have made it a point to base ships all along the U.S. coastline, so that much of the U.S. is only a day's drive away from a departure port.

 

Even with rising fuel prices, cruise lines should still be able to offer value in comparison to other, competing forms of travel, especially land-based foreign travel.

 

So long as people can still affort to travel at all, cruises should remain a relative bargain for the public, which should stll mean a decent bottom line for the cruise companies.

 

Just a few thoughts from an idiot.

[happy cruzer]

zyzygy said - So long as people can still affort to travel at all, cruises should remain a relative bargain for the public, which should stll mean a decent bottom line for the cruise companies. And I agree!

 

To me that's the point. If a family/person can consider a vacation, then the cruise industry will be right there competively. If things are so tight that you can't travel on vacation, the entire vacation travel industry will hurt. It's not a cruise a thing in my opinion, the cruise corps are competively managed. Our budget is tighter; we will vacation on less. Sure enjoyed Barcelona earlier this year on a cruise paid for the year before. Galveston, here I come!

[kryos]

I would not be surprised if we see more ships pulled out of Europe and put back into US waters for 2009 summer season. Projections I saw recently appear to forecast an over-abundance of berths in Europe during Summer 2009 and an under-abundance of cruisers willing and/or able to deal with the airline headaches as well as the horrible exchange rate for cruises in Europe.

And the fact that the cruise lines are trying to sell U.S. passengers the bill of goods that sailing Europe is a great deal because they can pay for everything in dollars instead of Euros. What a crock of you know what! Yeah, you're paying in dollars, true ... but don't you think how many dollars you pay is being converted to Euros before you pay it? What do you think HAL uses to bunker fuel over there? You think those folks are accepting dollar bills? Not on your life! They want Euros! And what do you think HAL has to pay for foodstuffs with? Dollars? Yeah, right. Euros there too. And what about shore excursions? Do you think those tour conductors are accepting dollars? Not on your life. They want Euros.

 

So, HAL has been trying to sell us a bill of goods to get U.S. residents to sail Europe. Pay in dollars instead of Euros and save a bundle! No, you don't save much ... maybe just the cost of a hotel room that you would have to pay for if you did a land tour, and some of the expense of food on land. Everything else, including shipboard accommodations, food on the ship, etc., are being charged for at their Euro value even though the passenger is paying in U.S. dollars. And, then, to make matters worse, the passenger seeking to sail Europe also has to pay for the flights to get over there ... and pay through the nose because the cost of airfare is skyrocketing as well.

 

That's why HAL will bring a lot of ships back from Europe. All the cruise lines will. Because finally the passengers are realizing what a crock they were handed when they were encouraged by the cruise lines to see Europe this year ... cheaply ... by ship. This is a bad time to visit Europe by any means ... ship or land tour.

 

Cheaply my you know what. :)

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

[kryos]

[quote name='Zyzygy']Just a few thoughts from an idiot.[/QUOTE]
You don't sound like much of an idiot to me. I think those are some very wise observations, in fact.

By the way, true Carnival is still sailing ships that were built 20 years ago, but they will still want newer ships as those older ones are not anywhere near as efficient to operate as the newer ships. Since the newer ones can be operated more efficiently, fares can be kept lower and thus they have a better chance of being filled week after week. The only way to drop fares on the older ships is to take a loss on the sale of the cabin ... and most cruise lines would prefer not to do that.

With HAL, consider the cost of a cruise on the Prisendam versus one say on the Zuiderdam. For the sake of argument, imagine the same itinerary, same number of days on both ships, the same exact accommodation category. Guarantee you the cabin on the Zuiderdam can be had for far cheaper than the identical cabin on the Prisendam. That's why the Prisendam tends to do more exotic itineraries ... so that the increased cost can be somewhat "masked." People will chalk it up to the cost of doing that special itinerary and won't have as much trouble paying it as they would if they were taking a cruise somewhere that another larger HAL ship was going for much cheaper.

That's why all the cruise lines want to keep a relatively new fleet if they can.

That's why cruises on NCL (the cruise line with probably the youngest fleet on the seas) are relatively cheap when compared to a HAL cruise in similar accommodations. The ships can be run more efficiently and thus the prices can be kept down ... letting them sail pretty much full week after week ... and at a nice profit.

Blue skies ...

--rita

[m steve]

It was $32. something this am.I now need to book 4 more cruises to stay even.

[hammybee]

[quote name='kryos']
So, HAL has been trying to sell us a bill of goods to get U.S. residents to sail Europe. Blue skies ...--rita[/quote]

Given every cruise line has a substantial presence in Europe, why single out HAL?

In terms of being sold a bill of goods, I beg your indulgence and differ with your conclusions.

For most people traveling in Europe, hotels and food are their primary costs. The Marriott in Rome is going for about $788 USD for an ordinary room. This does not include taxes. The sky is the limit as it relates to food and most people do not eat all their meals in fast food establishments.

