Haha. I love your "green bananas" analogy.
No, your guess about the raised prices before FIP is inaccurate in our case. Although, on some itineraries, it might be more accurate. Our booking went up in price by about 30% 8 months after booking; 52% 16 months after booking, etc., etc. I'm one of those people who just has to look, whether it's good or bad news. 😉
We purchase adequate insurance, so your analogy doesn't fit here.