Should I book as soon as Delta's Window opens?

[1stTimeCruiser2008]

Our cruise is scheduled for next March...I need to fly from Minneapolis, MN to Miami Saturday March 9th - Sunday March 17th.

 

I know it's peak season and it's the weekend but it's still about $200 more pp than last year. $680 pp is a lot to spend:eek:. Should I wait to see if it comes down a little? The window is just opening for Delta. I can't imagine it going up even more this far out??:confused:

 

I've looked at Fort Lauderdale hoping that would be cheaper but only by about $30 pp. Fort Myers is about $150 less pp. I am definitely considering that but driving 2-3 hrs after a 3-4 hr flight sucks!

 

I'm confused and need advice.

 

Thanks!!!

[Ashland]

I wouldn't buy my air when the bookings first open...but would start watching...using an online alert like Yapta or one of the many other's..I usually end up at approx 6-8 months out for my March air from LAX-FLL and usually FLL is less than MIA for our spring break cruise..good luck !!

Edited April 20, 2012 by Ashland

[vwrestler171]

What are flights a cpl weeks before yours going for? My flights came out outrageously high, but 2-3 weeks later they dropped and then shot back up

[parody]

Should I wait to see if it comes down a little?

I'm confused and need advice.

 

To help answer this question, one may want to look at the volatility of historical airfares in the market of interest. (Of course, nobody has a firm handle on future fuel costs which then becomes a big random variable.) The historical fare charts on Farecompare do not seem to exist for the moment, so I would suggest http://www.faredetective.com/farehistory/index.php.

[Azulann]

Keep tracking the price for awhile. I tracked fare from MSP to FLL for a Dec departure for one month after the dates were released. Then booked it because it was not coming down and I wanted a direct flight in the early morning because of the winter weather.

 

Currently,looking for a fare from MSP to Tampa for april/may. The fare is $150.00 more than I paid last November for any dates.Been tracking for over a month.

 

I think the lower fare for Fort Meyers is because Sun Country has direct flights during the high season in direct competition with Delta.

Good luck and have a great cruise.

[Zach1213]

I am a firm believer, as a frequent flier, that unless you are booking with miles, booking a flight the first day it's available on a legacy carrier (so, almost a year out) is ridiculous. I can't imagine any airline offering their absolute cheapest/"best" fares on the first day.

 

As others have said, start tracking, but don't buy yet.

[1stTimeCruiser2008]

To further complicate matters I am going to be using a companion fare if possible. I'm a delta credit card member and get one each year...but I won't actually get it until some time in May...maybe June. I looked back and I actually booked our trip in the beginning of June last year.

 

I think the fare category has to be U, L or T. Does anyone know what that means? Right now the fares to and from Fort Myers are U and L. How does that work? Are there a certain number of seats at that category and then it changes? Very confusion:confused:

[1stTimeCruiser2008]

What are flights a cpl weeks before yours going for? My flights came out outrageously high, but 2-3 weeks later they dropped and then shot back up

 

 

I just checked and they've all gone up for Feb weekends by more than $100 pp:(

[FlyerTalker]

I think the fare category has to be U, L or T. Does anyone know what that means? Right now the fares to and from Fort Myers are U and L. How does that work? Are there a certain number of seats at that category and then it changes? Very confusion:confused:

The various letters indicate the fare buckets for a particular flight. On Delta, the coach buckets go like this: Y B M H Q K L U T E

 

Y is the highest and represents full-fare, fully refundable coach. As you move down the line, you get more restrictions and less inventory. In general, the lowest buckets sell out first, forcing purchases into the higher-priced buckets. Also, not all buckets are used on all flights; in particular, the E bucket is a new development and comes with some really different restrictions including the inability to reserve seats, even for top-tier elites.

 

I find it interesting that it would require the use of the lowest buckets -- are you sure that it isn't really saying that you can't use it for those fares (which is the case for many mileage upgrades on DL)?

 

As for fares to Ft. Myers -- there are most assuredly higher buckets available. They may just not be showing up on your searches. Use the main DL flight reservation page and then use the search by fare class radio button and dropdown box. You will see the various buckets and can use that to restrict to applicable fares.