It's been possible to snag a decent balcony cabin for about $150-175 p/p, per day, in prime time. As we all know, this includes food, transporation and entertainment. It's probably reasonable that one can save about 50-75% of the base cost of a land trip, more, if willing to accept an inside or outside cabin.

Given most folk traveling to Europe do not do so, to sit in their hotel rooms or cabins, everything else is indeed going to cost. Tours, car rentals, shopping and so on always add up. But when one is saving so much by cruising, it's not the dent it might otherwise be.

HaL seems to be doing reasonably well in Europe, this summer. Most of July and August are sold out. The ships are full. The wine is flowing. And people are taking advantage of the most cost effeciaent way of vacationing in Europe.

[prescottbob]

[quote name='hammybee']Given every cruise line has a substantial presence in Europe, why single out HAL?

In terms of being sold a bill of goods, I beg your indulgence and differ with your conclusions.

For most people traveling in Europe, hotels and food are their primary costs. The Marriott in Rome is going for about $788 USD for an ordinary room. This does not include taxes. The sky is the limit as it relates to food and most people do not eat all their meals in fast food establishments.

It's been possible to snag a decent balcony cabin for about $150-175 p/p, per day, in prime time. As we all know, this includes food, transporation and entertainment. It's probably reasonable that one can save about 50-75% of the base cost of a land trip, more, if willing to accept an inside or outside cabin.

Given most folk traveling to Europe do not do so, to sit in their hotel rooms or cabins, everything else is indeed going to cost. Tours, car rentals, shopping and so on always add up. But when one is saving so much by cruising, it's not the dent it might otherwise be.

HaL seems to be doing reasonably well in Europe, this summer. Most of July and August are sold out. The ships are full. The wine is flowing. And people are taking advantage of the most cost effeciaent way of vacationing in Europe.[/quote]

Ahoy!

It not the cruises costs but the 5-10 days either pre or post cruise touring in Europe that will "set one back" and often times will equate the cost of the cruise itself. JMO

Be and stay well.

Bon Voyage & Good Health!
Bob:)

[Cruising-along]

We're CCL stock newbies, just bought 100 shares yesterday when it was at $33.20.

Could someone give me the contact info where we need to fax proof to HAL in order to get OBC for our next cruise?

Thanks so much!

[DesertDogs]

[LEFT][FONT=Garamond-Light-SC700][SIZE=1][COLOR=#231f20]Here is the fax number from the Carnival Corp website:[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][/LEFT]

[LEFT][SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light-SC700][COLOR=#231f20]Holland America Line[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]
[FONT=Garamond-Light][SIZE=1][COLOR=#231f20]World Cruise Reservations[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]
[SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light][COLOR=#231f20]300 Elliott Avenue West[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light][COLOR=#231f20]Seattle, WA 98119[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light][COLOR=#231f20]Tel 800-522-3399[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE]
[SIZE=1][FONT=Garamond-Light][COLOR=#231f20]Fax 206-281-0627[/COLOR][/FONT][/SIZE][/LEFT]

[Cruising-along]

Thank you DesertDogs :)

[hartjanet]

Don't forget to give them all your contact information, reservation number, ship, dates and desination. I did that a week or so ago, gave it a few days and then called to confirm they got it. They assured me all was fine and that our OBC was recorded. It's a nice little tax-free perk. I know we will enjoy having a $250 credit on our next cruise!

[hammybee]

[quote name='prescottbob']Ahoy!

It not the cruises costs but the 5-10 days either pre or post cruise touring in Europe that will "set one back" and often times will equate the cost of the cruise itself. JMO

Be and stay well.

Bon Voyage & Good Health!
Bob:)[/quote]

I understand. But how is this HAL's fault? ;)

One could take the risk and fly in on the day of departure and do BTB sails and then return home on embarkation day. Or, how about sailing in the Norwegian Fjords, one of the most scenic place anywhere and never setting foot off the ship. Cruising is probably the most cost effective way to travel in Europe without a back pack.

[localady]

[quote name='hammybee']I understand. But how is this HAL's fault? ;)

One could take the risk and fly in on the day of departure and do BTB sails and then return home on embarkation day. Or, how about sailing in the Norwegian Fjords, one of the most scenic place anywhere and never setting foot off the ship. Cruising is probably the most cost effective way to travel in Europe without a back pack.[/quote]

[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3][COLOR=blue]Absolutely right HammyBee!:D [/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3][COLOR=blue][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3][COLOR=blue]DH and I are planning on taking a 28 day transatlantic on the Oosterdam next year. Our per day cost for an SY cabin for the 28 days in under $200 dollars per person. I know we couldn't get by on $400 per day in Europe and see it in the style we choose.........;) :D [/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3][COLOR=blue][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]