Air fare question

[vawalkers]

We are considering a cruise out of San Juan, PR in May 2019. Because of where we live in Virginia, we can fly out of Raleigh Durham, nc, Richmond, VA, or the Washington DC area airports. Do the fares generally go down after Christmas? Is there a tool that helps keep track of price changes for certain flights? Last year we scored some good fares out of IAD, but what I have seen so far, current rates are much higher. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

[parody]

Generally, air fares to San Juan do go down after Christmas, but it's not like they go down to their lowest levels and stay there.

To get a good idea of the variability over time check out this site:  https://www.faredetective.com/farehistory/flights-from-Durham_Raleigh-RDU-to-San_Juan-SJU.html

[CruiserBruce]

Nobody can predict if the prices will go down, go up, or stay the same. It is all about supply and demand, and every day's flights are different. The airlines use  complex revenue management systems, and you can't out think them.

 

I will say that sailing out of San Juan in May is not a high demand time, but your flight is less than 6 months away. Usually the cheapest seats have already been sold.

[thinfool]

If you haven't already, try using http://matrix.itasoftware.com for thoro fare searches.  

Note: you cannot book a flight at this site.

[FlyerTalker]

Also, note that discussions about fare pricing often conflate two different time frames.

 

The first is when the flight will be taken.

 

The second is when the ticket is being purchased.

 

Both are factors in what the pricing dynamics will yield, and any discussion that doesn't make clear the distinct differences leaves out essential information. 

[parody]

FlyerTalker raises a good issue.  If you are interested in the when and where, see the site mentioned earlier.  Others who have examined how far in advance to purchase an air fare, showed this graph.

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2018 by parody

[Globaliser]

17 hours ago, parody said:

Others who have examined how far in advance to purchase an air fare, showed this graph.

 

However, when looking at that graph it's always wise to remember the old one about the statisticians who drowned while crossing a river that was, on average, only two feet deep.

 

Although that graph may be an interesting exercise in averages, the corresponding graph for each specific flight on each specific route on each specific travel date will be different. And there is no way of knowing the final shape of each corresponding graph will look like until the moment the aircraft pushes back from the terminal building on departure.

[bakersdozen12]

On 12/24/2018 at 12:47 PM, parody said:

FlyerTalker raises a good issue.  If you are interested in the when and where, see the site mentioned earlier.  Others who have examined how far in advance to purchase an air fare, showed this graph.

 

 

 

 

These graphs are 5 years old. I’m not sure they are relevant anymore. Flights will only go down in price if they are not selling. From my experience, airlines don’t have much of a problem selling flights these days. Especially to popular places, like San Juan. I find it’s better to book flights as soon as the itineraries are released, before prices go up. 

[alcpa1]

Air service to San Juan has been marginally cut since last year's hurricanes.

If you are comfortable with a fare and convenient airport and schedule then I'd suggest you book now.

[cruisin lady ca]

Look at Skyscanner dot com.  Here's another "pretty" graph that attempts to predict the best month in which to purchase airline tickets this year.  Time will tell whether the data - and suggestion that January is the best month in which to purchase airline tickets this year - is correct.  

[fbgd]

On 12/25/2018 at 5:50 AM, Globaliser said:

 

However, when looking at that graph it's always wise to remember the old one about the statisticians who drowned while crossing a river that was, on average, only two feet deep.

 

I'm just going to re-quote this every time someone pulls a pointless "airfare graph" out of their posterior.