 

Finally, airlines use inventory in the various buckets to maximize revenue for each flight. In effect, there are multiple set prices for tickets and the airline's revenue management department manipulates the inventories to both induce demand and to maximize the overall yield for the flight. It's a bunch of black magic, secret algorithms and counter-intuitive economics all wrapped together.

[tulch]

Have you also checked fares on Sun Country, Southwest and AirTran They often beat Delta on competitive routes from the Twin Cities. You also can almost always find a cheaper fare to Orlando. If you have AARP, AutoClub or some other discount, you should be able to get a reasonable discount on a rental car. I believe that Orlando is no more than 3 hours from almost any port. You would want to check whether drop-off and pick-up are from the pier or from the airport.

[Ashland]

The various letters indicate the fare buckets for a particular flight. On Delta, the coach buckets go like this: Y B M H Q K L U T E

 

Y is the highest and represents full-fare, fully refundable coach. As you move down the line, you get more restrictions and less inventory. In general, the lowest buckets sell out first, forcing purchases into the higher-priced buckets. Also, not all buckets are used on all flights; in particular, the E bucket is a new development and comes with some really different restrictions including the inability to reserve seats, even for top-tier elites.

 

I find it interesting that it would require the use of the lowest buckets -- are you sure that it isn't really saying that you can't use it for those fares (which is the case for many mileage upgrades on DL)?

 

As for fares to Ft. Myers -- there are most assuredly higher buckets available. They may just not be showing up on your searches. Use the main DL flight reservation page and then use the search by fare class radio button and dropdown box. You will see the various buckets and can use that to restrict to applicable fares.

 

Finally, airlines use inventory in the various buckets to maximize revenue for each flight. In effect, there are multiple set prices for tickets and the airline's revenue management department manipulates the inventories to both induce demand and to maximize the overall yield for the flight. It's a bunch of black magic, secret algorithms and counter-intuitive economics all wrapped together.

My DL companion certificate says "Seats are limited in L,U,T class of service".

[1stTimeCruiser2008]

The various letters indicate the fare buckets for a particular flight. On Delta, the coach buckets go like this: Y B M H Q K L U T E

 

Y is the highest and represents full-fare, fully refundable coach. As you move down the line, you get more restrictions and less inventory. In general, the lowest buckets sell out first, forcing purchases into the higher-priced buckets. Also, not all buckets are used on all flights; in particular, the E bucket is a new development and comes with some really different restrictions including the inability to reserve seats, even for top-tier elites.

 

I find it interesting that it would require the use of the lowest buckets -- are you sure that it isn't really saying that you can't use it for those fares (which is the case for many mileage upgrades on DL)?

 

As for fares to Ft. Myers -- there are most assuredly higher buckets available. They may just not be showing up on your searches. Use the main DL flight reservation page and then use the search by fare class radio button and dropdown box. You will see the various buckets and can use that to restrict to applicable fares.

 

Finally, airlines use inventory in the various buckets to maximize revenue for each flight. In effect, there are multiple set prices for tickets and the airline's revenue management department manipulates the inventories to both induce demand and to maximize the overall yield for the flight. It's a bunch of black magic, secret algorithms and counter-intuitive economics all wrapped together.

 

Thanks...you're explanation really helps. It's SO complicated. How do you know all of this? Do you work in the industry?

 

Here's what it says about using the companion ticket:

Restrictions:

Redemption is available only on delta.com. The certificate cannot be combined with another offer. Both passengers must be booked at the same time, in the same class of service and in the same record. Seats are only available in L, U, T classes of service and may not be available on all flights or markets.

[1stTimeCruiser2008]

Have you also checked fares on Sun Country, Southwest and AirTran They often beat Delta on competitive routes from the Twin Cities. You also can almost always find a cheaper fare to Orlando. If you have AARP, AutoClub or some other discount, you should be able to get a reasonable discount on a rental car. I believe that Orlando is no more than 3 hours from almost any port. You would want to check whether drop-off and pick-up are from the pier or from the airport.

 

I've always had good luck with Delta and I would look at other lines but I have a companion ticket to use and 40,000 miles...so I think based on that Delta will end up being the best for us even if the other airlines are cheaper.:rolleyes: But it is something to consider for future trips....

[Ashland]

Thanks...you're explanation really helps. It's SO complicated. How do you know all of this? Do you work in the industry?

 

Here's what it says about using the companion ticket:

Restrictions:

Redemption is available only on delta.com. The certificate cannot be combined with another offer. Both passengers must be booked at the same time, in the same class of service and in the same record. Seats are only available in L, U, T classes of service and may not be available on all flights or markets.

Are their different restrictions on certain companion certificates :confused: Because mine specifically says..."Seats are limited in L,U,T class of service" not "only" available... the rest of the wording in mine is the same as yours :confused:

[FlyerTalker]

Thanks...you're explanation really helps. It's SO complicated. How do you know all of this? Do you work in the industry?

Let's just say that DL gets more revenue from me than from most Americans. Experience over the years.

Here's what it says about using the companion ticket:

Restrictions:

Redemption is available only on delta.com. The certificate cannot be combined with another offer. Both passengers must be booked at the same time, in the same class of service and in the same record. Seats are only available in L, U, T classes of service and may not be available on all flights or markets.

Are their different restrictions on certain companion certificates :confused: Because mine specifically says..."Seats are limited in L,U,T class of service" not "only" available... the rest of the wording in mine is the same as yours :confused:

Seems like there is some difference here....either the certs are not the same or there's a typing/reading error.

 

I would lean to the wording of Ashland as that makes more business sense. That way, there would be less redemption with lower priced fares. But I'm not saying that the truth....DL has been known to do some boneheaded things in the promotion area.

[1stTimeCruiser2008]

Seems like there is some difference here....either the certs are not the same or there's a typing/reading error.

 

I would lean to the wording of Ashland as that makes more business sense. That way, there would be less redemption with lower priced fares. But I'm not saying that the truth....DL has been known to do some boneheaded things in the promotion area.

 

I copied and pasted mine...no typing/reading error but it is weird that they are different

Edited April 21, 2012 by 1stTimeCruiser2008

[Ashland]

I copied and pasted mine...no typing/reading error but it is weird that they are different

Hmmm..Must be because I read and reread and reread mine and so did DH...and that's what mine says ;):confused::)

[PRWeezer]

If you are trying to use a companion certificate (you also mentioned miles) then as an earlier poster said, you may want to lock it in as early as you can, once you have the certificate. It's similar to booking a flight on SkyMiles, there isn't always award inventory. I too get those certificates from AMEX every year (from 2 different cards) and recall only using it once, because there wasn't availability for the dates I was trying to book. The way I see it, if the second ticket is 'free' with the companion certificate (or some are $99 or a similar low cost) I look at the total cost, divided by 2 people. That might justify booking earlier to secure the award ticket, even if you might hope the price will drop.

 

Then again, award inventory sometimes opens up much closer to the flight. But for a trip you have already booked a year out, that's not a risk I would recommend. Since you have to wait another month or so to get the certificate, I would check fares again then to make a decision.

 

And I'm sure you've considered this already, but factor the cost of your rental car into your total price if you fly to an alternate airport...and the cost of your time, willingness to be on the road longer, etc. etc. I tend to value time over hassle, but of course even I have limits on that if the price difference is significant enough.

 

Good luck!

[PRWeezer]

I find it interesting that it would require the use of the lowest buckets -- are you sure that it isn't really saying that you can't use it for those fares (which is the case for many mileage upgrades on DL)?

 

Finally, airlines use inventory in the various buckets to maximize revenue for each flight. In effect, there are multiple set prices for tickets and the airline's revenue management department manipulates the inventories to both induce demand and to maximize the overall yield for the flight. It's a bunch of black magic, secret algorithms and counter-intuitive economics all wrapped together.

 

I can see the L-U-T requirement making sense in this way (but only if it applies to the companion ticket): one can only redeem the companion certificate when seats at those fare buckets remain. As with award inventory, they're not going to give away a seat for free if only full Y inventory is left and they think they could sell that seat at full cost. But if plenty of the cheap seats remain, they're more willing to give it away...if that makes sense. To me it's vague if the 'original' ticket has to be L-U-T also or if by 'class of service' they mean both tickets have to be in the same cabin (coach vs. first).

 

I recall one of my AMEX 'free companion' deals required the paid ticket to be at a higher coach fare. This was with my Business Platinum AMEX and my memory could be fuzzy on that since I pretty much ignore them (hard to use per earlier post). But the rationale did make sense to me, from a revenue management standpoint, that they would give me that 'free' ticket, as long as the paid ticket wasn't at the lowest coach fare. The OP might want to check for similar small-print language on the 'original' ticket.

 

But as you suggest, I don't have enough background in voodoo economics to even begin to think for DL's revenue management department. :cool:

[newfielover]

Hi, I am in the same position as you. I plan on flying from Mpls on Saturday March 9th (Allure sails on Sunday) and return on Sunday March 17th. This past March I flew into FLL and spent the night there and my flight was much cheaper than the $789 that Delta wants this morning. I have a $400 travel voucher to use from Delta, so I will fly with them. I guess I will keep on waiting like others have been saying. Or, do I look into flying into Miami and figuring out hotels, transportation etc. FLL is just so easy with hotel and shuttle from airport on Saturday, pier on Sunday and then taxi for FLL airport on Sunday.

[4774Papa]

Our cruise is scheduled for next March...I need to fly from Minneapolis, MN to Miami Saturday March 9th - Sunday March 17th.

 

I know it's peak season and it's the weekend but it's still about $200 more pp than last year. $680 pp is a lot to spend:eek:. Should I wait to see if it comes down a little? The window is just opening for Delta. I can't imagine it going up even more this far out??:confused:

 

I've looked at Fort Lauderdale hoping that would be cheaper but only by about $30 pp. Fort Myers is about $150 less pp. I am definitely considering that but driving 2-3 hrs after a 3-4 hr flight sucks!

 

I'm confused and need advice.

 

Thanks!!!

I have a Delta Skymiles AMex card and try to fly Delta whenever possible. First, I check Kayak for all airline prices, then Delta.

 

I would not buy your tickets that early. I have see rates drop by 25% 5 months before the flight and then back up, then drop again. Monitor your flights on Tuesday every week, even more if possible. I would not wait to buy with less than 60 days to fly.

[2boyzmom]

Since we always cruise Presidents week or Easter week, I know prices do not ever decrease, so we book 330 days out. Last year paid 220r/t NY to MIA. This year for next March paid $320 r/t . Returning Sunday after Easter recess killed it this time. I have seen what waiting does to my fellow cruisers that week and it never ends up good :(

[1stTimeCruiser2008]

Since we always cruise Presidents week or Easter week, I know prices do not ever decrease, so we book 330 days out. Last year paid 220r/t NY to MIA. This year for next March paid $320 r/t . Returning Sunday after Easter recess killed it this time. I have seen what waiting does to my fellow cruisers that week and it never ends up good :(

My companion ticket is late this year so I may have to wait another week

:( If the price is less than $500 I'm going to book right away. I've already seen some of the L and U tickets disappear so someone must be booking.

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

To help answer this question, one may want to look at the volatility of historical airfares in the market of interest. (Of course, nobody has a firm handle on future fuel costs which then becomes a big random variable.) The historical fare charts on Farecompare do not seem to exist for the moment, so I would suggest http://www.faredetective.com/farehistory/index.php.

That is a great site ..

[FlyerTalker]

To help answer this question, one may want to look at the volatility of historical airfares in the market of interest. (Of course, nobody has a firm handle on future fuel costs which then becomes a big random variable.) The historical fare charts on Farecompare do not seem to exist for the moment, so I would suggest http://www.faredetective.com/farehistory/index.php.

It appears that FareCompare has taken a turn in its marketing approach, moving more to serving the airlines, rather than the consumer. Several very useful features at FC are now gone for good, including the historical charts. RIP.